sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
a'int it great when good things keep happening over and over again? :joker:
Man, this "counting" stuff is hard.
- Thread starter EasyRhino
- Start date
a'int it great when good things keep happening over and over again? :joker:
bj bob
Well-Known Member
Third time's a charm
And yet again still. Just promise us to post when it reaches 50K (on or about Sept 3rd).
And yet again still. Just promise us to post when it reaches 50K (on or about Sept 3rd).
None of my business and I guess you're doing fine but I was just curious whether you ever try to figure out your variance even after just a session maybe. Do you mostly stick to a plan or just bet all over the place? Or play lots of different games in the same session maybe making it more difficult?
I saw you've been keeping a more detailed diary since Jan 1. Maybe that could shed clues.
Dividing results by 10 doesn't seem the way to go lol.
Guess just saying maybe, after a session, recording spreads, number of hands etc as best you can could possibly help in either reassuring you or not lol. A good guess might be better than no guess at all kind of thing.
Overall, how "disciplined" would you say you are?
Big swings so often just seem like a possible red flag especially if in shortish sessions.
And of course, like you say, big in dollars might not be big from a variance point of view lol.
Hey, good luck - I enjoy your travails.
I know I'm a little anal so be kind lol - I just can't help it.
EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
I haven't actually calculated variance or anything, I'm bad at math. The "lopping off a zero" method would just to get a better feel for the variance by translating it to dollar amounts I can relate too. Once I can't figure the number of taco bell burritos it will buy, I lose touch with the amount of money.
And to be honest, I have no interest in calculating variance, deviation, certainty equivalent (whatever that is), after sessions. I run some sims to get a reality check that the strategy on a particular game is sound, and then just hitch myself to the plow and get to work.
However, let's go total back-of-the-envelope. Let's say over the last 1.8 years, I'm put in 500 hours at the tables. That's quarter a year of work at a real job, so I don't see how it could possibly be more. And earlier, I guestimated that after the recent churn, only clearing about $5k from brick at mortar joints. So that would be... $10 an hour. Averaging with the small stakes I started with, it's not unreasonable. (but that number of hours played is the huge wildcard).
And to be honest, I have no interest in calculating variance, deviation, certainty equivalent (whatever that is), after sessions. I run some sims to get a reality check that the strategy on a particular game is sound, and then just hitch myself to the plow and get to work.
I keep it pretty tight. I can count on one hand the number of times I've been working on my "steaming" act, and just grabbed a handful of greens to throw into the betting circle angrily, and it turned out I exceeded my my desired bet substantially... which sometimes ends up with amusing results.
You know, good question. My current session log lists time played, but this is more for the purposes of tracking if I'm been staying too long at once place, not computing an hourly. Plus, it doesn't go back that far. So I really nave no idea how much time I've spent at the tables, except it feels like a lot.
However, let's go total back-of-the-envelope. Let's say over the last 1.8 years, I'm put in 500 hours at the tables. That's quarter a year of work at a real job, so I don't see how it could possibly be more. And earlier, I guestimated that after the recent churn, only clearing about $5k from brick at mortar joints. So that would be... $10 an hour. Averaging with the small stakes I started with, it's not unreasonable. (but that number of hours played is the huge wildcard).
I do know with certainty I've made 1.06 average bet units per hour over and above what flat-betting results would have been, not the expected value of flat-betting results but the actual results if assuming flat-betting, that's average bet units not min-bet units, so probably compares very favorably, to say the least, to a counter's expected results. That's if I assume 100/hands an hour over 189300 hands.
But all the hands were played in a negative EV environment and the results are essentially strictly attributable, in my mind at least, to occasional use of voo-doo betting systems I enjoyed using.
But, you're right, I play in AC mostly and not that much and long ago decided it wasn't worth it to me to fully employ a counting system. I'll count for the fun of it, use some indexes for the fun of it, along with voo-doo stuff nobody wants to hear about lol. But at least I know, approximately lol, how many absolute $'s I've won doing this over how long.
So I'm just curious about what other people do and how they do it when they card-count and to what extent they maybe analyze results or not, or vary from a plan if they had one. Etc.
I mean if a guy decides his max bet is $100 at TC+4 and above but suddenly decides to bet $200 on 7 spots in an astronomical count and wins them all what does he think - he's lucky or a great card-counter?
But, you're right in what I think you're implying, I pretty much just come from my theoretical, how I perceive it anyway, ivory castle lol attempting to answer, basically, how "lucky or not" I am.
Hey that's cool - thanks very much for your reply.
I won't bother you about it again.
It kills me just a little because I think you are close and the math is not that hard - I suck at it too.
But you know in 500 hours you could almost make that $5K in a 6/8 crappy AC game with a $10K roll playing all hands.
It's just that how do you answer the question whether that $5k win is reasonably expected or so far below what's expected it may represent something else or even just the luck of a BS player?
Maybe card-counters don't really have to know how long they've played, how much money they won and to what extent it's lucky or not.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
this was online right? is thie 1.06 average bet units per hour include the bonus advantage? probably not as i think you were able to live on the proceeds for nine years, right? lol
well this is brick & mortar. and every one knows by now i have about the same sentiment. so but anyway are you using part of the same approach as the online tactics just with out having the bonus advantage? is the counting and indexes tied in anyway to the voo-doo stuff. but i think you might bet up some with the count but not say an orthodox bet ramp and spread like say 1:10 , 1:12 or 1:16 but maybe sometimes more or less i think you said. well i think you tryed to explain it some in another post but i'm getting it mixed up in my mind with whether it's online or brick & mortar. why do you say voodoo stuff, i mean what is it progression or bankroll management sort of thing?
my tact has been changing some over my most recent sessions where i've been trying to go with the FC. real play on the crowded conditions i normally face is so slow that i've found i might as well just go ahead and count hi/lo if the FC indicates the remaining pack flips into positive territory. the FC is pretty good at determining if the true count is static at TC=0 or if it shifts either negative or positive. but i mostly play all hardly ever wong out so if the true count and pack remaining gets to the point where one would optimally wong out then i just FC it and play basic strategy with maybe a few negative indices i'm trying to learn. then if some how i am convinced by the FC that it's went back positive i might make a small increased bet (a gamble i call it lol). and by then the shuffle is usually pretty much comming soon so it's start all over again when the new shoe is commenced. so pretty much i'm fuzzy counting about 75% of the time and hi/lo about 25% of the time more or less depending on how the count for any given shoe is presenting in reality.
i think what i've been doing is sort of like that but not so radical. i mean i think i'm betting rather orthodox 1:10 or maybe 2X6 when i'm hi/lo counting the positive territory and then if i've been FC'ing the negative and neutral count territory then i might make a small gamble if i percieve it went positive.
sort of a mixed bag for now.
well i know i'm gambling and doing so trying to borrow from some of what the experts do.
Yes it was lol and it does not include the bonus advantage. Just the results of playing in a way that tried to exceed flat-bet results.
The miracle is I ever even bothered, or took the risk, to do anything besides just flat bet since it was not necessary. Mostly I didn't because I was gonna win something unless the game was crooked.
So it was obviously very easy to record the hands etc. Probably sparked my interest in all this BS. And I don't mean basic strategy lol.
But I guess yes counting and index stuff is very very loosely built into my voodoo stuff in real life in the sense at least when I do the same voodoo stuff
I know it's with an advantage compared to knowing it's not.
So I understand how real life is alot more difficult to figure out. Everything is a guess. Hands played. Avg bet. Etc. All I know for sure is how many dollars I won or lost lol. And my ROR is still 100% because I'm just not betting enough often enough for it to be otherwise.
Let's face it it's just not very hard with a 500 unit roll to make up 10 units using various betting systems over a 1000 hands. Half the time plain old luck gets you there anyway. So big deal I come home with a little more than I left almost always.
At least I'm not pretending to myself because I win a couple thousand bucks over a few years, a few, maybe several, thousand hands, that, just because I'm counting, that that's the reason I'm ahead and this counting stuff is great and all I need to do is play more to become a millionaire since it's such a certainty.
I mean, if I did, if I thought my results were just because I counted cards, I'd have to recognize the fact that I'm one unbelievably lucky card counter with results exceeding so many standard deviations it simply is not believable.
The much more reasonable explanation is that the results are explainable knowing that an x unit roll will make a unit before losing y units betting a certain way with a high, mathematically established, percentage of success. And if I lose those y units with that roll, I have another 20 unit roll whose unit is 4 times the original unit. Win that one higher unit I'm back to even and can go back to original plan. Kind of thing. I guess in that sense I re-size my bets to roll just like real AP's might occasionally do lol.
Whatever - who the heck ever knows what's REALLY going on anyway lol.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
sincere apologies Easy. you are right. will move any furthur discussion to voodoo. and attempt to bridal any further outbursts of curiosity and enthusiasm engendered by your quests to more scientific observation and mathamatical rigor.
sincere apologies Easy. you are right. will move any furthur discussion to voodoo. and attempt to bridal any further outbursts of curiosity and enthusiasm engendered by your quests to more scientific observation and mathamatical rigor.
wow, so you and kasi have over 3k posts combined and are using some kind of voodoo betting strategy. this is very interesting. what kind of hard results are you getting? like $s up in your gambling careers... will be interesting to compare with Easy who only uses pure math.
I just gave you hard results except in units, not dollars.
Dollars won wouldn't tell you anything anyway.
I think any counter here would be really really happy to make 1.06 average-bet units per hundred hands played for 189000 hands.
Except I had no mathematical advantage ever. And my results are actually understated because I didn't adjust for splits.
So, when ER says "I haven't actually calculated variance or anything, I'm bad at math." and "I have no interest in calculating variance, deviation.." how does that give you the impression he uses pure math?
Not picking on ER here - he enjoys what he does his way. Like we all do.
But let's face it, if he's won $5K in 500 hours and won an average bet every hour, it would mean his average bet was $10 which is silly.
I'm not trying to debate the merits of how I play, or how long voodoo systems can actually last, although I do think it's greatly underestimated in general, I'm just saying if one doesn't even know how much they've won or how long they played at the very very least, how do they know what they won is attributable to card-counting or luck?
Like in his case, $10/hr over 500 hours seems like possibly extremely unlikely results from a card-counting point of view.
Can one even be a card-counter without keeping a log of some kind anyway? If one only dismisses all results of any kind forever up to expected variance is he a card-counter?
Should I call myself a card-counter becasue I count in AC just because I sometimes make bigger bets in + counts and come home with money?
Lol. Me bad.
My point is how do you know if your results are the result of card-counting or just plain luck?
If you knew, hypothetically speaking, that the $5K you've made over 500 hours were 4 standard deviations below the EV of what would be expected from someone following the sims suggested way, it might prompt you at some point to re-think something.
In other words work on a way to relate your results to the results of the "plan" you had going into a game.
Or not and carry on! lol.
Want to take a stab out of the blue and make a wild guess on total dollars wagered lol? Like maybe an avg bet times hands kind of thing?
EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
Well, the last week was moderately interestingly. Sessionwise, I started out with a fairly large $2600 loss. Then I managed two sessions with wins in the mid-teens. Both of these feature small streaks in high counts where I was just crushing the table, which was a feeling I had become unaccustomed to (losses in with smaller bets were pretty severe, though, which is why the wins weren't titanic).
I also withdrew a about $500 from my gambling account to contribute towards the bank accounts effect on my taxes this year. But I received a much-delaye online cashout for about the same amount of money, defraying it.
Bankroll snapshot: just barely over $38k.
Random factoids:
- Actually benefitted from a double-dealer error. Bet was collected on a push on accident, when I brought it to the dealer's attention, he called the floor and refunded the bet, which happened to be twice what I had actually bet.
- At one place, which is usually pathologically crowded and plagued with bad penetration, ended up with about a 30 minute stretch with an empty table with two different dealers both giving workable pen. It was kind of like being in the middle of a twilight zone episode.
- I figure at least two dealers at one local place know what I'm up to, just based on a few "wink, wink" comments they've made. They also appear to not give a damn. I wonder how long I can rely on the obliviousness or indifference of the floor. One option would be to lay off them for a bit... but what's the fun in that?
I also withdrew a about $500 from my gambling account to contribute towards the bank accounts effect on my taxes this year. But I received a much-delaye online cashout for about the same amount of money, defraying it.
Bankroll snapshot: just barely over $38k.
Random factoids:
- Actually benefitted from a double-dealer error. Bet was collected on a push on accident, when I brought it to the dealer's attention, he called the floor and refunded the bet, which happened to be twice what I had actually bet.
- At one place, which is usually pathologically crowded and plagued with bad penetration, ended up with about a 30 minute stretch with an empty table with two different dealers both giving workable pen. It was kind of like being in the middle of a twilight zone episode.
- I figure at least two dealers at one local place know what I'm up to, just based on a few "wink, wink" comments they've made. They also appear to not give a damn. I wonder how long I can rely on the obliviousness or indifference of the floor. One option would be to lay off them for a bit... but what's the fun in that?
Glad you're keeping us updated!
Automatic Monkey
Banned
If the floor is indifferent, the floor is indifferent. Your banning will come from much higher up, probably as a result of win/loss data. So the time to start ratholing is now.
You'll need a partner. Preferably a girl. (For ratholing!) One who enjoys trips to the casino and would be comfortable playing craps or roulette with your green chips before cashing them in. If you want to get yourself into a world of trouble, you can find such a girl in your local alternative personal ads page.
EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
Ratholing, check. I'll just stick with hiding the chips in orafices.
However, having individual casino employees get on to you can be a bad thing, all it takes is one narc to ruin everything. Kind of like a game of russian roulette, and each employee that thinks you're up to something is a bullet. (And the higher they are up in the food chain, the bigger the bullet).
However, having individual casino employees get on to you can be a bad thing, all it takes is one narc to ruin everything. Kind of like a game of russian roulette, and each employee that thinks you're up to something is a bullet. (And the higher they are up in the food chain, the bigger the bullet).
There's no way that's +EV. However, I wonder if my buddy still has that phone number for the stripper that commutes from LA to Vegas each weekend...