Economics of Card Counting

[Syph]

Show me a successful counter ...

And I'll show you a very slow learner.



Best,
Syph

 

[FLASH1296]

Novice earnest young Card Counters are shocked to find that, on average, that they can expect to profit on
about 2/3 of their sessions; and probably about 60% if their skills are still in the process of being refined.

You are a callow youth.
Learn to believe your mate
In any random situation it is
7 to 5 that she is correct.

:whip:

 

[sagefr0g]

actually one can know what to expect for any given number of rounds played. but what you get and what you expect, can be another thing.
but one can also know various ranges within standard deviations as far as what to expect for any given number of rounds.

 

[zengrifter]

Show me a successful counter ...

And I'll show you a very slow learner.



Best,
Syph

Tou'che! Okay, any successful counters here? Scout's Honor!! zg

 

[zengrifter]

Show me a successful counter ...
And I'll show you a very slow learner.

What form of AP are you most successful and enthusiastic with, after 10 years of AP study and application? zg

 

[Syph]

What form of AP are you most successful and enthusiastic with, after 10 years of AP study and application? zg

I probably have to say I am most enthusiastic about blackjack, but I've probably had the least success with it, hah!

I'm not sure how my lifestyle really mirrors others who play full-time. I have generally found that having an awareness of all the games in a given casino, and their possible points of weakness, has landed exceptional days. I've mentioned James before, but although brief our time, his influence on my game has been significant. He continually sought out the ability to beat every game in the casino. And I think that was part of the philosophy he tried to hammer home in Beyond Counting:

Locking your mind into a singular approach blinds you to potentially lucrative opportunities.

For recreational players, I would generally recommend turning to poker. Live low-stakes NL cash games, in particular. The trick here is not to begin with the cards, but the human element. Play when you are at your strongest, and your opposition is at it's weakest. Game select on the basis of relative table lucidity. 3AM is an excellent time. Enter then, with *crystal* clarity and a *patient* methodical approach and you will be bombproof. And I don't care against whom. You'll walk through everyone.

There is more to be said on this sort of thing, and we all find our own way. Personally, I strive to position myself in such a manner, relative to my environment, that skill is not required. I'm just not that good. And I think that if you look at how great fortunes are made, you'll find some evidence that general logistics, and not subtle nuance, were the determining factors.

Let your dim light shine.

All the best,
Syph

 

[blackjack avenger]

A Broad Brush?

To say counting is either lucrative or not depends on some variables:
Skill of player
Style of player
games available

So it's very relative
:joker::whip:

good cards

 

[Syph]

To say counting is either lucrative or not depends on some variables:
Skill of player
Style of player
games available

So it's very relative
:joker::whip:

good cards

Hi BA,

Well, granted that money can be made from counting. However, its a very weak form of advantage play. Its really the equivalent of big game hunting armed with a rubber band and a paper clip, and I don't care what kind of rubber band you are using.

Even those nifty red ones.

I have access to some exceptional games. ES, deep pen, RSA, no heat. All the good stuff. NOs hover around 7500. But a typical low-stakes, and even mid-stakes, live NL cash game on the weekend has about twice the comparative return and half the variance for those with limited bankrolls.

I won't get into details, but I hit a bad stretch at one point in this field. We all do, it's inevitable. So on a lark, I wandered into a live 1-2 NL cash game. Made about $20K that summer. I don't think I ever was down more than a few hundred on any given session. I found that when the money went in, I was routinely averaging 40%-60% advantages. You just won't find that with counting. Or tracking. Or your favorite dealer who's flashing (most of the time) that one card, 3CP game.

Truth be told, solo counters struggling with yearly returns around the mid five-figure mark should all be playing 1-2 poker. Mind you, I acknowledge that we don't all play for the same reasons. However, if you are putting any significant time in at the tables, you'll find a far more diverse cross section of humanity at poker than BJ. So, the working conditions are also better.

And it's fun taking money from doctors.

Best,
Syph

 

[BUZZARD]

poker can suck it. I also have access to deep pen ES DAS and no heat in PA and there is no way im going into that poker room so some friggin donkey can snap me off with k 10 off and make a flush. And then do it again. You claim you can make twice the comparative return than someone wonging these tables? BS. Or maybe you are too lazy to wong. Probably just wanna sit there on your ass staring at pre flop trash all day. If it works for you-fine. But coming in here and tellin him to play nl poker is annoying. It is much, much more difficult to learn how to play a strong enough poker game to survive than to count. And I cant wait for him to tell his wife he has to leave at 2:30 each morning because this is the best time to dominate the drunk 1-2NL noobs. Bomb- proof? Thats a good one. A 1-2NL game in the wee hours? There are going to be big ,annoying, stinky, giant turd bombs going off right directly in his face and nothing he could do about it.

 

[Sharky]

hey buzz,

where are there ES games in PA? i was told they are all LS.

 

[kewljason]

And it's fun taking money from doctors.
Syph

I personally found some of your comments in this thread to be offensive and unworthy of a response, so I refrained from such. However, I will comment on this one.

You aren't just taking from doctors. :laugh: Many poker players are people who are financially in a bad way. I personally know a couple that live in their cars during bad times and live in weekly motels during good. :sad: In a sense you are preying on weak and needy individuals much the same as casinos do. Now that's OK. You are not responsible for the decisions that these folks have made, nor the position they have put themselves in, but don't kid yourself into thinking you are taking from doctors and lawyers, just to make yourself feel better. A BJ AP is taking profits from the casino. A poker AP is taking from the other players!

 

[zengrifter]

For recreational players, I would generally recommend turning to poker. Live low-stakes NL cash games, in particular.

I would say blackjack is STILL better...
...BUT for poker I recommend small fast tourneys, instead, using Snyder's Poker Tournament Formula

 

[zengrifter]

[Card counting is] the equivalent of big game hunting armed with a rubber band and a paper clip, and I don't care what kind of rubber band you are using. Even those nifty red ones.

You so funny, Gaijin! z:laugh:g

 

[zengrifter]

I won't get into details, but I hit a bad stretch at one point in this field. We all do, it's inevitable. So on a lark, I wandered into a live 1-2 NL cash game. Made about $20K that summer. I don't think I ever was down more than a few hundred on any given session. I found that when the money went in, I was routinely averaging 40%-60% advantages.

Most of us do not possess the natural innate mentalist skills of a Syph.
Notwithstanding your experience, the unique cast of fish you enjoyed as well as your luck factor,
cannot be ignored.

Poker is way too subjective to easily quantify. zg

 

[Syph]

I personally found some of your comments in this thread to be offensive and unworthy of a response, so I refrained from such. However, I will comment on this one.

Oh, happy day.

You aren't just taking from doctors. :laugh:

Straw dog.

Many poker players are people who are financially in a bad way.

Hasty generalization.

I personally know a couple that live in their cars during bad times and live in weekly motels during good. :sad:

Converse fallacy of accident.

In a sense you are preying on weak and needy individuals much the same as casinos do.

Fallacy of accident.

Now that's OK. You are not responsible for the decisions that these folks have made, nor the position they have put themselves in ...

Argument by innuendo

... but don't kid yourself into thinking you are taking from doctors and lawyers, just to make yourself feel better.

Non sequitur.

A BJ AP is taking profits from the casino. A poker AP is taking from the other players!

Feel free to swing by my table anytime.

Best,
Syph

 

[Syph]

Most of us do not possess the natural innate mentalist skills of a Syph.
Notwithstanding your experience, the unique cast of fish you enjoyed as well as your luck factor,
cannot be ignored.

Poker is way too subjective to easily quantify. zg

Thank you for the kind words, Zg, however I assure you at the lower stakes, poker is exceptionally easy to beat, even employing a purely mechanical approach.

(assuming, of course, conditions are met)

Best,
Syph

 

[Syph]

poker can suck it. I also have access to deep pen ES DAS and no heat in PA and there is no way im going into that poker room so some friggin donkey can snap me off with k 10 off and make a flush. And then do it again. You claim you can make twice the comparative return than someone wonging these tables? BS. Or maybe you are too lazy to wong. Probably just wanna sit there on your ass staring at pre flop trash all day. If it works for you-fine. But coming in here and tellin him to play nl poker is annoying. It is much, much more difficult to learn how to play a strong enough poker game to survive than to count. And I cant wait for him to tell his wife he has to leave at 2:30 each morning because this is the best time to dominate the drunk 1-2NL noobs. Bomb- proof? Thats a good one. A 1-2NL game in the wee hours? There are going to be big ,annoying, stinky, giant turd bombs going off right directly in his face and nothing he could do about it.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

.....
The difference between expectation and actual results is poorly understood by recreational players. A quick and dirty rule of thumb is to expect (80-90% probability) half your expectation in about 1000 hours when playing an average game with an extremely disciplined approach (table departures, optimal betting, no cover, no tipping allowed)....

I think I see the problem. Math.

No, I expect exactly my expectation value for any period of time. That's why we call it that. I also expect the actual result to possibly vary greatly from my EV. We call that vary-ance, and it is also calculable.

Successful counting in the present environment requires creative thinking, carefully engineered tactics along with reasonably skilled execution.

 

[zengrifter]

BJINFO needs a poker forum!!! zg

 

[moo321]

I personally found some of your comments in this thread to be offensive and unworthy of a response, so I refrained from such. However, I will comment on this one.

You aren't just taking from doctors. :laugh: Many poker players are people who are financially in a bad way. I personally know a couple that live in their cars during bad times and live in weekly motels during good. :sad: In a sense you are preying on weak and needy individuals much the same as casinos do. Now that's OK. You are not responsible for the decisions that these folks have made, nor the position they have put themselves in, but don't kid yourself into thinking you are taking from doctors and lawyers, just to make yourself feel better. A BJ AP is taking profits from the casino. A poker AP is taking from the other players!

I don't agree. I have found most of the poker players in casinos to not be complete degenerates. If they are degenerates, they tend to have the money to support it. Many of the doctors and lawyers play poker, especially at mid and high limit games. I've seen very few degenerates in the poker room in the casino. The "charity" games and poker clubs are another story...