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I don’t really get why you should start doubling on an 11 vs the dealers A when the count is 1. Both you and the dealer basicly have an “11” so the count favours both equally. But you only get 1 extra card while the dealer can keep on hitting. Shouldn’t that give the dealer a little edge over you?
I know its not that important but im just curious why this starts becomming a profitable play. Is it maybe because the dealer busts more often?
It does seem confusing. Here’s the trick. The dealer with an Ace up already has a face-down card, and we know that it is not a ten. In the normal US “peek” game, the dealer checks under the Ace to see if he has blackjack before play resumes. So we know that the first card added to his “11” in the form of his Ace upcard can not be the best possible draw of ten. The player’s starting hand of 11 still has the opportunity to draw a ten immediately to make 21.
Yes, the dealer’s hands also improve in high counts. But high counts favor the player more than the dealer because we get 3:2 on blackjack, and the dealer wins only even money. And we can stand on stiffs while the dealer must hit them. And we are more likely to succeed when we get a chance to double down in high counts, even though we will have fewer such opportunities. The game is full of subtleties.
Are you better off playing a single deck game with a 6:5 payout where you can count and increase your bet depending on the count or a six deck game with a 3:2 payout playing only basic strategy (not counting)? I can count a single deck perfectly but not a six deck shoe.
Because the starting house advantage is so much higher in single deck 6:5, it’s tough to spread enough to overcome the house edge. It takes a true count of around +5 just to break even. You’ll spend most of your time minimum-betting as a result, and those bets get expensive when blackjack pays only 6:5. Yes, you can beat this game with a big enough spread, but there are always easier games to beat.
Instead of just settling for basic strategy six-deck play, have you considered learning KO instead of Hi-Lo? It eliminates the need to convert to a true count.
Thanks for the advice, much appreciated. I am currently using KO. I’m fairly new to counting. With a single deck game, I can count, have two different conversations, and watch the casino TV. without losing the count. I guess I just need to practice more at home with a six deck shoe to be able to do the same. Thanks again.
Hello to everyone.last night i jump in a bj game that i was already counting with out playing.the numbers was very hot.rc +19 with 3 decks more to be played.on the table me and the dealer only.i make two bets of 20 euro each and the party begins.5 first card guess what !!! Faces and 10.so i have 20 and 20 and the dealer jas 10 and ….. he takes the ace!! Second round … again two boxes/bets of 15 euro and here we go again.i took 2 face cards in the first box second box an ace and an 8 and the dealer gets an ace !incurances he asks!!! And of course i put the bet.+3 tc i was calculate.and the hard time comes again … cards for the dealer again an ace (goodbye insurance)and an 9.a 9 !!!! 9 !!!! Total 21 !!! Just to loose and my bets and my incurance !!!that time i was so angry !!now i just see the maths.shit happens ?????
I play at a casino with the following rules (Quebec):
Table minimum is $20.
Natural pays 3 to 2
8 Decks
75% to 80% penetration
Dealer hits soft 17
Double any two cards allowed
Double after split allowed
Не сдаваться
Dealer peeks
Insurance available on dealer face up A
Splitting limited to a max of 4 times
No moves allowed after splitting Aces (stand,stand)
If dealer and player land a natural blackjack, the play is a push (Not sure on this last one, I may be wrong and they may still pay out 3 to 2.)
These are very typical 8-deck rules. I recommend either KO or Hi-Lo, with a spread of 1 to 12 or better. In the case of minimum bets, that would be $20 to $240, so just make it $20 to $250. You’ll need a bank of about $25K to safely use that spread. If you can’t afford that level, you will need to backcount if possible, or at a minimum leave in most negative counts.
These rules have been very discouraging! I’ll proceed with the Hi-Lo because I’ve been practising it with these rules for about a year now and I’ve developed a high degree of comfort keeping the running count and playing perfect basic strategy. Unfortunately, both playing sims at home (kitchen table style) and at the house, we seem to be on a downward & losing curve, but it’s difficult to judge because I don’t think we’ve reached the long run by far 😛
Luckily, I play with a team of 3 so back-counting might be viable 🙂 and the recommendation you’ve provided as far as bet spread and bank roll really puts things into perspective!
It’s too bad there’s not another table with different rules within 400KMs of where I live… the house we play at might have up to 3 different tables open at once but on the bright side, its a smaller casino and its a lot more calm than most.
Почему вы говорите людям следовать базовой стратегии, если они должны считать карты? Они не должны следовать простой таблице "хит-стенд-дабл-сплит", во многих записях должен быть порог. Например, вы удваиваете 10 против 10, если истинный счет больше 4, вы удваиваете 10 против А, если истинный счет больше 3, вы бьете 16 против 10, если счет 0 или отрицательный, стоите, если положительный, удваиваете 11 против А, если истинный счет положительный, не стоите, если 0 или отрицательный, и т.д. Я думаю, что непродуктивно учить эти вещи как фиксированные записи, это функции. Просто "базовая стратегия" - это значение этих функций, когда truecount равен 0. Важно узнать, насколько близки пороги к 0, по крайней мере, какие из них являются пограничными решениями. Во-первых, вы хотите, чтобы казино считало вас суеверным фруктовиком. Я постоянно так делаю: "Я знаю, что не должен, но я буду бить" (речь идет о попадании в 13 против 3, когда истинный счет ниже отрицательных 2 и 2/3) или "Ни за что не буду удваивать, у меня плохое предчувствие" (10 против 9, счет -2 или ниже), "Я сделаю это! Я не должен, но я сделаю это!" (сплит 9 против туза с истинным счетом больше 3). И самое забавное, что оптимальность не так уж сильно страдает, если вы не придерживаетесь порога в точности, так что, возможно, иногда вы будете делить 9 против туза, если истинный счет всего 2,5, а в другой раз, возможно, не будете, если он 3,5.
Ну же, это только первый урок. Все эти вариации стратегий будут рассмотрены в последующих уроках.
Я абсолютно рекомендую КАЖДОМУ игроку начать с изучения базовой стратегии, чтобы она стала автоматической. Вариации легко добавить позже, но вы ДОЛЖНЫ знать основы, прежде чем мутить воду.
You see there are two things here. Risk of ruin, and optimization of the expectation of the logarithm of your bankroll.
Bottom line: if you have less than 10 thousand dollars, do NOT use your bankroll in the calculation of your bet amount. Bet as if you had 10 thousand dollars. That’s under GOOD conditions. 15 dollar min bet on a 2-deck game, 5 dollar min bet on a 6-deck game. This depends on the exact conditions you’ll meet, of course.
The minimum bet completely ruins the assumptions you use to produce these results. Imagine if you only had 1000 dollars and the minimum bet was 25, 2 deck game. Chances are good you’re going to lose your money. BUT you’re definitely playing a losing game if you decide your optimal bet is 5 dollars (half a percent of your money) for every 1 the true count is past 1! (It’s actually more like 1.8, I just use 2). You won’t even bet more than the minimum except very occasionally if you do that, and you need to frequently bet more for the odds to be in your favor. It should stand to reason that’s a losing game there. There are two methods of play – you can minimize risk of ruin, which means betting as if you had about 10 thousand dollars no matter how little or much you have, and in that case, you can expect linear gains, but exponentially decreasing risk of ruin. OR – you shouldn’t do this unless you have more than 10k – your bet size is dependent on your bankroll, in which case you can expect exponential gains, and linearly decreasing risk of ruin as your bankroll grows. You have those 2 choices. Now me, I have little money, and I play to minimize risk of ruin. And let tell you the correct way of doing this, to do that. You are forced to bet the minimum no matter what. But what you should do is bet twice the minimum bet in addition to that for each 1 the truecount is past 2, in a 2 deck game, and thrice the minimum bet in addition to that for each 1 the truecount is past 2, in a 6 deck game.
So if the min bet is 25, in a 2 deck game, you bet 25 if the true count is -2, or -1, or 0, or 1, or 2. If the true count is 3, you bet 75. If it’s 4, you bet 125.
If the min bet is 5, in a 6 deck game, you bet 5 if the true count is -2, or -1, or 0, or 1, or 2. If the true count is 3, you bet 20. If it’s 4, you bet 35. If it’s 5, you bet 50.
That’s how you minimize risk of ruin. I have done extensive calculations to arrive at this result. The minimum bet completely ruins the simplicity of calculating kelly optimality, it makes risk of ruin something positive instead of 0, just like stock market broker fees ruin strategies that are strictly in proportional to your bankroll in the stock market, if you don’t have enough money, you need to make bigger bets than you would otherwise make, in either case.
Also, almost never leave in the middle of a shoe. You can do it occasionally, if you have a decent excuse, like you’ve been playing a while and it’s not unreasonable for you to leave and take a break. It’s the quickest way to be banned from a casino. That’s how I got banned from my first casino. You need to sit there and take your punishment. Continue betting the minimum, all the way through the shoe, no matter how negative the count gets. You can minimize your losses by memorizing the NEGATIVE decision thresholds. Like I can tell you, hit on hard 14 against 2, 3, 4, 5 if the count goes to -4, -5, -6, -7. Pray you never need to use that information. I actually HAVE. I remember, I hit on a hard 14 against a 5 once, and the next card was a 2, and I said “even I’m not that crazy” and I stood. The irony was that the 2 would have made the dealer bust though. But on average, I did the right thing.
Jennabenna поклонник в вашем сайте в течение длительного времени я знаю, что вы из той же области, что и я есть любой возможный способ вы могли бы встретиться молодой счетчик мы не несколько Молодые просто узнал все на моем собственном и действительно нужен кто-то, чтобы прийти ко мне было 4 операции на спине и я должен получить это вниз, чтобы заработать на жизнь У меня нет пенсии, мы просто длинная история, чтобы это тоже, но я люблю ваш сайт и что вариант, который вы даете людям, чтобы заработать на жизнь или компенсировать свой доход Я бы с нетерпением жду услышать от вас, и если вы не хотите встретиться со мной или показать мне, я бы понял, но я не готов платить
Вы, вероятно, надеетесь связаться с Гейм-мастером, но нажмите здесь чтобы ознакомиться с последней информацией о нем.
Что касается меня, то я нахожусь в Миссисипи, скоро стану Техасом. Однако, к сожалению, я не занимаюсь индивидуальным преподаванием.
Going to Vegas in Sept. I have basic strategy down. I need a counting system that I can manage and Hi/Lo isn’t it. I’ve tried 5/Ace. I’m interested in your program but honestly, I REALLY need to know what the most common table rules are for 5/10 min. tables before I invest in another program.
Yeah, but if you count then you win back the odds. 99% of black jack players don’t count cards. Very few people even know it’s possible. They believe you have to be an MIT student to count cards, but a high school education is all you really need.
I don’t really get why you should start doubling on an 11 vs the dealers A when the count is 1. Both you and the dealer basicly have an “11” so the count favours both equally. But you only get 1 extra card while the dealer can keep on hitting. Shouldn’t that give the dealer a little edge over you?
I know its not that important but im just curious why this starts becomming a profitable play. Is it maybe because the dealer busts more often?
Thanks and great work, love this site
It does seem confusing. Here’s the trick. The dealer with an Ace up already has a face-down card, and we know that it is not a ten. In the normal US “peek” game, the dealer checks under the Ace to see if he has blackjack before play resumes. So we know that the first card added to his “11” in the form of his Ace upcard can not be the best possible draw of ten. The player’s starting hand of 11 still has the opportunity to draw a ten immediately to make 21.
Oh now i get it. Thanks men know I can sleep peacefully again 🙂
Oh and also, as the count gets bigger the dealer starts getting more Blackjacks which beats a regular “21” right?
Yes, the dealer’s hands also improve in high counts. But high counts favor the player more than the dealer because we get 3:2 on blackjack, and the dealer wins only even money. And we can stand on stiffs while the dealer must hit them. And we are more likely to succeed when we get a chance to double down in high counts, even though we will have fewer such opportunities. The game is full of subtleties.
Are you better off playing a single deck game with a 6:5 payout where you can count and increase your bet depending on the count or a six deck game with a 3:2 payout playing only basic strategy (not counting)? I can count a single deck perfectly but not a six deck shoe.
Because the starting house advantage is so much higher in single deck 6:5, it’s tough to spread enough to overcome the house edge. It takes a true count of around +5 just to break even. You’ll spend most of your time minimum-betting as a result, and those bets get expensive when blackjack pays only 6:5. Yes, you can beat this game with a big enough spread, but there are always easier games to beat.
Instead of just settling for basic strategy six-deck play, have you considered learning KO instead of Hi-Lo? It eliminates the need to convert to a true count.
Thanks for the advice, much appreciated. I am currently using KO. I’m fairly new to counting. With a single deck game, I can count, have two different conversations, and watch the casino TV. without losing the count. I guess I just need to practice more at home with a six deck shoe to be able to do the same. Thanks again.
Hello to everyone.last night i jump in a bj game that i was already counting with out playing.the numbers was very hot.rc +19 with 3 decks more to be played.on the table me and the dealer only.i make two bets of 20 euro each and the party begins.5 first card guess what !!! Faces and 10.so i have 20 and 20 and the dealer jas 10 and ….. he takes the ace!! Second round … again two boxes/bets of 15 euro and here we go again.i took 2 face cards in the first box second box an ace and an 8 and the dealer gets an ace !incurances he asks!!! And of course i put the bet.+3 tc i was calculate.and the hard time comes again … cards for the dealer again an ace (goodbye insurance)and an 9.a 9 !!!! 9 !!!! Total 21 !!! Just to loose and my bets and my incurance !!!that time i was so angry !!now i just see the maths.shit happens ?????
Привет, Кен,
I play at a casino with the following rules (Quebec):
Table minimum is $20.
Natural pays 3 to 2
8 Decks
75% to 80% penetration
Dealer hits soft 17
Double any two cards allowed
Double after split allowed
Не сдаваться
Dealer peeks
Insurance available on dealer face up A
Splitting limited to a max of 4 times
No moves allowed after splitting Aces (stand,stand)
If dealer and player land a natural blackjack, the play is a push (Not sure on this last one, I may be wrong and they may still pay out 3 to 2.)
How do you recommend we beat this setup?
These are very typical 8-deck rules. I recommend either KO or Hi-Lo, with a spread of 1 to 12 or better. In the case of minimum bets, that would be $20 to $240, so just make it $20 to $250. You’ll need a bank of about $25K to safely use that spread. If you can’t afford that level, you will need to backcount if possible, or at a minimum leave in most negative counts.
Thanks for the reply, Ken!
These rules have been very discouraging! I’ll proceed with the Hi-Lo because I’ve been practising it with these rules for about a year now and I’ve developed a high degree of comfort keeping the running count and playing perfect basic strategy. Unfortunately, both playing sims at home (kitchen table style) and at the house, we seem to be on a downward & losing curve, but it’s difficult to judge because I don’t think we’ve reached the long run by far 😛
Luckily, I play with a team of 3 so back-counting might be viable 🙂 and the recommendation you’ve provided as far as bet spread and bank roll really puts things into perspective!
It’s too bad there’s not another table with different rules within 400KMs of where I live… the house we play at might have up to 3 different tables open at once but on the bright side, its a smaller casino and its a lot more calm than most.
Почему вы говорите людям следовать базовой стратегии, если они должны считать карты? Они не должны следовать простой таблице "хит-стенд-дабл-сплит", во многих записях должен быть порог. Например, вы удваиваете 10 против 10, если истинный счет больше 4, вы удваиваете 10 против А, если истинный счет больше 3, вы бьете 16 против 10, если счет 0 или отрицательный, стоите, если положительный, удваиваете 11 против А, если истинный счет положительный, не стоите, если 0 или отрицательный, и т.д. Я думаю, что непродуктивно учить эти вещи как фиксированные записи, это функции. Просто "базовая стратегия" - это значение этих функций, когда truecount равен 0. Важно узнать, насколько близки пороги к 0, по крайней мере, какие из них являются пограничными решениями. Во-первых, вы хотите, чтобы казино считало вас суеверным фруктовиком. Я постоянно так делаю: "Я знаю, что не должен, но я буду бить" (речь идет о попадании в 13 против 3, когда истинный счет ниже отрицательных 2 и 2/3) или "Ни за что не буду удваивать, у меня плохое предчувствие" (10 против 9, счет -2 или ниже), "Я сделаю это! Я не должен, но я сделаю это!" (сплит 9 против туза с истинным счетом больше 3). И самое забавное, что оптимальность не так уж сильно страдает, если вы не придерживаетесь порога в точности, так что, возможно, иногда вы будете делить 9 против туза, если истинный счет всего 2,5, а в другой раз, возможно, не будете, если он 3,5.
Ну же, это только первый урок. Все эти вариации стратегий будут рассмотрены в последующих уроках.
Я абсолютно рекомендую КАЖДОМУ игроку начать с изучения базовой стратегии, чтобы она стала автоматической. Вариации легко добавить позже, но вы ДОЛЖНЫ знать основы, прежде чем мутить воду.
You’re doing this wrong in principle.
You see there are two things here. Risk of ruin, and optimization of the expectation of the logarithm of your bankroll.
Bottom line: if you have less than 10 thousand dollars, do NOT use your bankroll in the calculation of your bet amount. Bet as if you had 10 thousand dollars. That’s under GOOD conditions. 15 dollar min bet on a 2-deck game, 5 dollar min bet on a 6-deck game. This depends on the exact conditions you’ll meet, of course.
The minimum bet completely ruins the assumptions you use to produce these results. Imagine if you only had 1000 dollars and the minimum bet was 25, 2 deck game. Chances are good you’re going to lose your money. BUT you’re definitely playing a losing game if you decide your optimal bet is 5 dollars (half a percent of your money) for every 1 the true count is past 1! (It’s actually more like 1.8, I just use 2). You won’t even bet more than the minimum except very occasionally if you do that, and you need to frequently bet more for the odds to be in your favor. It should stand to reason that’s a losing game there. There are two methods of play – you can minimize risk of ruin, which means betting as if you had about 10 thousand dollars no matter how little or much you have, and in that case, you can expect linear gains, but exponentially decreasing risk of ruin. OR – you shouldn’t do this unless you have more than 10k – your bet size is dependent on your bankroll, in which case you can expect exponential gains, and linearly decreasing risk of ruin as your bankroll grows. You have those 2 choices. Now me, I have little money, and I play to minimize risk of ruin. And let tell you the correct way of doing this, to do that. You are forced to bet the minimum no matter what. But what you should do is bet twice the minimum bet in addition to that for each 1 the truecount is past 2, in a 2 deck game, and thrice the minimum bet in addition to that for each 1 the truecount is past 2, in a 6 deck game.
So if the min bet is 25, in a 2 deck game, you bet 25 if the true count is -2, or -1, or 0, or 1, or 2. If the true count is 3, you bet 75. If it’s 4, you bet 125.
If the min bet is 5, in a 6 deck game, you bet 5 if the true count is -2, or -1, or 0, or 1, or 2. If the true count is 3, you bet 20. If it’s 4, you bet 35. If it’s 5, you bet 50.
That’s how you minimize risk of ruin. I have done extensive calculations to arrive at this result. The minimum bet completely ruins the simplicity of calculating kelly optimality, it makes risk of ruin something positive instead of 0, just like stock market broker fees ruin strategies that are strictly in proportional to your bankroll in the stock market, if you don’t have enough money, you need to make bigger bets than you would otherwise make, in either case.
Also, almost never leave in the middle of a shoe. You can do it occasionally, if you have a decent excuse, like you’ve been playing a while and it’s not unreasonable for you to leave and take a break. It’s the quickest way to be banned from a casino. That’s how I got banned from my first casino. You need to sit there and take your punishment. Continue betting the minimum, all the way through the shoe, no matter how negative the count gets. You can minimize your losses by memorizing the NEGATIVE decision thresholds. Like I can tell you, hit on hard 14 against 2, 3, 4, 5 if the count goes to -4, -5, -6, -7. Pray you never need to use that information. I actually HAVE. I remember, I hit on a hard 14 against a 5 once, and the next card was a 2, and I said “even I’m not that crazy” and I stood. The irony was that the 2 would have made the dealer bust though. But on average, I did the right thing.
Jennabenna поклонник в вашем сайте в течение длительного времени я знаю, что вы из той же области, что и я есть любой возможный способ вы могли бы встретиться молодой счетчик мы не несколько Молодые просто узнал все на моем собственном и действительно нужен кто-то, чтобы прийти ко мне было 4 операции на спине и я должен получить это вниз, чтобы заработать на жизнь У меня нет пенсии, мы просто длинная история, чтобы это тоже, но я люблю ваш сайт и что вариант, который вы даете людям, чтобы заработать на жизнь или компенсировать свой доход Я бы с нетерпением жду услышать от вас, и если вы не хотите встретиться со мной или показать мне, я бы понял, но я не готов платить
Вы, вероятно, надеетесь связаться с Гейм-мастером, но нажмите здесь чтобы ознакомиться с последней информацией о нем.
Что касается меня, то я нахожусь в Миссисипи, скоро стану Техасом. Однако, к сожалению, я не занимаюсь индивидуальным преподаванием.
Going to Vegas in Sept. I have basic strategy down. I need a counting system that I can manage and Hi/Lo isn’t it. I’ve tried 5/Ace. I’m interested in your program but honestly, I REALLY need to know what the most common table rules are for 5/10 min. tables before I invest in another program.
Yeah, but if you count then you win back the odds. 99% of black jack players don’t count cards. Very few people even know it’s possible. They believe you have to be an MIT student to count cards, but a high school education is all you really need.