I'm new to this counting world, but have been soaking up all I can to try to get a system down. I've started with the Red 7 count and am trying to use Snyder's 'true edge' calculation to decide on a bet ramp. Some review from the veterans on this site would be much appreciated.
In Blackbelt in Blackjack, Arnold Snyder gives us a way to calculate the approximate edge over the house using his Red 7 count.
When the running count is positive (0 is the pivot) divide RC by twice the number of remaining decks and then add 1/2 (assuming our advantage at the pivot is about 1/2).
It occurred to me I could avoid making this calculation at the table by creating and memorizing a chart showing what the run count needs to be to have reached a certain advantage for the number of decks dealt.
When the RC reaches the value of the number of remaining decks, the advantage is now 1%. (RC/2*decksremaining +1/2)
When the RC reaches twice the value of the number of remaining decks, the advantage is 1.5%
RC is three times the number of decks, advantage is 2%
etc etc etc
For example when there are 3 decks remaining, when the RC reaches 3, the advantage has risen to about 1%. (3/2*3) + 1/2 = 1 When the RC reaches 6, it's 1.5% in my favor. (6/2*3) + 1/2 = 1.5
I know this is simplifying the true edge technique because it just estimates full decks, not half decks - but the idea was to have as little math at the table as possible. All you have to know is how many full decks remain in the shoe (I always round up, by rounding down the decks I see in the discard tray so i'm not overestimating my advantage) and then when the run count reaches a multiple of that number, it's time to increase my bet. Seems complicated until you try it and realize you just ramp up the bet for each multiple of the number of decks, which is really easy math.
My next step is to try to determine the ideal bet for each advantage. Using a 1-10 spread and playing through some negative counts, I thought something like this might work.
negative = 1 unit
pivot (.5%) = 2 units (RC 0)
1% = 4 units (RC=decks remaining)
1.5% = 6 units (RC=twice decks remaining)
2% = 8 units (RC=3x decks remaining)
2.5% = 10 units (RC = 4x decks remaining)
So if I see 2 decks remaining in the shoe, and the run count is +6, I'd bet 8 units.
If I see 4 decks still remaining, I'd have to wait until the count is +12 to make that same bet.
I call this my
I've been playing 6 deck games where the edge off the top is .55. (H17, DOA, DAS, LS, resplit up to 4, no resplit aces. Penetration is about 67 - 70 percent) - I'm betting using $5 units. I know this is a simplification of the true edge technique but if some of the math savvy counters could weigh in with their opinions, especially about the bet ramp, it would be really helpful. I am considering getting Snyder's Beat the 6 Deck Game technical report and using those frequency distributions to refine the bet ramp and have a better idea of EV. In the mean time, some comments from the experts would help me know which way to go.
In Blackbelt in Blackjack, Arnold Snyder gives us a way to calculate the approximate edge over the house using his Red 7 count.
When the running count is positive (0 is the pivot) divide RC by twice the number of remaining decks and then add 1/2 (assuming our advantage at the pivot is about 1/2).
It occurred to me I could avoid making this calculation at the table by creating and memorizing a chart showing what the run count needs to be to have reached a certain advantage for the number of decks dealt.
When the RC reaches the value of the number of remaining decks, the advantage is now 1%. (RC/2*decksremaining +1/2)
When the RC reaches twice the value of the number of remaining decks, the advantage is 1.5%
RC is three times the number of decks, advantage is 2%
etc etc etc
For example when there are 3 decks remaining, when the RC reaches 3, the advantage has risen to about 1%. (3/2*3) + 1/2 = 1 When the RC reaches 6, it's 1.5% in my favor. (6/2*3) + 1/2 = 1.5
I know this is simplifying the true edge technique because it just estimates full decks, not half decks - but the idea was to have as little math at the table as possible. All you have to know is how many full decks remain in the shoe (I always round up, by rounding down the decks I see in the discard tray so i'm not overestimating my advantage) and then when the run count reaches a multiple of that number, it's time to increase my bet. Seems complicated until you try it and realize you just ramp up the bet for each multiple of the number of decks, which is really easy math.
My next step is to try to determine the ideal bet for each advantage. Using a 1-10 spread and playing through some negative counts, I thought something like this might work.
negative = 1 unit
pivot (.5%) = 2 units (RC 0)
1% = 4 units (RC=decks remaining)
1.5% = 6 units (RC=twice decks remaining)
2% = 8 units (RC=3x decks remaining)
2.5% = 10 units (RC = 4x decks remaining)
So if I see 2 decks remaining in the shoe, and the run count is +6, I'd bet 8 units.
If I see 4 decks still remaining, I'd have to wait until the count is +12 to make that same bet.
I call this my
I've been playing 6 deck games where the edge off the top is .55. (H17, DOA, DAS, LS, resplit up to 4, no resplit aces. Penetration is about 67 - 70 percent) - I'm betting using $5 units. I know this is a simplification of the true edge technique but if some of the math savvy counters could weigh in with their opinions, especially about the bet ramp, it would be really helpful. I am considering getting Snyder's Beat the 6 Deck Game technical report and using those frequency distributions to refine the bet ramp and have a better idea of EV. In the mean time, some comments from the experts would help me know which way to go.