Penetrating Indecision of Indices

blackjack avenger

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
If I understand correcty indices can have different values depending on penetration. My question is what is the effect that penetration has on indicies in a shoe? Do they tend to have higher or lower values as one gets deeper in the shoe? I would think the effect would be negligible but am still curious.

Thanks for anyone's time
good cards

:joker::whip:
 
Now this is just conjecture on my part, but here's my understanding.

Let's say that an EV-maximizing index would be to double something when the advantage is +2%.

So later in the shoe, you'd need a slightly lower TC to have a +2% advantage due to the floating advantage. Therefore, at least in a doubling index, the index would drop very slightly as you get more towards the end of the shoe.
 
blackjack avenger said:
If I understand correcty indices can have different values depending on penetration. My question is what is the effect that penetration has on indicies in a shoe? Do they tend to have higher or lower values as one gets deeper in the shoe? I would think the effect would be negligible but am still curious.
Click to expand...

This is the floating advantage as mentioned by assume_R and is discussed here http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=14515&highlight=floating+advantage. I think the consensus is that the floating advantage is so insignificant that there are no indexes that will accommodate it. Besides, there aren't many games that are dealt deep enough to even invoke the floating advantage.
 
Alas, true count, like true love, is rarely true.

Let's look at some one-deck data for these three systems. These simulations were done in the same way, though results were tabulated at only three deck levels: 25%, 50% and 75%. A total of 20.1 million hands were played by the 75% level. Again, these results are for Vegas Strip rules, and assume that no ace side counts are being used.

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/howtrueisyourtruecount.html
1deck
Ho1
Zen
UstonAPC
HTML: 
	[B]25%	50%	75%[/B]
-2	-1.18	-.79	-.62
-1	-.51	-.63	-.63
0	-.03	.05	.23
+1	.75	.80	.80
+2	1.06	1.24	1.54
+3	1.38	1.45	1.45
+4	2.05	2.25	2.63

	[B]25%	50%	75[/B]%
-2	-.26	-.02	.13
-1	-.06	-.17	-.17
0	-.01	.02	.16
+1	.34	.45	.45
+2	.89	1.05	1.32
+3	.81	.99	.99
+4	1.10	1.27	1.53

 	[B]25%	50%	75%[/B]
-2	-.67	-.59	-.26
-1	-.58	-.38	-.21
0	-.03	.01	.14
+1	.54	.55	.62
+2	.71	1.01	1.33
+3	1.02	1.25	1.36
+4	1.68	1.76	2.03

The higher the TC the higher the effect.

Avenger you should run indices for 2deck and 6deck amd compare the differences. Also, since you use a L3 count you should see noticiable discrepencies.
 
4deck hi-opt1

HTML: 
	[b]50%	62.5%	75%	87.5%[/b]
-2	-1.40	-1.41	-1.38	-1.30
-1	-.85	-.86	-.84	-.84
0	-.41	-.41	-.41	-.38
+1	.10	.13	.13	.18
+2	.53	.57	.62	.66
+3	.87	.96	1.05	1.13
+4	1.36	1.52	1.70	1.8
+5	1.58	1.81	2.14	2.22
 
jack said:
Avenger you should run indices for 2deck and 6deck amd compare the differences. Also, since you use a L3 count you should see noticiable discrepencies.
Click to expand...
He may see noticeable differences BUT if he sims results over 200M+ hands he
will find not enough difference to warrant different indices for 2D vs 6-8D. Yes? zg
 
The indices that we use are all approximations.

In a pitch game the original (Raw Data) Hi-Opt II Index for standing on a 16 vs 10 is -.3

If at particular depths of pen' it is -.2 or -.4 will be entirely moot.

Of course we all use 0.
 
zengrifter said:
He may see noticeable differences BUT if he sims results over 200M+ hands he
will find not enough difference to warrant different indices for 2D vs 6-8D. Yes? zg
Click to expand...

it appears so. I ran CV index for halves with 9v7 for 6D and 1D and 11vX with H02 and there was no change. I was really surprised and disappointed. I thought for sure the index for 1deck would be lower. Maybe i'll check insurance deck levels, and see if theres any difference.
 
Not Between Shoes but Same Shoe

I am not asking about the difference between 1 deck and shoe indicies. I am curious about what happens to indicies as a shoe is depleted. I think the general consensus so far is they go down, but not an appreciable amount.

:joker::whip:
good cards
 
blackjack avenger said:
I am not asking about the difference between 1 deck and shoe indicies. I am curious about what happens to indicies as a shoe is depleted. I think the general consensus so far is they go down, but not an appreciable amount.

:joker::whip:
good cards
Click to expand...

i tried various pack penetrations for a double deck game 16vs10 using kc's tdca, and found no change in ev's for the various possibilities......
errhh do you have some specific situations i could maybe check with tdca?
 
Thanks for Offering

I have no idea the time or involvement. I will list some and you do what you wish.

halves, 6 deck, h17, rsa
3 deck penetration & 4.5 deck penetration, comparing at both penetrations.
ins
15v10
12v3

:joker::whip:
thanks, good cards
 
blackjack avenger said:
I have no idea the time or involvement. I will list some and you do what you wish.

halves, 6 deck, h17, rsa
3 deck penetration & 4.5 deck penetration, comparing at both penetrations.
ins
15v10
12v3

:joker::whip:
thanks, good cards
Click to expand...

ok i just used hi/lo, errhh i didn't know how to set up halves......
erhh, and i used 6deck,h17,das, rsa (no doubling split aces)...
did 40%, 60%, 75% & 90% pen with same discard composition fairly early in the game, sorta thing. set it up at tc=4 as that is the indice.
found no difference in ev's
 

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sagefr0g said:
ok i just used hi/lo, errhh i didn't know how to set up halves......
erhh, and i used 6deck,h17,das, rsa (no doubling split aces)...
did 40%, 60%, 75% & 90% pen with same discard composition fairly early in the game, sorta thing. set it up at tc=4 as that is the indice.
found no difference in ev's
Click to expand...

All four figures are exactly the same.
 
iCountNTrack said:
All four figures are exactly the same.
Click to expand...

yes they are the same but in order they are for 40%, 60%, 75% & 90% pen .
errhh same initial discard tray and pack (known) state excepting for penetration.
edit: note: in the images the pen 'meter' in blue on the side does not reflect what we normally call penetration, but instead show how far along dealing and play has progressed....
 
Don't Let the Facts Fool You

Let's borrow from another thread.
77 vs 8 BS

In DD it's a split
In shoes it's a hit

Let's play a 6 deck shoe. If we get to the final 2 decks and their composition is exactly a complete 2 decks then the correct play is to split.

Aren't in general the indices for DD lower then for shoes? Specifically, for insurance; the most important indice, the indice drops if we get to exact composition 2 decks.

Here is another, the chances of getting a bj increase if perfect 2 deck composition vs the top of the shoe.

Finally, at perfect 2 deck composition the house advantage drops.

:joker::whip:
good cards
 
Thanks Sage a ?

sagefr0g said:
ok i just used hi/lo, errhh i didn't know how to set up halves......
erhh, and i used 6deck,h17,das, rsa (no doubling split aces)...
did 40%, 60%, 75% & 90% pen with same discard composition fairly early in the game, sorta thing. set it up at tc=4 as that is the indice.
found no difference in ev's
Click to expand...

Aren't all the screen shots the same? If so I would expect them to all have the same ev?
 
You may want to try again...

sagefr0g said:
yes they are the same but in order they are for 40%, 60%, 75% & 90% pen .
errhh same initial discard tray and pack (known) state excepting for penetration.
edit: note: in the images the pen 'meter' in blue on the side does not reflect what we normally call penetration, but instead show how far along dealing and play has progressed....
Click to expand...
Sorry, but I think you've had some sort of malfunction here. The pen meter reflects how many cards have been removed from the shoe, regardless of how they were removed.
 
Canceler said:
Sorry, but I think you've had some sort of malfunction here. The pen meter reflects how many cards have been removed from the shoe, regardless of how they were removed.
Click to expand...

errhh, well, like ok, when i set some pack at say 80% pen, and then compute with no cards dealt, then the pen meter shows no color. same thing for no matter what pen percentage i set the program for......
now if i deal out some cards, the pen meter starts showing the blue color indicating depth into the pack having been dealt.
i mean, that's how my version of the program is performing, far as i can tell it just represents essentially discards.

examples below:
1st image the state is computed for 80% pen zero cards dealt
2nd image same state & 80% pen except three cards dealt
edit: so as i perceive it the pen meter doesn't reflect the penetration as we 'traditional' think of it, sorta thing.
 

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