BR Collapsed 50%, What To Do!?

[zengrifter]

I received this privately, his units were pretty big -

I hit some bad neg variance lost 1/2 of my bankroll betting a 1-5 spread in DD games.........do i now need to change units to 1/2 of my origonal unit until i recover or should i press my current unit until i rebound??

This is a good question for Counter Forum. If you do not wish to be identified, do you want me to post it? zg

Thanks..... please post it because uit is toooooooooo............paaaiiiiiiiinfuuuuuuuuuuuuul for me to and it is embarrassing to have lost so much lol. i am down lets say 100 beeting units out of 200 so i only have 100 left, thanks for your input on the brighter side i have established myself as a high roller so when things turn i am going to clean out the house ...i hope.....
between you and i lost [big bucks] and i do not want anyone identifying me at this point

 

[Dopple]

I you want more time to recoup you should cut down your units if you can in my opinion. Kind of like the Kelly sys where you match your edge with the percent of your bank.

 

[zengrifter]

I you want more time to recoup you should cut down your units if you can in my opinion. Kind of like the Kelly sys where you match your edge with the percent of your bank.

How much should he cut back from what he was betting? zg

 

[sagefr0g]

if i'm understanding this xxx only had 200 betting units to begin with and was betting a 1-5 spread. shouldn't he have had at least 500 betting units to begin with in order to have a decent ROR. seems he was overbetting to begin with. i'd suspend play for this particular game until i had a sufficient bank.
perhaps play some lower limit tables and differant game if need be.

 

[zengrifter]

if i'm understanding this xxx only had 200 betting units to begin with and was betting a 1-5 spread. shouldn't he have had at least 500 betting units to begin with in order to have a decent ROR. seems he was overbetting to begin with. i'd suspend play for this particular game until i had a sufficient bank. perhaps play some lower limit tables and differant game if need be.

At a glance, he was CHRONICALLY overbet. His chronic overbet insured that in the longrun he'd go bust... so he fortunate it happened early.

Hypothetical:

He started with 20k and he was betting 1-5 black. He should have been betting 50-2x150 (or 25-2x125, better).

Now with 10k remaining he should be betting 25-2x75 (or 10-2x65, better)

Anyone else? zg

 

[shadroch]

I recieved the first part privately,as well.But not the second part.Without the second part,my answer was to keep the bet the same if he was sure it was bad variance,and he could replace the lost BR
But if he only had 200 units,then he shouldn't have been spreading 1-5.
With a $5 base,giving him a $1000 BR,spreading $5-$25 is overbetting.

But I'm curious. Had he started with a $10,000 BR,and lost $5,000 with the same spread,what would your advice be?

 

[bj bob]

I'm with the Frog

if i'm understanding this xxx only had 200 betting units to begin with and was betting a 1-5 spread. shouldn't he have had at least 500 betting units to begin with in order to have a decent ROR. seems he was overbetting to begin with. i'd suspend play for this particular game until i had a sufficient bank.
perhaps play some lower limit tables and differant game if need be.

The wise toad has it right. If Mr. X's BR was $20K then his original max. bet should have been $200, so at that point I would have been betting $25-$150 and 2x $100 to keep in accordance with Kelly. As Zg said, this is the reason he went bust so quickly. No surprise here.
With the remainder of his BR, assuming it is now $10K, he needs to go down to $15-$75 and 2x$50 to stay in line. All this assumes that the DD game he is playing has decent rules and pen. and that his game is fundamentally sound.

 

[zengrifter]

If he now has 10k and continues to play 1-5 black,
what is the likelyhood he'll lose everything? zg

 

[waveslider]

Interesting Proposal

Thats would be my question as well....... how conservative is 500 units for EV. Simple math says if he was betting an average of units 2.5 units he could sustain a negative dip as deep as 200 units......how possible is that?

 

[zengrifter]

Thats would be my question as well....... how conservative is 500 units for EV. Simple math says if he was betting an average of units 2.5 units he could sustain a negative dip as deep as 200 units......how possible is that?

He was betting nearly THREE-TIMES KELLY*, loss was more likely than not. zg

*Correct bet was more like 1/2Kelly.

 

[Reno Dude]

I received this privately, his units were pretty big -

This is a good question for Counter Forum. If you do not wish to be identified, do you want me to post it? zg

All he can do is keep at it. I had 4 big losing sessions in one week and lost my entire BR. The cards just didnt go my way. The next week I gathered as much extra cash as I could and have gotten half of what I lost back. It can be done.....

 

[jack.jackson]

If he now has 10k and continues to play 1-5 black,
what is the likelyhood he'll lose everything? zg

Thats a good question?

But without knowing what system hes using, rules in play, how accurate his play is, how aggressive his bet strategy, & conditions. Its immposible to tell exactly!
A 100-500 spread with a 10k BR is only 20 max bets Unless he hits a winning streak soon lady luck will personally introduce him to the blackjack gods:angel: I would say hes right at 50/50 given hes betting and playing accuratly.
He made a serious mistake by overbetting in proportion to his BR.
Downsize! Downsize!:whip:

 

[zengrifter]

All he can do is keep at it.

WRONG answer. If he keeps at it the way he's been doing it he's more likely than not to tap out. zg

 

[moo321]

WRONG answer. If he keeps at it the way he's been doing it he's more likely than not to tap out. zg

You can't be more likely to lose than win if you're playing with an edge, at least not at the 100 unit level or higher. Your risk of ruin might be 25 or 30%, but not above 50.

 

[zengrifter]

You can't be more likely to lose than win if you're playing with an edge, at least not at the 100 unit level or higher. Your risk of ruin might be 25 or 30%, but not above 50.

Is Moo right? Anyone? zg

 

[nc-tom]

Is Moo right? Anyone? zg

If he is at the 100un level and wants to get back to 200un level after checking cvcx with that goal in mind and no time limit the ROR is 36.43%. Being on the cautious side myself I would cut back to betting under 1% kelly until things turned around.

 

[zengrifter]

If he is at the 100un level and wants to get back to 200un level after checking cvcx with that goal in mind and no time limit the ROR is 36.43%.

100u 1-5 spread 2D - 35% RoR? OK. zg

 

[sagefr0g]

You can't be more likely to lose than win if you're playing with an edge, at least not at the 100 unit level or higher. Your risk of ruin might be 25 or 30%, but not above 50.

i think if you have a ROR 30% or above that you are likely betting twice the optimal bet or more. according to Wong a better that goes over twice the optimal bet level consistantly will lose money even if playing under what should be advantage conditions. again according to Wong it can be mathematically proven that such a betting will result in ruin.
i haven't seen the maths proof. my guess is that having a limited bankroll and overbetting results in times when the negative fluctuation is so great that eventually it exceeds what bank you do have.

 

[Sonny]

100u 1-5 spread 2D - 35% RoR? OK. zg

That is assuming his goal is to win 100 units. His risk of going broke before winning 100 units is probably about 35%. If you look at the lifetime RoR (with no goal or time constraints) it will probably be closer to 75%. That gives him a 25% chance of not going broke if he continues to play at that level.

-Sonny-

 

[Canceler]

Thank you, Sonny!

If you look at the lifetime RoR (with no goal or time constraints) it will probably be closer to 75%.

With a quick & dirty sim using KO and PowerSim, I got about 60%. I was wondering why I seemed so far off from the other estimates.