My Hi-Lo strategy questions thread

[flyingwind]

I'm going to just make this one thread and start using it for all my Hi-Lo questions.

1. When playing a shoe game, and it's down to the last 2 decks or the last 1 deck, do the indices change? I wonder because the indices are slightly different for shoe games, 2 deck, and 1 deck. So if the shoe is dealt down to near the end, does the indices have to be changed? (while keeping the same count from the earlier part of the shoe?) For example, should insurance be taken at TC=2 when only 2 decks are left? and insurance taken at TC=1 when only 1 deck is left?

 

[21forme]

1. No change. Your remaining 1 or 2 decks are made up of cards from the shoe. They are not unique as they would be in single deck, for example.

 

[bj bob]

Ditto that

21"s right. That last 52 cards is just that, it's 52 random cards, not an exact deck. Those last 52 cards may be composed of 35 ten cards and 17 aces for all we know. Nothing resembling the composition of an actual deck, therefore no need or reason to subject the remaining "deck" to SD indices.

 

[caramel6]

Hi-low question

I'm going to just make this one thread and start using it for all my Hi-Lo questions.

1. When playing a shoe game, and it's down to the last 2 decks or the last 1 deck, do the indices change? I wonder because the indices are slightly different for shoe games, 2 deck, and 1 deck. So if the shoe is dealt down to near the end, does the indices have to be changed? (while keeping the same count from the earlier part of the shoe?) For example, should insurance be taken at TC=2 when only 2 decks are left? and insurance taken at TC=1 when only 1 deck is left?

Hi, sorry for my English , not my mothertongue, I play recently only winging in on TC3 and higher playing behind players,only if 2 boxes opened, choosing one of them (of course, before get sure that they play BS fine,), So far it works not bad.

Can anyone tell me:how many units could be won on average per shoe: 8 decks, good pen, I bet a flat unit, dealer stays on soft 17, no surrender, insurance, any 2 cards double, split any pairs,usually I try to wong in after 4 decks being dealt(if tc 3 , of course).

Again apologies for my English, and, may be , a bit strange question, best regards,

 

[flyingwind]

How important is this?

2. How important is this Hi-Lo index?: Stand with A-7 against Ace at 1 or higher. (Assuming 6D shoe game with average rules)

 

[paddywhack]

2. How important is this Hi-Lo index?: Stand with A-7 against Ace at 1 or higher. (Assuming 6D shoe game with average rules)

A-7 is a hit against an Ace, always

 

[Sucker]

A-7 is a hit against an Ace, always

Not true. If the dealer stands on S17, it's correct to stand on A-7 as long as the count is neutral or higher. When the dealer HITS S17, it's a stand if the count gets to +1 or higher.

 

[Sucker]

2. How important is this Hi-Lo index?: Stand with A-7 against Ace at 1 or higher. (Assuming 6D shoe game with average rules)

If you were to slightly miss this once in a while it wouldn't be the end of the world. If you slightly miss MOST of the index plays ONCE in a while you'll probably be ok. But you certainly don't want to make a HABIT of missing index plays. If you're spreading your bets correctly, you'll probably still win, but the cumulative errors will definitely cut into your profits, and rather significantly. It sure never hurts to strive for perfection!

 

[blackjack avenger]

Not Much

2. How important is this Hi-Lo index?: Stand with A-7 against Ace at 1 or higher. (Assuming 6D shoe game with average rules)

not very important, its a rare hand:joker::whip:
for a particular rule, if s17 only

 

[paddywhack]

Not true. If the dealer stands on S17, it's correct to stand on A-7 as long as the count is neutral or higher. When the dealer HITS S17, it's a stand if the count gets to +1 or higher.

Yeah, my bad on that one. I rarely get the option of S17 so forgot about that.

 

[paddywhack]

Wait a minute here...

Not true. If the dealer stands on S17, it's correct to stand on A-7 as long as the count is neutral or higher. When the dealer HITS S17, it's a stand if the count gets to +1 or higher.

Wong in Professional Blackjack says: S17, hit if less than +1 otherwise stand. H17, always hit.

Do I have this wrong???

 

[blackjack avenger]

Wong is Wright

Wong in Professional Blackjack says: S17, hit if less than +1 otherwise stand. H17, always hit.

Do I have this wrong???

I would go with Wong:joker::whip:

 

[Sharky]

agreed, can't go wong:laugh:

 

[flyingwind]

Who's right?

Ok, now I'm confused.

"If the dealer stands on S17, it's correct to stand on A-7 as long as the count is neutral or higher. When the dealer HITS S17, it's a stand if the count gets to +1 or higher."

"Wong in Professional Blackjack says: S17, hit if less than +1 otherwise stand. H17, always hit."

So who's right? Is it different because these are referring to different deck games? 1D, 2D, 6D, or more?

 

[Sucker]

In the book "Playing Blackjack as a Business", on page 129; Lawrence Revere states: "When the rules allow the dealer to hit soft seventeen, stand on A7 vs ace at plus one or higher". Revere's simulations were all run by Julian Braun.

So NOW I don't know WHO to believe - Braun or Wong; both a couple of real heavyweights in their own right. I'm not anywhere near my gambling library, but I'd sure like to see what, if anything, Peter Griffin says about this hand.

 

[jack.jackson]

Ok, now I'm confused.

"If the dealer stands on S17, it's correct to stand on A-7 as long as the count is neutral or higher. When the dealer HITS S17, it's a stand if the count gets to +1 or higher."

"Wong in Professional Blackjack says: S17, hit if less than +1 otherwise stand. H17, always hit."

So who's right? Is it different because these are referring to different deck games? 1D, 2D, 6D, or more?

Blackjack for Blood says the same thing. If the dealer hits S17 ALWAYS hit A7vA. Stand +1 or higher in a S17 game.

Logic suggests that when the dealer stands on S17 we should be less likely yo hit this hand since we already hav'em beat.

SUCKER are you sure it doesnt say the opposite of(your statement) this, in your book? If it does, it appears to be an error in the book.

 

[Sucker]

I definitely quoted the book word for word. I'm beginning to believe that it probably IS an error, but I also believe that there IS an index number for this, although probably much higher than +1.

I DID run a couple of simulations at a count of +1 and then another couple at +10; a million hands each,where I stood on the hand, and another million where I hit.
At a count of +1, my simulator said hitting was the correct play, but at +10, standing did significantly better than hitting.

 

[paddywhack]

I definitely quoted the book word for word. I'm beginning to believe that it probably IS an error, but I also believe that there IS an index number for this, although probably much higher than +1.

I DID run a couple of simulations at a count of +1 and then another couple at +10; a million hands each,where I stood on the hand, and another million where I hit.
At a count of +1, my simulator said hitting was the correct play, but at +10, standing did significantly better than hitting.

I see the same opinion on this decision in all of my books, regardless of the counting system, Wong, Snyder, Carlson, Bootlegger, Wattenberger, Blaine, ....

There's an index for standing on A7 vs A when the dealer stands on soft 17 and No index to stand when the dealer hits soft 17 - always hit.


As for standing on +10, well, at that point if the dealer doesn't have blackjack (not likely) then most often you'll end up at 18 or 19 anyway or else take two cards and bust out. I could see how standing at +10 may be a better option but at that count the dealer will probably have blackjack anyway.


paddy

 

[k_c]

A-7 v A (s17) mathematically

If anyone is a fan of exact calculation of blackjack expected values I have an online version of my cdca program on my website.

To get a reasonable idea of how to play A-7 versus A when dealer stands on soft 17 relative to Hi-Lo make these inputs:

1. Input 6 decks and don't change any of the initial rules or settings. Program's default is for dealer to stand on soft 17.

2. Go to shoe composition section and remove 12 each of ranks 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9, and A and 48 of rank T. This will leave you with a 156 card shoe which is equivalent to 3 full decks.

3. Remove 1 each of ranks 2,3,4,5,6 by clicking the '-' button beneath each rank.

4. Add 4 of rank T by clicking the '+' button beneath the rank T textbox 4 times.

5. Add 1 of rank A by clicking the '+' button beneath the rank A textbox once.

6. After inputting the above this will result in a 156 card shoe with 11 each (2-6), 12 each (7-9), 52 (T), and 13 (A). There will be 65 (T-A) and 55 (2-6) so running count = 65-55 = + 10. This is RC before any cards are dealt.

7. Input A-7 for player hand by clicking 'A' and '7' buttons once each in player cards section.

8. Click 'Compute' button. EV for hitting = -10.71%, EV for standing = -9.320%.

9. RC when above EVs are computed needs to be adjusted from the pre-deal RC to account for player hand and dealer up card. Therefore RC at time of player's decision is +8 because 2 aces and one seven have been removed from the initial shoe comp listed in step 6. This means Hi-Lo RC = +8 with 153 cards remaining which computes to a Hi-Lo true count of about +2.7.

The above shows that for a reasonably average 6 deck shoe where about half of the cards have been dealt that a Hi-Lo player with A-7 versus A and a TC of about +2.7 should stand when dealer stands on soft 17 and standing is better than hitting by about 1.4% more or less.

Other shoe compositions also could be computed. If shoe is reset to full and one each (2,3,4,5,6) is removed then player is very slightly better off hitting rather than standing. If one each (2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9) is removed from a full shoe then player is slightly better off standing.

Conclusion is that a Hi-Lo index of +1 is reasonable for this decision.

 

[flyingwind]

S17 and H17 differences betw Hi-Lo

Thank you k c.

Question 3.
Which Hi-Lo indices change between S17 and H17 shoes? (dealer stand on soft 17 vs hit on soft 17)