Pro21 said:
I know very few players who are good at sequencing. That is why in cases in the past when people have found good sequencing games they have contacted me to partner on the games. I find it hard to believe that someone who is good at sequencing would not have an adequate bankroll to bet $1000 into an ace.
He might have the bankroll, but the table may not accept $1000 bets. You never know where you are going to find a dealer subpriming the shuffle and giving you an opportunity. I've dumped a tray with $100 bets at a $100 limit table.
You will also get yourself a lot more scrutiny with $1000 bets n aces than $100 bets on queens.
Pro21 said:
PS: The correct kelly bet into an ace can be found in... well you know.
There's a lot more to it than that, and the correct bet depends not only on the likelihood of receiving an ace, but the number of players at the table.
No one can predict an ace with 100% accuracy unless the dealer shows it to you. In a heads-up game, one extra card inserted in the sequence will give the ace to the dealer, and there are some shuffles where the probability of hitting a target is a toss-up between two adjacent positions. If this is the case, a 50/50 split of aces between you and the dealer still gives you an advantage, but that advantage is diluted down to jack-diddly-squat when you factor in the other variables associated with sequencing. I had another session once where I was confounded all night by the dealer getting my ace.:flame: That's variance for you, but your Kelly calculations have to take into account the added possibility of something much worse than you not getting your ace: the dealer getting it. A heads-up game can be another situation where the queens is better than the aces because the dealer isn't playing the sidebets and the differential between the value of the queen to you and to the dealer is increased.
