Reducing bets

bj bob

bj bob

Well-Known Member
I have read lots of sound advice regarding excessively increasing bet size, but what about the reverse? Here's the scenario... I'm playing 2D with 2 other players(Pen is now 40%) I've just won 2 consecutive hands, last with a 4 unit max.The deck is now+5 and now I go to 2 hands @4(O! Happy Day!) Now the dealer shows 10, I've got XX and X9(yea! me)the guy on my right gets a BJ and the left gets 88. He splits, gets X on each and stands.The dealer now flips a 7 and eveyone's happy, right? But now what? The deck is now negative and I don't want an 8U exposure. What would you guys do? I really don't want to leave the table or bring attention by radicaaly reducing my next bet. bj
 
You definitely don't want to place another big bet with a negative count. So either choose leaving or reducing your bet. If you're going to bet wrong according to the count for cover, do it very rarely.
 
bj bob said:
I have read lots of sound advice regarding excessively increasing bet size, but what about the reverse? Here's the scenario... I'm playing 2D with 2 other players(Pen is now 40%) I've just won 2 consecutive hands, last with a 4 unit max.The deck is now+5 and now I go to 2 hands @4(O! Happy Day!) Now the dealer shows 10, I've got XX and X9(yea! me)the guy on my right gets a BJ and the left gets 88. He splits, gets X on each and stands.The dealer now flips a 7 and eveyone's happy, right? But now what? The deck is now negative and I don't want an 8U exposure. What would you guys do? I really don't want to leave the table or bring attention by radicaaly reducing my next bet. bj
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Well bj bob while I am certinly not a definitive expert on bet spreads I would have played the hand by going to 2 hands of 3 units instead of 4 then it would be easier to drop to one hand of 2 units when the count went neg. Hopefully some of the senior members will weigh in with advice.
 
bj bob said:
I have read lots of sound advice regarding excessively increasing bet size, but what about the reverse? Here's the scenario... I'm playing 2D with 2 other players(Pen is now 40%) I've just won 2 consecutive hands, last with a 4 unit max.The deck is now+5 and now I go to 2 hands @4(O! Happy Day!) Now the dealer shows 10, I've got XX and X9(yea! me)the guy on my right gets a BJ and the left gets 88. He splits, gets X on each and stands.The dealer now flips a 7 and eveyone's happy, right? But now what? The deck is now negative and I don't want an 8U exposure. What would you guys do? I really don't want to leave the table or bring attention by radicaaly reducing my next bet. bj
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The best thing to probably do would be one unit x2. It wouldnt be too radical, and it would not hurt your EV as much as betting 2units x1. I'm not 100% sure on this, but that is what i would do.
 
bj bob said:
I have read lots of sound advice regarding excessively increasing bet size, but what about the reverse? Here's the scenario... I'm playing 2D with 2 other players(Pen is now 40%) I've just won 2 consecutive hands, last with a 4 unit max.The deck is now+5 and now I go to 2 hands @4(O! Happy Day!) Now the dealer shows 10, I've got XX and X9(yea! me)the guy on my right gets a BJ and the left gets 88. He splits, gets X on each and stands.The dealer now flips a 7 and eveyone's happy, right? But now what? The deck is now negative and I don't want an 8U exposure. What would you guys do? I really don't want to leave the table or bring attention by radicaaly reducing my next bet. bj
Click to expand...
Based on the exact scenario you describe - ONLY IF I had reason to be in 'stealth mode' (ie, suscpect scrutiny), I would absolutely bet the 2x4u again (and again). If I felt no reason for concern I would drop back to 1u. Knowing the difference comes with much experience and I still get over confident and get nailed.

But the main thing to grasp is in an extreme situation of successive winning +count max bets you give back VERY LITTLE EV by continuing to bet into the neg-count with max until you lose. That is one of the many ways that seperate an amateur from a pro counter. zg
 
thanks for the tip

I appreciate your imput ZG. I guess what you are saying is that (with heat) to let "The good times roll" until you lose a hand. That's pretty much what I've been doing for the most part. I just start to get paranoid(especially after reading about you all) if I change a bet,either up or down.By the way, when you say you still get nailed, is it because you lose the hand or get the front door exit escort by the pit bull, uh boss?
 
bj bob said:
I appreciate your imput ZG. I guess what you are saying is that (with heat) to let "The good times roll" until you lose a hand. That's pretty much what I've been doing for the most part. I just start to get paranoid(especially after reading about you all) if I change a bet,either up or down.By the way, when you say you still get nailed, is it because you lose the hand or get the front door exit escort by the pit bull, uh boss?
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No not losing the bet, thats a coin toss. When I get nailed its typically because I played too often or too long on the same shift and I dropped my cover too much.

There are numerous valid strategies that involve making big bets in apparent or actual neg-counts, including Snyder's Depth Charging, my own Grifter's Gambit, Sklansky's Gambit, Opposition Betting, and the several variants of each.

A modest use of this theme is in the familiar scenario where the player has max bet out, wins, then dealer shuffles. Some amateurs compulsively yank their bet back as if they will get caught with it out if they don't move fast. Some of those are the most obvious counters.

Some other amateurs are a bit slower and try to appear casual like they are counting their chips, but they still wind up with the reduced bet and they didn't fool anyone.

In this simple example the pro leaves his big bet out after the shuffle and will continue to place the big bet until he loses it no matter how neg the count goes.

Certain types of shuffle tracking also can appear to make big bets in neg-EV. zg
 
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