SOFT 18 VS a PICTURE

matteotm

matteotm

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
Hi guys, LOL

well after my "i quit blackjack posts" sorry to say im back again ... i have been back twice after 3 weeks of "qutting" won some money back didnt let my self take it so seriously this time.. went expecting to lose.

one thing i did was hit a soft 18 against a dealer 10.. drawing i think a 6 or 7 hit again for a picture to bust.,(the lady who bet behind had a go at me of course)

the same hand came up ...after some lengthy thought i decided to stand going against basic strat. of course the next card was a "3" i let out a few colorful words but was not surprised ..

my question is...........soft 18 vS TEN and ACE

does any1 actually HIT on soft 18 and feel like they are making the right move... its seems safer to stay (although im sure mathematically it is not)

any1 have good reasons to hit..
(besdies stating a very small differnce in % winning/losing differnce STAND VS HIT)

I could understand this logic if it was 1 on 1. but on a table on 4-5 other players i feels like the wrong choice.
 
KenSmith

KenSmith

Administrator
Staff member
#3
#3
Just hit it. That's roughly a 3.5% loss on your wager if you stand with A7vT. Each time you stand with a $10 bet out, think of it like you're handing the casino 35 cents.

As for intuitively understanding why this play is correct, I can't help much there. I guess you could think of it like this:
The dealer ten probably has me beaten, and since my hand is soft, it's like I get a free chance to improve it with no chance of busting on the first card.

Yeah, it's a stretch, because you often bust this hand on the second card.

Basically, basic strategy doesn't have to make sense.
 
N

neemo6

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
KenSmith said:
I guess you could think of it like this:
...since my hand is soft, it's like I get a free chance to improve it with no chance of busting on the first card.
Click to expand...

I feel thats the perfect way of explaining most soft hands, especially a soft 18 against a 10 or A.
 
Mikeaber

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
I'm seeing more and more people hit the soft-18 with the dealer showing 9-Ace. It sure didn't use to be that way though. Maybe players are getting more knowlegable.
 
C

Canceler

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
How to feel better about it...

First, realize that an A, 2, or 3 will help you, and a 10, J, Q, or K won't hurt you. (More than half the cards you could get will help or not hurt.)

Next is that even if you get a crappy first hit, you can still draw another card which could lead to an improvement over your original 18.

Also, against a T or A, your 18 is just not that good.

And when you bust, just ignore the people shaking their heads over you wrecking your "perfectly good" 18. You know you did the right thing.
 
S

SystemsTrader

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
Here's another way to look at it. If the Casino offered you a constant hand of 18 should you take it? The answer is no as the dealers average hand will be 18.6 so in the long run you would be a net loser. 18 is just not a good hand especially against a 10.
 
J

johntks

Member
#8
#8
This is my biggest problem

I have got myself into more trouble with my fellow players on hitting soft 18 against the 10 than even hitting 16 against 17. It is really nothing to do with Basic Stategy but more about getting the heat from the other players especially on a crowded table.
Playing with novice players I would hit as they are too preoccupied with their own card. With the know-something players I would sometimes take the chance and hit. With the regular seasoned players I won't dare to hit. I have been burnt before.
I once found myself unwittingly in the third base position. When I motion to hit my soft 18 against the dealers picture card the woman next to me ask me "You have 18 already, why do you need another card". How do explain to her that this is the correct basic stategy play. Well as luck would have it I pull a 5 and a picture card and busted. The dealer then pull a
picture card for a total of 20 and collected the bets from all the other players. The next thing I knew everybody has left the table and I was left to play alone with the dealer. I was not very popular around the Blackjack tables for the rest of the cruise on the cruise ship.
 
Mikeaber

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
Sorry John, but what the other players at your table "think" of you really doesn't make a damn bit of difference! It's nice if you have a table with good Karma (???) but you really shouldn't let that influence you into making mathematically bad decisions. Just tell the fools at that table who think you are making bad plays, to consult their $2 Strategy Card and leave you alone.

johntks said:
I have got myself into more trouble with my fellow players on hitting soft 18 against the 10 than even hitting 16 against 17. It is really nothing to do with Basic Stategy but more about getting the heat from the other players especially on a crowded table.
Playing with novice players I would hit as they are too preoccupied with their own card. With the know-something players I would sometimes take the chance and hit. With the regular seasoned players I won't dare to hit. I have been burnt before.
I once found myself unwittingly in the third base position. When I motion to hit my soft 18 against the dealers picture card the woman next to me ask me "You have 18 already, why do you need another card". How do explain to her that this is the correct basic stategy play. Well as luck would have it I pull a 5 and a picture card and busted. The dealer then pull a
picture card for a total of 20 and collected the bets from all the other players. The next thing I knew everybody has left the table and I was left to play alone with the dealer. I was not very popular around the Blackjack tables for the rest of the cruise on the cruise ship.
Click to expand...
 
E

E-town-guy

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
Its also your money so who cares what they think. And personally if I could make the correct decision and play heads up against the dealer that would be even better (for a counter).

Don't become an idiot just because everyone else at the table is one.
 
Mikeaber

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
As a followup on this, at Plaza this past weekend, a couple of hours before our plane left, there were three people at the table I was playing at. Double deck and the new screwed Plaza rules. One was a guy who'd followed me from LVC so he could shirt-tail my play and then there was a rookie lady sitting down on first base. As soon as she sat down and proclaimed her "rookie" status, the dealer told her to ask me if she had any questions. There were several plays in which she did just that and followed my advice. Then she drew a twelve and the dealer was showing a deuce. Before I said anything, the dealer told her to STAND. I told her that Basic Strategy indicated a hit on dealer 2 and 3 in that case. She stood. The player next to her stood on a stiff. I also had a twelve and hit a face to bust. The dealer drew a 9 for 21 and beat the other two players. I just looked at first base and said that though she didn't bust the table by the mistake, she would, 1 out of three times, bust on the first card when hitting the twelve but would lose at least 80% of the time if she didn't hit it. She just looked at me with glassy eyes. The only thing that this brought about was that that particular dealer never offered advice to players during that session <grin>.

Now, this is coming from an opposite perspective as that of your question WarEagle, but it is basically the same thing. It is hopeless trying to explain either the logic or mathematics of the probability in Basic Strategy cards to those who are brainless or those who believe in Voodoo....hmmm, I wonder if there is any difference between the two?

Now, there is nothing wrong with sitting down at a blackjack table with the objective of having fun. I wear my "scarlet P" (P=Ploppy) with pride <LOL>. But I'll be damned if I'll intentionally make bad decisions just to keep the table I'm playing at happy. I don't mind making the table happy in other ways but my objective is NOT to make the casino happy by throwing away money with bad decisions when I have the knowledge to make better playing decisions based on research and mathematical fact. I'm giving the casino their cut of my bankroll by means of the long term house edge. I don't intend to accelerate it more than necessary!
 
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matteotm

matteotm

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
yes mike i agree..

i always see people buy in for 10 times the amount of money i buy in and then proceed to make brainless plays... like this one guy who had a $200 bet out there got 12 against a dealers 10 and then asked if he could double it (of course luckily for him in my casino you can only double 9,10,11) but instead of letting the bad plays get to me i just think this"

"with plays like that they wont last, and usually there out of chips pretty quickly and leave the table, " i mean it can go both ways like ur playing B/S and every1 around you is just doing anything and there all winning and your the one who is losing...but its a rare case but that can really annoy me LOL

Interesting topic though a A+7 vs 9,10,A is not a pretty hand at all.

in contrast to the 12 Vs. 2,3 I have no problems hitting a 12 against a 2,3 Ive found that I rarely bust even though i should (1 out of 3 times) my strike rate seems to be better.. and against a 2 i can see why it would be wrong to stand the 80% loss statistic is not surprising
 
J

johntks

Member
#13
#13
Guys, I am not going to get into an arguement with you all on whether one should play basic stategy regardless of your fellow players.
My point which is missed by all of you is that half the BJ players do not know how to play their soft 17 hand. So when you play your soft 18 hand (if you are not standing on it) it is completely alien territory to them. Human nature being what it is, if the result is a loss to them they will blame it on you. They will also conclude that you are also a crazy player because nobody else do the same thing.
I tell you, you can shrug off the heat on you. But after some time it does affect your peace of mind.
 
V

violentkun

Active Member
#14
#14
matteotm said:
Read up on google . found this article

http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/...e-through-ace-make-the-best-of-a-bad-lot-5415

will hit next time based on the reasons given although i guess it depends how often you play if you only play once a year then its pretty 50/50 differnce if you play alot then it will matter in the long run.

still any thoughts on this particular hand?
Click to expand...
i went to that link, the numbers are not even correct. That guy is no mathematician.


so the question and topic is SOFT 18 VS a PICTURE. To stand or to hit. No one has answered it in maths perception yet. That will help alot.
 
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V

violentkun

Active Member
#17
#17
zengrifter said:
Violentkun, do you know 'basic strategy'? zg
Click to expand...
HAHAHAHA good question.

Yes i know and i know it best in this world, no one else can know it better than me.

The topic was about whether to hit on a Soft 18 vs an Ace or Ten. Lets focus on the Ten.

Instead of visualising and speculating, i will back it by numbers and maths.


-Players card distribution and calculation is based assuming it has infinite decks and cards appeared has no effect.

-Dealers card distribution and probability is based on a 6 shoe size decks.

By standing on a Soft 18 vs a dealer 10.

Chance of winning 32.438% (winning against dealer's 17, soft 17 (11.19%) and Dealer bust (21.25%))
Chance of push is 11.167% (pushing against dealer's 18 (11.17%)
Chance of losing is 56.395% (Dealer's 19 to 21 makes up 56.395% with 20 takes up majority of 34%)

By Hitting on a Soft 18, you are converting yourself to a Hard 8 unless you draw Card 2 or 3. Ok we assumed its coverted to Hard 8.

Assuming you only stand at 17 since versus a 10 face card. Your chance of getting a:

17: 12.89%
18: 35.99%
19: 12.87%
20: 6.92%
21: 6.95%
BUST: 24.37%


But the chances of getting a 20 and 21 increased significantly because the above table is based on Hard 8. You will have alternative events independent of the above table. Such as Soft 20 and Soft 21 (bear in mind Soft 19 is not considered because in a Soft 19, means you hitted an Ace. The first Ace is considered as 1 while the Second Ace is considered as 11, therefore a Soft 19 is already included in the above table)

Soft 20 and Soft 21 alone has a combined 15.38% independent of the above table. The table represent 84.62% of the real info ( 100 - 15.38%)

After Considering Soft 20 and Soft 21. There's a new table.

17: 12.89% (12.89% x 84.62%) = 10.91%
18: 35.99% (35.99% x 84.62%) = 30.45%
19: 12.87% (12.87% x 84.62%) = 10.89%
*TAKE NOTE*
20: 6.92% (6.92 x 84.62%) + (7.69) = 5.86 + 7.69 = 13.55%
*TAKE NOTE*
21: 6.95% (6.95% x 84.62%) + (7.69) = 5.88 + 7.69 = 13.57%
BUST: 24.37% (24.37% x 84.62%) = 20.61%

if dealer is a 17:

My chance of winning is the chances of 18 + 19 + 20 + 21 which is 68.45
My chance of push is my 17 which is 12.89%
My chance of Lose is 20.61% which i busted.

if dealer is a 18:

My chance of winning is the chances of 19+20+21 which is 38%
My chance of push is 18 which is 30.45%
My chance of Losing means either i got a bust or a 17 which is 20.61 + 12.89 = 31.52

if dealer is a 19:

My chance of winning is the chances of 20+21 which is 25.13%
My chance of push means dealer got a 19 which is 12.87
I will lose if i Bust, got a 17 or 18 which is 62%

if dealer is a 20:

My only chance if winning if he got a 20 is that i got 21 which is 13.57%.
I push a 20 at the chance of 13.55%
Else, i lose at a high chance of 72.88%


if dealer is a 21:

My chance of winning is 0.
But i still can push him with a 21 at a chance of 13.57%
Otherwise i lose at 86.43%


if dealer is a BlackJack:

Chance of win and push is 0.
Chance of lose is 100.

if dealer is a Bust:

Chance of win will be 79.39% which i didnt bust.
There will be no chance of a push.
Chance of lose, there will be still chances i lost as it could mean simultenous bust, both of us bust but i lose. 20.61%


Computing based on the above information and i stand on only 17.

so NOW TO HIT ON SOFT 18 VS A 10. I WILL COMPUTE IT AND SHOW YOU CONSIDER THE COMBINED CHANCE OF BOTH DEALER AND PLAYER.

If decide to HIT Card on a Soft 18 vs a dealer 10.

Chance of winning :36.1986807
Chance of push : 11.3441523
Chance of losing : 52.6520116

By standing on a Soft 18 vs a dealer 10.

Chance of winning : 32.438%
Chance of push : 11.167%
Chance of losing : 56.395%




AND I WILL RANDOMLY GENERATE 20 MILLION HANDS USING MY PROGRAM GIVING THE DEALER A FIRST CARD OF 10 AND GIVE THE PLAYER AN ACE AND A 7. First 10 million i choose not to hit.
The second 10 million i choose to hit.
but my slow computer will takes 12 hours to finish this task.


now question 2..... how about SOFT 18 vs an ACE.
if you are advised to HIT vs a TEN, its wise to HIT too vs an ACE.
 
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V

violentkun

Active Member
#18
#18
The probability telly exactly with my computer program, although i generate only 100,000 games. I cant go further unless i have a supercomputer.

it's almost 4% advantage if you hit.

Hitting it increase the overall game player adv by only 0.015%. The low percentage is due to the low occurance of such event. Every 1000 game you only encounter 3.6 games which you have a A7 vs 10.
 
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bj bob

bj bob

Well-Known Member
#19
#19
A7 vs.9/10/A

Having followed the responses of the previous theme of hitting the A7,let me add one more aspect.Ken's reponse was correct and quite clear i.e.that hitting the A-7 more often inproves your hand than not.The third advantage is that if you have to draw two cards to the A-7 that mathamatically, the average point value avarage of drawing two cards will total-13. That results in a 21!BJ Bob
 
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