Economics of Card Counting

Status
Not open for further replies.
#1
I've invested a modicum of time in memorizing basic strategy, reading on the various counting strategies, understanding the math behind them (still don't understand all of that), and practicing counting on simulators. I'm still not good enough at that where I don't lose the count quickly because of the speed and pace of the dealer, though.

But, something I hope someone here can clear up is what is a reasonable profit to expect? I know the standard answer to that is "it depends". Yes, it depends on the rules for that table, table limits, bet spread, etc... but from what I've read/calculated on my own, the expected rate of return is astonishingly slim.

I'd like to be able to make enough within 6-8 hours of play to just pay for the weekend trip to Vegas with my wife... the hotel, a nice show, nice dinner. And, to address the comps issue, in the few trips we've taken (we like to go about every 4 months), I've never been offered a comp for anything, so I'm not looking to count on that to cover expenses.

Is it at all reasonable to expect that putting in more hours of research and practice to perfect the counting will pay off in the way I want it to? I don't want to continue investing such a huge portion of my time for a $2-$13/hour profit margin. That seems ridiculous.
 

paddywhack

Well-Known Member
#2
Enigma said:
I've invested a modicum of time in memorizing basic strategy, reading on the various counting strategies, understanding the math behind them (still don't understand all of that), and practicing counting on simulators. I'm still not good enough at that where I don't lose the count quickly because of the speed and pace of the dealer, though.

But, something I hope someone here can clear up is what is a reasonable profit to expect? I know the standard answer to that is "it depends". Yes, it depends on the rules for that table, table limits, bet spread, etc... but from what I've read/calculated on my own, the expected rate of return is astonishingly slim.

I'd like to be able to make enough within 6-8 hours of play to just pay for the weekend trip to Vegas with my wife... the hotel, a nice show, nice dinner. And, to address the comps issue, in the few trips we've taken (we like to go about every 4 months), I've never been offered a comp for anything, so I'm not looking to count on that to cover expenses.

Is it at all reasonable to expect that putting in more hours of research and practice to perfect the counting will pay off in the way I want it to? I don't want to continue investing such a huge portion of my time for a $2-$13/hour profit margin. That seems ridiculous.
$2-13/hr is well within reason for a red chip player with a small spread. There are many who play with an expectation of $100/hr or more. That being said, it requires a fairly large bankroll to handle the inevitable variance of the game.

I started off with an expectation as a red chipper of less than $8 per hour. That was reasonable to me as I was mainly learning the game, getting a feel for the whole routine, and building a bankroll. And I was having fun too.

Now my expectation is many times that number and continues to go up as my bankroll increases.

As for the "being offered" a comp - that's not a common occurance. They generally don't come up to you while you are playing and say "here, go have dinner on us". Ask the pit for the comp is what is generally required. "No ask, no get".

Being rated with a player's card can get you some discounts too, especially as a red chipper who probably doesn't pose much of a threat to most strip casino's bottom line.

It would be nice to play 6-8 hours and pay for your trip. It'll happen sometimes too. But a lot of times you'll lose a bunch of money in those hours too.
 

bigplayer

Well-Known Member
#3
Enigma said:
I've invested a modicum of time in memorizing basic strategy, reading on the various counting strategies, understanding the math behind them (still don't understand all of that), and practicing counting on simulators. I'm still not good enough at that where I don't lose the count quickly because of the speed and pace of the dealer, though.

But, something I hope someone here can clear up is what is a reasonable profit to expect? I know the standard answer to that is "it depends". Yes, it depends on the rules for that table, table limits, bet spread, etc... but from what I've read/calculated on my own, the expected rate of return is astonishingly slim.

I'd like to be able to make enough within 6-8 hours of play to just pay for the weekend trip to Vegas with my wife... the hotel, a nice show, nice dinner. And, to address the comps issue, in the few trips we've taken (we like to go about every 4 months), I've never been offered a comp for anything, so I'm not looking to count on that to cover expenses.

Is it at all reasonable to expect that putting in more hours of research and practice to perfect the counting will pay off in the way I want it to? I don't want to continue investing such a huge portion of my time for a $2-$13/hour profit margin. That seems ridiculous.
Your profit margin isn't just the amount >$0, but the difference from the negative expectation you would have if you just played like a typical casino customer. If you played perfect basic strategy you might be losing $7 per hour (extrapolating from your figures above). If you play and get a $13 win rate that's a $20 per hour difference from play basic strategy alone.

Most of us learned to count simply for the mental challenge. Playing low stakes you're not really going to have any sort of real income and factoring in the variance the C.E. doesn't make it worth the time...so the money becomes simply a way of keeping score. If you can go from -$7 per hour to +$13 per hour and get a few free meals and all of your drinks for free and manage to win you will feel a lot better about your choice of a vacation destination. Who knows, maybe you'll even get backed off and have a story to tell your friends. The thought of just giving my money away without a fight is not really entertaining to me. The thought of maybe winning or losing but at least knowing that I have the best of it and am expected to win, now the thought of that is somewhat entertaining.

It takes practice to be able to count down a live game and hold the count until the shuffle without the speed of the game and other distractions getting the best of you. That's why most people suggest learning to count down a deck accurately in 25 seconds or less. You never have to do it that fast in the real world, but working up to speed makes you more impervious to distractions and errors. In live play you might choose to play locals casinos and the low stakes double deck games...then you only have to hold the count for 2 or 3 minutes at a time before you can reset to 0.
 
#4
I'm grateful for the comments thus far. Keep 'em coming, I'd really like to be a part of the "club", as it were.

I can count down a deck under 30 seconds, that has been my goal. In sim play, I'm used to multi-card negation, and applying the difference to the running count. But the table is much bigger than my PC screen, and with multiple players and their cards getting scooped up if they bust, that's where my concentration breaks.

I did, in fact, ask about comps to a pit boss once, and was informed that I had to bet twice the table minimum to qualify. My budget isn't that large when I go. For my wife, gambling is more of a side entertainment rather than the main event. After a couple of hours of play, she gets afraid I'm either going to blow my whole budget, or lose what I've won (when I'm ahead). If I could win more consistently, and in better amounts, I can justify the commitment, and convince her to make the trip to Vegas more often. But, it sounds like I can't build the experience or the bank without several more years of doing this. I don't have the time to go to locals during the week.

Sounds like it's kind of a catch-22. I can't win what I'm looking to without having more money to invest, which I won't have unless I can win more.
 

Dyepaintball12

Well-Known Member
#5
Enigma said:
I'm grateful for the comments thus far. Keep 'em coming, I'd really like to be a part of the "club", as it were.

I can count down a deck under 30 seconds, that has been my goal. In sim play, I'm used to multi-card negation, and applying the difference to the running count. But the table is much bigger than my PC screen, and with multiple players and their cards getting scooped up if they bust, that's where my concentration breaks.

I did, in fact, ask about comps to a pit boss once, and was informed that I had to bet twice the table minimum to qualify. My budget isn't that large when I go. For my wife, gambling is more of a side entertainment rather than the main event. After a couple of hours of play, she gets afraid I'm either going to blow my whole budget, or lose what I've won (when I'm ahead). If I could win more consistently, and in better amounts, I can justify the commitment, and convince her to make the trip to Vegas more often. But, it sounds like I can't build the experience or the bank without several more years of doing this. I don't have the time to go to locals during the week.

Sounds like it's kind of a catch-22. I can't win what I'm looking to without having more money to invest, which I won't have unless I can win more.
You either need to make money outside of the game to build up a bankroll or combine your current BR with others to increase your profits.

Also, I don't know what betting levels you currently play at, but when you say you've made trips in the past and have "never been offered any comps"... You need to ask for them!!! Most bosses will at least humor the idea!
 

Shoofly

Well-Known Member
#6
Enigma said:
I'm grateful for the comments thus far. Keep 'em coming, I'd really like to be a part of the "club", as it were.

I can count down a deck under 30 seconds, that has been my goal. In sim play, I'm used to multi-card negation, and applying the difference to the running count. But the table is much bigger than my PC screen, and with multiple players and their cards getting scooped up if they bust, that's where my concentration breaks.

I did, in fact, ask about comps to a pit boss once, and was informed that I had to bet twice the table minimum to qualify. My budget isn't that large when I go. For my wife, gambling is more of a side entertainment rather than the main event. After a couple of hours of play, she gets afraid I'm either going to blow my whole budget, or lose what I've won (when I'm ahead). If I could win more consistently, and in better amounts, I can justify the commitment, and convince her to make the trip to Vegas more often. But, it sounds like I can't build the experience or the bank without several more years of doing this. I don't have the time to go to locals during the week.

Sounds like it's kind of a catch-22. I can't win what I'm looking to without having more money to invest, which I won't have unless I can win more.
Regarding comps, each place is different. I recently took a 4 day trip to Tunica and didn't pay for a meal. Back home, at one of the places I play regularly, it would take a couple of months of steady play to qualify for a meal. Read the posts on these forums and you can get good information as to where you can get the best comps.
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#7
The problem with counting is that you could probably get enough EV in 8 hours to pay for a trip, but you have no idea what your variance will look like. It takes hundreds of hours to be reasonably sure of making a profit.
 

BJgenius007

Well-Known Member
#8
Shoofly said:
Regarding comps, each place is different. I recently took a 4 day trip to Tunica and didn't pay for a meal. Back home, at one of the places I play regularly, it would take a couple of months of steady play to qualify for a meal. Read the posts on these forums and you can get good information as to where you can get the best comps.
There is a good reason for that. According to "Casino Player", most casinos like Harrah's sort the BJ players into three category:

Ploppy who have no idea of BJ: 1.5% rebate.

Basic Strategy player: 0.5% rebate.

Counter : 0.002% rebate.

Once you are made, you can anticipate the casino give you one meal after months.
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#9
BJgenius007 said:
There is a good reason for that. According to "Casino Player", most casinos like Harrah's sort the BJ players into three category:

Ploppy who have no idea of BJ: 1.5% rebate.

Basic Strategy player: 0.5% rebate.

Counter : 0.002% rebate.

Once you are made, you can anticipate the casino give you one meal after months.
I doubt that was why he didn't get comps at his home casino. If they knew he was a counter, he would probably have been backed off.
 

paddywhack

Well-Known Member
#10
bigplayer said:
Your profit margin isn't just the amount >$0, but the difference from the negative expectation you would have if you just played like a typical casino customer. If you played perfect basic strategy you might be losing $7 per hour (extrapolating from your figures above). If you play and get a $13 win rate that's a $20 per hour difference from play basic strategy alone.
Very good point.

bigplayer said:
Most of us learned to count simply for the mental challenge. Playing low stakes you're not really going to have any sort of real income and factoring in the variance the C.E. doesn't make it worth the time...so the money becomes simply a way of keeping score. If you can go from -$7 per hour to +$13 per hour and get a few free meals and all of your drinks for free and manage to win you will feel a lot better about your choice of a vacation destination. Who knows, maybe you'll even get backed off and have a story to tell your friends. The thought of just giving my money away without a fight is not really entertaining to me. The thought of maybe winning or losing but at least knowing that I have the best of it and am expected to win, now the thought of that is somewhat entertaining.
To me it's actually become THE entertainment. I know I should win - now how are the cards going to screw it up this time. Winning's good, very good. Looking back at many of the losing sessions I can usually pinpoint one or two hands that went the dealer's way that would have turned that loss into a profit. Usually a multiple split/double down situation that went totally wrong or one of those miracle 5-6 card 21's that the dealer pulls with a huge pos count.
 

Shoofly

Well-Known Member
#12
moo321 said:
I doubt that was why he didn't get comps at his home casino. If they knew he was a counter, he would probably have been backed off.
It's simply that different casinos handle comps in different ways. This particular place doesn't comp much in meals for table games. In fairness, they send mailers for other type comps such as small amounts of cash.
 
#14
I NEVER ask for comps! I practice "hit and run" at Indian Casinos, and never stay the night at one. If I overnight, I get a motel down the street. I'm in N. California.

Now, if I go to Reno, I will book a room at a hotel that is NOT a casino I will be playing in!

I only made that mistake once at an Indian Casino that I had burned for a nice quick run before. I booked a room, got my card, and Whoooa! The pit critter came over and whispered sweet nothings in my ear, about knowing all about me! How rude!

I beleive I am in the Griffin book, and have been for a long time. I blew my cover that night, and regret it.

But hey, all they need to do is look at the license plate on your car, and shoot photos of you, and youre in it.

I always buy my chips at the cashiers cage, so its harder for them to track my winnings. But they do anyway. I have had a pit tell me exactly how much in chips I had stuck in my jacket, in spite of all the efforts to hide my bankroll.

My advice to you is: increase your winnings by employing a larger bet spread, and use bet tracking to try to hit when you get into a win streak. Of course, use AP if you are capable of it. Pick a table where you have a slow, rookie dealer, and Wonging works well, too.

Gambling is just that, gambling! No matter what, a systems APlayer, or what ever you use. And it is really a short term expectation, so go for the gusto my friend!

If the casino is going to rape you, at least relax and enjoy it! :whip:
 
#15
better lucky than good said:
I only made that mistake once at an Indian Casino that I had burned for a nice quick run before. I booked a room, got my card, and Whoooa! The pit critter came over and whispered sweet nothings in my ear, about knowing all about me! How rude!

I beleive I am in the Griffin book, and have been for a long time. I blew my cover that night, and regret it.

...

I always buy my chips at the cashiers cage, so its harder for them to track my winnings. But they do anyway. I have had a pit tell me exactly how much in chips I had stuck in my jacket, in spite of all the efforts to hide my bankroll.

My advice to you is: increase your winnings by employing a larger bet spread, and use bet tracking to try to hit when you get into a win streak. Of course, use AP if you are capable of it. Pick a table where you have a slow, rookie dealer, and Wonging works well, too.

Gambling is just that, gambling! No matter what, a systems APlayer, or what ever you use. And it is really a short term expectation, so go for the gusto my friend!

If the casino is going to rape you, at least relax and enjoy it! :whip:
With all due respect, this seems wrong on so many levels... :cool:
 

Syph

Well-Known Member
#16
Enigma said:
After a couple of hours of play, she gets afraid I'm either going to blow my whole budget, or lose what I've won (when I'm ahead). If I could win more consistently, and in better amounts, I can justify the commitment, and convince her to make the trip to Vegas more often.
Don't take up counting.

Even in the most excellent games using an extremely disciplined approach, you will have hourly fluctuations amounting to at least ten times your expectation. These fluctuations are real and tangible, your expectation ... not so much. Expectation is just that: expectation. You can't expect to see it for hundreds, or even thousands, of hours. Even then, depending on how good your game is, you could only have a 60-70% chance of being ahead. And even at the red chip level, you will need thousands of dollars to reach that point. A general guideline is to have about 100 top bets for a recreational player. And you'll need them.

If you wish to take up counting, and may the gods have mercy on your soul, I've found the only viable approach for a solo player is to treat it as a long term investment. Do your sims, look at the probability of being ahead after, say 1000 hours, determine your bankroll, and put in the time. If you decide you have a good game, can afford $50 top bets, then your will need about $5000 to make to the end of that 1000 hours. At which point, you have an excellent chance of having doubled your roll.

The difference between expectation and actual results is poorly understood by recreational players. A quick and dirty rule of thumb is to expect (80-90% probability) half your expectation in about 1000 hours when playing an average game with an extremely disciplined approach (table departures, optimal betting, no cover, no tipping allowed).

As you can see, most people have better things to do than average about $5/hr by the end of the year ... even with that alluring $10/hr expectation.

Your wife will not support you in this endeavor. Correction. If you can convince her that the results from any given day, week, or month are meaningless. And that a $5K bankroll is just that, a $5K bankroll invested in the dark arts of counting, and as such the roll is to be untouched until such time as 1000 hours has such passed, or it has doubled (whichever comes later. It's all about the long run, babe) well ... you have a chance of success.

Good luck with that.

Best,
Syph
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top