Successful Non-Counters

[sagefr0g]

...... But a sage frog wouldn't engage in such an experiment

trust me i wont go there. especially with you (meant as a compliment).
i have a great level of uncertainty and a small portion of certainty.
suffice it to say observation is a deep subject. :devil:

 

[bj bob]

Half the distance

Technically, I’m not convinced either. From my understanding, the long run is just like that frog trying to get to the wall. He gets closer and closer, but never actually gets there. But at some point he will be so close that he is “close enough” to the wall that it doesn't matter. The long run in blackjack may never be precisely reached, but there are various confidence levels that can. It all depends on how close you need to get to feel comfortable. Would a 90% chance be “close enough?” How about 95%? Maybe 99.8%? You’ll never get to 100%, but most people can reach a level that they are happy with. You may reach your long-term EV much sooner than you expect, or it may never come (maybe you average $24.99/hr instead of $25) but you can at least give yourself a fighting chance.

-Sonny-

This reminds me of the football analogy. If a team starts its drive at the 10 yd. line and gets penalized for holding (10 yds.) the refs. apply the "half the distance to the goal" rule and spot the ball on the 5. If they incur another penalty the ball is spotted at the 2 1/2 and so on. The offending team is never nailed with a 2 pt. safety on the scoreboard, however, when 4th down does come they are still in reality backed up against their own goal.

 

[shadroch]

This reminds me of the football analogy. If a team starts its drive at the 10 yd. line and gets penalized for holding (10 yds.) the refs. apply the "half the distance to the goal" rule and spot the ball on the 5. If they incur another penalty the ball is spotted at the 2 1/2 and so on. The offending team is never nailed with a 2 pt. safety on the scoreboard, however, when 4th down does come they are still in reality backed up against their own goal.

But if they get a penalty on every play,it will always be first down.

 

[bj bob]

But if they get a penalty on every play,it will always be first down.

At first, yes. However, if the QB throws several passes from the pocket to no one and gets called for intentional grounding, there is an automatic loss of down, which will ultimatley result in 4th down. Same with 3 incompletions in a row.

 

[ChefJJ]

At first, yes. However, if the QB throws several passes from the pocket to no one and gets called for intentional grounding, there is an automatic loss of down, which will ultimatley result in 4th down. Same with 3 incompletions in a row.

I'll add on to this derailed thread:

If the QB grounds the ball while in the end zone, or if an offensive player holds in the end zone...there is a safety (which I guess is the equivalent of blowing your stake at the table in the short run). :whip:

Had to connect it to BJ somehow

good luck

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Technically, I’m not convinced either. From my understanding, the long run is just like that frog trying to get to the wall. He gets closer and closer, but never actually gets there. But at some point he will be so close that he is “close enough” to the wall that it doesn't matter. The long run in blackjack may never be precisely reached, but there are various confidence levels that can. It all depends on how close you need to get to feel comfortable. Would a 90% chance be “close enough?” How about 95%? Maybe 99.8%? You’ll never get to 100%, but most people can reach a level that they are happy with. You may reach your long-term EV much sooner than you expect, or it may never come (maybe you average $24.99/hr instead of $25) but you can at least give yourself a fighting chance.

-Sonny-

Apply an analogy of throwing dice. Throw one die, and the numbers from 1 to 6 are random. Throw two, and the number on each die is still random, but the most common sum is 7. Throw 4, and 14 is the most common sum, Throw a billion dice, and your sum will be very, very close to 350,000,000- but the fluctuations between 349,999,997 and 350,000,003 will be completely random because you can't get any less randomness than the randomness of a single die.

 

[bj bob]

I'll add on to this derailed thread:

If the QB grounds the ball while in the end zone, or if an offensive player holds in the end zone...there is a safety (which I guess is the equivalent of blowing your stake at the table in the short run). :whip:

Had to connect it to BJ somehow

good luck

Good catch (no pun!) JJ. I missed that little rule variation, however, the 3 incs. still leave the ball at the virtual goal with 4th down. And yes, this thread has been officially deralied. Too bad too... Frog was really enjoying all that face time!:laugh:

 

[positiveEV]

Apply an analogy of throwing dice. Throw one die, and the numbers from 1 to 6 are random. Throw two, and the number on each die is still random, but the most common sum is 7. Throw 4, and 14 is the most common sum, Throw a billion dice, and your sum will be very, very close to 350,000,000- but the fluctuations between 349,999,997 and 350,000,003 will be completely random because you can't get any less randomness than the randomness of a single die.

I think you meant 3,500,000,000 since it's impossible to get less than 1 billion if you throw a billion dices.