Man, this "counting" stuff is hard.

[sagefr0g]

I pretty much just stick with the illustrius 18. Even THOSE don't come up that frequently, let alone a fairly unlike soft double down play.

....

lol your right. i just had to look up the I18, that A6v2 at tc +1 is so ingrained in my head that i thought it was an I18. i think i must have picked it up out of the gamemaster school indices. i don't split tens so i've replaced a few of the I18 with some that are in the gamemaster school indices.
but my point was comming from my experience. i mean before i even ever really knew for sure what a basic strategy departure (ie. the concept) was it was just ever becoming apparent to me that hey maybe this or that basic strategy play a'int the wisest thing to do at this or that point with respect to the pack left to be dealt composition. i remmember the first depature i learned was A8v6 at tc +1. i had guessed about it as you say and then the next day i learned it from what ever authority lol. but anyway i remmember being nervous as hell about playing it lol. but then a lot of the others that i learned from I18 or what ever i experienced the pre-guess thing as well.
but then i only play mainly one type of game six or eight deckers over and over again. and i think you play a wide variety of decks and games.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I pretty much just stick with the illustrius 18. Even THOSE don't come up that frequently, let alone a fairly unlike soft double down play.

Plus, I'm a little uncomfortable making index plays with an unbalanced count, especially negative indices, since those have migrated very far away from the pivot.

But guessing at indices can be super dangerous. A while back I was dealt a 14v10 in a super-high count. I would have though that the count was justify standing, but I hit anyway as a fallback. And if I'm reading Professional Blackjack right, the TC at which you'd stand with 14v10 doesn't exist (or at least it's over TC +10). And that's why, after the first time I started guessing at index plays, I realized that I had actually been playing like a complete crackhead.

One thing you have to watch out for with 1)positive indices 2) outside of the I-18 3)that involve doubling or splitting is that their added EV rarely justifies the risk. That's why I've made it a point never to learn them, so I won't be tempted to use them!

Instead I use index plays like DD 9 vs. 3 and DD 10 vs. 9 where you don't double. This both increases EV and reduces risk. If you want to have some fun, you can take your simulator and run indices for all the split and hard/soft double plays in double deck, see which ones are at reasonable negative counts and add those to your arsenal.

Stand on 14 vs. 10 is a legitimate play that comes up more than you'd expect in SD games. In fact, the CD basic strategy play for 77 vs. 10 is stand, in single deck. This being the case it should be intuitive that standing on any other 14 vs. 10 shouldn't be that extreme of an index, and it isn't. But not one you're likely to get to very often in a multi-deck game.

 

[sagefr0g]

One thing you have to watch out for with 1)positive indices 2) outside of the I-18 3)that involve doubling or splitting is that their added EV rarely justifies the risk. That's why I've made it a point never to learn them, so I won't be tempted to use them!

Instead I use index plays like DD 9 vs. 3 and DD 10 vs. 9 where you don't double. This both increases EV and reduces risk. If you want to have some fun, you can take your simulator and run indices for all the split and hard/soft double plays in double deck, see which ones are at reasonable negative counts and add those to your arsenal.

.......

in referance to the above just intuitively i'd want to be rather selective about what ones to not use and what ones to ignore for the positive departures. peronally playing multi deck so much i think i'd just go with most of them if i knew them since for one thing opportunities to bet up are rare to begin with and like you say these are rare EV events as well. i guess your getting into the risk averse stuff, where in my naivety i'm going with Schlesinger's idea it's like chicken soup for a dead man, what can it hurt sort of idea.
but the departures for the negative situations idea you refer to are to me definately of interest to me when i consider the playing conditions that i face.

 

[EasyRhino]

Of all your winnings, how much has been from bonus whoring and cashback coupons compared to money you've won from straight counting? I haven't read all your posts but it seems like you've struggled at the tables, at least as of recently.

The cashback/comps are a fairly minor factor. I mean, yeah, there was the recent $1k I won on a freeplay coupon, but besides that it's fairly minor. If I played a lot of machines, it would be a bigger deal. (If the USPS didn't lose $600 worth, it would be a bigger deal).

Online bonus-whoring is a different banana. However, I was inspired to do some back-of the envelope math on online bonus whoring winnings. Took some digging in my personal finance software to separate the online money from the B&M money. Anyway, it appears that bonus-whoring's contribution to my bankroll was... well, most of it. I think I cleared about $32k from online casinos. Compared to a current BR of $37,750, one would wonder why I bother counting cards at all.

Now, it's not that bad, as I have made a few minor withdrawals from the BR. Also, looking back, my very early efforts were remarkably lucky. Lots of fairly big wins with small bets and a smaller bankroll. That, combined with the bonus whoring, kicked me into a substantially higher betting regime... which is where I have begun to revert to the norm and catch up on my fair share of losses.

But still, it drives home how fundamentally silly it is to count cards with a profit motive.

One thing you have to watch out for with 1)positive indices 2) outside of the I-18 3)that involve doubling or splitting is that their added EV rarely justifies the risk.

Right, I've seen a lot of arguments by very smart people about avoiding those plays, or shifting the index to use them on a risk-adjustec basis. And I can vouch from personal experience that plays like doubling a 10v 10 or A (which is in the I18), can be pretty nerve-wracking. My personal ploppy opinion is that these concerns are overstated, unless your max bet is at the ragged edge of full-Kelly betting. But if you're already betting moderately conservatively, then stop being a pansyass and just go for it. (as long as you're not making a wild-ass guess at the index).

Instead I use index plays like DD 9 vs. 3 and DD 10 vs. 9 where you don't double.

Also fine, if you want to play like a pansyass

 

[jack.jackson]

Alot Depends on my BR.

Ill use RA Indices with plays such as splitting Xs multiple times, Insuring BJs,20, Insuring 1/4 my bet at 1/2 Index, Stand 88 vs X(provided no Sr) usually on max bets, on border line plays.

But, like I said it just depends on my BR.

 

[Kasi]

Stand on 14 vs. 10 is a legitimate play that comes up more than you'd expect in SD games. In fact, the CD basic strategy play for 77 vs. 10 is stand, in single deck. This being the case it should be intuitive that standing on any other 14 vs. 10 shouldn't be that extreme of an index, and it isn't. But not one you're likely to get to very often in a multi-deck game.

Standing on a 14 vs 10 has got be extremely high even in SD. Not sure I've ever even seen an index number for it. Maybe in some systems I guess. Gotta be more than TC+20 in Hi-Lo.

 

[Kasi]

But still, it drives home how fundamentally silly it is to count cards with a profit motive.

Interesting comment lol.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Standing on a 14 vs 10 has got be extremely high even in SD. Not sure I've ever even seen an index number for it. Maybe in some systems I guess. Gotta be more than TC+20 in Hi-Lo.

You'd be surprised. In UBZ the index is +8. Now you will get an RC of +8 about 2% of hands with RO6 pen and 2.5% with RO7. That's 2-3 times per hour.

 

[Kasi]

You'd be surprised. In UBZ the index is +8. Now you will get an RC of +8 about 2% of hands with RO6 pen and 2.5% with RO7. That's 2-3 times per hour.

Guess I am surprised lol but don't know UBZ. It's based on RC? Must have a much higher playing efficiency than Hi-Lo lol.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Guess I am surprised lol but don't know UBZ. It's based on RC? Must have a much higher playing efficiency than Hi-Lo lol.

It's somewhat higher, and it's an unbalanced RC system. I use it for pitch games.

CVData also gives no index for High-Low in a 6D game.

 

[EasyRhino]

Well, over the last week or so, I got to experience a bunch of variance.

The flow went like this: Big loss -> Big loss -> Big win -> Big loss -> Big win. There was very little breaking even to be done. Annoyingly, the big wins seemed to be concentrated on one particular local casino, I might be beating them up pretty bad. No amount of ratholing can disguise dumb luck.

The week was a net loss. Bankroll snapshot: almost $37k.

Random anecdote: One place had some sort of pit boss lunch hour going on, so PCs were moving in and out of the games like crazy (probably worse than a shift change). One of them was really hawking my play. None of the other PCs were doing anything similar, so I don't think I have a systemic problem at this joint, but it was a useful time to practice on my progression betting scheme.

Angsty Emotional Stuff: I was pretty demoralized when I started the week with two big losses (which followed a losing week, which followed a losing Vegas trip). While driving home, I had plenty of time to stew over them. And then I remembered what it was like stewing over losses in the old days (a year or so ago).

It was kind of like being comforted by an old friend. Losing still sucks. I think I'm still a little bit put off my increased betting levels. If I were to merely divide all the results by 10, then they'd reasonably compare to the swings I had with a $3000 bankroll. However, now, I'm winning or losing multiple paychecks at once. And the scary part is that I'm starting to get used to it.

What hasn't changed at all is being in the middle of a losing streak, and projecting the results into infinity, and seeing the ultimate tapout waiting for me. That part hasn't changed. Being in a streak still feels like it's going to last forever.

But what has definitely changed is this: When I was making my first few trips, I was so excited/scared going into a casino that I thought my heart was going to jump out of my chest (this might be what civilians feel when they go gambling). That feeling is now completely dead. Now, when I walk in the door, I'm just an unfeeling Terminator sent from the future to (potentially) extract a (potentially) unknown amount of money from the casinos.

Scary Story: Last week it got interesting at an Indian joint. Coming back from a bathroom break, I noticed an employee standing around who at first thought was a supervisor/manager, but then see the name tag identifying her as with the Gaming Commission, and I don't usually see those folks around. At first I thought "Oh that's cool, she's on my side." And then I thought "Wait, this is the Tribal Gaming Commission, she's not on my side!". Then I realized "Well, at best, the Gaming Commission would be a neutral party, but still, nothing good can come of this". The Gaming rep could have been there for any of a wide variety of perfectly reasonable reasons... but a few other possible reasons might have been James Grosjean/Ken Uston levels of badness. That combined with an apparant reconfiguration of security personnel around the pit, led me to think it was a good time to cut my session short.

Paranoia on my part? Almost definitely. But that's okay, I would have needed to end my session soon anyway.

... anyone want to cash some Indian casino chips for me?

 

[gustN]

BRs

Easy,

I can see you started this thread a long time ago by having trouble with getting the count in to practice. And now you say you have a ~$37k bankroll?

Just out of curiosity: What did you have back then? If it was alot less, have ju BlackJacked it up? Or maybe you build it on something else even before that? Poker?

I mean everyone has to start somewhere, but where does everyone gets the seed to sow there success from? I do pretty good on my paycheck but its not like I could grab 2k from a months check and hit the local casino. And I mean, 2k is not even close to a decent BR.

Is there any mortal person out there who has managed to build a decent BR from lets say 500-1k ("only") by counting cards?

I have been thinking about hitting 6 month of no clubbing, shopping, eating out, traveling or spend money AT ALL. Putting away cash for the roll and at the same time do a Rocky Balboa training at counting. Im not sure what my girlfriend (who I live with) would say about this though. Or who the person that will be sitting at the table with some of thet BR in front of himself will be, after that experience(?)

Or maybe I should become a wise guy?

+++++++
gustN

 

[mjbballar23]

Easy,

Is there any mortal person out there who has managed to build a decent BR from lets say 500-1k ("only") by counting cards?



Or maybe I should become a wise guy?

+++++++
gustN

I turned $200 into $8000 in less than a year with counting alone, granted i was able to find some really good games and got very lucky to have positive variance in the beginning but it was still straight counting that did it for me. I dont know if that qualifies as a decent BR or not.....

 

[gustN]

Nice one! Thanks for giving me hope! Well, 8k for me would be hell of a bankroll since it today is close to non-excisting

 

[zachs]

I turned $200 into $8000 in less than a year with counting alone, granted i was able to find some really good games and got very lucky to have positive variance in the beginning but it was still straight counting that did it for me. I dont know if that qualifies as a decent BR or not.....

Sending you a message, check your inbox. xD

 

[EasyRhino]

Started with $500 (really) and a $25 or $50 max bet. Had a lot of early positive luck, got it to $3.3k before first cashins from online bonus whoring appeared. That started the "great inflation" of March 07, where one cashouts combined with some big blackjack wins (my betting level was increasing each week) to bump it up to almost $20k.

(The online bonus whoring wasn't documented in this topic, although it did prove to be a much more consistent driver of profits. Started with probably a couple grand initially of that. (and before the invevitable question, I still think http://www.beatingbonuses.com is probably the best resource on the subject)

 

[sagefr0g]

.......
Is there any mortal person out there who has managed to build a decent BR from lets say 500-1k ("only") by counting cards?

......

started with $300 dollars. never devoted more than $300 to any one session.
made it to $7000.00 in 196 sessions from may05 to nov06. played mainly six deck s17daslsr circa 70%pen games using hi/lo mainly 1:8 spread at nickle tables. never was really behind but supplemented the roll about three times.

 

[sagefr0g]

..........
Angsty Emotional Stuff: I was pretty demoralized when I started the week with two big losses (which followed a losing week, which followed a losing Vegas trip). While driving home, I had plenty of time to stew over them. And then I remembered what it was like stewing over losses in the old days (a year or so ago).

It was kind of like being comforted by an old friend. Losing still sucks. I think I'm still a little bit put off my increased betting levels. If I were to merely divide all the results by 10, then they'd reasonably compare to the swings I had with a $3000 bankroll. However, now, I'm winning or losing multiple paychecks at once. And the scary part is that I'm starting to get used to it.

What hasn't changed at all is being in the middle of a losing streak, and projecting the results into infinity, and seeing the ultimate tapout waiting for me. That part hasn't changed. Being in a streak still feels like it's going to last forever.

But what has definitely changed is this: When I was making my first few trips, I was so excited/scared going into a casino that I thought my heart was going to jump out of my chest (this might be what civilians feel when they go gambling). That feeling is now completely dead. Now, when I walk in the door, I'm just an unfeeling Terminator sent from the future to (potentially) extract a (potentially) unknown amount of money from the casinos.
.......................
... anyone want to cash some Indian casino chips for me?

well i don't play at the levels you do lol but i sure do feel the same conflicts.
just can't shake the preminision that i'm gonna be one of the ones that loses the bank regardless of how low my ROR is. but still i'm on pins and needls walking in a joint and taking a seat at first. become the unfeeling Terminator as the play ensues but then when the count gets juicy and i push my big bet out i fall all to pieces again. lol think i got the Eeyore complex.

 

[bj bob]

Well, over the last week or so, I got to experience a bunch of variance.


The week was a net loss. Bankroll snapshot: almost $37k.

Keep this post in mind when your BR reaches 40K.

Angsty Emotional Stuff: I was pretty demoralized when I started the week with two big losses (which followed a losing week, which followed a losing Vegas trip). While driving home, I had plenty of time to stew over them. And then I remembered what it was like stewing over losses in the old days (a year or so ago).

This means your're still human =(+EV?). You just need a hug.

It was kind of like being comforted by an old friend. Losing still sucks. I think I'm still a little bit put off my increased betting levels. If I were to merely divide all the results by 10, then they'd reasonably compare to the swings I had with a $3000 bankroll. However, now, I'm winning or losing multiple paychecks at once. And the scary part is that I'm starting to get used to it.

That's really a good thing.

What hasn't changed at all is being in the middle of a losing streak, and projecting the results into infinity, and seeing the ultimate tapout waiting for me. That part hasn't changed. Being in a streak still feels like it's going to last forever.

Forever the optimist!

But what has definitely changed is this: When I was making my first few trips, I was so excited/scared going into a casino that I thought my heart was going to jump out of my chest (this might be what civilians feel when they go gambling). That feeling is now completely dead. Now, when I walk in the door, I'm just an unfeeling Terminator sent from the future to (potentially) extract a (potentially) unknown amount of money from the casinos.

You just need a prescription for AP Viagra. That should pick you up.

Scary Story: Last week it got interesting at an Indian joint. Coming back from a bathroom break, I noticed an employee standing around who at first thought was a supervisor/manager, but then see the name tag identifying her as with the Gaming Commission, and I don't usually see those folks around. At first I thought "Oh that's cool, she's on my side." And then I thought "Wait, this is the Tribal Gaming Commission, she's not on my side!". Then I realized "Well, at best, the Gaming Commission would be a neutral party, but still, nothing good can come of this". The Gaming rep could have been there for any of a wide variety of perfectly reasonable reasons... but a few other possible reasons might have been James Grosjean/Ken Uston levels of badness. That combined with an apparant reconfiguration of security personnel around the pit, led me to think it was a good time to cut my session short.

Be careful you don't end up on the business end of a tomahawk.

Paranoia on my part? Almost definitely. But that's okay, I would have needed to end my session soon anyway.

... anyone want to cash some Indian casino chips for me?

No problemo! It'll cost you a dinner in Old Town and an uphill drag on Montezuma.

 

[EasyRhino]

Keep this post in mind when your BR reaches 40K.

It already has!

Twice!