Some Advice Please

[xpress88]

I've teamed up with a trusted friend for a $5000 bankroll using the Red 7 system with half-kelly. I've had a run of good flux while my friend is taking quite the beating (me being up more than $2000 and him being down about $1500 in 50 hours). This $5000 bankroll is more of a test to see if we're both competent enough to card count at higher bankrolls. I guess you can call us red-chippers at the moment.

Anyways I plan on taking out a $10k-$20k student loan to take advantage play more seriously. Added together with my friend's bankroll we could probably get it to $25-30k. I know that taking out a loan to invest in card counting sounds insane to most people, but I figure since other have people invest their money into this kind of thing, it seems rational. I've gone through the risk of ruin concepts and I would think playing half-kelly with one other teammate would reduce the negative fluctuations. (On the offchance we completely lose that bankroll, it wouldn't be life-threatening, but I'd probably get my ass kicked by my family.)

Also playing with a $25k bankroll would put us in the green chip level, and I'm wondering if anyone can point out any significant differences between playing at red chip and green chip level. Not just the increased chance of getting more heat, but do ploppies at green chip level act signficiantly differently?

Another thing is that I went to downtown Vegas on my last trip and although the games seemed great, I felt like I stuck out too much and was constantly worried about getting mugged. (BTW I walked in to the El Cortez the tables were deserted) At the green chip level is it even worth playing in downtown Vegas, or are you just better off playing at the strip?

 

[mathman]

Stop watching the movie 21

Do yourself a huge favor and DO NOT BORROW MONEY TO PLAY BLACKJACK!! There is a strong possibility you can lose that money especially if you are just learning. Stick with the money you have and learn to play properly. If you're good enough you can work your way into the bankroll you desire. Be smart....JtMM

 

[HockeXpert]

(me being up more than $2000 and him being down about $1500 in 50 hours). This $5000 bankroll is more of a test to see if we're both competent enough to card count at higher bankrolls.

I would be careful grading your success on such a small sample. Luck is the biggest determining factor in your success to this point.

I know that taking out a loan to invest in card counting sounds insane to most people, but I figure since other have people invest their money into this kind of thing, it seems rational. I've gone through the risk of ruin concepts and I would think playing half-kelly with one other teammate would reduce the negative fluctuations. (On the offchance we completely lose that bankroll, it wouldn't be life-threatening, but I'd probably get my ass kicked by my family.)

What is your ror? Have you simmed your play? Double or triple the ror from the sim and ask yourself honestly if you can handle the risk. It's not crazy to take out a loan to finance your bj play but it is risky. I would suggest you and your partner expose yourselves to more before you take the leap and come up with a business plan with a better expectation than what your current m.o. is.

do ploppies at green chip level act signficiantly differently?

Ploppies come in all sizes and shapes regardless of their level of play. I've never noticed a difference based on their bet levels but then again I don't pay any attention to them except to glean their "wisdom" for my own use.

At the green chip level is it even worth playing in downtown Vegas, or are you just better off playing at the strip?

IMHO, downtown is not worth playing any more. There is only one place that has a playable game any more and it's not worth the trip if you can only hit one place. On the other hand, downtown is a good place for you to test your abilities and act. Like the song NYNY says "if I can make it there, I can make it anywhere":laugh: Personally, the strip isn't even that great any more. Keep seeking better games and oportunities.

Listen to what others say here and take what you can from their input.

Good luck.

 

[creeping panther]

Xpress

I've teamed up with a trusted friend for a $5000 bankroll using the Red 7 system with half-kelly. I've had a run of good flux while my friend is taking quite the beating (me being up more than $2000 and him being down about $1500 in 50 hours). This $5000 bankroll is more of a test to see if we're both competent enough to card count at higher bankrolls. I guess you can call us red-chippers at the moment.

Anyways I plan on taking out a $10k-$20k student loan to take advantage play more seriously. Added together with my friend's bankroll we could probably get it to $25-30k. I know that taking out a loan to invest in card counting sounds insane to most people, but I figure since other have people invest their money into this kind of thing, it seems rational. I've gone through the risk of ruin concepts and I would think playing half-kelly with one other teammate would reduce the negative fluctuations. (On the offchance we completely lose that bankroll, it wouldn't be life-threatening, but I'd probably get my ass kicked by my family.)

Also playing with a $25k bankroll would put us in the green chip level, and I'm wondering if anyone can point out any significant differences between playing at red chip and green chip level. Not just the increased chance of getting more heat, but do ploppies at green chip level act signficiantly differently?

Another thing is that I went to downtown Vegas on my last trip and although the games seemed great, I felt like I stuck out too much and was constantly worried about getting mugged. (BTW I walked in to the El Cortez the tables were deserted) At the green chip level is it even worth playing in downtown Vegas, or are you just better off playing at the strip?

Please take no loan to gamble,,,and don't kid yourself, we are all gamblers, counters, trackers, purveyors of all the magic arts.

If you do this loan thing you are a fool, and please don't come whinning here when all is lost.

Get a life and education as best you can in todays economy, but no loan to gamble. Far better people than you have come to this site and others, posted big time for months, then just faded away... you know why, they lost,,,with all their skills they still lost. Those people are just memories today, just like I predict you will be.

CP

 

[nighthawk718]

Here are some advices:

1. Play with the money that you can afford to lose.
2. Don't use the student loan for gamble.
3. Focus to education.

 

[BJLFS]

I agree with most of what's been said by other members. However, if you do take out the loan still stick with $3-$5 tables!! Especially in the beginning when you are making mistakes you can get a normal swing in your bankroll that could wipe it out. Also if you get that loan instead of having say 1000 units at $25 you would have at $5, 5000 units. In the beginning that is more important than the amount of money you could make by going to the higher units. Then as you get more experienced yu can increase the betting units.

Anyways please don't get the loan for BJ. Get your education first and remember that CC is not a get rich quick sheme.

 

[zengrifter]

Anyways I plan on taking out a $10k-$20k student loan to take advantage play more seriously. Added together with my friend's bankroll we could probably get it to $25-30k. I know that taking out a loan to invest in card counting sounds insane to most people, but I figure since other have people invest their money into this kind of thing, it seems rational. I've gone through the risk of ruin concepts and I would think playing half-kelly with one other teammate would reduce the negative fluctuations.

I think its valid. You know the risks. You will play 1/2kelly.
Its a good calculated shot. May the Force be with you! zg

 

[Canceler]

Its a good calculated shot. May the Force be with you! zg

Looking at the OP, and your comment, I couldn't help but think about a Qui-gon Jinn outcome.

 

[zengrifter]

Looking at the OP, and your comment, I couldn't help but think about a Qui-gon Jinn outcome.

He knows the risk. This could be the defining moment in a young AP's career. zg

 

[BJgenius007]

I've teamed up with a trusted friend for a $5000 bankroll using the Red 7 system with half-kelly. I've had a run of good flux while my friend is taking quite the beating (me being up more than $2000 and him being down about $1500 in 50 hours). This $5000 bankroll is more of a test to see if we're both competent enough to card count at higher bankrolls. I guess you can call us red-chippers at the moment.

Anyways I plan on taking out a $10k-$20k student loan to take advantage play more seriously. Added together with my friend's bankroll we could probably get it to $25-30k. I know that taking out a loan to invest in card counting sounds insane to most people, but I figure since other have people invest their money into this kind of thing, it seems rational. I've gone through the risk of ruin concepts and I would think playing half-kelly with one other teammate would reduce the negative fluctuations. (On the offchance we completely lose that bankroll, it wouldn't be life-threatening, but I'd probably get my ass kicked by my family.)

Also playing with a $25k bankroll would put us in the green chip level, and I'm wondering if anyone can point out any significant differences between playing at red chip and green chip level. Not just the increased chance of getting more heat, but do ploppies at green chip level act signficiantly differently?

Another thing is that I went to downtown Vegas on my last trip and although the games seemed great, I felt like I stuck out too much and was constantly worried about getting mugged. (BTW I walked in to the El Cortez the tables were deserted) At the green chip level is it even worth playing in downtown Vegas, or are you just better off playing at the strip?

If you really have the advantage, go for it. Just make sure you and your friend can really count and beat computer game first, then pass the test drive in real casino environment and know the distractions won't affect you. I mean you can count even you are forced to have short conversation with pit boss and people in your table.

 

[ycming]

I think i have no problem with someone taking a loan out and playing blackjack. I mean if he minimise his lifetime ROR to less than 5%, then why not ?

We all play the numbers, with 95% chances of not wiping out, then i would definitely go for it. I'll done it!

But please don't go to the casino to "try" things, all the "trying" is done at home, is "doing" in the casino.

May the cards be with you!

Ming

 

[Sucker]

I think i have no problem with someone taking a loan out and playing blackjack. I mean if he minimise his lifetime ROR to less than 5%, then why not ?

The only problem: This is a very big IF. Much easier said than done. Otherwise; I agree wholeheartedly with this statement.

I've had a run of good flux while my friend is taking quite the beating (me being up more than $2000 and him being down about $1500 in 50 hours). This $5000 bankroll is more of a test to see if we're both competent enough to card count at higher bankrolls.

This "test" tells you absolutely NOTHING, other than the fact that you happen to be winning at a rate approximately commensurate with your expectation. MAYBE after five HUNDRED hours it will START to mean something.

I must admit; this planned endeavor of yours is raising some serious red flags in my mind. My advice to you: In the course of your blackjack career you will have UNBELIEVABLE losing streaks, lasting 100 hours and MORE. These streaks will not be isolated, but will be VERY common. I would suggest that you continue red-chipping until you run into one of these streaks, and only THEN decide whether or not you want to proceed all out. Believe me when I tell you, this streak is coming, and it's coming soon!

 

[forwhat77]

Sucker,,sounds like you have been there..I agree with Sonny's signature when it comes to this. Its not the size of your bankroll, its how you leverage what you've got.

OP if it is one thing that I have learned, it is that you must be disciplined in this game..

If I were taking out a loan to play, I would use this money only to invest in myself, not a "friend" as well. Just me personally..

If you are in Vegas, you have a good chance of making it if you know what you are doing. Downtown would be a good place to start out,,and if you are good you can have some longevity. You can also be offered some of the greatest games in Vegas if you are willing to search high and low for them.. And there is more than one place to play down there despite what others may tell you.

As far as taking a loan out, have you reviewed the terms and interest rates of your loan and calculated this into your RoR? Do you know how many hours you need and what hourly EV to expect to make the payment of the loan after you graduate? Is it worth it?
Or can you make more just going to school and working a job, supplementing your income with BJ earnings, independently of course...

 

[xpress88]

I'd like to start off with saying that I appreciate everyone's input into my plan. I appreciate the concern many people have expressed about the possibilities of losing my loan and the harm it can cause to my education. However, I am glad to say that even if I do lose this loan it wouldn't affect my financial ability to pay for school or my lifestyle. If I lost this loan, worst case scenario would be that I would get killed by my parents. (not literally of course)

I also took into account that a long chain of negative flux is possible (my teammate is currently experiencing it right now). I've mainly read Blackbelt in Blackjack which covers some ground of RoR. I figure that with half-kelly betting and one other person to minimize flux, our RoR is pretty low. We would also adjust our bet-sizing according to how much profits/losses would be incurred onto our bankroll.

The main reasons I am eager to move to a green-chip level so quickly is because I live in the Midwest and my teammate lives in west coast, so travel expenses would seem too big compared to a red-chip bankroll. From what I hear from most people, camouflage is the hardest part of being an AP. I feel like I got it covered now since I was playing with a 1-20 spread half the time without getting caught. I also have the extremely handy case of turning really red even after just 1 or 2 beers to exaggerate how drunk I am, (having no effect on my AP abilities) which fools the casino into thinking I'm just a lucky drunk.

I just wanted to further explain the conditions of my plan.

 

[paddywhack]

The only problem: This is a very big IF. Much easier said than done. Otherwise; I agree wholeheartedly with this statement.



This "test" tells you absolutely NOTHING, other than the fact that you happen to be winning at a rate approximately commensurate with your expectation. MAYBE after five HUNDRED hours it will START to mean something.

I must admit; this planned endeavor of yours is raising some serious red flags in my mind. My advice to you: In the course of your blackjack career you will have UNBELIEVABLE losing streaks, lasting 100 hours and MORE. These streaks will not be isolated, but will be VERY common. I would suggest that you continue red-chipping until you run into one of these streaks, and only THEN decide whether or not you want to proceed all out. Believe me when I tell you, this streak is coming, and it's coming soon!

Great advice Sucker.

xpress88,

Take those words to heart. The long losing is a major test of your abilities, both counting and mentally being able to handle it. Early last year I played through a 187 hour losing streak. At the low point I'd lost 63% of my bankroll. I seriously doubted myself for a long time during that stretch. It's very difficult to continually lose, trip after trip. In the end I did recover it and more than tripled the high I'd set before that slide.

Now another long period of stagnation - over 400 hours without a net profit. Just spreading the money around, casino to casino, week in and week out. If I had to pay off a loan on that money I would surely be very concerned. Luckily that is not the case.

We like to think in ev/hr - but that's long term. In the short term anything can and will happen. From winning 50-100 times your ev to losing just as much or more.

Lifetime I'm still at my ev but I can attest that the money is made and lost in large spurts. I know I'm due for a spurt, but when it'll happen, if ever, I don't know.

 

[BJgenius007]

I'd like to start off with saying that I appreciate everyone's input into my plan. I appreciate the concern many people have expressed about the possibilities of losing my loan and the harm it can cause to my education. However, I am glad to say that even if I do lose this loan it wouldn't affect my financial ability to pay for school or my lifestyle. If I lost this loan, worst case scenario would be that I would get killed by my parents. (not literally of course)

I also took into account that a long chain of negative flux is possible (my teammate is currently experiencing it right now). I've mainly read Blackbelt in Blackjack which covers some ground of RoR. I figure that with half-kelly betting and one other person to minimize flux, our RoR is pretty low. We would also adjust our bet-sizing according to how much profits/losses would be incurred onto our bankroll.

The main reasons I am eager to move to a green-chip level so quickly is because I live in the Midwest and my teammate lives in west coast, so travel expenses would seem too big compared to a red-chip bankroll. From what I hear from most people, camouflage is the hardest part of being an AP. I feel like I got it covered now since I was playing with a 1-20 spread half the time without getting caught. I also have the extremely handy case of turning really red even after just 1 or 2 beers to exaggerate how drunk I am, (having no effect on my AP abilities) which fools the casino into thinking I'm just a lucky drunk.

I just wanted to further explain the conditions of my plan.

I concur. The majority don't pay off their student loans. I forgot the actual number. It is like 49% or so of the borrowers that paid back their student loans. The federal government just wrote those off.

 

[Shoofly]

Borrowing Money

Two things. Borrow money only for a house or a car (old car at first). Save and build for everything else.
I play 6 deck red chip and 2 deck green. Ploppies are exactly the same.

 

[zengrifter]

I concur. The majority don't pay off their student loans. I forgot the actual number. It is like 49% or so of the borrowers that paid back their student loans. The federal government just wrote those off.

All the more reason to take the loan! zg

 

[zengrifter]

Two things. Borrow money only for a house or a car (old car at first). Save and build for everything else.
I play 6 deck red chip and 2 deck green. Ploppies are exactly the same.

Are your max bets the same for both? zg

 

[zengrifter]

In game your gambling. So, know your limitations.

Hey welcome link juice spammer! zg