The perfect shoe
- Thread starter kewljason
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kewljason said:
I know that second question isn't suggesting that I would have done anything illegal. 
:angel: Keep in mind, that I live very close to many of the games I play, so at times I do not cash out or only partially cash out, not because I am attempting to do something illegal like structuring, but rather because I wish to avoid carry a large amount of cash and want to have chips readily available for my next session, saving time at buyin.
:angel: Keep in mind, that I live very close to many of the games I play, so at times I do not cash out or only partially cash out, not because I am attempting to do something illegal like structuring, but rather because I wish to avoid carry a large amount of cash and want to have chips readily available for my next session, saving time at buyin.
kewljason said:
I have let a few days pass before posting about this event for obvious reasons. I actually have debated whether I should post about it at all, as I know doing so has absolutely no positive value for me and could have negative consequences, however to be honest, I am just bursting to share this event. I have shared it with a few non blackjack playing friends and while I know they are extremely happy for me, they fail to really appreciate the enormity of the event. So I post, minus names, places and time details.
It was the second shoe of the day for me. A 6-deck game with really decent penetration. The first shoe, also at this table was uneventful as the count hovered around zero. Didn't go low enough to exit, didn't go high enough to raise my bet. Myself and one other player both playing a single spot were joined in the second round by another player wagering 2 hands. The small cards began to come out. The count grew. I began to increase my wagers up my betting ramp. Lost some hands, won some hands. With all the small cards appearing, I was actually holding my own. The count reaches my max wager point. About this time the player wagering 2 hands, and losing most, exits. Thanks! Small cards are still coming out. But, I am placing my max bet and winning. One hand I drew a 5 card 20. A couple other hands, my 4 card hand beat the dealers 4 card hand. The gent I had played the previous shoe with has had enough and exits, leaving only myself. The true count hits double digits. I decide to increase my max bet by 50%, which I know sounds kind of oxymoron-ish. My max bet is actually determined by a betting level that I wish to stay under, to avoid heat, rather than by bankroll limitations, as my bankroll can actually support a bigger max bet, so this is actually a move I have built into my plan for certain extreme situation and this most definitely qualifies. Probably most of you would have increased even more, but I stick to my game plan. Anyway, by the end of the shoe I have played at least 30, maybe 35 hands at max bets, with 20-25 of them being this 'super max bet'. I pushed two hands of 20, one which seemed like a win, (more on that in a minute) and had one split that ended up as a push with one win, one loss. Won every other hands, including a number of doubledowns. Ironically, No blackjacks. By the time the dust had settled I had won 870 units or the equivalent of 54 of my original max bets. This is an astonishing amount to me. More than 1/4 of my total income for each of the last 2 years. (not combined) More than I made total in my first 2 years of play of fulltime play. I don't see how I will ever come close to this feat again. I may someday play at a higher level with much greater max bets, than I do now, which could allow me to make more than this on a single very good shoe, but I don't believe I will ever play 30 some hands at max bet and not lose a single hand.
Now, how can a push with max bet seem like a win? Let me tell you. I had a 10 vs dealer 10 and with a double digit TC the play was to double. By this time a gentleman from the pit had taken a mild interest in the game and I decided not to push the envelope by doubling as called for. I hit, drew a 2, hit a second time and drew an 8 to push the dealers 20. Had I doubled, I have a 12 and lose my double. The push seemed like a win to me.
One final though: Some of you may remember earlier this year, I spoke of another 'monster shoe' in which I won about half of the amount won here. At that time, that was my largest win in a session, and I was unable to compose myself and get my emotions together enough to continue play that day. I vowed to do better in the future. Well, I didn't. :sad: My adrenaline was pumping and my heart pounding, and again, I thought it best just to call it a day. Maybe if the blackjack gods, work with me and give me a few more of these opportunities, I will finally get the hang of it.
The other kind of embarrassing thing is that despite everything I have learned and know to be true, I still had some ploppy thoughts creep into my mind about how I am probably due to give some back now. Shows I still have a lot to work on.
It was the second shoe of the day for me. A 6-deck game with really decent penetration. The first shoe, also at this table was uneventful as the count hovered around zero. Didn't go low enough to exit, didn't go high enough to raise my bet. Myself and one other player both playing a single spot were joined in the second round by another player wagering 2 hands. The small cards began to come out. The count grew. I began to increase my wagers up my betting ramp. Lost some hands, won some hands. With all the small cards appearing, I was actually holding my own. The count reaches my max wager point. About this time the player wagering 2 hands, and losing most, exits. Thanks!
Small cards are still coming out. But, I am placing my max bet and winning. One hand I drew a 5 card 20. A couple other hands, my 4 card hand beat the dealers 4 card hand. The gent I had played the previous shoe with has had enough and exits, leaving only myself. The true count hits double digits. I decide to increase my max bet by 50%, which I know sounds kind of oxymoron-ish. My max bet is actually determined by a betting level that I wish to stay under, to avoid heat, rather than by bankroll limitations, as my bankroll can actually support a bigger max bet, so this is actually a move I have built into my plan for certain extreme situation and this most definitely qualifies. Probably most of you would have increased even more, but I stick to my game plan. Anyway, by the end of the shoe I have played at least 30, maybe 35 hands at max bets, with 20-25 of them being this 'super max bet'. I pushed two hands of 20, one which seemed like a win, (more on that in a minute) and had one split that ended up as a push with one win, one loss. Won every other hands, including a number of doubledowns. Ironically, No blackjacks. By the time the dust had settled I had won 870 units or the equivalent of 54 of my original max bets. This is an astonishing amount to me. More than 1/4 of my total income for each of the last 2 years. (not combined) More than I made total in my first 2 years of play of fulltime play. I don't see how I will ever come close to this feat again. I may someday play at a higher level with much greater max bets, than I do now, which could allow me to make more than this on a single very good shoe, but I don't believe I will ever play 30 some hands at max bet and not lose a single hand. Now, how can a push with max bet seem like a win? Let me tell you. I had a 10 vs dealer 10 and with a double digit TC the play was to double. By this time a gentleman from the pit had taken a mild interest in the game and I decided not to push the envelope by doubling as called for. I hit, drew a 2, hit a second time and drew an 8 to push the dealers 20. Had I doubled, I have a 12 and lose my double. The push seemed like a win to me.
One final though: Some of you may remember earlier this year, I spoke of another 'monster shoe' in which I won about half of the amount won here. At that time, that was my largest win in a session, and I was unable to compose myself and get my emotions together enough to continue play that day. I vowed to do better in the future. Well, I didn't. :sad: My adrenaline was pumping and my heart pounding, and again, I thought it best just to call it a day. Maybe if the blackjack gods, work with me and give me a few more of these opportunities, I will finally get the hang of it.
The other kind of embarrassing thing is that despite everything I have learned and know to be true, I still had some ploppy thoughts creep into my mind about how I am probably due to give some back now. Shows I still have a lot to work on.
You say you move to a super max bet in extreme situations, as your regular max bet is set more for heat consideration and not bankroll limitation. With that being said, what are the factors that you are basing this extreme situation on? Was there any less heat on this day? Was the TC being double digits a factor? Was the streak you were on a reason to increase bets? If your fortune this day was reversed and you were losing most of your hands in this monster count, would you still have been using your super max bet? In the same vein of questions, if you had lost 870 units this shoe instead of won, would you have continued playing on that day? If this mighty win's excitement could halt your play this day, could a mighty loss of equal size cause that as well?
I find your post interesting on many levels. But I am still happy for your great win.
Thanx Mr Bo, CP, gamblinghost and everyone for your well wishes. Congrats aren't necessary. Wasn't the reason of the post. But appreciated. I really just wanted to share this experience with some people (BJ players) who could appreciate the oddity of this event in it's entirety. Everything from not only winning almost every hand at max bet but even to my counterparts playing early in the shoe, helping to eat small cards and then bowing out at just the right time (for me...) So again, a big thanx to them as well. :laugh:
Fair questions, Mr Bo. I knew someone would have questions about going above and beyound a predetermined max bet. I have no hard and fast rule about doing so, and have only done so once before. For starters the count has to be super high. I hit my max bet at a TC of +4, so if the count gets up to +7 or +8, which is pretty rare for a shoe game, it's a consideration. The second consideration is actual funds on hand. Because most of my play takes place right here within a few miles of my home, I don't carry a huge amount of funds with me. Certainly no where near the number of units one would have if taking a trip of 7, 5 or even 3 days to play BJ. In the event of a bad session, I can get more funds pretty easily and quickly, so I can carry a greatly reduced amount of money on me. That's good as it reduces risk as far as how much I would lose if getting robbed, but bad in the fact that in the event that I have a shoe that goes extremely positive early on and play a large number of hands at max bet and lose most, I am cutting it close. If I am losing most hands , it is even possible I could run out of funds before the shoe ends, which is something you really don't want to do. Don't want to waste such a rare opportunity. Because of these factors, the second factor involved in bumping up my max bet is that I know I have enough funds to complete the extremely beneficial shoe. So yes winning some hands at the regular max bet kind of assures that. If I wasn't winning and was near the end of the shoe and could see I only had a couple hands remaining and clearly had enough funds, then I would still bump up even though I had been losing, so yes the streak itself plays a part as it assures I have enough funds to increase to this rare super max bet and still finish the shoe regardless of results.
Your question of would I have continued to play that day after suffering such an extreme loss (870 units) is unanswerable. That can not occur as I don't carry 800 units on me to lose in a single session. But if I lost my session BR which is roughly half that, there is a good chance I would quit for the day to gather myself. I am not on a trip, where if I stop play I am wasting time. I live where I play most, so I can play anytime I want. I have never lost the entire session amount that I take out with me though. I have had bad sessions where I have lost enough, that I needed to go get some more funds to add to what I had remaining to ensure I had enough funds to play addition sessions, but have never lost everything I brought out with me. (yet)
I have said before, controlling emotions is by far the most difficult part of this game, at least for me. Big swings either way, win or loss, tests that. Such swings in a very short time, like a matter of minutes test it even more. Obviously I have yet to conquer that.:sad:
) So again, a big thanx to them as well. :laugh:Fair questions, Mr Bo. I knew someone would have questions about going above and beyound a predetermined max bet. I have no hard and fast rule about doing so, and have only done so once before. For starters the count has to be super high. I hit my max bet at a TC of +4, so if the count gets up to +7 or +8, which is pretty rare for a shoe game, it's a consideration. The second consideration is actual funds on hand. Because most of my play takes place right here within a few miles of my home, I don't carry a huge amount of funds with me. Certainly no where near the number of units one would have if taking a trip of 7, 5 or even 3 days to play BJ. In the event of a bad session, I can get more funds pretty easily and quickly, so I can carry a greatly reduced amount of money on me. That's good as it reduces risk as far as how much I would lose if getting robbed, but bad in the fact that in the event that I have a shoe that goes extremely positive early on and play a large number of hands at max bet and lose most, I am cutting it close. If I am losing most hands , it is even possible I could run out of funds before the shoe ends, which is something you really don't want to do. Don't want to waste such a rare opportunity. Because of these factors, the second factor involved in bumping up my max bet is that I know I have enough funds to complete the extremely beneficial shoe. So yes winning some hands at the regular max bet kind of assures that. If I wasn't winning and was near the end of the shoe and could see I only had a couple hands remaining and clearly had enough funds, then I would still bump up even though I had been losing, so yes the streak itself plays a part as it assures I have enough funds to increase to this rare super max bet and still finish the shoe regardless of results.
Your question of would I have continued to play that day after suffering such an extreme loss (870 units) is unanswerable. That can not occur as I don't carry 800 units on me to lose in a single session. But if I lost my session BR which is roughly half that, there is a good chance I would quit for the day to gather myself. I am not on a trip, where if I stop play I am wasting time. I live where I play most, so I can play anytime I want. I have never lost the entire session amount that I take out with me though.
I have had bad sessions where I have lost enough, that I needed to go get some more funds to add to what I had remaining to ensure I had enough funds to play addition sessions, but have never lost everything I brought out with me. (yet) I have said before, controlling emotions is by far the most difficult part of this game, at least for me. Big swings either way, win or loss, tests that. Such swings in a very short time, like a matter of minutes test it even more. Obviously I have yet to conquer that.
:sad:
Was thinking the exact same thing. :laugh:And actually, since even the difference of a single card completely randomizes the outcomes when compared to a prior sequence, the results in all likelihood would have been far more mundane if any single decision had been different, particularly early in the shoe.
Of course, we must remind ourselves that this observation has absolutely no bearing on play whatsoever, since a winning sequence only exists in hindsight. And that's probably a good thing, because otherwise I might find myself experiencing a bad flare-up of OCD.
:grin:After re-reading my answer to your question, Mr Bo, I realize I need to clarify something. I don't go above and beyond my Max bet very often and I don't want to give the impression that just because the count is high and I have the funds that I do so. I still rarely do so. I have set my max bet at a certain level for a reason. That reason is playing longevity. I don't know how long I am going to be doing this or how long I even want to do this. But for now, I plan to do so for at least a few years. For me that means a game plan taylored to be able to be able to continue to play in this town. Keeping my max bet below a certain threshold is a vital part of that plan.
One of the reasons, I did so this time was that I kind of figured the damage had been done. A slow, not crowded time in the casino surely meant I had been noticed with such a fortunate session. That coupled with the fact that I basically flat bet a shoe prior when the count was neutral, really kind of exposed me, and on film. :sad: (yes I know they don't use film...:laugh
One of the reasons, I did so this time was that I kind of figured the damage had been done. A slow, not crowded time in the casino surely meant I had been noticed with such a fortunate session. That coupled with the fact that I basically flat bet a shoe prior when the count was neutral, really kind of exposed me, and on film. :sad: (yes I know they don't use film...:laugh
Win Less, Lose More
Kewl
Do you have your bets and ror set for a max at tc4 and the rare tc8 bets that you make are overbetting your ror?
or
Do you have an optimal bet ramp and since one rarely sees tc8 you rarely get to bet it.
There is a difference. Also, selectively betting tc8 does hurt your NO, consistency of play is important for long run.
One could adjust their bets to bet more when losing and bet less when winning, course this would damage NO. As an example, those really big wins draw extra attention, so when winning big cut bets by 25% to avoid the super hot shoe. Conversly, steaming and chasing losses is basic camo so when losing big increase bets by 25% since you are a confirmed loser. Most of your play will be the proper bets. These would be camo moves and have nothing to do with being due to win or lose the next hands. Also, would need a bigger trip bank and bigger overall bank to have the same risks.
Oh, I got you beat. I dropped far more in a session
and
I hate you:devil:
Kewl
Do you have your bets and ror set for a max at tc4 and the rare tc8 bets that you make are overbetting your ror?
or
Do you have an optimal bet ramp and since one rarely sees tc8 you rarely get to bet it.
There is a difference. Also, selectively betting tc8 does hurt your NO, consistency of play is important for long run.
One could adjust their bets to bet more when losing and bet less when winning, course this would damage NO. As an example, those really big wins draw extra attention, so when winning big cut bets by 25% to avoid the super hot shoe. Conversly, steaming and chasing losses is basic camo so when losing big increase bets by 25% since you are a confirmed loser. Most of your play will be the proper bets. These would be camo moves and have nothing to do with being due to win or lose the next hands. Also, would need a bigger trip bank and bigger overall bank to have the same risks.
Oh, I got you beat. I dropped far more in a session
and
I hate you:devil:
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because I have capped my wager at a certain level I am not close to betting optimally. My BR could support much more. Therefore on those ever so rare occasions that I bump up, I am still not even close to overbetting. My conservative natural and un-replenishable situation would never allow for such.
As for the destiction of having me beat by dropping far more in a session, you are welcome to it. I won't even try to catch you.
As for hate: In the words of our friend, CP...hate is evil.
As for the destiction of having me beat by dropping far more in a session, you are welcome to it.
I won't even try to catch you. As for hate: In the words of our friend, CP...hate is evil.
Short answer. No.
I don't sim individual games which have different rules, penetration, players, speed. You could spend more time simming than playing. :laugh: I use a very generic model sim for the 6 deck games and a second very generic sim for DD games that I play most. Both based on very average penetration. Then I go out and try to play better games than simmed, especially penetration-wise. This means my results (long-term) should be a little better than the sims.
Sims aside, I am not a math geek. But I have to assume that just playing 30 some hands in a row, with out experiencing a loss (counting split hand, win, loss as tie) is astronomical in itself. I don't know. Math guys?
I really don't like to focus on the odds of something happening. If it happens, it happens, the fact that it's rare doesn't change it. If you get hit and killed by a lightning strike, does it make you any less dead to know that is a very rare occurance?
I don't sim individual games which have different rules, penetration, players, speed. You could spend more time simming than playing. :laugh: I use a very generic model sim for the 6 deck games and a second very generic sim for DD games that I play most. Both based on very average penetration. Then I go out and try to play better games than simmed, especially penetration-wise. This means my results (long-term) should be a little better than the sims.
Sims aside, I am not a math geek. But I have to assume that just playing 30 some hands in a row, with out experiencing a loss (counting split hand, win, loss as tie) is astronomical in itself. I don't know. Math guys?
I really don't like to focus on the odds of something happening. If it happens, it happens, the fact that it's rare doesn't change it. If you get hit and killed by a lightning strike, does it make you any less dead to know that is a very rare occurance?
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Pelerus said:
Was thinking the exact same thing. :laugh:
And actually, since even the difference of a single card completely randomizes the outcomes when compared to a prior sequence, the results in all likelihood would have been far more mundane if any single decision had been different, particularly early in the shoe.
Of course, we must remind ourselves that this observation has absolutely no bearing on play whatsoever, since a winning sequence only exists in hindsight. And that's probably a good thing, because otherwise I might find myself experiencing a bad flare-up of OCD.
:grin:
"Sims aside, I am not a math geek. But I have to assume that just playing 30 some hands in a row, with out experiencing a loss (counting split hand, win, loss as tie) is astronomical in itself. I don't know. Math guys? "
CV Data suggests a 20+ win streak occurs approx 6.9 million to 1 - If I have read this right. Don't believe you will have a similar win streak anytime soon
CV Data suggests a 20+ win streak occurs approx 6.9 million to 1 - If I have read this right. Don't believe you will have a similar win streak anytime soon
Freightman said:
"Sims aside, I am not a math geek. But I have to assume that just playing 30 some hands in a row, with out experiencing a loss (counting split hand, win, loss as tie) is astronomical in itself. I don't know. Math guys? "
CV Data suggests a 20+ win streak occurs approx 6.9 million to 1 - If I have read this right. Don't believe you will have a similar win streak anytime soon
CV Data suggests a 20+ win streak occurs approx 6.9 million to 1 - If I have read this right. Don't believe you will have a similar win streak anytime soon
I am just kidding. I said in my original post that I don't think I will ever experience anything close to this again, no matter how long I play. maybe I am wrong though.