Whats the cost of this play?

[shadroch]

I'm working with a new player and he has BS down pat,is working on the I18 and can count down a deck faster than I can.
He keeps focusing on an issue and I can't find the answer.
In certain soft hands,BS says to DD,even though it lessens your chances of winning the hand. I ,myself, don't fully understand the math of exactly why you do this,but accept that you should and I do.He,however,is unconvinced.
So the question is- What does it cost to simply hit on these soft hands ,rather than double down. I'm sure I have a chart for the EV of these hands,but I can't find the right one.

 

[sagefr0g]

I'm working with a new player and he has BS down pat,is working on the I18 and can count down a deck faster than I can.
He keeps focusing on an issue and I can't find the answer.
In certain soft hands,BS says to DD,even though it lessens your chances of winning the hand. I ,myself, don't fully understand the math of exactly why you do this,but accept that you should and I do.He,however,is unconvinced.
So the question is- What does it cost to simply hit on these soft hands ,rather than double down. I'm sure I have a chart for the EV of these hands,but I can't find the right one.

probably will be in here shad:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/ev/ev.htm (Archive copy)

 

[shadroch]

Thanks.
Thats almost what I'm looking for,but not quite.I guess I need a chart that combines that,with the frequency of the hands.I'd like to be able to put it like this,with supporting evidence." If you always hit these hands when you should be doubling them,its going to win X,but if you follow BS,you'll win Y,and Y is Z more than X." You Follow?

 

[Canceler]

Maybe this example by Sonny will help?

 

[shadroch]

Close,but not quite. If we were tossing hand grenades,you'd have the kewpie prize,but I'm dealing with a real Doubting Thomas. Thanks for trying.

 

[sagefr0g]

Thanks.
Thats almost what I'm looking for,but not quite.I guess I need a chart that combines that,with the frequency of the hands.I'd like to be able to put it like this,with supporting evidence." If you always hit these hands when you should be doubling them,its going to win X,but if you follow BS,you'll win Y,and Y is Z more than X." You Follow?

just show him taking some bet size and multiply it by the ev for hitt, stand, double or split from those charts and he can see the dollar value greater or lesser.

for frequency of hands here's a link:
http://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackfirstcards1.htm

 

[Canceler]

The EV tables that sagefr0g gave the link for do show the probability (or frequency) of occurrence. Looking at A,5 vs 6 for S17 DD, if he misplays it by hitting instead of doubling, it will cost about 9 cents per hour, if he's betting $10.

Not quite the striking example we were hoping for. Of course, that amount would be higher if he were betting more. I can show my work if you think that would be of use.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I'm working with a new player and he has BS down pat,is working on the I18 and can count down a deck faster than I can.
He keeps focusing on an issue and I can't find the answer.
In certain soft hands,BS says to DD,even though it lessens your chances of winning the hand. I ,myself, don't fully understand the math of exactly why you do this,but accept that you should and I do.He,however,is unconvinced.
So the question is- What does it cost to simply hit on these soft hands ,rather than double down. I'm sure I have a chart for the EV of these hands,but I can't find the right one.

To explain the math in non-mathematical terms- you win less often when you double down (on many hands) but you win twice as much money when you do win. Given a choice, on a certain hand, would you rather win $100 80% of the time or win $200 75% of the time?

Not taking soft doubles probably costs in the area of 0.20%-0.30% depending on the game.

 

[jack.jackson]

Im pretty sure, for a flat-bet BS player, a "player" who chooses to hit soft-hands, opposed to doubling, loses about .-14. For a counter, with variable-betting, probably lose's close to about double that, but unsure of this.

 

[Kasi]

just show him taking some bet size and multiply it by the ev for hitt, stand, double or split from those charts and he can see the dollar value greater or lesser.

Another thought would be, in case you have BJIII, is just use the tables in the back that have both EV and frequency. If you want to know the cost of making that play that particular time, use the EV tables. If you want to know the cost of making that wrong play every time, multiply by the frequency like Callypigian did.

Hard to believe you could convince this guy to become an investor in a few days play. Even harder to believe he would be willing to bet to a $5K roll.
His best bet, just invest the $5K in you. IMHO.

Sorry, I just noticed I'm replying to the Wise One when I meant to be replying to the Big Guy (aka Shad) lol!

 

[Kasi]

Im pretty sure, for a flat-bet BS player, a "player" who chooses to hit soft-hands, opposed to doubling, loses about .-14. For a counter, with variable-betting, probably lose's close to about double that, but unsure of this.

No big deal but I get, not that means much in the first place because I'd tend to believe AM, but, if either of you want to pursue it, I get a BS palyer would lose a little less than 0.1% if he never doubled soft hands.

So he'd turn a 0.44% game into 0.54% game.

I'd guess a lot different for a play-all CC who used indexes and identified alot more favorable situations in which to double and did not double in a lot more situations when not called for.

 

[jack.jackson]

No big deal but I get, not that means much in the first place because I'd tend to believe AM, but, if either of you want to pursue it, I get a BS palyer would lose a little less than 0.1% if he never doubled soft hands.

So he'd turn a 0.44% game into 0.54% game.

I'd guess a lot different for a play-all CC who used indexes and identified alot more favorable situations in which to double and did not double in a lot more situations when not called for.

 

[Kasi]

OK - I guess I deserved that lmao.

What's wrong with a fire-red 1968 Ford Mustang Convertible? That was my second favorite car until I got totaled by somebody running a stop-sign.

My favorite was a '64 triple-carb dual overhead camshaft 2-door XKE coupe that was just so ridiculous. I'd get pulled over for doing 65 after 10 minutes on a 55 road and they'd say, "You were doing 65". And I'd say, so what, the speed limit is 55- get a life". And they'd say "that was back in the 25 zone before you got on this road and I can't give you a ticket for going 110 for the last 10 minutes because it's out of my jurisdiction." That was back when all you had to do was pay the fine each time. I got so many tickets it. I couldn't help it. Once I got stopped as a passenger for doing 135 but the driver who was visiting had an international driver's license and just got a ticket he never paid after leaving the country.

Then eventually I got old I guess. I won't even tell you what I'm driving today. Don't even waste your breath asking

 

[jack.jackson]

OK - I guess I deserved that lmao.

What's wrong with a fire-red 1968 Ford Mustang Convertible? That was my second favorite car until I got totaled by somebody running a stop-sign.

My favorite was a '64 triple-carb dual overhead camshaft 2-door XKE coupe that was just so ridiculous. I'd get pulled over for doing 65 after 10 minutes on a 55 road and they'd say, "You were doing 65". And I'd say, so what, the speed limit is 55- get a life". And they'd say "that was back in the 25 zone before you got on this road and I can't give you a ticket for going 110 for the last 10 minutes because it's out of my jurisdiction." That was back when all you had to do was pay the fine each time. I got so many tickets it. I couldn't help it. Once I got stopped as a passenger for doing 135 but the driver who was visiting had an international driver's license and just got a ticket he never paid after leaving the country.

Then eventually I got old I guess. I won't even tell you what I'm driving today. Don't even waste your breath asking

So what are you driving today?lol

Here's a 1958 Pontiac V8 Cheiftan. 373 I think it was. I Drove it from when I was 18-23(HighSchool). 135 is very fast in a car. I know! The fastest I had my pontiac goin was 106. Which I too, got a ticket for. I was racing a stranger in a 4 wheel drive. Needless, to say I won, but he got the last laugh as he Drove by :laugh: at me, as I was getting a ticket

Ps Can you see above, the Radio, where the Two chrome plated knobs are? Those are actually 2 Six inch Cylndrical Ashtray's that slide out. The Taillight was a Hinge, where you accessed the Gastank. Customized licensed plate was "Sled" 58. Everbody called me the Sled I miss that car

Dont ask me what Im drivin now...lol

 

[sagefr0g]

so JJ you was in high school till you was 23?
lol that explains a lot
my first car was one like this lol. i drove it that way too. lucky to be alive today lol.

 

[jack.jackson]

so JJ you was in high school till you was 23?
lol that explains a lot
my first car was one like this lol. i drove it that way too. lucky to be alive today lol.

Yep, that was me alright. Ha,ha. I put some new tires and chrome rims on mine tho. Plus it was a dark metallic forest green(fresh paint.)

Even tho, it was a fourdoor sedan, it was still cool to look at.

Oh ya, no power brakes or power steering