What Could I Be Doing Wrong?

[monopoly]

Hi Everybody,

I started counting cards back in August. I practice rigourously and regularly by using Casino Verite and frequenting casinos every weekend. I am able to count a deck down in less than 20 seconds and very rarely make any mistakes in my count.

I am using the Hi-Lo system with the Illustrious 18 deviation. I normally play at the $25-$500 8-deck table with a penetration of 75%-80%. All my basic strategy, Ill18, and divisions for calculating the TC are tip top.

Last week when I went I came out with a loss of roughly $11,000. I am still getting over the shock of it, especially because the RC was so through the roof that I had TCs as high as +7!

My betting spread is as follows for the according TC's:
-/0 = $25
+1 = $60
+2 = $150
+3 = $300
+4 = $390
+5/+ = $480

I normally play even when RC is in the negatives to deter heat at the table as most 'sheep' players despise others yo-yo-ing in and out of a shoe since they believe it "screws up the cards". I must stress though, most of my losses
occur when I bet big.

With the terrific shoes that I had, I would say that during this last trip the dealer had a record amount of 21s... all beginning with bust cards! I could not believe what I saw. TC would be at +7, and dealer showed a 6. Then a face card, and finally butchered us all with a five. Perfect 21s left, right and center,....all created out of bust cards! At best I would be tying the dealer with BJs, but other than that I am at a loss of words to tell you how often the dealer had 21. And how often each of them started out with the dealer showing a bust card!

I would say I'm pretty good at this, and am happy with Hi-Lo. I don't want to move up to another strategy just yet. I would kindly like to ask, how much I should be making an hour roughly with this sort of betting spread, system and table type? I am realizing that when I leave winning, I am making an average of $1200 after a day or 2 (8 hours each) of play. However, when I lose, I always lose BIG. Three weeks ago I lost around $10k and then it took me about 3 weeks to make back that money, only for it to be lost from this last trip. Basically, my wins are not proportional to my losses. It seems like I always end up breaking even. I make back these losses little by little only to take another huge blow.

On another note, I also want to emphasize how strict I am about taking care of my emotions, diet, and sleep during the trips to avoid fatigue, prevent any human errors and to successfully cope with the losses.

Can anybody detect a possible error I made on my behalf that could explain the huge blows to my bankroll?

Thanks in advance,
mp

 

[EasyRhino]

I've lost 4 or 5 thousand in two hours with a $300 max bet. So losing $11k with a $500 max bet is by no means surprising over a longer stretch.

You can calculate your EV (expected value) per hour. You can read up in blackjack attack, or run a sim (powersim is free, cvcx and cvdata are fancier, and not too expensive relative to your bets). But spitballing a $50 EV (not accounting for tipping or mistakes) wouldn't seem unachievable.

But I don't think it's useful to consider EV to be "earning" money, as that implies a certain reliability in winnings... and there isn't any of that. Short term fluctuations will be dramatic.

If your bankroll is fixed, and under $25k, you're probably committing bankroll suicide.

 

[PrinceDragon]

Reason why you are struggling

8-deck table with a penetration of 75%-80%.

8deckers are horrible genially,with that kind of pen...better spend your time and money somewhere else

I normally play even when RC is in the negatives

Playing Neg counts kills alot of your EV

According to a canned sim from CVCX:
Hilo sweet 16 play all,i put in your bet ramp,
your Adv=0.866%
WR=55.05
Sd=1322/Hr
SCORE=17.33
Dont know what's your BR,so assuming 25k,
ROR=20.7%
50k,ROR=4.3%

Here is what i think:
There is nothing wrong with the system you using,or your ability to count,you just playing a terrible game to begin with.
try to find a better game,or at least WONG out of neg count

Hope this helps

P.D.

 

[shadroch]

If you are consistantly getting extremely high TCs, I'd think about if you are converting the running count properly. While its not all that strange to drop 20 big bets, I'd look into the technical aspects of my game.

 

[Pelerus]

I am using the Hi-Lo system with the Illustrious 18 deviation. I normally play at the $25-$500 8-deck table with a penetration of 75%-80%... My betting spread is as follows for the according TC's:
-/0 = $25
+1 = $60
+2 = $150
+3 = $300
+4 = $390
+5/+ = $480

I would kindly like to ask, how much I should be making an hour roughly with this sort of betting spread, system and table type?

According to the CVCX canned sim, about $80 per hour.

I am realizing that when I leave winning, I am making an average of $1200 after a day or 2 (8 hours each) of play.

For 16 hours of play, $1200 is almost the exact expectation under these conditions.

However, when I lose, I always lose BIG... Can anybody detect a possible error I made on my behalf that could explain the huge blows to my bankroll?

Clearly, no tactical error (that you mentioned) can account for these huge swings - only luck can do that. But that doesn't stop us from looking at the ways in which we can in fact improve. That being said...

Some will assert that since you're playing an 8 deck shoe, you ought to wong out instead of playing all. Doing so will reduce variance. Nevertheless, as for EV, the 1 to 19+ spread you are employing is sufficient to beat that game handily. (And I sympathize with the objections you gave to wonging, as I am primarily a shoe player myself.)

The next concern is bankroll. Playing to a bankroll of $50,000 under the conditions you listed comes with an RoR of 1.4%. With a bankroll of $30k, it is 7.9%, and with $25k 12%. Just what is your bankroll?

I feel that playing these types of larger bankrolls with RoRs significantly above 1% is foolhardy, but that's just my preference. I play with a higher RoR now because I must, due to a small bankroll, table minimums present, and games available. But if I had a $50k BR, which is along the lines of what I really hope you do have to be playing this way, I would seriously consider investing some time into travel and game selection. With a bankroll of that size, the relevant question becomes: is blackjack now a hobby or something worthy of a lifestyle change (i.e. traveling around the country and/or relocating entirely).

An 8 deck can certainly be beaten, and it can even be beaten the way in which you would like to beat it (without wonging) - but that is also far from an ideal set of circumstances to be playing for your primary venue if you take this venture seriously.

 

[monopoly]

Thanks for the encouragement EasyRhino, it's good to know that even a pro could find himself in similar predicaments. Just more of a reason to keep going strong even through these frustrating streaks.

PrinceDragon, thanks for your VERY detailed response and I am very grateful for your kindness. Unfortunately, I'm forced to play 8-deck shoes if I want a betting minimum of $25 or less because it's within the limit I can afford to play. I have looked into other casinos in and around my vicinity and they are all similar. The only non-8-deck shoes are offered to high rollers (VIP room) which start at a $100 minimum. Even though I am able to afford a bankroll to play at these tables, I am limiting myself to around a BR of $50,000. I am still very nervous about my system and these rooms are usually very empty and house a lot of pit bosses.

PrinceDragon, I appreciate the stats you've provided me with and it's helpful to know them because I didn't know how to calculate them for my play. I would kindly like to ask you to clarify the abbreviations. I'm assuming WR means 'winning rate', can you define that more please? I've looked up SD and it can mean 'single deck' or 'standard deviation'. So I wonder what you mean by 1322/hr... are you saying I would make that much per hour in a single-deck game? I unfortunately don't know what 'SCORE' means as well.

Pelerus, thank you also for shedding light on my situation. You're right about the $1200 for 16 hours of play and it does make sense with $80/hour. As for my bankroll, it is but not limited to $50,000. And as for your suggestion to travel, I unfortunately at the moment can't due to personal and business commitments. However, if you were to suggest a venue where I can be in an ideal circumstance, where would be a good place to travel close to northeastern America? I'm assuming Atlantic City?

I'm very grateful for this community you guys have here and for taking your time to educate and do these calculations for me. I'll do all I can to also contribute to this fine forum of great minds.

Cheers,
mp

 

[PrinceDragon]

Unfortunately, I'm forced to play 8-deck shoes

NOBODY can FORCED you to play anything you don't desire.In my situation,for example:I've about 8 casino to play at within 45 mins of driving distance,but i often choose to drive 1+hour to play,just because the game and conditions are much better in those places.

I am still very nervous about my system and these rooms are usually very empty and house a lot of pit bosses.

You should have faith in whatever system you're using,even some of the biggest money makers in BJ arena just use Hilo to make hundred's thousand,if not millions.
Also,you should consider enploy some camo in your plays,for the money you put on the table,once you start hitting those positive variance,casino WILL sweat your action.

PrinceDragon, I appreciate the stats you've provided me with and it's helpful to know them because I didn't know how to calculate them for my play.

You're very welcome.

I would kindly like to ask you to clarify the abbreviations. I'm assuming WR means 'winning rate',

WR=win rate per hour

I've looked up SD and it can mean 'single deck' or 'standard deviation'

Standard deviation

So I wonder what you mean by 1322/hr...

Basically it means you either win or lose that amount in an hour.But that's not a exact figure.

I unfortunately don't know what 'SCORE' means as well.

SCORE=Standardized Comparison Of Risk and Expectation.

Here's my suggestion for you:run,yes i mean it.RUN to a book store near you and buy a book named Blackjack Attack 3rd edition.(or you can get it from Amazon.com)
First time you read the book,you probably won't fully understand everything the author says,then re-read it again.I read the book 3 times myself,and often when i need a answer,i will goto that book first.

Hope this helps

P.D.

 

[Tarzan]

Short term versus long term

Blackjack is full full of ups and downs and what can be a huge fluctuation factor depending on your betting spread. You are looking at the short term. A professional player that plays 30-50 hours a week can have a YEAR in which he makes $170,000.00 and the very next year make MINUS $20,000.00 and that's just the way it is. Blackjack is played for the very long term. Losing streaks can run for long periods of time and be discouraging and can even devastate you financially. Winning streaks can also run for long periods, (giving someone that does not know better) a sense of invincibility, a false sense of security.

There is only one way to combat this huge fluctuation factor, which is having a sufficient bankroll to ride out the storm when it's bad. Remaining cool, calm and collect when you are slamming it out and piling it up also! Don't let a very long winning streak make you think you are invincible and cause you to overbet your bankroll or make money management mistakes.

On a trip out west, I had my sister and brother in law with me in tow for a Vegas trip. My brother in law, who is watching me slam out a fair buck while there, sees the spiffy hotel accomodations, we go out to eat at the local fine dining restaurant, etc. says along the lines of ,"Gee, I would love to do what you do for a living". He has a cozy enough job in which they throw him a steady paycheck, so I say to him,"What if you had a job that hinged on your every move and maintaining your composure was paramount, your every calculation needs to be spot on and even if you do everything perfectly you can still make MINUS $2000 for the month in wages?" This startled him and he came out with,"Oh NOOOO... I couldn't do THAT!", implying that this would be devastating for him not only financially but also emotionally.

He had just watched me slam out a nice run over a few days and he was seeing the bricks of 100 dollar bills laying about. I had to tell him about just how truly bad it can go and how my winning run was nice but not the norm and I actually only make around $25-$60 per hour when I average out the whole YEARS of play.

The part that I DIDN'T tell him (in order to be somewhat polite) is that he is a jumpy, jittery, impatient, instant gratification kind of guy and does not have the psychological makeup to survive at this happy stuff. In reality few people do. The long term is just that... the LONG term; Anything can happen in the short term and you can be the best blackjack player in the world and still just get crummy cards and have ridiculously long losing streaks in which you have to keep your sanity, manage your money effectively and patiently plug away, knowing it will swing back if you do everything according to the math.

 

[creeping panther]

Monopoly

Hi Everybody,

I started counting cards back in August. I practice rigourously and regularly by using Casino Verite and frequenting casinos every weekend. I am able to count a deck down in less than 20 seconds and very rarely make any mistakes in my count.

I am using the Hi-Lo system with the Illustrious 18 deviation. I normally play at the $25-$500 8-deck table with a penetration of 75%-80%. All my basic strategy, Ill18, and divisions for calculating the TC are tip top.

Last week when I went I came out with a loss of roughly $11,000. I am still getting over the shock of it, especially because the RC was so through the roof that I had TCs as high as +7!

My betting spread is as follows for the according TC's:
-/0 = $25
+1 = $60
+2 = $150
+3 = $300
+4 = $390
+5/+ = $480

I normally play even when RC is in the negatives to deter heat at the table as most 'sheep' players despise others yo-yo-ing in and out of a shoe since they believe it "screws up the cards". I must stress though, most of my losses
occur when I bet big.

With the terrific shoes that I had, I would say that during this last trip the dealer had a record amount of 21s... all beginning with bust cards! I could not believe what I saw. TC would be at +7, and dealer showed a 6. Then a face card, and finally butchered us all with a five. Perfect 21s left, right and center,....all created out of bust cards! At best I would be tying the dealer with BJs, but other than that I am at a loss of words to tell you how often the dealer had 21. And how often each of them started out with the dealer showing a bust card!

I would say I'm pretty good at this, and am happy with Hi-Lo. I don't want to move up to another strategy just yet. I would kindly like to ask, how much I should be making an hour roughly with this sort of betting spread, system and table type? I am realizing that when I leave winning, I am making an average of $1200 after a day or 2 (8 hours each) of play. However, when I lose, I always lose BIG. Three weeks ago I lost around $10k and then it took me about 3 weeks to make back that money, only for it to be lost from this last trip. Basically, my wins are not proportional to my losses. It seems like I always end up breaking even. I make back these losses little by little only to take another huge blow.

On another note, I also want to emphasize how strict I am about taking care of my emotions, diet, and sleep during the trips to avoid fatigue, prevent any human errors and to successfully cope with the losses.

Can anybody detect a possible error I made on my behalf that could explain the huge blows to my bankroll?

Thanks in advance,
mp

I am sorry for your experience. It is to be expected, however, from what you described.

I suggest that you travel to the good games, as what you are ramping $ it appears you can afford a plane trip here or there.

That 8 decker you play... please don't play it. If you can find one to play for practice at $5 a hand ok, just for real casino practice.

See the post under General for the "09 BJ BASH" as I think you could gain much by attending.

Chill for awhile.

CP

 

[Brock Windsor]

You should have faith in whatever system you're using,even some of the biggest money makers in BJ arena just use Hilo to make hundred's thousand,if not millions.
.

Seems like urban legend. I don't think anyone is making millions just counting cards solo. Using techniques that provide a higher advantage yes there will be. $300/hr is realistically the ceiling.
BW

 

[Brock Windsor]

Hi Everybody,

My betting spread is as follows for the according TC's:
-/0 = $25
+1 = $60
+2 = $150
+3 = $300
+4 = $390
+5/+ = $480

Can anybody detect a possible error I made on my behalf that could explain the huge blows to my bankroll?

Don't raise your bet until a TC of + 2. Depending on the rules (which you didn't post) you probably don't have an advantage at TC +1 in an 8decker and raising your bet that early increases variance. I would also wong in and out. 22 Big bets is a bad draw down but that will happen. You should also be spreading to multiple hands if you are not.
BW

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Seems like urban legend. I don't think anyone is making millions just counting cards solo. Using techniques that provide a higher advantage yes there will be. $300/hr is realistically the ceiling.
BW

That's a million in two years, not implausible.

Regarding the original question- losing $11K with a max bet of $480, also very plausible. You can lose several thousand on one hand with that kind of bet. I might recommend spreading to two hands of $250, that will keep the swings down, way down.

 

[Kasi]

it's helpful to know them because I didn't know how to calculate them for my play. I would kindly like to ask you to clarify the abbreviations. I'm assuming WR means 'winning rate', can you define that more please? I've looked up SD and it can mean 'single deck' or 'standard deviation'. So I wonder what you mean by 1322/hr... are you saying I would make that much per hour in a single-deck game? I unfortunately don't know what 'SCORE' means as well.

I'm not saying you're doing anything really "wrong" but I think you hit the nail on the head here. Playing without knowing what to expect is really flying blind lol. You have these swings but how expected are they kind of thing?

I ran your spread thru Table 10.9 in BJAIII, a 6/8 DAS S17 game. Got numbers similar to PD - I got $1253 standard deviation for 100 hands. You don't say over how many hands you lost $11000. In 1000 hands losing that musc much would be the low end of 3 standard deviations. In 2500 hands, it's the low end of 2 stand deviations. You call them "huge" swings but they may very well be not overly surprising. If they turn out to be vaery rare, at least you know it's not real likely you'll be experiencing whatever again anytime soon or maybe an indication there is a flaw in something you are doing.

You talk in terms of hours - always playing at full tables, semi-full tables, maybe even heads-up at times? 100 hours later maybe all 3 have ocurred and an assumption of 100/hds/hr may not be the best estimate of what actually occurred.

Anyway, I'd make an effort to understand what to expect, what might change if pen or rules changes. What to bet if you choose to stop playing-all. Or choose to spread when/if you can, etc.

In other words, with $50K roll, you've already invested in CVBJ, I'd blow another $100 on CVCX. It figures everything out for you, including determing whether your bet ramp is actually optimal or not. It may not be. That way you can tell it your results after every session and sort of see how close you are to expected and how unlikely it may be if you are pretty far from expected. If you ever see a 7/8 game, since you ran a sim already for that, you'll know how to change your bets that shoe to keep risk the same.

How much money to take on a trip anticipating playing so many hours. Stuff like that.

I get an ROR of 4.7% with $50K which also means a 22% chance of halving your roll at some point.

I got a win rate of $48 per 100 hands but if the pen changes to 6.5/8 I think it jumped to like $66.

How'd you come with your spread in the first place? Just curious.

Playing all hands is not really that great of a game to be doing that in. A tough road. Is mid-shoe entry allowed?

Not a doubt in my mind your counting, use of indexes is plenty accurate enough.

Oh yes, don't be terrified of stan deviation like I was. It just a way of saying how likely one's results will deviate from expected.

Results will fall within 1 stan dev, plus or minus of EV, about 68% or so of the time. 2 SD means about 95%. 3 means about 99.7% or so.

All this stuff can only be figured out by a sim, once you tell it everything you have to. So, I'd call it a necessity with the money you have at risk. In my Table 10.9 thing, I got an avg bet of $60, so it's less than what you bet on 2 hands. OK - I really don't know what it costs. Whatever it does, it's cheap at twice the price.

Then, if you want, after you run the sim, go ahead and play 5-10K hands or more on CVBJ and compare your results to the expected results from that sim. That should eliminate any lingering doubts you may still have on skill level and give you a flavor of the possible swings.

Good luck. Who knows, maybe despite these losses, you may be ahead of expected

 

[sagefr0g]

....
Results will fall within 1 stan dev, plus or minus of EV, about 68% or so of the time. 2 SD means about 95%. 3 means about 99.7% or so.
...

kind of weird, like to my mind say my results are three standard deviations, i mean to me that's like say i lost or won some amount pretty high above or below my EV. well, to my mind results such as that should be deemed in the realm of relatively rare events sort of thing. but again to me, it seems paradoxical in a sense that yeah it might be rare but your gonna be in that range 99.7% of the time.
is maybe the operative word here range? :whip:

so but say you have this scenario.
maybe you play a session and you are two standard deviations to the bad side of the curve.
play another session, same thing, play another and again the same thing.
so, when do you start smelling something rotten in Denmark?
but i guess really one would want to take the total number of rounds for all those sessions and analyze the situation from that perspective as opposed to looking at it from separate sessions, sort of thing i guess?

 

[Kasi]

...my results are three standard deviations, i mean to me that's like say i lost or won some amount pretty high above or below my EV. well, to my mind results such as that should be deemed in the realm of relatively rare events sort of thing. but again to me, it seems paradoxical in a sense that yeah it might be rare but your gonna be in that range 99.7% of the time.

Well, in a way, maybe that's sort of the point lol. In one's mind, it may seem it should be a "relatively rare" event lol.
How would one mathematically define a "rare" event? Would you call 1 in 370 a "rare" event? Or a 1 in 740 chance event as "rare" or even maybe "relatively rare"?

So, expressing things in stan dev just allow one to define how "rare" any results actually are.

So like 3 ST is 99.7% - that means 3 times in 1000 one's results will be outside that range. Half of those 3 times they will be outside the range on the Luke Skywalker side, the other 1.5 times have joined the dark forces of Darth Vader.

I said 1 in 740 becasue that are the odds of finishing outside of 3 SD on the bad side.

To me 1 in 740 is not really that rare of an event and, in fact, can be counted upon to happen from time to time. You play 1500 rounds, probably one of those strings of 740 rounds will have results outside the 3 SD.

So, sure measure your results after each session and cumulatively as best as one can. But, if you finish at -2 SD 3 times in a row in equal-length sessions, your cumulative results will no doubt be approaching -3.5 to -4 SD by then.Covering risk like this is pretty much the point of choosing a roll, either lifetime or for a trip. You pick your risk vs time played and go from there.

I guess I feel 3 SD ain't really nothing because, in my internet play, on one software I was down -3.7 SD after 7500 hands but right at expected 35000 hands later. On another software, I finished +3 SD after 70000+ hands. On another I finished almost -3 SD after 8500 hands.

I don't know where one draws the line - guess that's a personal choice to some extent. At -4 SD, 1 in 32000, my paranoia kicks in a little and I see it as Divine Punishment for my sins though

 

[FLASH1296]

Advice & Suggestions

Originally Posted by monopoly
I am using the Hi-Lo system with the Illustrious 18 deviation. I normally play at the $25-$500 8-deck table with a penetration of 75%-80%... My betting spread is as follows for the according TC's:
-/0 = $25
+1 = $60
+2 = $150
+3 = $300
+4 = $390
+5/+ = $480

I would kindly like to ask, how much I should be making an hour roughly with this sort of betting spread, system and table type?

Some comments:

To understand what you "should be earning" ALL metrics will receive will be in reference to the Long Run.
In BJ the "long run" is long 'in extremis'.
Indeed it factual to say that you may never get to that point.
You may be playing a very beatable game and playing flawlessly - while you hemorrhage money and imagine that you are being cheated.
You can be playing tired and hungry, drunk and distracted and find yourself unable to lose.
So when a computer derives an "expectation" (e.v.) for 'your' game, it will be unlikely to bear any resemblance to what you are experiencing.

Forewarned is forearmed !

A. You NEVER bet odd amounts like $390. ONLY an amateur Card Counter would do that.
You never jump your bets in such an abrupt and extreme manner, e.g. like your jumping from $60 to $150. Gamblers' rarely more than double their bets.
By betting in such a rigid fashion you are making it that much easier for the casino to 'buttenhole' you as a Card Counter. Your top bet is a shade under the table maximum. That is way too obvious!
Meanwhile the "betting ramp" that you have outlined is unlikely to be anything approaching "OPTIMAL"

B. You are playing far too many hours. You are all-but-asking for trouble.
Even if surveillance runs a "skill test" and decides that your edge is insignificant, they will eventually 86' you for occupying a seat that could be taken by a ploppy who is quite obliging in leaving his money there.

C. You really must study. If I was you I would take a sabbatical from the tables while I study hard for a few weeks. Blackjack Attack, 3rd ed. is required reading. There are other texts that you can study later.

D. Where are you playing? If we know precisely what you are up against we will be much more enabled to assist you in avoiding disaster.

 

[FLASH1296]

Commentary

"monopoly"

You said: "I started counting cards ... August ... a loss of roughly $11,000 ... I had TCs as high as +7!"

Comments:

You lost about 22 Max bets. How many hours of play did that take ?

Unless your time spent at the tables was very short, that loss will be calculated to be completely normal (in the 'Gaussian' sense) and well within One Sigma (1 S.D.) for your spread.
Do you know the Standard Deviation for 'your' game ?
A typical S.D. for a game like yours can be as high as 40 units per hour.
That is $1,000 in a $25 game. But that is for ONE hour and for ONE Standard Deviation. Are you starting to see where this is leading?
When you get to the number of hours you played and you double or treble it to get to 2 and 3 S.D.'s with their concomitant probabilities, you will (probably) see that if you want to bet that kind of money then there is a significant element of RISk involved.
The subject of "Risk-of-Ruin" is an extremely important subject to fathom - especially as it relates to Bankroll and Bet Ramp ("spread" Considerations.

Here is the second point that really must be understood if you are going to gain maintain your emotional and financial equilibrium while you gain a more solid understanding of things beyond the fundamentals of Card Counting.

A +7 Hi-Lo True Count means that your edge over the casino was, depending on precise rules, about 1.5%. That is odds of 49.25% to 50.75% Interesting way to look at it? It is misleading in this context, because it has little o do with the probability of your winning your bets.

Off-the-top of the shoe your probability of winning a random hand is about 43%.
While you are salivating at your prospects of winning your upcoming bet of $490 with a TC = +7, your probability of winning has risen just a little. You are still an underdog to win your next bet.

The reason that you have put more money at risk is NOT because you are especially likely to win. It is solely because your bets are more effective.
You are more likely than normal to catch a Blackjack. You are more likely to receive a pair of face cards. Your Doubled Down hands are more likely than normal to be successful, as are your pair splits. The dealer's (overall) average bust probability will have hardly moved from its 'normal' figure of 28%.
These factors are important to the fundamental basis for Card Counting.

 

[FLASH1296]

Please inform us of the complete rules for the game you are playing.

I am hoping that it is not a "H17" game, where the dealer is obliged
to hit "soft 17's" - demoting this game from marginal to poor one.

 

[Kasi]

I'm certainly not lol.

Finishing down a net $11k would almost never be a 1 SD occurence no matter how many hands you played.

I hope you don't think, in your example, that after 10 hours 1 SD would be $10K.

And don't forget the SD range is measured how far from EV.

Also keep in mind that "when a computer derives an "expectation" (e.v.) for 'your' game, it will be unlikely to bear any resemblance to what you are experiencing." is sometimes because the game you actually play bears no resemblance to the game you told it to play.

How come when I disagree with something you say it seems you never say another word or ask a question about it? Which is fine of course. I guess I'll never know why you think what you do and vice-versa lol.

But, whatever, I like it lol. So what if we are both a couple of old dogs from 2 different universes lol.

 

[FLASH1296]

"I hope you don't think, in your example, that after 10 hours 1 SD would be $10K."

Obviously that would not be the case. The aggregate wagers for this fellow could reach a large sum though.

The way in which I read the post - he had dropped the $ over the course of an unspecified period of time that I inferred to be about a week.