Spooked
- Thread starter Tarzan
- Start date
well, i'm no pro and just barely an AP when i wanna be, lol.
just me i think what's the big deal if one decides to change tables, or take a break when the monster rears it's ugly head. long as you don't think it's gonna do any good, lmao. it just might anyway, what's the worse it might do is slow your pace down a bit. and heck getting hammered like that is gonna PO anyone, stop a while and maybe at least shake it off.
just me i think what's the big deal if one decides to change tables, or take a break when the monster rears it's ugly head. long as you don't think it's gonna do any good, lmao. it just might anyway, what's the worse it might do is slow your pace down a bit. and heck getting hammered like that is gonna PO anyone, stop a while and maybe at least shake it off.
sagefr0g said:
well, i'm no pro and just barely an AP when i wanna be, lol.
just me i think what's the big deal if one decides to change tables, or take a break when the monster rears it's ugly head. long as you don't think it's gonna do any good, lmao. it just might anyway, what's the worse it might do is slow your pace down a bit. and heck getting hammered like that is gonna PO anyone, stop a while and maybe at least shake it off.
just me i think what's the big deal if one decides to change tables, or take a break when the monster rears it's ugly head. long as you don't think it's gonna do any good, lmao. it just might anyway, what's the worse it might do is slow your pace down a bit. and heck getting hammered like that is gonna PO anyone, stop a while and maybe at least shake it off.
I am buy no means an expert on this game, but I have opened myself to reading, learning, and playing solid basic stratedgy. One of the biggest lessons I have learned is not bounce table to table because I was losing. I took several bad shoes last night, but stayed patient and didnt deviate from my play and ended hitting my hot run and left with a decent roll, by my terms. Thankfully when I got on my roll the dealer and pit boss didn't let anyone jump on the table. which suprised me a little but oh well. I have been trolling around for a few weeks and find the advice given here by the credible sources to be awesome.
My question to you guys is, just when are you leaving?
If you are getting killed and leave at the end of a shoe, I can understand that. You are thinking somewhat with emotions, that things are not going to change. Things will not change! That is until they do change! The problem is no one ever tells when the change is coming.
If you are smart enough to know that these kind of things can set you off and you might start steaming, best to leave at the end of the shoe and go have a drink, take a nap or have dinner.
If you are getting killed and leave in the midst of a nice strong +count, then you are just not an advantage player or you have run out of money.
ihate17
If you are getting killed and leave at the end of a shoe, I can understand that. You are thinking somewhat with emotions, that things are not going to change. Things will not change! That is until they do change! The problem is no one ever tells when the change is coming.
If you are smart enough to know that these kind of things can set you off and you might start steaming, best to leave at the end of the shoe and go have a drink, take a nap or have dinner.
If you are getting killed and leave in the midst of a nice strong +count, then you are just not an advantage player or you have run out of money.
ihate17
There is definitely a good argument for walking away after a big beating. If the results begin to affect you emotionally then you should leave. Any time you allow your emotions to become a factor you will make mistakes. As Kasi said, take a break and assess your situation. When you look at the big picture it usually isn’t as bad as it seemed. If it is, you are probably doing something wrong that you need to know about.
Ideally you should have a very good idea of what to expect before you even sit down at the table. You should already know what the swings will be like and you should be prepared for them. You should always bring enough money to cover your entire session. The more you play, the more you will get used to the emotional side of things. If you are properly funded and you have a solid plan then you won’t have to worry about your emotions getting the best of you.
Experience will also help you overcome your weaknesses. Once you realize that your behavior is hurting your profits it will be easier to fix your bad habits. If you are walking away from positive counts then you are giving up a lot of money. Not only did you give away money during those negative counts, but now you are giving up the chance to win it back when you have the advantage. If you walk away from the dealer who gives the best penetration then you are giving up money. If you walk away from a table and can’t find another good one immediately then you are giving up money. If you walk away and start playing at a table where there is more heat then you have cost yourself money. If you walk away from a dealer who is fast, or is making mistakes, or is trackable, or is flashing, or is good for any other reason then you are giving up money.
The casino is not your biggest enemy.
-Sonny-
Ideally you should have a very good idea of what to expect before you even sit down at the table. You should already know what the swings will be like and you should be prepared for them. You should always bring enough money to cover your entire session. The more you play, the more you will get used to the emotional side of things. If you are properly funded and you have a solid plan then you won’t have to worry about your emotions getting the best of you.
Experience will also help you overcome your weaknesses. Once you realize that your behavior is hurting your profits it will be easier to fix your bad habits. If you are walking away from positive counts then you are giving up a lot of money. Not only did you give away money during those negative counts, but now you are giving up the chance to win it back when you have the advantage. If you walk away from the dealer who gives the best penetration then you are giving up money. If you walk away from a table and can’t find another good one immediately then you are giving up money. If you walk away and start playing at a table where there is more heat then you have cost yourself money. If you walk away from a dealer who is fast, or is making mistakes, or is trackable, or is flashing, or is good for any other reason then you are giving up money.
The casino is not your biggest enemy.
-Sonny-
I agree with some of you guys that leaving when the count is + is stupid no matter how bad your luck has been. But really you can't call someone a ploppy because they decide to change tables. Theoretically, it makes no difference, but sometimes if for no other reason, it can help you to cool off and just put things in perspective and I personally have seen it change my luck more often than gutting it out with the dealer from hell. I can only remember two or three times in my playing career where the dealer from hell turned into the dealer from heaven and that was after being at the table for quite a long time or a bunch of people left the table. Doesn't it make sense that if you have a really good shoe and all the players stay at the table and that the shuffle isn't that strong that card clumping can come into play?
Straight from the horse's mouth
Quote from Tarzan original:
..."A few dealers I know and one I know as a close friend has said that there are those times when they are incredibly hot and this trend seems to go with them for their entire shift or at least most of it. I tended to agree as I have seen this in action first hand..."
Up to here, this thread is pretty much evenly spread between 'stay' and 'leave.' In light of what Tarzan's dealer friend had to say, it has confirmed me as a 'leaver'. :cat:
Quote from Tarzan original:
..."A few dealers I know and one I know as a close friend has said that there are those times when they are incredibly hot and this trend seems to go with them for their entire shift or at least most of it. I tended to agree as I have seen this in action first hand..."
Up to here, this thread is pretty much evenly spread between 'stay' and 'leave.' In light of what Tarzan's dealer friend had to say, it has confirmed me as a 'leaver'. :cat:
Then, I just had a flashback, there's people like me that, once, years ago, wandered upstairs to some $50 min pit at the Claridge, watched everyone get absolutely creamed for a shoe or 2, decided to play anyway, lose the first 3 hands, the guy at third is so demoralized from having played for a while gets a 17 vs 10 and says "I can't win doing the right thing anyway so just hit me", after a few r u sure's he get's his 4 and wins his hand.
I think I went into shock after 10 rounds or so and don't remember the details but if I won 1 round it was a miracle lol. I don't think the 5 people won 3 hands that shoe lol.
And I jumped into it voluntarily lmao :laugh:
I think I went into shock after 10 rounds or so and don't remember the details but if I won 1 round it was a miracle lol. I don't think the 5 people won 3 hands that shoe lol.
And I jumped into it voluntarily lmao :laugh:
The Long RUn
So many interesting and valid points have been brought up here by pros and/or seasoned players of whom I respect their thoughts and insights into this subject. Things touched on include superstition, "playing like a ploppy", selective memory factor, what the count is doing, math and the long run, standard fluctuation factors, keeping your cool and not thinking you are invincible during positive swings and things turning right around in a hurry.
Superstition and playing like a ploppy
Gamblers are very superstitious. Heck, even some pit people and dealers are very superstitious. The professional is different and evaluates everything based on proven mathematical formula and statistical data. SystemsTrader is right... 100% right. Every move I make is based on mathematical evaluation but---if anything is "out of place" and I am up against "the dealer from hell" as depicted in the original post and there is no significant reason for staying such as a count starting to perk up a bit, I will have a tendency to bail and "regroup".
Well mixed cards with no appreciable count for many shoes in a row
21ForMe mentions walking away in a good count but the standard bill of fare in facing off with "the dealer from hell" is having a count that steadily hovers around neutral or only slightly better than neutral. Walking away in a good count is absurd but a good count is very few and far between when taking on "the dealer from hell". More often than not, the count is nothing spectacular but not bad enough to warrant wonging out, so you linger on with "the dealer from hell" long enough to see a severe beating. I see this sort of stagnation along with a steady, thorough beating and yes, I am likely to take a break, take a walk, change it up, etc.
Ups and downs that are part of normal fluctuation
SystemsTrader notes normal fluctuation factors. Playing against "the dealer from hell" is anything but normal though. When the dealer slams out every hand to leave you winning two hands out of the entire shoe in heads up and even throws in slamming out four blackjacks in a row just for good measure, this is ANYTHING BUT NORMAL! This is an aberration. I have never played roulette but how often do you see the number 29 pop up four or five times in a row? That would undoubtedly be called anything but normal. I can and have dealt with normal and expected fluctuation factors... it's normal and I am used to it. When I see the telltale signs of "the dealer from hell", I often carefully evaluate the situation a little more closely and am perfectly willing to wander for greener pastures. It's not the only table in town, so why not look for something a bit more promising?
Math and the long run
SDPadres pointed out the math and the long run and this is true. The only way to overcome a bout with the dealer from hell is to play perfectly, maximize use of optimal betting based on count, devote time and have a sufficient bankroll. Math and the long run are EVERYTHING. That's why I figured you as an ideal candidate to throw your thoughts out there on this subject, Callipygian... your mathematical analysis expertise thrown onto this "voodoo" sort of subject. As a matter of fact I was wondering if the original post should have gone into "general" or "voodoo"!
Dealing with swings rationally
With regard to dealing with normal fluctuations and even that rare occurrence of a bout with "the dealer from hell", those common sense things come into play (playing perfectly, optimized betting based on TC, time devoted, sufficient bankroll) and I think it was AutoMonkey? that mentioned about dealing with positive swings rationally also and not allowing yourself to think you are "bullet proof" or "invincible". I play full time, normally 4 or 5 days a week and the last few weeks have been very unusual for me. I've been banging out to the tune of nearly 8 units an hour steadily. This is fairly weird and whacked out, since I know what my averages work out to for years in a row due to detailed notes and logs, for instance in the year of 2008 I averaged 1.7 units per hour for the entire year. I know for a fact I am not invincible and I am not bullet proof, so I am not willing to overbet my bankroll due to any short term positive fluctuation. Oddly enough, during this last few weeks of incredibly good fortune I encountered one particular instance of "the dealer from hell" in which I took a beating, the count was doing nothing special and hovering about neutral... all those "tell tale" signs. Before it got too far I took a break, took a stroll and went back at it using---You guessed it!--->Perfect play strategy, optimal betting based on count, put the time in and of course had enough cash to insure I was going to be okay no matter what. Was it voodoo to walk away from "the dealer from hell"? Maybe, but I'm glad I did.
Selective memory
Enduring a seemingly endless battle against "the dealer from hell" sticks in your mind just the way that recreational players will claim that others poor or improper play is adversely affecting them in some fashion, when in fact it's a wash and the other player's mistakes are just as likely to help you as they are to hurt you, only the recreational player's "selective memory" has a tendency to only recall the times when the other player's boneheaded move hurt them. An episode with "the dealer from hell" can leave you shell-shocked and provide "selective memory" regardless of overall otherwise good performance. The experience is not pleasant but provides valuable data for understanding the "recipe for running into the dealer from hell", consisting of some of the things I and others mentioned such as:
-The dealer that you know well and play with often gives you a "heads up" that they are incredibly hot today and are slaughtering everyone in their path (this in itself is of no matter and will not prevent me from playing but will give me a sense of caution).
-The count is staying near neutral, not warranting any ramping up but not going low enough that wonging out appears to be necessary but in the meantime, the dealer can get nothing but 20, 21 or perhaps back to back blackjacks and you get 12-16 EVERY SINGLE HAND and happen to break every single time you hit your garbage hand. The icing on the cake is that even though you break when hitting so much as a 12, the dealer can flawlessly pull a 5 on top of every 16 they hit.
Yes, I have taken a break, walked away, changed it up, whatever when this has occurred and these factors all fall into place. I felt I made the right move and that looking for premium conditions or at least better conditions upon making my exodus from "the dealer from hell" allowed a break and was the right move. No, I am not going to call that dominatrix though!!! I saw this show on television where this 7 foot tall amazon dominatrix chick was abusing the hell out of some guy... "Was this enjoyable to him somehow?", I was thinking. I think it was on "Spike TV"...
The pros answers here dictate logic and common sense. Those crazy swings and fluctuations are normal... but running into that once in a blue moon "dealer from hell" is not an ordinary or everyday occurrence just like seeing the number 29 show up on a roulette wheel five times in a row isn't as a comparison and as other pros and seasoned players here have pointed out, the only way to overcome this "bump in the road" of running into "the dealer from hell is to play perfectly, play perfect strategy, utilize optimum betting based on TC, devote the time to achieve the long run, have the bankroll to account for crazy fluctuations and keep ROR to absolute minimum and...for me... to recognize the tell tale signs of "Oh hell here we go and I am here with the dealer from hell who is having their lucky day" and perhaps exercise that option to take a little break in the action.
So many interesting and valid points have been brought up here by pros and/or seasoned players of whom I respect their thoughts and insights into this subject. Things touched on include superstition, "playing like a ploppy", selective memory factor, what the count is doing, math and the long run, standard fluctuation factors, keeping your cool and not thinking you are invincible during positive swings and things turning right around in a hurry.
Superstition and playing like a ploppy
Gamblers are very superstitious. Heck, even some pit people and dealers are very superstitious. The professional is different and evaluates everything based on proven mathematical formula and statistical data. SystemsTrader is right... 100% right. Every move I make is based on mathematical evaluation but---if anything is "out of place" and I am up against "the dealer from hell" as depicted in the original post and there is no significant reason for staying such as a count starting to perk up a bit, I will have a tendency to bail and "regroup".
Well mixed cards with no appreciable count for many shoes in a row
21ForMe mentions walking away in a good count but the standard bill of fare in facing off with "the dealer from hell" is having a count that steadily hovers around neutral or only slightly better than neutral. Walking away in a good count is absurd but a good count is very few and far between when taking on "the dealer from hell". More often than not, the count is nothing spectacular but not bad enough to warrant wonging out, so you linger on with "the dealer from hell" long enough to see a severe beating. I see this sort of stagnation along with a steady, thorough beating and yes, I am likely to take a break, take a walk, change it up, etc.
Ups and downs that are part of normal fluctuation
SystemsTrader notes normal fluctuation factors. Playing against "the dealer from hell" is anything but normal though. When the dealer slams out every hand to leave you winning two hands out of the entire shoe in heads up and even throws in slamming out four blackjacks in a row just for good measure, this is ANYTHING BUT NORMAL! This is an aberration. I have never played roulette but how often do you see the number 29 pop up four or five times in a row? That would undoubtedly be called anything but normal. I can and have dealt with normal and expected fluctuation factors... it's normal and I am used to it. When I see the telltale signs of "the dealer from hell", I often carefully evaluate the situation a little more closely and am perfectly willing to wander for greener pastures. It's not the only table in town, so why not look for something a bit more promising?
Math and the long run
SDPadres pointed out the math and the long run and this is true. The only way to overcome a bout with the dealer from hell is to play perfectly, maximize use of optimal betting based on count, devote time and have a sufficient bankroll. Math and the long run are EVERYTHING. That's why I figured you as an ideal candidate to throw your thoughts out there on this subject, Callipygian... your mathematical analysis expertise thrown onto this "voodoo" sort of subject. As a matter of fact I was wondering if the original post should have gone into "general" or "voodoo"!
Dealing with swings rationally
With regard to dealing with normal fluctuations and even that rare occurrence of a bout with "the dealer from hell", those common sense things come into play (playing perfectly, optimized betting based on TC, time devoted, sufficient bankroll) and I think it was AutoMonkey? that mentioned about dealing with positive swings rationally also and not allowing yourself to think you are "bullet proof" or "invincible". I play full time, normally 4 or 5 days a week and the last few weeks have been very unusual for me. I've been banging out to the tune of nearly 8 units an hour steadily. This is fairly weird and whacked out, since I know what my averages work out to for years in a row due to detailed notes and logs, for instance in the year of 2008 I averaged 1.7 units per hour for the entire year. I know for a fact I am not invincible and I am not bullet proof, so I am not willing to overbet my bankroll due to any short term positive fluctuation. Oddly enough, during this last few weeks of incredibly good fortune I encountered one particular instance of "the dealer from hell" in which I took a beating, the count was doing nothing special and hovering about neutral... all those "tell tale" signs. Before it got too far I took a break, took a stroll and went back at it using---You guessed it!--->Perfect play strategy, optimal betting based on count, put the time in and of course had enough cash to insure I was going to be okay no matter what. Was it voodoo to walk away from "the dealer from hell"? Maybe, but I'm glad I did.
Selective memory
Enduring a seemingly endless battle against "the dealer from hell" sticks in your mind just the way that recreational players will claim that others poor or improper play is adversely affecting them in some fashion, when in fact it's a wash and the other player's mistakes are just as likely to help you as they are to hurt you, only the recreational player's "selective memory" has a tendency to only recall the times when the other player's boneheaded move hurt them. An episode with "the dealer from hell" can leave you shell-shocked and provide "selective memory" regardless of overall otherwise good performance. The experience is not pleasant but provides valuable data for understanding the "recipe for running into the dealer from hell", consisting of some of the things I and others mentioned such as:
-The dealer that you know well and play with often gives you a "heads up" that they are incredibly hot today and are slaughtering everyone in their path (this in itself is of no matter and will not prevent me from playing but will give me a sense of caution).
-The count is staying near neutral, not warranting any ramping up but not going low enough that wonging out appears to be necessary but in the meantime, the dealer can get nothing but 20, 21 or perhaps back to back blackjacks and you get 12-16 EVERY SINGLE HAND and happen to break every single time you hit your garbage hand. The icing on the cake is that even though you break when hitting so much as a 12, the dealer can flawlessly pull a 5 on top of every 16 they hit.
Yes, I have taken a break, walked away, changed it up, whatever when this has occurred and these factors all fall into place. I felt I made the right move and that looking for premium conditions or at least better conditions upon making my exodus from "the dealer from hell" allowed a break and was the right move. No, I am not going to call that dominatrix though!!! I saw this show on television where this 7 foot tall amazon dominatrix chick was abusing the hell out of some guy... "Was this enjoyable to him somehow?", I was thinking. I think it was on "Spike TV"...
The pros answers here dictate logic and common sense. Those crazy swings and fluctuations are normal... but running into that once in a blue moon "dealer from hell" is not an ordinary or everyday occurrence just like seeing the number 29 show up on a roulette wheel five times in a row isn't as a comparison and as other pros and seasoned players here have pointed out, the only way to overcome this "bump in the road" of running into "the dealer from hell is to play perfectly, play perfect strategy, utilize optimum betting based on TC, devote the time to achieve the long run, have the bankroll to account for crazy fluctuations and keep ROR to absolute minimum and...for me... to recognize the tell tale signs of "Oh hell here we go and I am here with the dealer from hell who is having their lucky day" and perhaps exercise that option to take a little break in the action.
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Yea, I know I'm off the wall a little Sabre, sometimes I post without thinking, but come on. If you are getting nailed that badly it has to start effecting you emotionally. Wouldn't it be better to take a break, stretch your legs, and try a new seat? If for no other reason than just to reassure yourself that you are doing the right thing, you're not wrong, and that you have to trust your math?
Done it both ways
LOL.. Been there done that... I've tried it both ways...Sat through many serial hammerings with a wonderful count. Nowadays I usually just go do something else or go somewhere else...But then again we usually forget the serial winning sessions on horribly negative decks! Bj is a fascinating game.
LOL.. Been there done that... I've tried it both ways...Sat through many serial hammerings with a wonderful count. Nowadays I usually just go do something else or go somewhere else...But then again we usually forget the serial winning sessions on horribly negative decks! Bj is a fascinating game.
There is no need to take a hammering shoe after shoe. Given the information given to you as you play out the shoe, with observation you can recognize strong and weak sections of the shoe and where they are. Counting is a passive aggressive approach to playing where as, yes you are playing a smart game, but only with the advantage given to you. A more aggressive approach comes in being a manipulater of the cards where you create the advantage. In some cases it works very nicely, when you can purposely track an advantage into your hands. Many times its not quite that good, but an awareness made of the last shoe's count, and particular sections of it, can feed you information into the next shoe. Even if a shuffle is untrackable per say where you cannot land an advantage for certain, you may still be able to understand the makeup of the shoe you are about to play. It comes down to, the more info that is readily given to you by the casino that you can process, the more ammo you have in either attacking or somtimes just protecting. Its a reason that I have never moved on to more advanced counts. Its been my experience that advancing my knowledge in card mechanics and shuffle characteristics has delivered me much higher rewards. Counting on any level is an approximation. I choose to try to dwindle the odds of error by trying to know beforehand what to expect, not approximate it as it comes.
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