ROR question
- Thread starter (2deep)
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That would be a 1-10 spread.(2deep) said:
It depends on what game you are playing and how you are playing it.
There's no one answer based on what you say. You could spread $10-$100 with with $10K and your risk could vary all over the place in different games with different pen etc.
If you are playing-all hands, a 1000 unit roll simply will not yield a 5% ROR with a 1-10 or 1-12 or even a 1-16 spred.(2deep) said:
My guess is you need more units - maybe 1400-1500 or so.
Exact rules of your 6D game would make a difference as would whether you use indexes or not. If pen increased, that would also make a difference.
Simple answer, buy a sim and you'll still have $9900 left of your roll and it might help you decide things lol.
lol thx but what if i divide by bankroll by 500 to get my betting unit
and then when im playing i would take the true count and subtract the offest which = 1
and then multiply that number by the unit.
like say i have a $50,000 bankroll i would divide it by $500 and get $100 as my betting unit and if the true count was +3 i would subtract the offset and get +2 and then bet $200 on that hand.
and i would change my betting unit in between trips and after a large swing.
Would this strategy be effective and have a low ROR?
and then when im playing i would take the true count and subtract the offest which = 1
and then multiply that number by the unit.
like say i have a $50,000 bankroll i would divide it by $500 and get $100 as my betting unit and if the true count was +3 i would subtract the offset and get +2 and then bet $200 on that hand.
and i would change my betting unit in between trips and after a large swing.
Would this strategy be effective and have a low ROR?
Actually what your describing is the old MIT system of betting. It will yield a low ROR, it is an ultra conservative approach. The problem with it is that the betting ramp is not really what you will find to be optimal. Most ramps will find you getting max bets out at a TC of 4 or 5. With this system you will not be getting out very many max or large bets out as you will find rare instances that you will find TC's reaching in the 7 and beyond range. The key to this system is having a large enough bankroll that your minimum bet is less then your unit size but can still be big enough to be able to meet at least the table minimum.(2deep) said:
For example, what was common was to have a unit spread of 1-6, while still having a bet spread of 1-12. If you had a unit of $20 you would bet $10 in neutral and slightly negative counts ( important here to not play too many hands at a TC below -1) and once the TC reached 2 you would start laying out a 1 unit bet, raising it as you said, TC -1 to give you your betting unit. The problem as I said earlier is your max bet will only be coming out at a TC of 7 and that won't give you a lot of max bets. The good side to it is you will be betting proportionate to your advantage and at around .5 kelly with 500 units as a bankroll, at what would be much less than a 13.5% ROR. The down side is a loss of EV due to the less than optimal betting ramp. I have recommended this for 2 kinds of players. Those who have very large bankrolls that are not repenishable where the unit size is large enough it makes for decent earnings anyway, as well as low risk. My team has used this method in quite a few situations, except we are playing at even a more conservative Kelly coefficient then even .5. Or for those that are new to counting and haven't grasped how to lay out the optimal method of play. This system will gaurantee a positive expectation no sim required, just maybe not the one with the highest earning potential. I will confess I have pushed this way of betting on many that have played due to the fact I was assuming most weren't putting the time in to lay out there games. I have since been proven wrong by many here as I have seen some impressive displays of detail in game preparation. That is a good thing. For those who still wing it with just the knowledge of how to count, this method is for you.
EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
Bojack, I'm a little confused about how a bet ramp which doesn't continue scaling bets proportionally with the advantage would be "less optimal" than one that has max bets being hit sooner?
The main knock I always had against tweaking bets in the +7 +9 range is that it just doesn't matter anymore, those counts are so rare, regardless of optimality.
The main knock I always had against tweaking bets in the +7 +9 range is that it just doesn't matter anymore, those counts are so rare, regardless of optimality.
This strategy works best if your unit is more than the table minimum, preferably at least double. So if you want to divide your bankroll by 500 to find your unit, and you come up with only $10, it will be really hard to find tables consistently under $10 to play. Of course if you are disciplined enough, you could strictly backcount and not play anything but hands with an advantage, which would make it possible to do. But like I said before this strategy is better suited for someone like you. Someone who may know how to count but may not know how to set up the game. This will give you a positive game until you learn how to fine tune your play based on the rules of the game and your preference on risk and EV.(2deep) said:
As far as the betting strategy I find best, thats a general question I can't answer. It will change with different games and venues and style of play. I will say I prefer to keep my risk very low, and not worry so much about maxing out EV. I will try to get the best EV out of the risk I am willing to take, and accept that as opposed to raising risk for higher gains. I suggest investing in some simulation software, that will allow you to really customize your strategy to the game you're playing. Casino Verite products will have everything you need to accomplish what you're looking for.
o ight thx
and in blackjack blueprint Rick Blaine writes about optimal betting but i dont really understand it all the way
if playing hi lo in 6 deck games
he says to get the betting unit by dividing the bankroll by 100 to get the max bet because your bankroll should have 100 max bets
and having a true count of +3 or less bet 1 unit
+3 = 1 unit
+4 = 2 units
+6 = 3
+8 = 4
+10 = 5
+12 = 6 units
so would this betting strategy be effective and have around a 5% ROR
and in blackjack blueprint Rick Blaine writes about optimal betting but i dont really understand it all the way
if playing hi lo in 6 deck games
he says to get the betting unit by dividing the bankroll by 100 to get the max bet because your bankroll should have 100 max bets
and having a true count of +3 or less bet 1 unit
+3 = 1 unit
+4 = 2 units
+6 = 3
+8 = 4
+10 = 5
+12 = 6 units
so would this betting strategy be effective and have around a 5% ROR
I can see what you're saying here. The key to me would be the above where you say it is important to not play too many negative hands. In effect, it sounds like modified back-counting approach but maybe with an entry point of say TC-1? If so, you are no longer playing 100 hands of every 100 hands seen.Bojack1 said:
So 500 units could very well be giving a low risk in that case.
I'd imagine even this scenario might have it's own optimal spread?
Don't feel bad. I'm not sure I understand optimal betting either.(2deep) said:
I'm just trying to say every situation is unigue and always dividing by x to get max bets is too simplistic.
Like, for instance, in Table 10.43 of Don's book,a 4.5/6 S17 DAS using indexes, he suggests practical spreads of 1-8, 1-12 and 1-16. The min unit, in this case is $10 in all cases. Each with a $10K roll. The resulting ROR's are intended to be about the same. But, obviously, the first case has a max bet of $80 or 125 max bets. The second case a max bet of $120 or 83 units nd the third a max of $160 and 62 max bets in his $10K roll.
So why confine yourself to some absolute rule?
In the same game, a back-counter always entering at TC+2 could spread 1-2 and have a $200 max bet (his unit is $100 or a 100 unit roll now). That's only 50 max bets. A back-counter spreading 1-3 would have a $300 max bet. That's only 33 max bets. All with the same risk.
Change the same game to 5/6 pen and almost none of the above applies anymore.
The easiest answer is buy a sim and learn what assumptions you have to tell it etc.
Sonny
Well-Known Member
That looks like a betting strategy for an unbalanced count to me. For a balanced system you generally want to raise your bets around +2 and hit your max bet around +5, but it depends on the game and your playing style. Some games give you an advantage at +1 so you can raise your bets earlier. If you are backcounting then you can wait longer to hit your max bet, maybe around +8 or so. For play-all you might be making your max bet around +3 in order to offset all the negative hands you're playing. It can get pretty complicated...Here are some links to what other people use:(2deep) said:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=8145
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=13341
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=10791
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=3525
-Sonny-
thx but whats the best bet spread and bet ramp you think i should use to have a good ROR around 5%Sonny said:
and if im using hi low and playin 6 deck games with at least 75% pen
and dealer s17
Rick Blaine in Blackjack Blueprint says
0 or less 1
+1 2
+2 4
+3 8
+4 10
+5 12
would that be effective and have a low ROR% ?
or are there better bet spreads and bet ramps to use
Sonny
Well-Known Member
That would be effective. It would be better if you could avoid negative counts, but not everyone has that luxury. A bigger spread would be more profitable, but it may not be realistic in your situation. So many things depend on the circumstances under which you play. You will know what styles of play you can use, what table minimums are available and what kind of bet spread you can get away with better than I.(2deep) said:
The RoR will depend on the size of your bankroll. You probably want at least 800 units for something like that. Chapter 10 of BJA gives EVs and RoRs for just about every set of rules, penetration levels and betting styles that you are likely to find. That will give you a better idea of how to optimize your strategy.
-Sonny-
Sonny
Well-Known Member
A simulator program will also give you that information, or you could get a very general ballpark figure from a spreadsheet:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=15578
-Sonny-
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=15578
-Sonny-