overbetting?

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
#1
When counters refer to overbetting.

1: Are they talking about, overbetting in proportion to our advantage?

2:Betting correctly, however, over betting in proportion to thier stake?

There seems to be a bit of confusion about overbetting, is this because the word has two different meanings? Could someone help clarify the difference.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#2
If by stake you mean total bankroll, then both. Optimum bet is computed with both your total bankroll, and your advantage on that particular hand.

If by stake you mean session bankroll, then it's mushier. You'd probably want to bet little enough so that you can still split/double a hand if you need to. Most people usually refer to total bankroll.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#3
jack said:
When counters refer to overbetting.

1: Are they talking about, overbetting in proportion to our advantage?

2:Betting correctly, however, over betting in proportion to thier stake?

There seems to be a bit of confusion about overbetting, is this because the word has two different meanings? Could someone help clarify the difference.
As to #1, I guess it depends on ur total bankroll, bet ramp, game played, how u r playing it, etc and what ROR u r willing to accept in exchange for winning more per hour.

To me, if ur a counter and an AP, ur gonna know ahead of time how u want to bet for what game, accept that ROR compared to ur roll, and then play like a robot. So it's impossible to overbet until u maybe re-size ur bets after some losses if u want.

Ur gonna know how ur risk changes if the game changes from 70% to 80% or 60% penetration and then either change ur unit or quit the game or accept the risk.

As to #2 I don't see how both are possible. Either u know what ROR u r taking when u bet what and how compared to ur total roll or u don't. If u do, then u r willing to accept that risk and are not overbetting. If u don't, then ur just adding or subtracting 1 from the RC thinking u r an advantage player because u can count in a vaccuum but r clueless as to the effects of how u bet how much at what count in what game.

But of course that's just my theoretical point of view since, while I count, I don't consider myself an AP since I know I don't spread enuf to beat the game I'm playing and I know it.

How can a counter say he's "overbetting" without knowing what "overbetting" is? If he knew what it was, he wouldn't be doing it, would he?
 

bj bob

Well-Known Member
#4
My take on this

I believe that case#1 refers to a "one time" overbet during a deck/shoe where you have miscalculated your bet due to TC conversion/ deck estimation. I been in that boat before. To me it's only a minor thing and can be quickly rectified by the next hand.
The second scenario is more fundamentally serious. It implies that your ratio of max. bets to bankroll is out of whack and we all know what disaster that is likely to bring about.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#5
bj bob said:
I believe that case#1 refers to a "one time" overbet during a deck/shoe where you have miscalculated your bet due to TC conversion/ deck estimation. I been in that boat before. To me it's only a minor thing and can be quickly rectified by the next hand.
Absolutely, I agree with you. No big deal at all. After all it's not like we can bet $38.37 on the next hand even if we knew it was the right bet lol.

Of course how u know u mis-calculated ur prior bet/TC/deck estimation is beyond me. U just made ur best decision at the time based on what u think it was. Do we ever know when we just screwed up and had the wrong TC?

For me, in a close decision, after I lose, I figure I figured it out wrong :)
 

positiveEV

Well-Known Member
#6
Practice a lot on the computer, it will tell you when you screw up. When you do no mistakes at all on the computer, you can assume you are making few mistakes in actual play. Always keep track of your wins/looses, the number of hands you play (estimate) and the average EV you should be getting. If the theoretical wins are really far away from your actual results after many hands, you can figure out that something is wrong.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#7
asiafever said:
Practice a lot on the computer, it will tell you when you screw up. When you do no mistakes at all on the computer, you can assume you are making few mistakes in actual play.
For sure.

I just meant how one knows from one round to the next that one made a mistake in the round before.

No big deal - I guess u might know if u just had a brain cramp and divided wrong, used the wrong denominator, forgot the index number and knew it, etc.

And I couldn't agree with u more about comparing actual to expected!
 
Top