Weekend Warriors II

[sagefr0g]

I was just about to reprimand you, but i guess i'll give you a patch this time.

Was you playing those AC 8deckers? Those are tough to beat. Were you Wongin? What were the rules/pen? Just curious,lol.

Lol, I know your smart enough, not to play Video poker. You must do it, because:

a)its only a quarter, and you can afford it.
b) has a 100% payback.
c) you simply enjoy it.

If a,b, and/or c, isnt on your list, then no you shouldnt play it.

Oh ya, congrats/cheers/hats-off on your warrior trip.

i'm just glad he was able to stop "flippen coins" for a bit and have some fun.
and didn't lose his a$$ off. snatched up a few benjamins. :laugh:

 

[k_c]

(Dead link: http://www.bjstrat.net/WW2.html) _My latest WWII update_

1) Changed TKO bet spread to start ramping at TC >= - 3 with 5 units (max bet) at TC >= 0. This pretty much parallels HiLo.

2) My average pre-deal EV has been dropping like a stone. After 545 shoes/7102 rounds it stands at -.6543%. I got to wondering how volatile that figure is so I used Excel's STDEV function for that and some other parameters.

Average one unit flat bet +/- =+.0024 units per round, standard deviation = 1.10 units
Average pre-deal EV = -.6543%, standard deviation = 1.77%

Does this mean that about 68.3% of the time we can expect the average pre-deal EV to be between (-.6543% - 1.77%) and (-.6543% + 1.77%)? If so doesn't this mean that this parameter can't be measured with a very good degree of accuracy?

Here are the other parameters:

Average HiLo bet = 1.75 units, standard deviation = 1.32 units
Average HiLo +/- = +.044 units per round, standard deviation = 2.36
Average HiLo RC = -.31, standard deviation = 3.80
Average HiLo TC = -.25, standard deviation = 3.51

Average UKO bet = 1.76 units, standard deviation = 1.39 units
Average UKO +/- = +.046 units per round, standard deviation = 2.41 units
Average UKO RC = -1.83, standard deviation = 4.24

Average TKO bet = 1.78 units, standard deviation = 1.36 units
Average TKO +/- = +.052 units per round, standard deviation = 2.40
Average TKO RC = -5.83, standard deviation = 4.24
Average TKO TC = -4.30, standard deviation = 3.65

 

[jack.jackson]

No, I was playing the 6 deckers. They do not allow wonging in on many of the $25 tables, but occasionally you can find a place to backcount. What I do is find a table where the pen is within reach, 70% or better, and play all until the pen goes down the tubes, or if I'm winning, until the cards start going downhill. In other words, I like to lock in my winnings. I have noticed that on any given table the winning and losing seems to go back and forth, with one time in a hundred going north or south continuously. I find if I play a table long enough, I generally give back a good deal of my winnings due to this ebb and flow. And when I am already winning good, I'm not as concerned about finding that one in a hundred winning streak as I am in just keeping what I've got. So I take a break and move to another table. One big thing in my play now is to keep my mind as fresh as possible, which means plenty of sleep and rest between tables if I feel a little tired. When I occasionally lose count, that's my sign that I need to pull up and get some rest. Also, I won't allow myself to play if I get that "whining" feeling, which I view as a losing feeling (Oh, woe is me! Everything happens to me! lol). I don't think anyone can be on the top of his game with such negativity bouncing around in his head.

I know that some of the above sounds like voodoo. It is true that you could change tables constantly and start out loser on every table. But it seems more grating on my nerves and attitude to stay at a losing table, digging in my heels as my bankroll dwindles away. With the change tables routine with rest in between as needed, I have the ability to keep my attitude positive and consequently to stay on top of my game. I also avoid negative dealers and players like a plague. Positive, Positive. Positive. That's my mantra.

I agree with your VP assessment, although you have to be careful about the 100% payback idea--many machines have payoffs that actually reduce to payback to 95% or even 90%. The bad is that I got bored with 25 cent machines and tried my "luck" at $5 machines. Yikes! Yes, Aslan, you do have a bit of compulsive gambler in you. But to your credit you do disguise it quite well. That is, you know it's a bad thing, so at least now that it's out in the open you have a chance to deal with it. Say, speaking of $5 Deuces Wild, does anyone know how to figure out the required bankroll for this level of play? $25 a pull can eat up some significant cash fast!

25$ a pull Thats about 200 pulls an hour. 200x25=5,000$

Thats about -250.00 per hour in ev@95%

The required BR, that you need is INFINITE!

I dont know sage

 

[jack.jackson]

(Dead link: http://www.bjstrat.net/WW2.html) _My latest WWII update_

1) Changed TKO bet spread to start ramping at TC >= - 3 with 5 units (max bet) at TC >= 0. This pretty much parallels HiLo.

2) My average pre-deal EV has been dropping like a stone. After 545 shoes/7102 rounds it stands at -.6543%. I got to wondering how volatile that figure is so I used Excel's STDEV function for that and some other parameters.

Average one unit flat bet +/- =+.0024 units per round, standard deviation = 1.10 units
Average pre-deal EV = -.6543%, standard deviation = 1.77%

Does this mean that about 68.3% of the time we can expect the average pre-deal EV to be between (-.6543% - 1.77%) and (-.6543% + 1.77%)? If so doesn't this mean that this parameter can't be measured with a very good degree of accuracy?

Here are the other parameters:

Average HiLo bet = 1.75 units, standard deviation = 1.32 units
Average HiLo +/- = +.044 units per round, standard deviation = 2.36
Average HiLo RC = -.31, standard deviation = 3.80
Average HiLo TC = -.25, standard deviation = 3.51

Average UKO bet = 1.76 units, standard deviation = 1.39 units
Average UKO +/- = +.046 units per round, standard deviation = 2.41 units
Average UKO RC = -1.83, standard deviation = 4.24

Average TKO bet = 1.78 units, standard deviation = 1.36 units
Average TKO +/- = +.052 units per round, standard deviation = 2.40
Average TKO RC = -5.83, standard deviation = 4.24
Average TKO TC = -4.30, standard deviation = 3.65

Wait to you see my pre-deal, ev(will post@20,000 hands,currently @19,000).

Ive been gettin slammed, for these last 9,000 hands. My winrate has dropped to about 2%.

I cant believe your doin so well. Well...ya I can.

So... TC,KO is in the lead@3,670$

Whats your win-rate? Im guessin 3%

 

[Kasi]

speaking of $5 Deuces Wild, does anyone know how to figure out the required bankroll for this level of play? $25 a pull can eat up some significant cash fast!

Sounds like you had a great time - good for you. Why not go for it with the house's money

If it was full pay deuces wild (100.76% payback) you'd need $88,000 with no cash-back and have a 10% ROR. With a 1% cash-back, you'd only need $33,000 to have the same risk.

Don't tell anybody but sometimes I've been known to succumb to intense peer-pressure of wife, mother-in-law and assorted sisters and brothers-in laws and even some friends lol and we all throw in $20 and play a $5 slot for a while lol. Hope and dreams run high for at least a little while

Sometimes we even get $10 bucks ahead but my cash-out suggestion is always over-ruled :grin: Go figure lol.

 

[k_c]

(Dead link: http://www.bjstrat.net/WW2.html) _My latest WWII update_

Average one unit flat bet +/- =+.0024 units per round, standard deviation = 1.10 units
Average pre-deal EV = -.6543%, standard deviation = 1.77%

Does this mean that about 68.3% of the time we can expect the average pre-deal EV to be between (-.6543% - 1.77%) and (-.6543% + 1.77%)? If so doesn't this mean that this parameter can't be measured with a very good degree of accuracy?

I'll begin to try and answer my own question knowing that my understanding of statistical analysis is very little. If I can get a basic concept or two down pat I'll be a happy camper for the time being.

First I don't think I framed the question right. From what I understand standard deviation measures how spread out a sampling of data is. The greater the range of data is, the greater the standard deviation. In my sim after 545 shoes/7102 rounds the average pre-round EV = -.6543%. The pre-round EV of each of the 7102 rounds is known to be a valid data point because it is an exact calculation. As I said Excel calculates the standard deviation of the pre-round EV for the 7102 rounds to = 1.77%. But the data points are way spread out. Of the 7102 rounds there are 5 or 6 instances of the pre-round basic strategy EV equaling less than 10%. As I understand it, this would correspond to around a 6 standard deviation event. I would say that knowing all this, the chance of -.6543% being the actual long run pre-round EV is very small even though each data point is a known to be good because it seems the data is too spread out to have a reasonable degree of confidence in the mean. Is this a valid assumption?

 

[jack.jackson]

The 10,000 hand nitemare!

Hands...20,147
Dollars...6,684$
Win-rate..2.23%
Flatbet..-.74%
Dollars wagered...300,073$

 

[aslan]

Sounds like you had a great time - good for you. Why not go for it with the house's money

If it was full pay deuces wild (100.76% payback) you'd need $88,000 with no cash-back and have a 10% ROR. With a 1% cash-back, you'd only need $33,000 to have the same risk.

Don't tell anybody but sometimes I've been known to succumb to intense peer-pressure of wife, mother-in-law and assorted sisters and brothers-in laws and even some friends lol and we all throw in $20 and play a $5 slot for a while lol. Hope and dreams run high for at least a little while

Sometimes we even get $10 bucks ahead but my cash-out suggestion is always over-ruled :grin: Go figure lol.

I thought I had replied to this earlier, but sometimes the posts don't seem to register. Anyway, thanks for the words. A couple of points--I never consider it the house's money once it arrives safely in my pocket. From that point on, it's my money. lol At least that's the way I have been trained to consider it. lol Also, if you ever go on that Deal or No Deal show, please don't listen to your family--when you think it's time to cash out, do it! lol

 

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by Kasi
Sounds like you had a great time - good for you. Why not go for it with the house's money

If it was full pay deuces wild (100.76% payback) you'd need $88,000 with no cash-back and have a 10% ROR. With a 1% cash-back, you'd only need $33,000 to have the same risk.

Don't tell anybody but sometimes I've been known to succumb to intense peer-pressure of wife, mother-in-law and assorted sisters and brothers-in laws and even some friends lol and we all throw in $20 and play a $5 slot for a while lol. Hope and dreams run high for at least a little while

Sometimes we even get $10 bucks ahead but my cash-out suggestion is always over-ruled Go figure lol

I thought I had replied to this earlier, but sometimes the posts don't seem to register. Anyway, thanks for the words. A couple of points--I never consider it the house's money once it arrives safely in my pocket. From that point on, it's my money. lol At least that's the way I have been trained to consider it. lol Also, if you ever go on that Deal or No Deal show, please don't listen to your family--when you think it's time to cash out, do it! lol

here's one for ya guys. the other night my wife whose birthday is this month tells me that she heard on the radio that this joint i go to is gonna have a drawing for anyone whose birthday is in this month and she wants to go and enter the drawing. so me thinkin in my mental mind i'm thinkin (ah, yes me get chance to play blackjack but geesh does she think she's got a prayer of makin it in this silly a$$ birthday drawing?) so we go and just have a really fun day, breakfast on the road and coffee on the way and shooting the breeze, listenin to music. so we get there and she gets these papers to fill out for the hopper. and great AP that i am i tell her to get back in line later and get some more papers and fill those out and put them in too as it was obvious no one was checkin. :devil: and i told her to pocket one of the pen's they had out for people filling out the hopper certificates. :eyepatch:
ok so now me the big AP goes and plays this five dollar table. win ten buck in two hands a so i leave the table. the wife who is used to me playing for a stretch asks me conspiratorily what was wrong with that table? i tell her well i just won ten bucks and my expectation is only $5.48 for an hours play so i'm happy for now. (ok i know that's the wrong mindset but well i'm no AP, just a rec gambler tryin to use some AP stuff ) so we go and we play some penny slots for about three hours or so while this birthday drawing is in process. i think we won $1 .
so but anyway we're playing these penny slots and i hear the wifes name called over the PA. turns out she won five hundred bucks. so my wife's she's all happy and all. well i ask her if it was gonna bring her down if i lost some money playing blackjack. she tells me no and just go ahead and have some fun. so i (and you guys are gonna be proud of me) sort of wonged in on this ten dollar table. played three hands that turned into four because of a split and a double down. i turned out i won it was either ten more dollars or twenty dollars over those hands. so me i won twenty or thirty bucks which was about the same or a bit more than the expectation if i'd of been counting the game for about three hours or so that we were there. and the wife walks away with $501.00 .

 

[aslan]

here's one for ya guys. the other night my wife whose birthday is this month tells me that she heard on the radio that this joint i go to is gonna have a drawing for anyone whose birthday is in this month and she wants to go and enter the drawing. so me thinkin in my mental mind i'm thinkin (ah, yes me get chance to play blackjack but geesh does she think she's got a prayer of makin it in this silly a$$ birthday drawing?) so we go and just have a really fun day, breakfast on the road and coffee on the way and shooting the breeze, listenin to music. so we get there and she gets these papers to fill out for the hopper. and great AP that i am i tell her to get back in line later and get some more papers and fill those out and put them in too as it was obvious no one was checkin. :devil: and i told her to pocket one of the pen's they had out for people filling out the hopper certificates. :eyepatch:
ok so now me the big AP goes and plays this five dollar table. win ten buck in two hands a so i leave the table. the wife who is used to me playing for a stretch asks me conspiratorily what was wrong with that table? i tell her well i just won ten bucks and my expectation is only $5.48 for an hours play so i'm happy for now. (ok i know that's the wrong mindset but well i'm no AP, just a rec gambler tryin to use some AP stuff ) so we go and we play some penny slots for about three hours or so while this birthday drawing is in process. i think we won $1 .
so but anyway we're playing these penny slots and i hear the wifes name called over the PA. turns out she won five hundred bucks. so my wife's she's all happy and all. well i ask her if it was gonna bring her down if i lost some money playing blackjack. she tells me no and just go ahead and have some fun. so i (and you guys are gonna be proud of me) sort of wonged in on this ten dollar table. played three hands that turned into four because of a split and a double down. i turned out i won it was either ten more dollars or twenty dollars over those hands. so me i won twenty or thirty bucks which was about the same or a bit more than the expectation if i'd of been counting the game for about three hours or so that we were there. and the wife walks away with $501.00 .

So I ask you--who is the real AP in your family? Whose idea was it to go in the first place? Who didn't have to spend a cent to be in line for a birthday bonus? Who actually won the money with no risk whatsoever to the old bankroll? And who left with all the money for doing nothing but filling out a few papers? Granted, she had an assist with the idea to stuff the ballot box. BTW, did she get the pen? lol

 

[sagefr0g]

So I ask you--who is the real AP in your family? Whose idea was it to go in the first place? Who didn't have to spend a cent to be in line for a birthday bonus? Who actually won the money with no risk whatsoever to the old bankroll? And who left with all the money for doing nothing but filling out a few papers? Granted, she had an assist with the idea to stuff the ballot box. BTW, did she get the pen? lol

lmao exactly! all's it is that i am is jus a wanna be! :laugh:
but uh huh she did get the pen (pun intended) but not very much, though.:devil:
like i said i'm jus a wanna be.
edit: and a bad bull sh!ter :joker::whip:

 

[aslan]

lmao exactly! all's it is that i am is jus a wanna be! :laugh:
but uh huh she did get the pen (pun intended) but not very much, though.:devil:
like i said i'm jus a wanna be.
edit: and a bad bull sh!ter :joker::whip:

All I can say is, when she wants to go to the casino, don't think twice. It's a no brainer! :laugh:

 

[sagefr0g]

some more coin flippin

up $1250.00
1,734 hands
look like i got a one high standard deviation goin here

 

[zengrifter]

here's one for ya guys. the other night my wife whose birthday is this month tells me that she heard on the radio that this joint i go to is gonna have a drawing for anyone whose birthday is in this month and she wants to go and enter the drawing. so me thinkin in my mental mind i'm thinkin (ah, yes me get chance to play blackjack but geesh does she think she's got a prayer of makin it in this silly a$$ birthday drawing?) so we go and just have a really fun day, breakfast on the road and coffee on the way and shooting the breeze, listenin to music. so we get there and she gets these papers to fill out for the hopper. and great AP that i am i tell her to get back in line later and get some more papers and fill those out and put them in too as it was obvious no one was checkin. :devil: and i told her to pocket one of the pen's they had out for people filling out the hopper certificates. :eyepatch:
ok so now me the big AP goes and plays this five dollar table. win ten buck in two hands a so i leave the table. the wife who is used to me playing for a stretch asks me conspiratorily what was wrong with that table? i tell her well i just won ten bucks and my expectation is only $5.48 for an hours play so i'm happy for now. (ok i know that's the wrong mindset but well i'm no AP, just a rec gambler tryin to use some AP stuff ) so we go and we play some penny slots for about three hours or so while this birthday drawing is in process. i think we won $1 .
so but anyway we're playing these penny slots and i hear the wifes name called over the PA. turns out she won five hundred bucks. so my wife's she's all happy and all. well i ask her if it was gonna bring her down if i lost some money playing blackjack. she tells me no and just go ahead and have some fun. so i (and you guys are gonna be proud of me) sort of wonged in on this ten dollar table. played three hands that turned into four because of a split and a double down. i turned out i won it was either ten more dollars or twenty dollars over those hands. so me i won twenty or thirty bucks which was about the same or a bit more than the expectation if i'd of been counting the game for about three hours or so that we were there. and the wife walks away with $501.00 .

You are a sorry excuse for a card-counter, soldier! zg

 

[aslan]

You are a sorry excuse for a card-counter, soldier! zg

But he's one hell of a human being!

 

[sagefr0g]

You are a sorry excuse for a card-counter, soldier! zg

for $5.48/hr i can afford to be lax. but your right my performance under real casino conditions is less than mediocre even when i'm honestly putting forth the effort. then in truth i'm a scarity cat when it comes to the risk of ruin stuff as well. i don't completely buy the ROR maths and even if i'm wrong about that i'd expect myself to be in the percents of losers for any given ROR, lmao. but bottom line is, life is good and if i ever get hungry enough i think i could earn enough to buy a $0.99 Wendy's baked potatoe or two by knuckling down and soldiering on.
oh yeah and read this too:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=98287&postcount=135

 

[k_c]

(Dead link: http://www.bjstrat.net/WW2.html) _Latest WWII update_

Seems to be a picture of positive variance.:cool2: For the most part expectations are being exceeded. Even a flat bettor is in the plus as of this post. Is there a way to bottle this type of thing?

But -
Expected hourly rate @ 100 rounds/hour seems to be around $5 per hour :sad: with RoR (Griffin, Theory of Blackjack) of about 14% to 17% for a bankroll of $1000 and the given spreads when attempting to grow the bankroll to $1,000,000 (if you only had the time!) At this point it seems for this game unbalanced KO has slightly higher overall expectation with a lower RoR than either Hi-Lo or true counted KO but each seems to be performing close to the same. (All basic strategy only.)

Standard deviations -
One unit flat bettor: 1.10 units/round
Hi-Lo spread bettor: 2.37 units/round
Unbalanced KO spread bettor: 2.42 units/round
True counted KO spread bettor: 2.40 units/round

 

[zengrifter]

for $5.48/hr i can afford to be lax. but your right my performance under real casino conditions is less than mediocre even when i'm honestly putting forth the effort. then in truth i'm a scarity cat when it comes to the risk of ruin stuff as well. i don't completely buy the ROR maths and even if i'm wrong about that i'd expect myself to be in the percents of losers for any given ROR, lmao. but bottom line is, life is good and if i ever get hungry enough i think i could earn enough to buy a $0.99 Wendy's baked potatoe or two by knuckling down and soldiering on.

"knuckling down and soldiering on" thats the ticket - mach schnell! zg

 

[jack.jackson]

23,611......$6,027

..Im a hundred miles away son

Can you see where I got mad and started steaming...lol

ps. Sage, do they still have those 1$ McChickens down there?MMMMmmmmmm, I'm Lovin'it. Eatin good in the neighborhood. Ya, buddy

 

[sagefr0g]

"knuckling down and soldiering on" thats the ticket - mach schnell! zg

your forth rightness and candor are appreciated.
you might appreciate that i play basic strategy so much it's difficult for me to make a wrong bs play even if i wanted to.
on those marching orders however don't count (punny) on it unless i find myself in bankroll bottom line trouble. my priortities are rec>roll increase if roll decrease then roll increase>rec till original roll.
i'm shooting for that mystical spiritual state:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=98209&postcount=19