Resizing bets

[rollem411]

Alright, say you drive about an hour to your local casino with your trip bankroll for the day...lets say $1,000. How many people here would resize your bets according to your losing streak?

For example, you go down about $200 after a hour of play. Why stop and reassess your BR because you don't want to cash out early if you have bad flux? I feel as if you should just stick with the gameplan and not change your bets according to the money in your pocket. Not really a question, but just a subject of interest to me.

 

[EasyRhino]

The main factor is how much longer do you want to be able to play? If your 'trip' is still going to last for a while longer, then it may force a resize.

I haven't had to do it for a while, for a few reasons:

1) I usually bring too much money
2) I have a "backstop" of a large ATM limit.
3) More play is local, where if I do bust and and run out of cash, then I can stop early only a limited travel penalty.

So, when I have had to resize downward, it's been in a "near-tapout" situation where I'm just trying to ensure that I can make it through the end of the shoe.

The most important thing, of course, is not not overbet according to your total bankroll (or you overall risk tolerance), and not to underbet just because you're experiencing bad luck.

 

[shadroch]

Figure that the unlikely will happen,and a seemingly innocent split will result in a third split,followed by at least two double down situations. For example: a pair of 8s with a max bet out is followed by a third 8,and you draw a 3 on two of the eights.Obviously you want to be certain to have enough to cover such a situation.If your original BR was sized at ten big bets,and you've lost 30% of it,you are in deep doodo if you haven't resized your bet,and lose all these hands.You're now down to 20% of your original BR,and can't even truly afford another defensive split.

 

[Sonny]

Unless your trip bankroll is a significant proportion of your total bankroll, don’t resize. As long as your total bankroll can sustain that level of betting then continue with your bet spread in this case. You don’t want to lower your EV after a typical negative swing. If you reach a point where you can’t safely place any more bets then just drive home early. It’s only an hour away. You can always come back with a bigger trip bankroll next time.

-Sonny-

 

[shadroch]

Sonny,
In the situation I described,with $1,000 BR and being down $300,you wouldn't resize your max bet? How about if you were down $500? At what point do you worry about having enough to handle multiple splits and DDs?Or do you think they are so rare that they shouldn't factor in to your line of thought?

 

[Sonny]

In the situation I described,with $1,000 BR and being down $300,you wouldn't resize your max bet?

Nah, that’s nothing. I’ve still got $700 in my pocket and (presumably) much more an hour away at home.

How about if you were down $500?

I would assume a $1k trip bankroll would be for a nickel player, so that’s still 10 max bets of $50. I’d feel alright with that, especially if I was backcounting.

At what point do you worry about having enough to handle multiple splits and DDs?

Personally, I wouldn’t want to have less than 4-5 max bets in my pocket. If it dips below that then I would seriously worry about being able to finish the next hand, and even then it’s pretty risky because you might have to walk away from a positive count. In this case I would get worried if my trip bankroll got near $250. At that point I would think about packing it in and heading home. Ideally you should have enough money with you to cover the length of your trip, but in an emergency you might have to cut things short if you’re not prepared.

-Sonny-

 

[shadroch]

It looks like I'm a bit more conservative than you. I also try to play a session with 10X my big bet,so a 1,000 BR would be ten $100 bets.

 

[Sonny]

Safer is always better. But if your trip BR falls below 10 big bets (or whatever your cutoff point may be) do you resize your bets or do you quit until you have more money? That seems to be the question. I would rather go home and plan my next attack than continue to play at a reduced EV. It’s just too frustrating to win my money back twice as slowly as I lost it. I’d rather have my comeback be as strong as possible.

-Sonny-

 

[shadroch]

It’s just too frustrating to win my money back twice as slowly as I lost it. I’d rather have my comeback be as strong as possible.

-Sonny-[/QUOTE]

Isn't this why God gave us the Martingale?:whip:

 

[jack.jackson]

When Im playing at home at my kitchen table and playing a -.37 H/A,face-up,DD,60% pen,A02 count, play all,Infinite BR,1-10(10-100) spread, w/ 1 or 2 ghost players, I usually have no problem turning 1,000 into 26,000 in 3 or 4 months play(Typicaly 4hrs a day)

1. Profit=25,000(250 max bet BR)

Once I reach this milestone, I will parlay my winnings(upsizing my bets/units)
into a 1:8 spread, (25-200) 200 divided by 25,000=125 max bets BR(note: Since this is playing for play money Im willing to sacrifice RoR somewhat. If this was for real money I would be much more conservative)

If I drop 25 max bets(5,000) BR, is now 20,000) I will re-downsize my bets back to 10-100 until I win back 50 max bets or 5,000 to get my BR back up to 25,000 before I attempt to parlay my bet units again.

Should I start winning and keep winning I will play until Ive reached a BR of the 50,000$ milestone, before I even consider the 50/400 spread(1:8)
Which once again I have 125 max bet, BR to play on, and once again if I lose 25 max bets I downsize to 25-200 and play that until I reach the 50,000 mark again.(note: I would definitely be more conservative when playing for real money)

Its been about a year since Ive used the A02 count, and went on these crazy 9-12 months streches with detailed results. Im currently using/learning a L3 count and Im a week into it at about 73 units up(was at 130) but its been slowly grinding downward for about the last 8 hrs.

Excuse my explantion, I was merely trying to show how I go about up-sizing and down-sizing your units/bets should work in general.

 

[moo321]

I'd rather bring half of my total roll than risk tapping out in the middle of a trip. Under no circumstances should you ever be at a casino, wanting to play, without money. If there's a risk of that happening, you should re-structue where your bankroll is stored (get it into a checking account or something), so that you can write a check if need be.

 

[Sonny]

Isn't this why God gave us the Martingale?:whip:

God didn’t give us the Martingale, it was the other guy. :devil:

I just can’t justify lowering my bets after a small loss when I know that I’ve got the same advantage and bankroll that I had before. That’s like the ploppies who lower their bets after losing a few hands and leave the table after losing a few in a row. There’s no reason to think that the losses will continue, so why would I lower my bets? If I don’t have enough money to continue playing then I’ll quit until I get more, but I don’t want to play with an unacceptable EV just so that I can stay in action. That just means I have to play much longer before I can expect to dig myself out of the hole.

-Sonny-

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Safer is always better. But if your trip BR falls below 10 big bets (or whatever your cutoff point may be) do you resize your bets or do you quit until you have more money? That seems to be the question. I would rather go home and plan my next attack than continue to play at a reduced EV. It’s just too frustrating to win my money back twice as slowly as I lost it. I’d rather have my comeback be as strong as possible.

-Sonny-

That's one way of looking at it, but when you're a part-timer and you're already at the casino, you've already spent money to get there and the time you have alloted to play has already been alloted. All assuming there's nothing better to do at home, which when I'm at the casino, there usually isn't.

Airplane trips are a different story too- if I've already spent $500 to get to a venue there's no way I'm going to let myself run out of funds and stop playing. Fortunately I've never come too close to that; funding requirements are a lot more serious for that kind of trip than for an overnight trip to Foxwoods.

You can play a hand with as little as 2 bets available that will allow you to either double or split, but at that point it's important to remember you're now playing a non-DAS game for that hand and your advantage has decreased accordingly, assuming it was a DAS game to begin with.

 

[Sonny]

That's one way of looking at it, but when you're a part-timer and you're already at the casino, you've already spent money to get there and the time you have alloted to play has already been alloted.

That’s true, but in this case the casino is only an hour away. That must be nice.

You can play a hand with as little as 2 bets available that will allow you to either double or split, but at that point it's important to remember you're now playing a non-DAS game for that hand and your advantage has decreased accordingly, assuming it was a DAS game to begin with.

It’s also a no-resplit game. Those two rules alone can drop your advantage by .24%, which might make you rethink the size of that bet you just made. As you said, funding requirements are a very important thing to consider when planning a trip. Your example is a great case in point.

-Sonny-

 

[Bojack1]

Safer is always better. But if your trip BR falls below 10 big bets (or whatever your cutoff point may be) do you resize your bets or do you quit until you have more money? That seems to be the question. I would rather go home and plan my next attack than continue to play at a reduced EV. It’s just too frustrating to win my money back twice as slowly as I lost it. I’d rather have my comeback be as strong as possible.

-Sonny-

I definitely subscribe to your way of thinking here Sonny. I don't care if I can't play if I am no longer playing at my desired E.V. level. I have even taken it to extremes. Though it rarely happens there have been times when my team has been on the verge of tapping out our trip bankroll. Although for the most part we do have access for a trip replenishing of funds, there have been times where we were not able to for one reason or another. Its times like this where a decision is made to keep pushing foward or back off. We do not back off. We have tapped out exactly once. We have also had some of our best trips coming from far behind like that. To each his own and I believe there are valid points to others playing it more conservatively to milk out the trip given similar circumstances. As far as me and my team, we play as planned until the trip is over, whether that be at the time that was originally expected, or when the funds won't allow any more play. Playing properly funded is what I believe the key to this situation is. It should be a rare occurence to tap out a trip bankroll, as well as tapping one out should not cripple your total bankroll. If either happens on a fairly regular basis I would either reconsider my money management guidelines, quality of games being played, even proficiency of system and how its being used. Unfortunately losing is part of the game, being afraid of that won't help.