what to do when this happens?

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ningtong88

Active Member
#1
#1
let's say I am playing 2 hands heads up with dealer, I get a Soft 19 and a hard 6. Dealer has 5 showing. The count is high enough that I should double on my soft 19. Now do I hit my 6 or just stay, because it's kinda pointless to hit that 6 knowing I probablly will get a 10.

Also please feel free to discuss other similar circumstances here.
 
HockeXpert

HockeXpert

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
ningtong88 said:
let's say I am playing 2 hands heads up with dealer, I get a Soft 19 and a hard 6. Dealer has 5 showing. The count is high enough that I should double on my soft 19. Now do I hit my 6 or just stay, because it's kinda pointless to hit that 6 knowing I probablly will get a 10.

Also please feel free to discuss other similar circumstances here.
Click to expand...
All hands are played independent of each other. EV is +10.5 if you hit and -1.5 if you stand at a pretty high tc.
 
S

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Two possibilities exist:

1) This is a big joke.

2) You do not have, and will never have what it takes to be a blackjack player.
Quit now, before you lose everything you have. :(
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
Geeze, you guys are harsh.

Hitting or standing does not affect the chance the dealer will bust, unless, for example, you KNOW the next card is a ten.

So your only logical options playing a counting game are to hit, hope you draw a low card and THEN the ten.

Or, you could double down on hard 6, because it's so likely the dealer will bust.

But we would never stand, based simple on the count.
 
2

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
ningtong88 said:
let's say I am playing 2 hands heads up with dealer, I get a Soft 19 and a hard 6. Dealer has 5 showing. The count is high enough that I should double on my soft 19. Now do I hit my 6 or just stay, because it's kinda pointless to hit that 6 knowing I probablly will get a 10.

Also please feel free to discuss other similar circumstances here.
Click to expand...
Why double the soft 19 when you know you're going to get a 5?
 
bejammin075

bejammin075

Active Member
#9
#9
How could you not hit the hard 6?

Sucker said:
Two possibilities exist:

1) This is a big joke.

2) You do not have, and will never have what it takes to be a blackjack player.
Quit now, before you lose everything you have. :(
Click to expand...
The question is so bad, 1) above comes to mind, but I lean towards 2). If the questioner is aware that there's a basic strategy, and aware that there are index plays, and that you sometimes alter your play based on the true count, then he should know that never in a million years would you stand on a hard 6, um, now I'm talking myself into believing it's a joke question. The only time I would stand on a hard six is IF I was at a mindplay table and IF I had hacked the computer and IF I knew all the cards in advance. Otherwise, you hit a hard 6.
 
2

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
Ningtong, if the count is zero the dealer is still going to make a hand approximately 57% of the time (depending on the rules) with a 5 showing. The % will go down slightly as the count increases but he's still going to make a hand over 50% of the time until the count gets quite high. So relying on the dealer to bust is a terrible idea. You still don't want to bust out your own hand, but hit until taking another card could cause you to bust, then stand.

Likewise, you are not likely to draw a 10 in this situation unless the count is way up in the stratosphere. There are still lots of small cards out there, and if the next card happens to be small card and you don't take it the dealer is going to get it, meaning his chances of making a hand just got a lot better! If you do draw a 10, it's no big deal. Once again, you don't know what the dealer has as his hole card. It may be a 6, and taking that 10 away from him may well make it possible for you to win the hand. I think you're over-thinking and under-thinking the situation at the same time.
 
T

tthree

Banned
#11
#11
moo321 said:
Geeze, you guys are harsh.

Hitting or standing does not affect the chance the dealer will bust, unless, for example, you KNOW the next card is a ten.

So your only logical options playing a counting game are to hit, hope you draw a low card and THEN the ten.

Or, you could double down on hard 6, because it's so likely the dealer will bust.

But we would never stand, based simple on the count.
Click to expand...
Double hard 6? Even if you pull an ace you only have 17.
 
R

Renzey

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
ningtong88 said:
let's say I am playing 2 hands heads up with dealer, I get a Soft 19 and a hard 6. Dealer has 5 showing. The count is high enough that I should double on my soft 19. Now do I hit my 6 or just stay, because it's kinda pointless to hit that 6 knowing I probablly will get a 10.
Click to expand...
I hope this sheds some light on things. Let's suppose you're using Hi/Lo, the shoe is down to only 51 cards remaining and the TC is a most unusual +16. Not only that, but you've seen the dealer's hole card, and it's definitely a 10. That means about 34 of the remaining cards (two-thirds) will be "bust cards" (7 thru King) for the dealer. Let's assume it is exactly 34, or 66.66%. So if you stand on both hands, the dealer will bust two times out of three, right?? Right!

But wait! How often will the dealer bust if you stand on your 6 and double the soft 19, thereby taking one blind card out of that super rich pack?

Well, two times out of three, you'll take a dealer's bust card, and the pack will now contain 33 bust cards out of 50, or, 66.0%

But that third time, you'll take a 2 thru 6, which will leave 34 bust cards out of 50, or 68.0%.

Question #1: What's the dealer's average bust percentage when you take one card from this pack??

Question #2: What's the dealer's average overall bust percentage when you hit the 6 and also double the soft 19?

Question #3: How about when you take 50 cards, leaving only the last card for the dealer?
 
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