Let's do a research

sunnydzt · Jan 3, 2006

How often do you play?
What's the house rule?
How much is your bank roll?
What's your spread?
How much have you lost and win?
If you play everyday, and win $100 per day at a $5 to $200 table. If your spread is 1-5 units, when you win 5 times which would be 5 days, then you can play $25 per hand still 1-5 units, still at $5 to $200 table, still win $100 per day but it would be cost you less time to win the $100.
I know this could go either way but doesnt it worth a try?
If you don't plat you can not win, if the flat betting works then everyone is winning. Once I used $11 cashed out $110 at a $5 - $200 table 5 dacks late surrender was offered. The point is win $100 isn't hard at all.

zengrifter · Jan 3, 2006

Lets start with YOU! Do you know "basic strategy"? zg

E-town-guy · Jan 4, 2006

I think Sunny is drunk

goodh2o1 · Jan 5, 2006

I will play 2-5 times a week.

No surrrender, bank is $3,000 been back playing about 3 weeks. I usually bet 1-3 units. My units are around $50 on average, but I'm slowing working that up. I'm up to $3,800 as of today.

I try to count. I usually will lose count after 2-3 decks and then I just use
basic strategy.

I have a very simple system, and usually don't have to rely on counting.

I see the deck as a regular playground swing. The deck will swing forward (plus for the player-units up) and swing back (minus for the player-units down). I get off the swing at the first opportunity to win 2 units.

Based on this system, I bring 10 units for betting and I bet that I can win 2 units before I lose 10 units.

If I win 2 units on the first hand I cash out and do not play the rest of the deck. In fact I actually leave the casino and go home.

The reason I do this is even under the best of circumstances, the best win rate I have found is 1-3 units per hour over the long haul.

If I can win 2 units in 1 hand why would I want to play any longer unless your playing for the action???

I sometimes play more, such as today. I bet $65 on the first hand, won that
pressed the second hand to $80 won that and reduced to $15, lost the hand and colored up. Plus $130, $5 buck tip and out the door in just a few minutes.

I did this 6 years ago and ran $300 into $2200, before going on tilt. At that time I was only betting $25 units and trying to win 1-2 units.

The main problem is getting the unit bet high enough to justify quitting at 1-2units.

I look at quitting after the 1st or 2nd hand with a 1-2 unit win as the guy who wins the first hand on poker night and says "I'm out of here". I don't owe the casino action, I'm there to win money.

Well theres my 2 cents.

goodh2o1

zengrifter · Jan 5, 2006

goodh2o1 said:

I will play 2-5 times a week, bank is $3,000 been back playing about 3 weeks. I usually bet 1-3 units. My units are around $50 on average, but I'm slowing working that up. I'm up to $3,800 as of today. I usually will lose count after 2-3 decks and then I just use basic strategy. I have a very simple system, and usually don't have to rely on counting. I see the deck as a regular playground swing. The deck will swing forward (plus for the player-units up) and swing back (minus for the player-units down). I get off the swing at the first opportunity to win 2 units. I don't owe the casino action, I'm there to win money. Well theres my 2 cents.

Statistically speaking, I estimate that your approach to the game will tap-out your bank in about 50hrs of play, give or take 40hrs. Happy swinging. zg

rookie789 · Jan 5, 2006

What a strategy

goodH,

Good luck with you'r strategy but as insurance don't forget to give your job application to the local gas station to pump gas, that may pay more in the long run.

Quinc · Jan 6, 2006

goodh2o1 said:

I will play 2-5 times a week.

No surrrender, bank is $3,000 been back playing about 3 weeks. I usually bet 1-3 units. My units are around $50 on average, but I'm slowing working that up. I'm up to $3,800 as of today.

I try to count. I usually will lose count after 2-3 decks and then I just use
basic strategy.

I have a very simple system, and usually don't have to rely on counting.

I see the deck as a regular playground swing. The deck will swing forward (plus for the player-units up) and swing back (minus for the player-units down). I get off the swing at the first opportunity to win 2 units.

Based on this system, I bring 10 units for betting and I bet that I can win 2 units before I lose 10 units.

If I win 2 units on the first hand I cash out and do not play the rest of the deck. In fact I actually leave the casino and go home.

The reason I do this is even under the best of circumstances, the best win rate I have found is 1-3 units per hour over the long haul.

If I can win 2 units in 1 hand why would I want to play any longer unless your playing for the action???

I sometimes play more, such as today. I bet $65 on the first hand, won that
pressed the second hand to $80 won that and reduced to $15, lost the hand and colored up. Plus $130, $5 buck tip and out the door in just a few minutes.

I did this 6 years ago and ran $300 into $2200, before going on tilt. At that time I was only betting $25 units and trying to win 1-2 units.

The main problem is getting the unit bet high enough to justify quitting at 1-2units.

I look at quitting after the 1st or 2nd hand with a 1-2 unit win as the guy who wins the first hand on poker night and says "I'm out of here". I don't owe the casino action, I'm there to win money.

Well theres my 2 cents.

goodh2o1

i have a freind who plays alot like that.. he does really well probly makes an average of 1000- 2000 a month. infact in a gambling book about cheaters (i cant remember the name of it right now).. anyway the whole chapter 11 is writin on him..

goodh2o1 · Jan 6, 2006

Thanks for the info Quinc, don't know about the cheaters part,

Well for years and years I read the books and did the count and mindlessly sat there and said to myself "Over the longhaul you'll win".

Well it didn't happen, I lost my ass trying to count cards and play perfectly.

What I saw was a perfect pattern while playing a shoe and I would be 5-10 units up and finish 1 or 2 up. As I continued to play, I'd be 5-10 units down and finish one or 2 down. Based on my personal play I found that I was up at some point during the day nearly 100 percent of the time when I played. The longer I played the more I lost, but at some point I was up nearly 100 percent of the time.

So based on being up nearly at some point nearly 100 percent of the time, I found I merely needed to bet at a level of which will allow me to make money by winning 1-2 units.

Think about how many times all of you are a bunch of units up and you walk away with a much smaller total. I just go for playing a bunch of shoes and I just want to skim 1 or 2 units per shoe. It is a hassle and you are up and down alot, but the effort is worth it.

Oh, I got to go I have to get ready for my interview at the gas station.

+315 yesterday
+210 today

goodh2o1

zengrifter · Jan 6, 2006

goodh2o1 said:

What I saw was a perfect pattern while playing a shoe and I would be 5-10 units up and finish 1 or 2 up.... So based on being up nearly at some point nearly 100 percent of the time, I found I merely needed to bet at a level of which will allow me to make money by winning 1-2 units.... Think about how many times all of you are a bunch of units up and you walk away with a much smaller total. I just go for playing a bunch of shoes and I just want to skim 1 or 2 units per shoe. It is a hassle and you are up and down alot, but the effort is worth it.

I beleive that he believes it... BUT the rest of you FOGGITABOUTIT! Its bullsh*t. zg

sunnydzt · Jan 6, 2006

goodh2o1 said:

Thank you for your good reply. However, I do not see the advantage of your system. You are saying that if you win 2 units then you will be on your way home. You also said you bet 1-3 units, every unit is around $50, and you bring 10 units...
So, you are taking $500 to win the $100 and thats based on if you can win 2
units in a shoe. My question is how much lose will make you stop? All your 10 units? People usually say when they lose 5 hands in a row then they change the table... what about you?

Mikeaber · Jan 6, 2006

Staples

I still maintain that we should all just go to Staples and buy an "Easy Button."

goodh2o1 · Jan 6, 2006

I've quit and moved tables after 2 losing hands, but usually 4-6 units of loss will get me to move along.

If playing basic strategy is a 50/50 bet, I figure I can win 2 units on a consistent basis before they can get 10 units from me.

It is very simple and your win rate is better than you can ever imagine.

However, I got the job pumping gas so I gotta go.:laugh:

goodh2o1

zengrifter · Jan 7, 2006

goodh2o1 said:

This is the kind of thinking that denotes "statistical illiteracy." zg

goodh2o1 · Jan 7, 2006

Well if this is "statistical illiteracy" why didn't you answer my earlier question
about the highs and lows of a six deck shoe.

They warned me about you hardnosed blackjack snobs(zengrifter) :whip: , if you don't do their way its not the right way. It sounds like your more of shill for the casinos than an actual gambler.

My only contention is that the high and low of a six deck shoe is actually better than the expected win rate of a six deck shoe. When you choose to exploit that advantage you win at a higher rate. Thus you don't have to count as much and you win more money with far less time at the table.

Hey, I can't spend alot of time at the table I have to pump gas to make more money.

As a result I do what works! How is it working for the rest of you???? Are any of you making any money, the questions was for all of you to tell about how much you bet, where you bet bankroll, conditions.

Where are all the people who make money counting cards and playing their hands perfectly???????

gooodh2o1

Mikeaber · Jan 7, 2006

Analysis

I ran this through my simulator using the following criteria:

6-deck standard game (das, 3:2, doa, h-17, etc)
Unit = $50
Quit when up 2 units
Quit when $500 lost

I ran this setting a session at 9999 hands to be sure I didn't get on a choppy session and bail out before I either won $100 or lost $500. I set it to play 100 times.

As you might expect, $100 was won much more often than $500 was lost. However, in the end, the simulator shows the Net to be negative $1,100.00.

I ran this a second time and ended up with the same trend in frequency of winning sessions but the Net loss over 100 sessions was -$2325.00.

So I ran it a third time: Net overall win of $175 after 100 sessions but it's interesting to note that in this simulation, there were 4 losing sessions and one winning session to start things off for a net initial loss of -$2,025.00.

My suspicion is that according to the trends of winning $100 sessions, that you could go for several sessions as a winner before losing 5 times what previous sessions won (you are risking 5 times as much in loss as you stand to gain when you win) in ONE session. Eventually, it catches up with you.

matteotm · Jan 15, 2006

mike can you send me that simulator program?
it sounds cool

email is [email protected]

Mikeaber · Jan 15, 2006

matteotm said:

I wish that I could Matt. It is no longer available as far as I know. It is "secured" by a key and I no longer have the "key file" file.

I might be able to locate an old eMail from the author and if so, will try to contact him when I get back home (in Vegas now). It's nothing nearly as good as come of the other higher priced simulators, but it does give good simulations for simple progression betting and the cost was under $10.

Let's do a research

sunnydzt

Member

zengrifter

Banned

E-town-guy

Well-Known Member

goodh2o1

Member

zengrifter

Banned

rookie789

Well-Known Member

Quinc

Well-Known Member

goodh2o1

Member

zengrifter

Banned

sunnydzt

Member

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member

goodh2o1

Member

zengrifter

Banned

goodh2o1

Member

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member

matteotm

Well-Known Member

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member