New counters, advice on adjusting BS

[Kasi]

It also radically increases your R.O.R.
What say you ?

I say it doesn't matter what the rules are because, whatever they are, however bad or good they may be, whether one chooses to use insurance or surrender if available or not, with or without indexes, ENHC or not, there is ALWAYS a way to bet to keep your risk the same vs ANY other set of rules with the same $roll.

No one, EVER, has an excuse to choose to bet in such a way as to increase one's risk.

What say you?

 

[UK-21]

I say it doesn't matter what the rules are because, whatever they are, however bad or good they may be, whether one chooses to use insurance or surrender if available or not, with or without indexes, ENHC or not, there is ALWAYS a way to bet to keep your risk the same vs ANY other set of rules with the same $roll.

No one, EVER, has an excuse to choose to bet in such a way as to increase one's risk.

What say you?

Not withstanding the table min factor, I concur.

 

[zengrifter]

I say it doesn't matter what the rules are because, whatever they are, however bad or good they may be, whether one chooses to use insurance or surrender if available or not, with or without indexes, ENHC or not, there is ALWAYS a way to bet to keep your risk the same vs ANY other set of rules with the same $roll.

No one, EVER, has an excuse to choose to bet in such a way as to increase one's risk.

What say you?

So how do you recommend these guys bet this game? zg

 

[UK-21]

Something along the lines of knowing the HE of the game in question and doing some sums beforehand?

 

[ycming]

Ah we have spent 4 days in the casino till this point:

Friday - 12 hours
Saturday - 8 hours
Sunday - 12 hours
Monday - 6 hours

So 38 hours in totaly so far and is 2 of us working on 2 tables whenever they opend both of them up!

We just flat bet at 2 quid when ever TC is 0 or below then when TC 1 we follow the bet spread. So 1 unit = £5, just at negative count we sit out or play 2 quid to minimise our lost.

Thanks for the info we will be keeping the same bet spread.

Honestly mate, can't thank you enough!!!

P.S Just notice i said we were up 305 units, it should of been 122 units up (or £610)

Ming

 

[ycming]

And newb99, do you double your 11 vs 10?

Thanks
Ming

 

[UK-21]

And newb99, do you double your 11 vs 10?

Thanks
Ming

No. Because the dealer doesn't take a hole card, if s/he pulls an ace after you've doubled you lose both bets. That's part of what makes up the increased house edge in the ENHC game (an additional 0.11%). The correct BS for ENHC can be found on the BS generator engine on this site.

If you were to keep a separate ace side count, you could make a call on whether the odds were against an ace putting an appearance in, but the consensus of contributors on this site is that for hi-lo it isn't worth the trouble.

 

[ycming]

We made another £240 (48 units) today after 8 hours of play , is just going very well recently!

That is very true, another thing if i do count the aces. At which point is worth the double? (i.e. would it profitable to double after 12 aces came out or ?)

thanks
Ming

 

[UK-21]

What do you think?

You know (or should do) the theory behind RC/TC conversions? So how can you apply this to know whether there is an above or below average chance of an ace coming out?

 

[ycming]

Was thinking inlines of a high true count, if we did have 11 and have like 15 (or so many) aces came out, is it still profitable to double down?

This is us side tracking aces as well as using the Hi-lo, if we side tracked the aces, we wouldn't just know an average but an exact number of them left. Or am i missing something important here?

Thanks
Ming

 

[rrwoods]

You are missing something here.

Apply the same things you know about RC vs TC to your ace count.

 

[UK-21]

He's right . . . think about it.

 

[ycming]

Yup, for example (for talking sake a dream situation )

Say 15 aces and it gives a RC count of +15 and with 3-4 decks left so a TC of 4 [so little number of 10s came out mainly 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9]

So would you now double 11 against a 10 ?

If i got this correct, there are only 11 aces left in the 3 deck and the chances of the dealer getting an ace is approx 11/156 = 0.0705 and the chances of me getting a high value card (10 or ace) is 24/52 = 0.46 but we already knew exactly how many aces left so 0.46 is biased towards us getting a 10

[Assuming a TC of +5 meaning per deck, there are on average 25 high value card and 15 low value card and 12 7,8,9s, hence 24/52]

And with my maximum bet on the table (8 units), i personally feel it is worth doubling, looking at only a 0.0705 probability of the dealer getting ace that will guarantee beating us and we have almost close to 0.46 to getting a 10.

If i am missing something, please explain further?

Many thanks for the advice.
Ming

 

[UK-21]

You've obviously had your calculator out which wasn't at all necessary.

Example? You have a count of "9/15" (RC=9, 15 aces have come out) and there are three decks in the discard. So that equates to = TC+3? Three decks have been played out. With an average distribution of aces throughout the 6 deck shoe, it would be expected that 12 would have come out at this point. 15 have. So there are 9 left in the remaining 3 decks - that's an average of 3 per deck, one less than expectation. So there's a less than average chance of an ace coming out?

So you have a situation where the TC=+3 (so there are an average of an additional 3 x 10s/As per deck left) but you know that the shoe is light on aces. So the TC+3 count relates to all 10s - there are an additional 9 in the shoe. You're dealt an 8,3 against a dealer 10. Double or just hit?

I don't know what the EV value of this play is, or at exactly what point it becomes advantageous to apply it - I would guess at 1 less ace per deck left in shoe with the TC being +1 or better. This would be a long term +EV play, although by how much is up for grabs - as is the question of whether it justifies the work needed to keep a separate ace side count. I'll give it some more thought over the weekend.

Perhaps other contributors could chip in, although this situation isn't one that US players will come up against, as hole cards are checked for BJs before you get the chance to double down.

Newb99

PS - I've just re-read your posting. If 15 aces have come out, there aren't going to be 11 left in the shoe, are there?

 

[ycming]

indeed you are correct we came back at 7am after a long session, true only 9 left.

I'd much prefer looking at the chances of dealer getting an ace rather than how many on average there is per deck.

those numbers was just to reinforce my point, it all seem right but just wasn't sure there is much to gain.

thanks
Ming

 

[UK-21]

You can do the sums if you want, but why? All you need to call is whether the odds are in favour of something happening or not with a fair idea of by how much - so you can make a judgement of the risk. Calculating the concentration of additional favourable cards (from the starting average of 20 per deck - 16 x 10s and 4 x As) in play is the means by which we can get that fair idea. Each additional 10 or Ace per deck left in play shifts the edge in the player's favour by around half a per cent, so a TC of +3 means the player has an edge of around 1% over the house for that hand. Working out the odds and expressing them to the nth decimal place just isn't necessary, depite what James Bond may have done when playing poker against the baddie in Casino Royale.

In the above example there is a around 9 in 156 chance of an ace hitting your hand and/or the dealers (both bad) and around 57 in 156 chance of a ten doing so (both good) - I say "around" as the odds will change slightly as each card is dealt out - if you pulled an ace the dealer would then be less likely to pull one.

"I'd much prefer looking at the chances of dealer getting an ace rather than how many on average there is per deck".

As you can see above, both factors are inter-related. If you didn't convert your RC to a TC, thereby ascertaining the increased concentration of favourable cards, the count becomes meaningless - it would indicate when there were additional favourable cards in play but not whether you had an advantage or not (an RC of 4 still means you're playing with a disadvantage if there are five decks in play, but an advantage if there are two).

Hope this helps. You did ask.

 

[UK-21]

As an adjunt to this ace side count discussion:-

I've pulled Mr Schlesinger's BJA off of the bookshelf and looked at one of the tables. It indicates that for every 100,000 hands dealt 1,363 will be a player 11 against a dealer's 10 (1.36%) - page 126, 1st Edn. On my TC distribution chart it shows that 26% of hands dealt (based on a 2 million hand sim) will be at TC+1 or better. So if we use averages that means that out of every 100,000 hands only 1,363 x 26% (354) will be the example 11v10 at TC+1 or better. If we are generous and say the coincidence of this happening with a deficiency of 1 Ace or more per deck left to play is 20%, this brings it down to 71 per 100,000 hands.

So out of every 10,000 hands (140 hours of play?) on average the opportunity to make this advantage play will happen 7 times. Of that, you'll push some, win some and lose some, although over the longer term you'll win more than you lose. Again, based on broad assumptions (winning 5 out of every 7 doubled up bets) with a £5 unit spreading 1-8 I have calculated it's worth about 2p a hand (or roughly £1.50 and hour) over the longer term.

As has been stated by others, for the average recreational counter playing a 6 deck shoe (even when using an ace side count for other decisions) it doesn't seem worth the bother. It's tweaking at the sides of the advantage that card counting can give.

Perhaps I should write a sticky thread on the vagueries of the UK ENHC game?

 

[ycming]

cool cool cheers, I never found counting aces and keeping a count to be a hard thing and if we are only getting 1% advantage over the house at a TC of +3, IMO everything advantage will help .

Anyway an update, we are making no progress what so ever, we are still floating around the 1k profit mark!

It is getting really fustrating no progress and long hours!

How do people deal with this? Keep grinding? take a break ?

Thanks
Ming

 

[UK-21]

I think you and your mate should take your thousand pounds and go and visit somewhere different. I've just discovered you can book a 7 day Nile cruise, all in, for £499. That's got to be more interesting than spending hours and hours in a casino?

The Blackjack table will still be around when you get back.

 

[ycming]

hmm, yup we have decided to take a break and resume after he is back from Canada.

More details on this Nile cruise ? Like how to book and what sort of BJ do they have?

Thanks
Ming