Lucky Ladies is awful

[Automatic Monkey]

OK, I'll bite. Why would you sequence a queen - even the queen of hearts which we know the expectation is X (page 66 of Exhibit CAA) when you could sequence an ace and bet 10 times as much for a much higher expectation?

Anyone with good sequencing abilities is not going to waste their time on Lucky Ladies.

Not quite. Let's say there was no Lucky Ladies bet and you sequenced the queens anyway. The fact that the queen is a 10 value card gives you a 15% advantage when you know it is going to be your first card, as opposed to 51%. This will allow a well-capitalized player to get a max bet out on the main bet anyway.

Now suppose we are betting Lucky Ladies. While pairing your ace up with a 10 gives you a <150% return, pairing your queen up with a 10 gives you a >400% return on the Lucky Ladies bet. If you are not well-capitalized you can get more bang for your buck on the sidebet. Assuming I could get a black chip down on the sidebet, if I had to pick one or the other I would pick the queens.

 

[Pro21]

I know very few players who are good at sequencing. That is why in cases in the past when people have found good sequencing games they have contacted me to partner on the games. I find it hard to believe that someone who is good at sequencing would not have an adequate bankroll to bet $1000 into an ace.

PS: The correct kelly bet into an ace can be found in... well you know.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I know very few players who are good at sequencing. That is why in cases in the past when people have found good sequencing games they have contacted me to partner on the games. I find it hard to believe that someone who is good at sequencing would not have an adequate bankroll to bet $1000 into an ace.

He might have the bankroll, but the table may not accept $1000 bets. You never know where you are going to find a dealer subpriming the shuffle and giving you an opportunity. I've dumped a tray with $100 bets at a $100 limit table.

You will also get yourself a lot more scrutiny with $1000 bets n aces than $100 bets on queens.

PS: The correct kelly bet into an ace can be found in... well you know.

There's a lot more to it than that, and the correct bet depends not only on the likelihood of receiving an ace, but the number of players at the table.

No one can predict an ace with 100% accuracy unless the dealer shows it to you. In a heads-up game, one extra card inserted in the sequence will give the ace to the dealer, and there are some shuffles where the probability of hitting a target is a toss-up between two adjacent positions. If this is the case, a 50/50 split of aces between you and the dealer still gives you an advantage, but that advantage is diluted down to jack-diddly-squat when you factor in the other variables associated with sequencing. I had another session once where I was confounded all night by the dealer getting my ace.:flame: That's variance for you, but your Kelly calculations have to take into account the added possibility of something much worse than you not getting your ace: the dealer getting it. A heads-up game can be another situation where the queens is better than the aces because the dealer isn't playing the sidebets and the differential between the value of the queen to you and to the dealer is increased.

 

[rukus]

You will also get yourself a lot more scrutiny with $1000 bets n aces than $100 bets on queens.

And this, my friends, is why we let the monkey out of the cage every once in a while. Jumping your bets, or calling in a bp, etc to bet big and then actually hitting the ace is a surefire way to get caught sequencing if it happens more than once or twice a session.

Auto, start charging for the morsels of monkey meal you dispense.

 

[zengrifter]

Just to clarify, I didn't buy CAA yet, sequencing the queens is something developed in the Monkey Lab.

Okay, then someone with BCCAA please review the LLs section and tell us what's new on the subject. Should I take Grosjean's bet? zg

 

[Pro21]

Jumping your bets, or calling in a bp, etc to bet big and then actually hitting the ace is a surefire way to get caught sequencing if it happens more than once or twice a session.

I guess that depends on where you play, and what your play looks like.

 

[Brock Windsor]

Okay, then someone with BCCAA please review the LLs section and tell us what's new on the subject. Should I take Grosjean's bet? zg

It includes the bet expectation with various count systems, expectation with next card info, shows how a perfect count would perform, and introduces a 'Ten Count' designed to trigger a bet when the density of 10's passes the 40% threshhold. While the research is informative, there is nothing that offers a huge increase in profit potential for an AP, after all this is a game with a very low max bet anywhere I've ever seen it. As to taking a bet from Exhibit CAA....
You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask off the old Lone Ranger
And you don't take a bet from Jim.
-BW

 

[bjcount]

As to taking a bet from Exhibit CAA....
You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask off the old Lone Ranger
And you don't take a bet from Jim.
-BW

Phrased so perfectly.

BJC