ningtong88 said:
let's say I am playing 2 hands heads up with dealer, I get a Soft 19 and a hard 6. Dealer has 5 showing. The count is high enough that I should double on my soft 19. Now do I hit my 6 or just stay, because it's kinda pointless to hit that 6 knowing I probablly will get a 10.
I hope this sheds some light on things. Let's suppose you're using Hi/Lo, the shoe is down to only 51 cards remaining and the TC is a most unusual +16. Not only that, but you've seen the dealer's hole card, and it's definitely a 10. That means about 34 of the remaining cards
(two-thirds) will be "bust cards"
(7 thru King) for the dealer. Let's assume it is exactly 34, or 66
.66%. So if you stand on both hands, the dealer will bust two times out of three, right??
Right!
But wait! How often will the dealer bust if you stand on your 6 and double the soft 19, thereby taking one blind card out of that super rich pack?
Well, two times out of three, you'll take a dealer's bust card, and the pack will now contain 33 bust cards out of 50, or, 66
.0%
But that third time, you'll take a 2 thru 6, which will leave 34 bust cards out of 50, or 68
.0%.
Question #1: What's the dealer's
average bust percentage when you take one card from this pack??
Question #2: What's the dealer's average overall bust percentage when you hit the 6 and also double the soft 19?
Question #3: How about when you take 50 cards, leaving only the last card for the dealer?