Syph said:
I was just perusing the threads, and realized I never got around to answering this:
Actually, at my poker games I know within seconds whether the game is worth playing. Most regs will tell you the same. And it can be quite simple. For instance, when Wilfred comes ... the game is good. I've taken thousands off Wilfred (just over the weekend, actually) and he simply doesn't care. It's pocket change to him, and he likes playing at my table.
And I like him playing at my table.
(that meeting-the-needs, thing)
Insofar as sizing up unknowns, it's not terribly difficult. The moment they step in to the room, I can all but tell you what they had for breakfast. And anyone can do the same. We make pretty accurate snap judgments, books are easy to read, and the covers are pretty good indications of what's inside.
Wow, hubris. Do you really believe you can tell what kind of a poker player a person is by looking at them? If so it explains why you aren't making any money- you are resorting to gambler's superstition and an irrational belief in your own superiority for your game selection. Sorry but I don't know of any nicer way to say it.
If I was going to switch to poker, it might be fun to design a game intended to take down skilled players with hubris. Showing them what they hope to see to indicate a good game, but actually giving them something else. A small team would do the job. There are poker AP's who would go bankrupt before they admitted their skills came up short, and that they were wrong.
Syph said:
Anyway, after 1000 hours in a typical count game, no counter can reasonably (and by that I mean with 90% probability) expect to attain what his expectation is calculated to be. This is not a matter of debate, it's simply a brute reality of the game.
I believe the simulation is quite clear. Insofar as expecting to see half my EV from counting over a given duration of time... if anything, knowing that reality may have made my experiences as a counter somewhat more palatable. Solo advantage players who play for a living don't have the luxury of hoping to attain their expectation at some unknowable point in the future. At least, I don't. Baby needs a new pair of shoes. KJ needs his weed. That sorta thing. That's why I like my 1000 hours mark for a counter. Few can put significantly more time than that in a year, and it's just enough of a time commitment to reasonably expect to attain half of your expectation.
That all said, I must be honest and state that a straight count game would never satisfy me. It's simply too weak and transparent for my tastes. The edge too slight and the fluctuations too large. Most discover the same within short order of full-time play.
Best,
Syph
I don't consider 90% to be the threshold for "reasonable," but that's just a matter of opinion.
Most of what you say is correct. To be a full-time player with no other income requires enormous reserves, enough to endure a bad year plus pay all of your yearly expenses out of your bankroll, and still have a bankroll. My personal target would be $250K cash on hand, minimum.
However when you have a J-O-B, you don't have to worry about not having a BR anymore or how you are going to pay your expenses. And the best part is, your EV is your EV. Sure, there are the sessions where I get killed, and they are exactly made up for by the ones where the blessings run me down and overtake me, and it doesn't really matter whether it happens this year or next. An AP with an additional source of income can do some amazing things and come back next weekend for some more. Being a weekend warrior raises my standard of living significantly, and same for many other guys in my class.
Now you are speaking of putting in 1000 hours a year, that's about 20 hours a week, how many people with middle-class incomes work 20 hours a week? What are you doing with the other 20-40 hours in a normal American workweek?
No free lunch. I suppose it would be fun to be a "weekday warrior" hauling ice or bouncing or sitting behind a desk for a couple of days, then punching the clock, hitting the road and the real job begins.
Maybe that would work for you, if you have inflexible expenses, pay your expenses with a J-O-B and use your AP skills to pay for everything else. Then you can worry less about BR and concentrate more on maximizing EV. I don't see 1-2 NL doing it for you, that's volatile as hell even with your "bulletproof" system and if you are corrupting your game with your opinions and attitudes, well that's already been said, right?
:cry:
