mistakes
- Thread starter L.J.
- Start date
I make mistakes all the time. Counting errors don't account for very much in terms of your profitability. You don't want to make them, but don't be afraid to get your bets out there because you think you might have missed a card. Counting accuracy is less important than good game selection- playing only games with good rules and good penetration.
The big counting error is reversing the count, meaning you have a RC of -10 and somehow your mind converts that to +10 and you start betting big. That's one you want to avoid- still, don't be afraid of it. It helps if you avoid playing negative counts, for many reasons, but one of them is that you lessen the risk of switching the negative count to a positive one.
You might want to try finding a $5 or lower table and practicing your counting there. Counting down a deck is not a very realistic simulation of what you have to do at the table.
The big counting error is reversing the count, meaning you have a RC of -10 and somehow your mind converts that to +10 and you start betting big. That's one you want to avoid- still, don't be afraid of it. It helps if you avoid playing negative counts, for many reasons, but one of them is that you lessen the risk of switching the negative count to a positive one.
You might want to try finding a $5 or lower table and practicing your counting there. Counting down a deck is not a very realistic simulation of what you have to do at the table.
Everyone makes mistakes.
If you are counting down ten decks in less than 30 seconds each and make a total of one or two mistakes,its not that big a deal.If you are taking a minute a deck and making mistakes on almost every deck,then you have a ways to go.
I used to strive for being able to count down double decks in less than a minute.If I could do it five times in a row,I was happy. Now I can do it my sleep. Practice,more practice and even more practice.There is no substitute.
If you are counting down ten decks in less than 30 seconds each and make a total of one or two mistakes,its not that big a deal.If you are taking a minute a deck and making mistakes on almost every deck,then you have a ways to go.
I used to strive for being able to count down double decks in less than a minute.If I could do it five times in a row,I was happy. Now I can do it my sleep. Practice,more practice and even more practice.There is no substitute.
The problem with mistakes that you catch is it may mean there's mistakes that you don't catch. It's like rats or cockroaches. And if there's a lot and a variety of mistakes in your play, then you're likely losing money instead of winning it.
... however, as AM implied, if your running count is off by 1 through a shoe... that won't really make a significant difference in the grand scheme of things. Using the count is such an imprecise tool that a tiny amount of imprecision doesn't hurt it too bad (that's the whole reason different counting systems can exist and be useful).
You need to be able to count down decks without errors. Not a death march of 100 decks in a row, but you need to be able to count them down in a relaxed environment without errors. Then, if you can do something to simulate a casino environment (friend dealing and loud noises), then go for that. Failing that, going to a casino and just backcounting tables can be good (and boring) practice).
... however, as AM implied, if your running count is off by 1 through a shoe... that won't really make a significant difference in the grand scheme of things. Using the count is such an imprecise tool that a tiny amount of imprecision doesn't hurt it too bad (that's the whole reason different counting systems can exist and be useful).
You need to be able to count down decks without errors. Not a death march of 100 decks in a row, but you need to be able to count them down in a relaxed environment without errors. Then, if you can do something to simulate a casino environment (friend dealing and loud noises), then go for that. Failing that, going to a casino and just backcounting tables can be good (and boring) practice).
I pretty much agree with AM and rhino, but would like to add that me personally, thought I wasn't making as many errors as I really was. I can count down decks quick and perfect, and deal myself multiple hands through a few shoes without much trouble at all. But what I didn't realize was that when put through mock casino conditions I was screwing up royally. I don't mean counting with a tv or radio playing as a distraction because I've always practiced that way. Its the stopping and starting with conversations in between, doing other things like getting a drink or just being asked to do something besides count while your counting. It was like a snowball effect of mistakes that I never saw because all my practices before this experience were pretty good and my casino time was feeling pretty natural. The problem was there was no way to know about mistakes in a casino because there are no way to check. So I agree that a single counting mistake here and there won't hurt you, but for me I learned it was much more and I thought I was not making any.
The dude that just showed me whats what is pretty damn good. You would think he's a robot incapable of mistakes. Thats where I want to be. A good way to see if you can count real good is, deal multiple hands to another person calling out totals,playing the dealers hand, figuring bet amounts and TCs and counting at the same time. If you can do that I'd say you got counting down pretty good because I find it really hard. Which surprised me because I could deal and play hands to myself with no problem, but its somehow different dealing to others and calling out numbers out loud. What I was told and learned was, I might not need to be that good to win at blackjack, but at least I will know that I really am good enough to win when it comes right down to it.
The dude that just showed me whats what is pretty damn good. You would think he's a robot incapable of mistakes. Thats where I want to be. A good way to see if you can count real good is, deal multiple hands to another person calling out totals,playing the dealers hand, figuring bet amounts and TCs and counting at the same time. If you can do that I'd say you got counting down pretty good because I find it really hard. Which surprised me because I could deal and play hands to myself with no problem, but its somehow different dealing to others and calling out numbers out loud. What I was told and learned was, I might not need to be that good to win at blackjack, but at least I will know that I really am good enough to win when it comes right down to it.
One important fact is that random errors are not cumulative. They have a tendency to balance out. Even reversing the count is no big deal if you do it twice in rapid succession. I myself once reversed the count an astounding 1,402 times between placing my bet and playing my hand on a single round, and it didn't make any difference. Good thing it wasn't 1,403 , then I would have been in trouble.
The second important fact is that missed cards at the beginning of or during a shoe are identical to cards behind the cut card. So opting to play a game with 1.5 decks cut off instead of 1.25 cut off is just like making 13 random counting errors per shoe, and it's unlikely anyone makes that many.
The second important fact is that missed cards at the beginning of or during a shoe are identical to cards behind the cut card. So opting to play a game with 1.5 decks cut off instead of 1.25 cut off is just like making 13 random counting errors per shoe, and it's unlikely anyone makes that many.
when i count down decks at home i make about 1 mistake in 10 decks. the problem is like you say in the casino when you have tc and basic strategy and stuff to think about. im worried that i will simply forget the count, or the last cards.
for example if the count has been 3 for a long time, and then changes, someone disturbs my concentration, and i wonder what the count was? - right, 3!
for example if the count has been 3 for a long time, and then changes, someone disturbs my concentration, and i wonder what the count was? - right, 3!
You have already stated that finding the best game is whats really important. If that's the case why would you weaken a better game by lessening the strength of penetration according to your mistake analysis. For that matter why worry about finding good games if your skill level neutralizes the better games anyway. Thats a typical lazy attitude that some counters adapt to rationalize poor play. Its real simple, if you want to be good at something, then strive for exactly that. I for one cannot be satisfied with worsening my situation with incompetence.
This is were practice is important. Keep practicing until you are perfect at home. If you are still making 1 in 10 mistakes at home you are not ready yet for the casino. Don't worry it will come to you. I would suggest along with counting down decks also invest in some practice software which will help speed things up and it can monitor your errors. When I was younger and played baseball during a practice I once did not dive for a ball. When my coach asked my why I did not dive for it? I told him I would do it in the game. He answered back to me "If you can't do it in practice you won't be able to do it in the game". There is a lot of truth to that statement in any endeavour you pursue in life. While you will never be able to know for sure if you are making mistakes in the casino because you cannot grab the cards in the discard tray and check, the best way to minimize mistakes at the casino is to be perfect at home. A mistake here or there might not effect your EV at all in the casino but many mistakes even little ones will add up over time and it is hard enough to make money at this game without subtracting from your EV from mistakes which should be avoidable.
I don't know about that AM? While I haven't tested this to know if errors are cumulative or not. I do know when ever I create a new trading system I will run it with and without execution errors and the errors will almost always have a negative effect on EV and its usually compounded with slippage. I know blackjack and trading the markets aren't exactly the same thing but they do have many parallels which drew me to playing blackjack. Have you ever run any sims with errors built in?
I don't know. Sonny might be the guy who can answer this one or try e-mailing Norm at http://www.qfit.com
Not SCORE, only the winrate (Dead link: http://www.bjstats.com/bjbr.asp) Other interesting study of him related to the subject Cost of Blackjack Strategy Errors.
Plenty. The QFIT package will allow you to play with errors but it doesn't say exactly what the nature of those errors are, so I'll have to rely on theory.
One way in that counting BJ is different is that the count is a scalar quantity and assuming you are counting High-Low, a card can only have a value of +1, -1, or 0. If you take a few random cards of known value and assign random values of +1/-1/0 to them, both the sum of the actual cards you miscounted and the sum of your erroneous count will tend towards zero! We don't make any money at a zero count so this doesn't help us, but zeroes don't add up very quickly. One caveat is that this only happens when the errors are random. If you have some kind of mental block where you always count an ace as a low card, for example, you have a much bigger problem.
Miscounted cards behave just like unknown cards such as the ones behind the cut card and of course we want to minimize those which is what we do when we look for good pen. But unless you are only playing shoes that have 76 cards cut out instead of 78, I don't see the point of fretting over miscounting a couple of cards per shoe. Time would be better spent in other ways. Everything we do is a gross approximation anyway.
One way in that counting BJ is different is that the count is a scalar quantity and assuming you are counting High-Low, a card can only have a value of +1, -1, or 0. If you take a few random cards of known value and assign random values of +1/-1/0 to them, both the sum of the actual cards you miscounted and the sum of your erroneous count will tend towards zero! We don't make any money at a zero count so this doesn't help us, but zeroes don't add up very quickly. One caveat is that this only happens when the errors are random. If you have some kind of mental block where you always count an ace as a low card, for example, you have a much bigger problem.
Miscounted cards behave just like unknown cards such as the ones behind the cut card and of course we want to minimize those which is what we do when we look for good pen. But unless you are only playing shoes that have 76 cards cut out instead of 78, I don't see the point of fretting over miscounting a couple of cards per shoe. Time would be better spent in other ways. Everything we do is a gross approximation anyway.
lol i'm following this thread with extreme interest being the way that i play and all...
one thing though it doesn't seem that miscounted cards behave just as unknown cards. actually they would have an influence on what our perception of the disadvatage or advantage is at a given moment as well as like you say having the effect of really being unknown cards hence decreasing penetration. but i suppose your point is well taken in that if the error in our perception is random then that perception is going to tend towards TC=0 in the long haul. lol . net effect tending to stretch out our time spent playing at a zero true count which will cut into our bottom line some.
according to Jacobson in The Blackjack Zone if one makes the typical errors at a rate of about 5% then the player can still beat the game. this gives me little comfort however as i've been lead to believe that most human attempts to make quantitative analysis usually yeilds about 13% error.
one thing though it doesn't seem that miscounted cards behave just as unknown cards. actually they would have an influence on what our perception of the disadvatage or advantage is at a given moment as well as like you say having the effect of really being unknown cards hence decreasing penetration. but i suppose your point is well taken in that if the error in our perception is random then that perception is going to tend towards TC=0 in the long haul. lol . net effect tending to stretch out our time spent playing at a zero true count which will cut into our bottom line some.
according to Jacobson in The Blackjack Zone if one makes the typical errors at a rate of about 5% then the player can still beat the game. this gives me little comfort however as i've been lead to believe that most human attempts to make quantitative analysis usually yeilds about 13% error.
ever try using your chips to count? ask for 20 whites with the rest of your chips, its easier to keep track, and its hilarious that the dealer probably thinks your going to tip with them.. i can count down a deck in about 50 seconds with about 1 mistake every 4 decks, yet i have less trouble than you would think in the casino because i use my chips, except the only problem is i have to count my chips to find out the run count, and i struggle with being able to estimate the true count quickly and accurately, but for somebody who didnt practice for hours on end, id say im doing pretty damn good.. also i flat bet and wong, so the true count is only needed for playing decisions for me