Tell if jumping in mid-shoe with a high count is a viable strategy

#1
Hi,

I've read enough about blackjack to understand that you're better off not playing the game. The odds aren't in favor of the player, even if you manage to memorize basic strategy, count, have a bankroll to manage the variance and do all this correctly in a noisy casino - you're still not going to make that much money.

My though perception recently changed, when I worked for a IT Firm previously I went to one of the local clubs to do some re-wiring for their video monitoring systems - which happened to be for the blackjack tables. While waiting for another co-worker to arrive I shot the **** with a dealer. She told me how the tips recently have been crazy and one drunk guy accidentally putting $25 instead of $5 in the dealer tip spot but then she told me a story of a group of card counters who to her "stole" from the Casinos through-out the area. She said me one guy would sit down, count, min bet and another guy would jump in when the count is high, bet high and then bail. They managed to "steal" three grand from the Casino in a few hours.

Being unemployed, this has somewhat sparked my interest. I'm currently working on programming a blackjack simulator though it's difficult as I don't have the knowledge as I've only taken one CompSci class at my college but I do have a few questions.

1) In general, how viable is this?

2) How often does a TC reach +4? In my area most of the casinos are 6 Decks, S17, Peek, $1-$25.

3) How does one manage to enter a shoe in the middle without angering other players or taking heat?

4) If you're obviously counting but you tip - will this reduce possible heat?

5) How accurate do you need to be to make this strategy profitable? Could you just simply count the 4,5 and Aces and Tens and still post a large profit?
 

KenSmith

Administrator
Staff member
#2
Sounds like you came in looking to stir up something right off the bat.

Quote from chat:
[Tab] Card count is illegal, I have all your IP Addresses and I will report you to the police. Thank you for your cooperation.

Post an apology for this nonsense, and perhaps some of the regulars will consider your questions.
And, welcome back after your two year hiatus.
 
#3
KenSmith said:
Card count is illegal, I have all your IP Addresses and I will report you to the police.
Can someone outside of the admin actually obtain the IP addresses?
What was her name/handle two years ago? zg
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#6
Tab is now in the chat room, which has put a damper on all useful conversation there. Maybe there should be some prerequisite for earning the right to participate in the chat room, especially when class is in session.
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#7
aslan said:
Tab is now in the chat room, which has put a damper on all useful conversation there. Maybe there should be some prerequisite for earning the right to participate in the chat room, especially when class is in session.
Agreed. I think there should be a minimum post count or something.
 
#8
Forgive me, in my haste and boredom I made a simple joke, it seems that most of those in that chat room where interested in continually harassing me instead of focusing on the subject at hand even after I apologized.

I think I may have registered on the site previously, but I don't believe I posted much if it all. Though, I'm not sure.

I'm still curious if this strategy is viable, though I've done a bit more reading and it does appear to be - though I'm at odds how one is to jump in mid-shoe without irritating other patrons or taking on heat from the dealer.
 
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pooptarts92

Well-Known Member
#9
Tab said:
Forgive me, in my haste and boredom I made a simple joke, it seems that most of those in that chat room where interested in continually harassing me instead of focusing on the subject at hand even after I apologized.

I think I may have registered on the site previously, but I don't believe I posted much if it all. Though, I'm not sure.

I'm still curious if this strategy is viable, though I've done a bit more reading and it does appear to be - though I'm at odds how one is to jump in mid-shoe without irritating other patrons or taking on heat from the dealer.
Just pretend you're a drunk gambler. That's how the pro's do it. That way when you split 10's and do crazy index moves like that it just seems like you're a dumb drunk crazy gambler. This will reduce the heat.
 
#10
pooptarts92 said:
Just pretend you're a drunk gambler. That's how the pro's do it. That way when you split 10's and do crazy index moves like that it just seems like you're a dumb drunk crazy gambler. This will reduce the heat.
As for the other patrons?
 
#13
Well, around here it's usually common courtesy to ask if anyone minds jumping in mid-shoe, does anyone have any tactics to reduce anyone anger? Like, pretending to be drunk compulsive gambler when splitting tens.
 

MeWin$

Well-Known Member
#14
You want to reduce anger jumping in mid-shoe.
I dont know how to do this, or if it is even possible to reduce anger by simply saying something before you jump in, it's the act of jumping in and disrupting the 'sacred flow of the cards,' there's not a magic phrase you can say.
The other posters have said for you to stop caring, that sounds like a pretty good idea.
You have said you want to say stuff to reduce anger, so if you must, here are some phrases that spring to mind.
'Do you mind if I join in?" If they say no, then youre free and clear and some people just appreciate being asked. Also, its a gauge of their hostility level which you stated you care about. Also, if they DO care and ask you to stay out, then you can ignore them and play anyway, however this pisses off people even more. That's all i can think of, I mean, people always have some lame line to 'budge' into a shoe, ploppy regulars have heard it all.
Why do you want to reduce anger? Do you not want to feel uncomfortable at the table? Are you wary of getting into a physical confrontation (not going to happen, really) Do you care what these strangers think or do you think its a bad business decision to have people mad at you?
Digest what the posters have said I think
 
#15
Wonging in

If you ask and you are told in reply to "wait until the next shoe" or to "wait for a few hands", and you decide to ignore that polite request and do jump in it now depends on who you have just disrespected.

I would recommend that before jumping, wonging, in you take an assesment as to who is on that table, and if you want to take a chance crossing swords with them after they have politely asked that you wait a short time.

Speaking for myself, if it were me asking that you stay out a short time and you jumped in in spite of that polite request, I can guarantee the disrespect you had shown me would be something you would come to regret in quick fashion....but that is just me.:devil:

Now I do not request this very often, when I do it is with reason, as often I will welcome another player.:)

CP
 

Bojack1

Well-Known Member
#16
My advice in jumping in is just do it and don't bother asking. Odds are you will get a negative response anyway. You can either claim ignorance once the complaining starts and once the hand is played you are now considered part of the "new flow" anyway. You can really piss off an arrogant complainer by not even acknowledging they exist. Letting their whining fall on deaf ears as if they are just a flea not worthy of your time to respond. This works well, if you are a serious player not out for socializing, just to make some money. There of course is the one I have fun with. If its a blowhard male that seems to think it necessary I need to hear him insult me, I like to remove my teeth put them on the table next to my chips, ask the dealer to please keep an eye on them for me, put my ugly face close to the blowhards so he can feel my spittle when I talk, and very calmly and directly ask him if he would like to carry on his conversation with me in a more appropriate setting outside. So far no takers. :grin: Of course if you have not had your teeth previously busted out or are more likely to taken up on the offer to go outside, ignoring an idiot is probably best. :)
 

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
#18
Bojack1 said:
Of course if you have not had your teeth previously busted out or are more likely to taken up on the offer to go outside, ignoring an idiot is probably best. :)
This is probably the part most members of this forum should read :laugh:
 
#19
Reverse

Bojack1 said:
My advice in jumping in is just do it and don't bother asking. Odds are you will get a negative response anyway. You can either claim ignorance once the complaining starts and once the hand is played you are now considered part of the "new flow" anyway. You can really piss off an arrogant complainer by not even acknowledging they exist. Letting their whining fall on deaf ears as if they are just a flea not worthy of your time to respond. This works well, if you are a serious player not out for socializing, just to make some money. There of course is the one I have fun with. If its a blowhard male that seems to think it necessary I need to hear him insult me, I like to remove my teeth put them on the table next to my chips, ask the dealer to please keep an eye on them for me, put my ugly face close to the blowhards so he can feel my spittle when I talk, and very calmly and directly ask him if he would like to carry on his conversation with me in a more appropriate setting outside. So far no takers. :grin: Of course if you have not had your teeth previously busted out or are more likely to taken up on the offer to go outside, ignoring an idiot is probably best. :)
Very good.

Now what would you do Bojack if the situation was reversed, you asked politely and the wonger blows you off and enters the game.

I understand this is a moot point when playing on NMS games, but it is an interesting topic.

Also, if it comes to the point of throwing down I say do it right there and then and let the chips fall where they may.

CP
 
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