Odds of losing 20 hands in a row without any pushes?

Nightshifter

Well-Known Member
#1
Hello!

Hope everyone is well! Just wondering what numbers anyone can come up with of the odds of losing 20 hands in a row with another player at the table (who won and lost a few). I was at Barona after a dry spell ... going out for the first time in a while... bought in for $2000 at the $100 min game (1/5th of my session roll which is 1/10th of my Bankroll). I was going up and down between 4 to $500... then someone else sat down and they put in a new dealer. I kid you not, over the next 3 shoes (double deck hand dealt) I lost the next 20 hands of $100 each... the count remained slightly negative to neutral so I never increased my bet. So... there went part my session roll... :) Wow what a way to start after not playing for a while.... I was mostly getting 2 card stiffs and breaking or the dealer wiping out my 20s hitting to 21. The other player was not doing that bad at all... Should of sat at third base :p LOL
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#2
Although Barona has a reputation as a first-class casino, you can never rule out cheating by a rogue dealer (or with house approval) at a hand-dealt game. They are extremely good at spotting counters, and while they thought that they knew you were a counter and brought in a mechanic seems highly unlikely, losing 20 hands in a row is even more so!

You lose (without a push) about 48% of hands. To lose 20 in a row, upon the arrival of the new dealer, is simply 0.48^20, or one chance in 2.37 million!

I have friends at Barona, and I don't take saying this lightly, but if what you're describing is true, it sounds like you were cheated.

Don
 

gronbog

Well-Known Member
#3
My personal record is 23 hands in a row. But to have this happen over the course of one's lifetime is much different and more likely than having it happen precisely at the time the dealer was changed.
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#5
21forme said:
You'd say that about any casino that has your picture on the wall :)
Ha! Actually, I'd have said that about Barona BEFORE they put my picture on the wall. Seriously, I'm conflicted about my answer. I would not feel comfortable saying that anyone at Barona cheated as a house policy. Could a rogue dealer have done this on his own? I'm sure the answer is yes. It just has a lousy feel to have brought in a new dealer and for this to have happened. Twenty in a row is a lot of hands to lose.

I once lost that many but with a slightly different scenario. I was playing two hands of max bets (so much less likely for any hand to lose!) in the HL room at Caesars A.C. I lost ten pairs of hands (so 20 hands) in a row. Twenty max bets! OUCH! Now, this was, obviously, against only 10 dealer upcards, but I still had 20 separate hands that had to lose. Pit boss couldn't believe what he was seeing and kept wondering why I wouldn't get up and leave. I began wondering too! :)

Don
 

The G Man

Well-Known Member
#6
Well... the question may also be: did Nightshifter really lost 20 hands in a row ?
Did he count them one at a time or is he rounding a 15-16 losing streak to 20 ?
Using 16 hands and we get a very different results: Say once in 1260 hours.
 

Nightshifter

Well-Known Member
#7
No... i lost 20 in a row over a few shoes (2 deck). Took me down all the way and wiped out my session roll :/ Anyway... just recovering from this and playing again. Yeah you never know...

I encountered a cheat on the strip who was tipping me off on the hole card as long as I placed a $25 bet for him. He also was peeking (this was very obvious) and slapping himself a card to bust himself. The pit must of known, because they were watching and laughing somewhat. You could hear the cheat... it was that bad.

If the pit knows, then the EITS knows...
 

Nightshifter

Well-Known Member
#8
gronbog said:
My personal record is 23 hands in a row. But to have this happen over the course of one's lifetime is much different and more likely than having it happen precisely at the time the dealer was changed.
I agree!
DSchles said:
Ha! Actually, I'd have said that about Barona BEFORE they put my picture on the wall. Seriously, I'm conflicted about my answer. I would not feel comfortable saying that anyone at Barona cheated as a house policy. Could a rogue dealer have done this on his own? I'm sure the answer is yes. It just has a lousy feel to have brought in a new dealer and for this to have happened. Twenty in a row is a lot of hands to lose.

I once lost that many but with a slightly different scenario. I was playing two hands of max bets (so much less likely for any hand to lose!) in the HL room at Caesars A.C. I lost ten pairs of hands (so 20 hands) in a row. Twenty max bets! OUCH! Now, this was, obviously, against only 10 dealer upcards, but I still had 20 separate hands that had to lose. Pit boss couldn't believe what he was seeing and kept wondering why I wouldn't get up and leave. I began wondering too! :)

Don
Hello Don!

Well maybe... but i don't know... I was just playing at Harrah's and dropped another 2800.00 @ Double Deck $50 Limit. I'm down nearly $7000 overall since I started playing again as of last month. Mostly the samething though... a lot of stiffs and dealer pulling 21's against my 20's :/. I would have a pair of 10's and the dealer would hit to a 6,5 with a 2 and then an 8... this has happened several times... same cards too! :/. However this was more like win 1 hand and lose the next 6 or 7 in a row... win 1 hand lose the next 5 in a row scenario. I was at first base and another counter was at 3rd. He was playing one hand when the count became negative... then would parlay up to 2 hands when the TC became ~ +3 or more. He was doing great... The BJ's were falling in his area all the time (or the dealers) and he wasn't breaking when hitting his stiffs. Maybe I should start sitting @ 3rd base more often ;)
 

The G Man

Well-Known Member
#9
Nightshifter said:
I was at first base and another counter was at 3rd. He was playing one hand when the count became negative... then would parlay up to 2 hands when the TC became ~ +3 or more. He was doing great... The BJ's were falling in his area all the time (or the dealers) and he wasn't breaking when hitting his stiffs. Maybe I should start sitting @ 3rd base more often ;)
So, you're eating low cards for another counter at the table and wonder why you are getting killed ???
 

Nightshifter

Well-Known Member
#11
Well... played again last night @ PALA and dropped another $2000 at the 50 min 2 Deck. One thing I hate is when I have to deviate from Basic Strategy and the other player (who was next to her husband) starts getting scared of me thinking I'm messing up the game... pulls out of the game and just watches thinking that I'm going to lose all my chips soon... waiting for me to leave before she plays again. Anyway I did lose another session which brings me to about ~10k which is one trip bankroll so it looks like I'm not going to play for a while. One thing about this game was the extreme negative counts time and time again ... why i was hitting a lot of stiffs vs. dealers low card. You have -18 and 1 deck left.. that's minus 18 and an AP is going to hit hands like 14 vs.5 15 vs. 3 13 vs 6... lol!
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#12
Nightshifter said:
You have -18 and 1 deck left.. that's minus 18 and an AP is going to hit hands like 14 vs.5 15 vs. 3 13 vs 6... lol!
The last time I played -18 with one deck remaining.....well I have never and would never play that count. :oops: Seriously, why would you play that? Even if playing double deck, if the count goes bad, after I lose a hand I will say something like this shuffle sucks I am waiting for the new one. If I am the only one playing I will ask for a shuffle. If they say no, I leave. I just am not playing any count of -18. (or even -6) You guys that play all using all these negative index plays....well I don't even know what the index number is for hitting 15 vs 3. I don't want to know what the index number is for hitting 15 vs 3 is. :eek: I am not suggesting playing thru all is going to account for all the losing in these losing periods that you are describing....but it contributes.

Now as far as making plays that drive others away, that is one of my favorite things.....when the count is positive. :cool: Stand on your 15 vs 10 (when no surrender) or double a 8 vs 5 that doesn't work out that someone gets pissed and sits out or exits, while I go on to win a number of rounds at a positive count and get more rounds in because they left or sat out....just really warms my insides a little extra.
 
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The G Man

Well-Known Member
#13
Nightshifter said:
Maybe... but i've seen the reverse also to be true... sitting at 3rd and 1st base getting all the goods :p
You simply don't understand how Blackjack works. It's not the fact that you sit at third or first base that makes the difference. It's the fact that you play 50% of the hands in negative counts and only 33% in positive situation while your "other counter" gets 67% of the good cards. The result is that you are "working for him" at no salary!
 

Nightshifter

Well-Known Member
#14
KewlJ said:
The last time I played -18 with one deck remaining.....well I have never and would never play that count. :oops: Seriously, why would you play that? Even if playing double deck, if the count goes bad, after I lose a hand I will say something like this shuffle sucks I am waiting for the new one. If I am the only one playing I will ask for a shuffle. If they say no, I leave. I just am not playing any count of -18. (or even -6) You guys that play all using all these negative index plays....well I don't even know what the index number is for hitting 15 vs 3. I don't want to know what the index number is for hitting 15 vs 3 is. :eek: I am not suggesting playing thru all is going to account for all the losing in these losing periods that you are describing....but it contributes.

Now as far as making plays that drive others away, that is one of my favorite things.....when the count is positive. :cool: Stand on your 15 vs 10 (when no surrender) or double a 8 vs 5 that doesn't work out that someone gets pissed and sits out or exits, while I go on to win a number of rounds at a positive count and get more rounds in because they left or sat out....just really warms my insides a little extra.
one thing I noticed at a particular casino was there were 3 or 4 successive rounds of low cards every shoe for a while. I pointed this out to the pit boss and he simply said that they don’t wash the cards and only give them one shuffle before putting in them in the machine, so this happens for the while until the cards get randomized by the machine. I was shocked that he said that because I told him that’s not fair for the players! The cards should be washed and shuffled thoroughly before putting them in the machine! So… it seems like they are encouraging card clumping for a percentage of the time which year after year would contribute to their advantage don’t you think? He told me he would bring it up to management and then shrugged me off lol!
 

BJgenius007

Well-Known Member
#15
Nightshifter said:
one thing I noticed at a particular casino was there were 3 or 4 successive rounds of low cards every shoe for a while. I pointed this out to the pit boss and he simply said that they don’t wash the cards and only give them one shuffle before putting in them in the machine, so this happens for the while until the cards get randomized by the machine. I was shocked that he said that because I told him that’s not fair for the players! The cards should be washed and shuffled thoroughly before putting them in the machine! So… it seems like they are encouraging card clumping for a percentage of the time which year after year would contribute to their advantage don’t you think? He told me he would bring it up to management and then shrugged me off lol!
The pit boss was lying to you. It is the feature of ASM since 2012. And with every generation of software upgrade, the machine is getting smarter on clumping. If no shuffle or just one pass inside the machine, why does ASM spend 7.5 minutes to shuffle a six deck? I met more and more ploppies who only now play hand-shuffled BJ because even ploppies notice the clumps coming from ASM. They don't count cards but they know they should not trust ASM shuffling cards randomly. Typical clumps are ace clumps to reduce BJ rate, face card clump to force push when TC are high (situation that should be advantageous to players) and small card clump to make dealer easier to make hand. All the three types of clumps increase house advantage. Even ploppies (especially those who play Basic strategy) feel it. The only ones that can get lucky are those who play randomly.
 
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BJgenius007

Well-Known Member
#17
DSchles said:
Fiction.

Don
I think Don is too busy selling his book and has never stepped into any casino in the past five or six years. By the way, the playing style he promotes in his book is only applicable before 2014. Since then, casinos are getting much smarter.
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#18
BJgenius007 said:
By the way, the playing style he promotes in his book is only applicable before 2014. Since then, casinos are getting much smarter.
What is the playing style Don promotes?
 

BJgenius007

Well-Known Member
#19
KewlJ said:
What is the playing style Don promotes?
White rabbit. Sit out negative counts. Unless living in Las Vegas, most people only access to the few local casinos of theirs. Why not just tattoo I am a Counter on the forehead.
 
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Nightshifter

Well-Known Member
#20
BJgenius007 said:
The pit boss was lying to you. It is the feature of ASM since 2012. And with every generation of software upgrade, the machine is getting smarter on clumping. If no shuffle or just one pass inside the machine, why does ASM spend 7.5 minutes to shuffle a six deck? I met more and more ploppies who only now play hand-shuffled BJ because even ploppies notice the clumps coming from ASM. They don't count cards but they know they should not trust ASM shuffling cards randomly. Typical clumps are ace clumps to reduce BJ rate, face card clump to force push when TC are high (situation that should be advantageous to players) and small card clump to make dealer easier to make hand. All the three types of clumps increase house advantage. Even ploppies (especially those who play Basic strategy) feel it. The only ones that can get lucky are those who play randomly.
How would you exploit this?
 
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