Man, this "counting" stuff is hard.
- Thread starter EasyRhino
- Start date
Geeze, no updates in about a month, let's see... *consults log*...
I had some Real Life keeping me away from gaming venues, but I did get in some sessions at the various local Indian wagering houses over the last few weeks. It turned into an emotional roller-coaster.
I treaded water in a negative direction for a few sessions, then a had a medium size, ($2700, or 50 "units" of $50) loss. Not like I've lost more or anything, but it really weighed down on me. First, I was getting close to the self-imposed $30k bankroll where bet ramp modifications were going to kick in. But second, for angsty reasons I cannot fully comprehend, my idle thoughts for the next week or so were consumed with planning out the eventual demise of my blackjack bankroll.
Next time out, I had a nice session win of over $3k. That was refreshing, to say the least, it was nice to know that large wins are still possible in the universe... that the big swings are not reserved exclusively for losses.
This rosy feeling lasted for 48 hours, when I was hit by two unpleasant losing sessions back-to-back, with a cumulative loss of $4900. This dropped the bankroll to a level of $29.5k. I was back to operating under my old "max bet = 1% of bankroll) rule, and this mean that that the big yellow warning light of mandatory bet resizing was flashing in my face.
It didn't help that over this time, I also lost a couple grand from my online e-wallet with a huge losing streak of fairly small deposits on "all-or-nothing" bonuses. Strangely, I wasn't as angsty about my new bankroll low, it was more of a resigned feeling of "well, let's see what happens next," and just let where the chips fall where they may (so to speak).
And something ridiculous happened: I had four winning sessions in a row; $1600, $600, $800, and almost $4500. I'm pretty sure the last one was my largest winning session to date. And it was especially ridiculous, as I was so damn lucky that I think you could have replaced me with a Golden Retriever, and he would have won about as much. Due to table minimums, I was only working a 2x4 spread, but I was so lucky during the neutral/negative counts that the high minimums actually helped me. And while I didn't get that many high counts, when I did manage to raise my bets to the max, it worked spectacularly, even though the wins were often pure luck, like getting multiple stiffs vs a dealer ten upcard, but still winning after the dealer busted.
After all this mess, my bankroll snapshot is currently 37.5k.
A few anecdotes:
- I mentioned my play being a bit more aggressive at local joints with mediocre games. Because, if I do get backed off... no big loss. Meanwhile, I've got significant time, money, and opportunity cost in just getting out there, so I might as well make it worthwhile. One night, I found myself at a place that is usually very crowded, but I was heads-up with the dealer, or had only one other person at the table. Not only that, this dealer was delivering the best pen in the house that night. I said to myself "F*** it, I'm not leaving," and preceeded to play at that same doubledeck table for two hours with a 2x8 spread.
- Ended up sharing a table with a couple of drunk middle aged women who were severely annoying the dealer. It was incredibly entertaining.
- At one place, due to crowds I did something I hadn't done in a while: blatantly backcounted a shoe and wonged in. 3 other players at the table, and I started playing two spots immediately. Starting at the 3 deck point, count started off medium, dropped to neutral, and then launched to stratospheric. I ended up with max bets out for several hands, and won a little bit. But even though the penetration was good (little over a deck cut off on a 6D game), the count kept increasing until the cut card, meaning that, for that brief slice of time, the winnings were, of course, just dumb luck.
- I bumped into another counter, and it was at a joint where I'd never seen another counter before. Real young guy, kind of stereotypical college kid type. He was betting about as much as me, so I'm not sure where he got the money from. The thing is, there was some weird non-correlation in our bet spreads (before I finally abandoned the table). There's a possibility it was just from using different counts, but I suspect that he was using a betting "system" that resulted in strange bet jumps, or he was being kind of sloppy in his count. Some of his plays also seemed irregular. Part of me wanted to just kick back and hawk his game and figure out what he was up to, but that didn't seem very polite.
- I bumped into a dealer that could count, too. Not only that, but he used to ply his trade at other places. He was even offering advice to the table like "hey, you might want to spread to two hands now". Geeze, how... considerate? I wasn't exactly sure how to handle that part of the conversation. This is at a joint where dealers keep their own tokes, so he didn't seem to have a financial incentive to narc on anyone.
I had some Real Life keeping me away from gaming venues, but I did get in some sessions at the various local Indian wagering houses over the last few weeks. It turned into an emotional roller-coaster.
I treaded water in a negative direction for a few sessions, then a had a medium size, ($2700, or 50 "units" of $50) loss. Not like I've lost more or anything, but it really weighed down on me. First, I was getting close to the self-imposed $30k bankroll where bet ramp modifications were going to kick in. But second, for angsty reasons I cannot fully comprehend, my idle thoughts for the next week or so were consumed with planning out the eventual demise of my blackjack bankroll.
Next time out, I had a nice session win of over $3k. That was refreshing, to say the least, it was nice to know that large wins are still possible in the universe... that the big swings are not reserved exclusively for losses.
This rosy feeling lasted for 48 hours, when I was hit by two unpleasant losing sessions back-to-back, with a cumulative loss of $4900. This dropped the bankroll to a level of $29.5k. I was back to operating under my old "max bet = 1% of bankroll) rule, and this mean that that the big yellow warning light of mandatory bet resizing was flashing in my face.
It didn't help that over this time, I also lost a couple grand from my online e-wallet with a huge losing streak of fairly small deposits on "all-or-nothing" bonuses. Strangely, I wasn't as angsty about my new bankroll low, it was more of a resigned feeling of "well, let's see what happens next," and just let where the chips fall where they may (so to speak).
And something ridiculous happened: I had four winning sessions in a row; $1600, $600, $800, and almost $4500. I'm pretty sure the last one was my largest winning session to date. And it was especially ridiculous, as I was so damn lucky that I think you could have replaced me with a Golden Retriever, and he would have won about as much. Due to table minimums, I was only working a 2x4 spread, but I was so lucky during the neutral/negative counts that the high minimums actually helped me. And while I didn't get that many high counts, when I did manage to raise my bets to the max, it worked spectacularly, even though the wins were often pure luck, like getting multiple stiffs vs a dealer ten upcard, but still winning after the dealer busted.
After all this mess, my bankroll snapshot is currently 37.5k.
A few anecdotes:
- I mentioned my play being a bit more aggressive at local joints with mediocre games. Because, if I do get backed off... no big loss. Meanwhile, I've got significant time, money, and opportunity cost in just getting out there, so I might as well make it worthwhile. One night, I found myself at a place that is usually very crowded, but I was heads-up with the dealer, or had only one other person at the table. Not only that, this dealer was delivering the best pen in the house that night. I said to myself "F*** it, I'm not leaving," and preceeded to play at that same doubledeck table for two hours with a 2x8 spread.
- Ended up sharing a table with a couple of drunk middle aged women who were severely annoying the dealer. It was incredibly entertaining.
- At one place, due to crowds I did something I hadn't done in a while: blatantly backcounted a shoe and wonged in. 3 other players at the table, and I started playing two spots immediately. Starting at the 3 deck point, count started off medium, dropped to neutral, and then launched to stratospheric. I ended up with max bets out for several hands, and won a little bit. But even though the penetration was good (little over a deck cut off on a 6D game), the count kept increasing until the cut card, meaning that, for that brief slice of time, the winnings were, of course, just dumb luck.
- I bumped into another counter, and it was at a joint where I'd never seen another counter before. Real young guy, kind of stereotypical college kid type. He was betting about as much as me, so I'm not sure where he got the money from. The thing is, there was some weird non-correlation in our bet spreads (before I finally abandoned the table). There's a possibility it was just from using different counts, but I suspect that he was using a betting "system" that resulted in strange bet jumps, or he was being kind of sloppy in his count. Some of his plays also seemed irregular. Part of me wanted to just kick back and hawk his game and figure out what he was up to, but that didn't seem very polite.
- I bumped into a dealer that could count, too. Not only that, but he used to ply his trade at other places. He was even offering advice to the table like "hey, you might want to spread to two hands now". Geeze, how... considerate? I wasn't exactly sure how to handle that part of the conversation. This is at a joint where dealers keep their own tokes, so he didn't seem to have a financial incentive to narc on anyone.
"SD as calm as a still lake?" Is that like a blackjack haiku?
No, I didn't, I was right on the edge. A BR drop to $27.5k would invoke a $275 max bet, $25k -> $250, etc., which might trigger a corresponding shift to lower minimums or different betting approaches.
But above $30k level, I've been leaving the bet ramp basically fixed. Bets with a $40k bankroll are basically the same as bets with a $30k bankroll. (I'll confess, I may have "chipped up" to $325 or $350 in a hugely positive count after winning a hand or two).
It's sort of a token risk aversion thing. To be honest, I'm still kind of sweating the money. Despite the fact that I don't need the bankroll, despite the fact that it was generated entirely at the expense of casinos, having these multi thousand dollar swings is still kind of stressful. (Last month's swing was actually two months' pay in Real Life... before taxes). I just wouldn't be able to deal with the bigger numbers from a bigger bet ramp. Plus, with my lack of an Act, it would get me kicked out of places even earlier.
Last week, while especially angsty, I was considering the idea of dropping my bet spread substantially, like in half, just so I could sleep at night. But I decided against it out of sheer obstinance.
(For the record, I can actually sleep at night)
The one thing I can say is that all this variance have given me a much tougher stomach for the stock market. The market tanking a few percent last week? Pfft. That's Kindergarten.
No, I didn't, I was right on the edge. A BR drop to $27.5k would invoke a $275 max bet, $25k -> $250, etc., which might trigger a corresponding shift to lower minimums or different betting approaches.
But above $30k level, I've been leaving the bet ramp basically fixed. Bets with a $40k bankroll are basically the same as bets with a $30k bankroll. (I'll confess, I may have "chipped up" to $325 or $350 in a hugely positive count after winning a hand or two).
It's sort of a token risk aversion thing. To be honest, I'm still kind of sweating the money. Despite the fact that I don't need the bankroll, despite the fact that it was generated entirely at the expense of casinos, having these multi thousand dollar swings is still kind of stressful. (Last month's swing was actually two months' pay in Real Life... before taxes). I just wouldn't be able to deal with the bigger numbers from a bigger bet ramp. Plus, with my lack of an Act, it would get me kicked out of places even earlier.
Last week, while especially angsty, I was considering the idea of dropping my bet spread substantially, like in half, just so I could sleep at night. But I decided against it out of sheer obstinance.
(For the record, I can actually sleep at night)
The one thing I can say is that all this variance have given me a much tougher stomach for the stock market. The market tanking a few percent last week? Pfft. That's Kindergarten.
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Tame the Beast of Variance.
If you are not ready to raise your bets based on bank then you don't have to, or you can raise them slowly so you are less likely to have to cut base bets on losses. I would continue to lower when appropriate so you don't go broke.
If raising base bets causes stress and discomfort then one may shy away from playing.
If you are not ready to raise your bets based on bank then you don't have to, or you can raise them slowly so you are less likely to have to cut base bets on losses. I would continue to lower when appropriate so you don't go broke.
If raising base bets causes stress and discomfort then one may shy away from playing.
That's cool lol.
And maybe it's not practical due to table mins or whatever.
But, just a general comment anyway, that doubling the units in your roll certainly would cut down dramatically on things like risk to your roll or risk of losing half your roll etc. All those $ swings would be cut in half too.
Of course the price you'd pay would be halving your EV but on the bright side maybe you'd have less risk of getting busted lol. Not to mention maybe alot less stress.
And, like you say, resizing at any time is always an option. I like betting to the $30K roll and stick with that, resisting the temptation to chip up, especially now that you are up. I mean like if you had $30K, let's face it, there's probably a pretty high chance you be down 8% ($2500) of your roll at some point perhaps triggering the re-sizing. But now you have all those extra units lol.
I have no idea what I'm saying either lol. Maybe don't be too obstinate or too greedy lol.
Always enjoy your trials and tribulations.
And maybe it's not practical due to table mins or whatever.
But, just a general comment anyway, that doubling the units in your roll certainly would cut down dramatically on things like risk to your roll or risk of losing half your roll etc. All those $ swings would be cut in half too.
Of course the price you'd pay would be halving your EV but on the bright side maybe you'd have less risk of getting busted lol. Not to mention maybe alot less stress.
And, like you say, resizing at any time is always an option. I like betting to the $30K roll and stick with that, resisting the temptation to chip up, especially now that you are up. I mean like if you had $30K, let's face it, there's probably a pretty high chance you be down 8% ($2500) of your roll at some point perhaps triggering the re-sizing. But now you have all those extra units lol.
I have no idea what I'm saying either lol. Maybe don't be too obstinate or too greedy lol.
Always enjoy your trials and tribulations.
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Ha I'm going to have to teach you an act then!
Have about five drinks, then slam your sixth drink down on the table and bellow "They're ALL whores!" Then start laughing. Then start crying. And don't lose the count!
After a few cantos of that, you'll have a table to yourself, the PC is on the far side of the pit cringing, and surveillance will be more interested in seeing if you are armed than if you are counting.
Have about five drinks, then slam your sixth drink down on the table and bellow "They're ALL whores!" Then start laughing. Then start crying. And don't lose the count!
After a few cantos of that, you'll have a table to yourself, the PC is on the far side of the pit cringing, and surveillance will be more interested in seeing if you are armed than if you are counting.
What a smashing idea, Monk! Why you could even open the Card Counter's Drama Institute adjacent to McMahon's WWE facility in Bridgeport. You could make millions teaching APs to develope whacky personas. I bet poor Mrs. Rhino wouldn't even recognize her precious little boy after 3 weeks at Monkey School.
Well played, sir.
You know, one problem I have is that I'm a lightweight when it comes to booze. Sure, I know the tricks to make it look like you're drinking when you're not, but still, I'm a wuss. Remember that time when we met and I was having trouble walking between tables? All I had to drink was a decaf iced tea.
I know things are probably different on the east coast, but that's pretty standard behavior out here. In fact, I think I'm picking up the Cantonese pronunciation of "they're all whores".
I've been working on the compulsive masochistic gambler thing. (Losing streaks are handy for that). I get excited when I have bad hands, and let down when I actually win them. I think it's starting to spook the dealers a little bit. I'm kind of like the weird old man hanging out by the casino playground (... we have plenty of those guys too). I can't push it too far, or the dealers won't want to deal to me.
You know, one problem I have is that I'm a lightweight when it comes to booze. Sure, I know the tricks to make it look like you're drinking when you're not, but still, I'm a wuss. Remember that time when we met and I was having trouble walking between tables? All I had to drink was a decaf iced tea.
I know things are probably different on the east coast, but that's pretty standard behavior out here. In fact, I think I'm picking up the Cantonese pronunciation of "they're all whores".
I've been working on the compulsive masochistic gambler thing. (Losing streaks are handy for that). I get excited when I have bad hands, and let down when I actually win them. I think it's starting to spook the dealers a little bit. I'm kind of like the weird old man hanging out by the casino playground (... we have plenty of those guys too). I can't push it too far, or the dealers won't want to deal to me.
Sweet
Kasi had a good idea a while ago.
If you are still shaky on betting big and losing bank then just don't resize up for a while.
I also mentioned this in the "Bankroll Mangement" thread as a method to preserve bankroll.
or
Reinvest some wins to lower ror.
ex.
If you win 25% of bank only increase your bets 10%, the other 15% you keep in the bank to lower your ror.
Kasi had a good idea a while ago.
If you are still shaky on betting big and losing bank then just don't resize up for a while.
I also mentioned this in the "Bankroll Mangement" thread as a method to preserve bankroll.
or
Reinvest some wins to lower ror.
ex.
If you win 25% of bank only increase your bets 10%, the other 15% you keep in the bank to lower your ror.