Someone please De-Bunk this system before I take out a second mortgage

[LeonShuffle]

Grifter, have you actually read any of my posts on this message board? I'm a counter. Pretty much always have been. I've spent hundreds upon hundreds of hours practicing with acutual cards and with CVBJ. I've also spent hundreds of hours playing in casinos. I live an hour from Atlantic City and am there quite frequently. I'm up for my "career". I'm anti-progression.

In this particular thread, I was trying to explain to NYBear why his "reverse Martingale" wouldn't work. I usually stay out of the progression threads because there's no point trying to convince someone but I just thought, in this instance, I would try to set NYBear straight.

I know who you are. I know you've been in the business for a long time. I also know there are many posters on these boards who don't know what they're talking about. I just don't assume that NONE of them do.

 

[newyorkbear]

Leon,
While I appreciate your efforts,rest assured I don't need rescuing from this.I stopped being a believer in any sort of martingale many years ago.
Oscars Grind,on the other hand,is a whole 'nother story.

 

[zengrifter]

Grifter, have you actually read any of my posts on this message board? I'm a counter.

I'm sorry, this whole thread had become a blur! I confused you with the AsparChief! zg

 

[zengrifter]

Oscars Grind,on the other hand,is a whole 'nother story.

Really? Do tell. zg:laugh:

 

[E-town-guy]

Its funny how in just a few days we can fill seven pages of the message board with useless dribble but when talking about something relevant to counting it can be like pulling teeth to get a response!

 

[Canceler]

Its funny how in just a few days we can fill seven pages of the message board with useless dribble but when talking about something relevant to counting it can be like pulling teeth to get a response!

I don't know about that, but I do think zg and aussiecounter should stay out of this Betting Stategies section. Would hate to see them have coronaries; then we lose two good posters!

 

[aussiecounter]

I don't know about that, but I do think zg and aussiecounter should stay out of this Betting Stategies section. Would hate to see them have coronaries; then we lose two good posters!

No danger of a coronary here; I'm only a young pup, and I look after myself. How bout you zg?

 

[zengrifter]

No danger of a coronary here; I'm only a young pup, and I look after myself. How bout you zg?

AHRRRRRRRRGHHHHH mmm oooo I think that dealer tips should be propigated with negative progression bets! zg

 

[aussiecounter]

Thats a misnomer - counters do not "need luck" to win. Better hit the probabilty books again, old-timer. Honestly, do you even know correct basic strategy? No really? zg

Ease up on the newbie oldtimer zg.
We all know that counting gives you only a very small advantage over time, and if you have a bad run of luck one night you will lose money, probably more than a flat bettor/BS player.

Not even zg could pull a profit if the dealer draws pat hands all night.

 

[zengrifter]

I just go by what the sims show. zg

 

[matteotm]

Interesting reading.. yet i cant help wondering where the last half an hour of my life went LOL

I found this thread very amusing but it begs the question why people are so intent on pushing there random systems on others. who knows. I love the newbie posters who come out with all guns blazing though. I wouldnt get worked up about it . Because I just repeat the same mantra in my head as i do when im playing at the table. just look at them and think "THEY WILL LOSE MORE THAN YOU IN THE LONG RUN, DONT SAY ANYTHING THE SOONER THEY KEEP MAKING BS ERRORS ETC THE SOONER THEY WILL RUN OUT OF MONEY AND BE GONE" and it always works...... i just cant stand those friday and saturday night crowds who who wouldnt know Blackjack from Pontoon with the "do anything attitude" and keep winning.... it really gets under my skin..... Blackjack is a skill game and shouldnt be played like a slot machine. On occasion I have given people who clearly didnt know what they were doing advice and i think all times from memory the person has made steady profits but Id only bother if they seemed willing to take the advice, but really nowadays i wouldnt care if i saw someone lose their life savings in front of me making errors. as they as "a fool and his money"

Cheers
also AUSSIE COUNTER ....do u want me to send you "BREAKING VEGAS" DVD. i have some extra copies on hand ! let me know if you havent seen it, good viewing

PS. aussie do u like my new avatar lol? being a sydney boy you should recoginse that chip in the photo ! LOL

 

[AsparaChief]

Btw

One quick question before I post my next rant (if no one has numbers your opinion would be fine):

How many hands/hour does the average player in Vegas play?

P.S. I'm flying to vegas on Thurs, Feb. 9, wish me luck (ha)

 

[aussiecounter]

I'm not sure, but I think it can be anywhere between 50-100, depending on the game and the dealer and players. i.e. single deck with 4-5 players will play less hands than a CSM with 2 people playing.

Good luck.

 

[AsparaChief]

Maybe this is actually two debates?

Also, I appreciate everyone who has taken the time to discuss this issue. I suspect most of the debate stems from the difference between players that are trying to extract money from the game and players that are trying to find entertainment.

Laugh if you want, but if I play for 10 hours in Vegas and end up $5 up or $5 down the result is the same: disappointment. Looking at a series of, say, 100 hands, your EV ought to be the same with any betting scheme, right? (I'm really asking...) If that is the case, I think I'd opt for a strategy that increases the variability of outcomes (the Std. deviation) rather than chase a 1% advantage, because I wont play enough hands for that percentage to emerge.

Let me know what you think, the Chief

 

[aussiecounter]

matteotm, I'm not sure if I've seen it or not.

Re the avatar: Nice pic. I think they are pretty well the same most places though. And no, I've never bet one, and probably never will at Star City. I have had some there though.
I'm going to Japan tonight, I'll swing you a line when I get back.

 

[Bigdiggie]

Oh this seems alllll too familiar.... trust me kid, it doesn't work. I used a negative progression once in my ignorant days online, starting at $1.00. I won $1200 bucks on Vegas Red using that progression. Called my friends, told them we'd be going to Disney World soon, on me. Next day I lost it all! Twelve reds in a row on a european roullette table (about a 4% house edge... the same as a BJ game with crappy rules)... I was betting black. Take it from my experience buddy, it'll get you every time.

The only rationale I can think of for using a negative progression is if you happen to walk by a roullette table on it's 15th red... then I could see betting 4 or 5 units on black, because those odds are STAGGERING, but other than that, save your money and learn to count.

 

[Cass]

After 15 reds on roulette the odds of you landing black are the same as they were before that. Each spin is a independent event.

 

[AsparaChief]

While I completely agree that betting systems do not improve your EV, I cant understand why no one can bear to admit that they do not hurt your EV either. Blackjack hands are completely independant of each other just as the hands are completely independant of the bet. EV is calculated with cards, not bets. If your problem with progressions is that it increases your Risk of Ruin, fair enough, but again, RoR is completely independant of EV.

Please read this before you reply: http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems.html

*It should be noted that I started this thread thinking that progressions would win money. I've been convinced that they dont, or alternately, that they work exactly as good as anything else (i.e. -.5% w/o counting). Also, I'm the ultimate badass because my thread has 78 replies. (Probable next post: "78 posts means you're a jackass, and everyone wants to tell you")- OK, fair enough, but I'm still proud.

 

[noshoes]

*It should be noted that I started this thread thinking that progressions would win money. I've been convinced that they dont...

don't worry about it, it happens to the best of us. I went through a similar thing as well...
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=1239
And in the end I concluded the same thing as you. It just comes down to, how much risk are you comfortable with? Remember that God Box question?
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=1299
This situation came to me as a result of spending a week convinced that I could create the end-all, beat-all bet system or I could create the end-all, beat-all card counting system. My wife helped me put into perspective with one of her responses...


OK I have to say many people have been talking about what happens when the box is opened. Remember one of the stipulations is that the box can not be opened. But one can argue that both people can not know this which begs the question what are the possibilities if the box could be opened?
It seems like anyhting else- once one learns what is in the box it can not be unlearned. Therefore the box is ultimately a Pandora’s box. In which case
you better be damned sure that you are not worse off after the box is opened. In this case it isn’t really a matter of who is smarter being that it depends on what is in the box (Pandora was only dumb because evil was in the box- if something good were in the box then she’d be a genious).
The box is more a matter of what you are willing to risk. Person A is willing to risk his life, health, happiness etc. to find out what is in the box. This may turn out good for him (the people who are the top of any field are risk takers) or it could ultimately destroy everything he has (people at the “bottom” of society are risk takers too).
But person B is more cautious. He’ll never be at the top of anything, but he’s never going to destroy his life either. He has a better chance of happiness than person A (please don’t try to argue that success equals happiness because it does not), but he is never going to be anything great either.
So the question, then, is really for person A. If you ask person A, “Is knowing worth destruction?” and their answer is yes, then more power to them. However, if the answer is no then he better be the luckiest person in the world.



If you believe you are a badass for causing the most controversy then feel good that you can turn something negative into something positive. You can take that feeling and turn it into a renewed zeal for kicking the casino's ass. Hat's off to Ken Smith (tipping the dealer) for not completely abandoning this betting system forum. It has proved to be very useful for a lot of people, though not in the way that most people think.

(steps off soapbox)

 

[E-town-guy]

While I completely agree that betting systems do not improve your EV, I cant understand why no one can bear to admit that they do not hurt your EV either. Blackjack hands are completely independant of each other just as the hands are completely independant of the bet. EV is calculated with cards, not bets. If your problem with progressions is that it increases your Risk of Ruin, fair enough, but again, RoR is completely independant of EV.

If I was a basic strategy player and bet $5 every hand my EV would be some number like -$5/hr. If I was betting $20/hand wouldn't that decrease my EV even further, -$20/hr? If this is true then this is why a progression hurts your EV. If this is not true then I must not understand EV completely.