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I have a question regarding the logic of these variations (and actually, card counting in general now that I think about it).
Say you have a hard 15 against the dealer’s 7. You say to stand if the count is above 10. The reasoning behind this is that with a high count, there is a much higher percentage that the next card is a high card and that you will bust. However, under this same logic, there is ALSO a very high percentage that the dealer’s hole card is a face card, since the hole card is unknown and is subject to the same probability as the rest of the deck. Meaning that there is a high chance that your 15 will lose to the dealer’s 7.
I know you said in a different comment not to focus on the “why”, but I’ve realized that the dealer’s hole card should be seriously considered with the count in mind. Do these indexes account for the hole card? Are there computer simulations or other data that demonstrate the validity of these indexes?
Also, quick unrelated follow-up question: Did you ever re-calculate the table in Lesson 9 about Standard Deviation? It was calculated using a flat $12 bet, not a spread. If you haven’t gotten to this yet, could you point me in the direction of some software or something that I could use to run simulations/calculations myself? I could save you some time and send you the results, if so.
All of these factors are included in the calculations for index numbers. You are right that in high counts the dealer is more likely to have pat 20. If he does, your decision to hit or stand is actually less important, because you could safely hit and still lose the hand. The same software I recommend for simulations (CVData from qfit.com) always allows you to verify all these kinds of things, and generate your own custom indexes.
Привет, Кен. Я играю в базовую стратегию уже много лет и начинаю учиться считать правильно. Я собираюсь в поездку в Коннектикут и буду играть в MS. В BSE сказано сдаваться на 16 против 10, я это понял, но там сказано оставаться, если не сдаваться. Я никогда не оставался на 16 против 10, действительно ли это математически правильно?
Спасибо,
Глен
Спасибо, Кен. Я прочитал статью и буду делать то, что говорит ваш BSE. Я просто хотел убедиться. Моя жена и друзья будут странно смотреть на меня, когда увидят эти пьесы.
Мне нравится ваш сайт,
Еще раз спасибо,
Глен
Удачи! Помните, что советы по 16vT основаны на игре, которая предлагает сдачу. Если сдачи нет, то бейте все двухкарточные 16 против дилерской десятки, и вы можете стоять на любых трех или более картах 16 против десятки.
Привет еще раз, Кен.
Я использовал ваш тренер со сдачей в качестве опции для тренировки BS и собирался также немного потренироваться в подсчете, но при сдаче он не показывает дырявую карту дилера. Есть ли способ заставить его показывать дырявую карту дилера или я должен считать ее как -1 или 0?
Я также не уверен, H17 это или S17, но если это H17, то там говорится, что нужно сдаться или остаться с 17 против туза. Хорошо, я никогда не оставался с 16 против 10 и никогда не сдавался с 17. Можете ли вы помочь мне понять эти две игры?
Еще раз спасибо,
Глен
Что касается 16vT, см. статью, на которую я дал ссылку в своем последнем ответе.
Что касается сдачи 17vA (правильно, когда дилер бьет мягкие 17), то 17 против туза - очень слабая рука. Она становится еще хуже, когда дилер бьет мягкие 17, потому что он не может перевернуть 6 для немедленного пуша на руку. Этого достаточно, чтобы немного изменить ситуацию в пользу сдачи, а не стояния. Опять же, это касается только игры H17. В игре S17 вы должны стоять с 17vA.
I’d really like to buy your cards, but you don’t have the specific card I need… Do you know the indices for a 4D, H17, DAS, No surrender, Peek, game? If not, do you know where I could find them (without buying $200 software….)?
Because KO is an unbalanced count, your ability to use indexes is sharply reduced. Really, if you want to use indexes with KO, they need to be generated exactly for your game. Changing the penetration will change the indexes. And you always have less accuracy for strategy variation when you don’t have a true count to use for it. KO is powerful and simple, but this is one of the downsides.
There is a new version of the KO book coming out soon. Perhaps it will talk more about this.
Just want to be sure I understand . . . it is possible in a game with only 75% penetration (standard deck and half cut out from a six deck shoe) to have a true-count north of +9, right. It doesn’t happen that often but there have definitely been times when 1/2 of the six deck shoe has been cashed and the running count is 20 thus making the true-count – if I understand your teachings correctly – +10, right?
I have been counting for about three years now using this course and made about 13K. Unfortunately, I have been banned from four casinos. Admittedly, I am constantly helping others and more or less always make the minimum bet . . . no fanny-pack, either.
I understand that you don’t know which card the clueless guy is going to draw. But people don’t usually get upset when someone does a crazy movie like hitting a 16 vs a dealer 6 until they see the outcome. I’ve seen players keep their mouth shut and say yay you saved the table and you killed the table. Me personally if someone does something like that, I just look to see if that mistake effected me that hand. Even if it does I don’t say anything but it just sucks to know you would have won a hand if someone played basic strat. This is all hindsight I’m not talking about before the outcome.
And I claim I looked at your message before deciding! Oops, my mistake!
Here is a run for H17:
$10 to $120 spread:
75% pen, Win per 100 hands: $16, RoR: 32%
83% pen, Win per 100 hands: $22, RoR: 21%
$15 to $180 spread:
75% pen, Win per 100 hands: $24, RoR: 47%
83% pen, Win per 100 hands: $33, RoR: 36%
AND, I realize now that I posted NDAS numbers before.
I corrected the numbers in the S17 reply. They are now DAS as intended.
I have a question regarding the logic of these variations (and actually, card counting in general now that I think about it).
Say you have a hard 15 against the dealer’s 7. You say to stand if the count is above 10. The reasoning behind this is that with a high count, there is a much higher percentage that the next card is a high card and that you will bust. However, under this same logic, there is ALSO a very high percentage that the dealer’s hole card is a face card, since the hole card is unknown and is subject to the same probability as the rest of the deck. Meaning that there is a high chance that your 15 will lose to the dealer’s 7.
I know you said in a different comment not to focus on the “why”, but I’ve realized that the dealer’s hole card should be seriously considered with the count in mind. Do these indexes account for the hole card? Are there computer simulations or other data that demonstrate the validity of these indexes?
Also, quick unrelated follow-up question: Did you ever re-calculate the table in Lesson 9 about Standard Deviation? It was calculated using a flat $12 bet, not a spread. If you haven’t gotten to this yet, could you point me in the direction of some software or something that I could use to run simulations/calculations myself? I could save you some time and send you the results, if so.
All of these factors are included in the calculations for index numbers. You are right that in high counts the dealer is more likely to have pat 20. If he does, your decision to hit or stand is actually less important, because you could safely hit and still lose the hand. The same software I recommend for simulations (CVData from qfit.com) always allows you to verify all these kinds of things, and generate your own custom indexes.
For a visual example, see https://www.card-counting.com/cvcxonlineviewer3.htm
So far, I have not had time to rework Lesson 9 and it’s SD information. My sole focus right now is the new version of the trainer.
Привет, Кен. Я играю в базовую стратегию уже много лет и начинаю учиться считать правильно. Я собираюсь в поездку в Коннектикут и буду играть в MS. В BSE сказано сдаваться на 16 против 10, я это понял, но там сказано оставаться, если не сдаваться. Я никогда не оставался на 16 против 10, действительно ли это математически правильно?
Спасибо,
Глен
Это странная ситуация с графиком стратегии, которая создает больше писем, чем любая другая здесь.
См. 16vT: RS. WTF?
Спасибо, Кен. Я прочитал статью и буду делать то, что говорит ваш BSE. Я просто хотел убедиться. Моя жена и друзья будут странно смотреть на меня, когда увидят эти пьесы.
Мне нравится ваш сайт,
Еще раз спасибо,
Глен
Удачи! Помните, что советы по 16vT основаны на игре, которая предлагает сдачу. Если сдачи нет, то бейте все двухкарточные 16 против дилерской десятки, и вы можете стоять на любых трех или более картах 16 против десятки.
Привет еще раз, Кен.
Я использовал ваш тренер со сдачей в качестве опции для тренировки BS и собирался также немного потренироваться в подсчете, но при сдаче он не показывает дырявую карту дилера. Есть ли способ заставить его показывать дырявую карту дилера или я должен считать ее как -1 или 0?
Я также не уверен, H17 это или S17, но если это H17, то там говорится, что нужно сдаться или остаться с 17 против туза. Хорошо, я никогда не оставался с 16 против 10 и никогда не сдавался с 17. Можете ли вы помочь мне понять эти две игры?
Еще раз спасибо,
Глен
Что касается 16vT, см. статью, на которую я дал ссылку в своем последнем ответе.
Что касается сдачи 17vA (правильно, когда дилер бьет мягкие 17), то 17 против туза - очень слабая рука. Она становится еще хуже, когда дилер бьет мягкие 17, потому что он не может перевернуть 6 для немедленного пуша на руку. Этого достаточно, чтобы немного изменить ситуацию в пользу сдачи, а не стояния. Опять же, это касается только игры H17. В игре S17 вы должны стоять с 17vA.
That makes sense. Thanks for the quick response. Love your website
I’d really like to buy your cards, but you don’t have the specific card I need… Do you know the indices for a 4D, H17, DAS, No surrender, Peek, game? If not, do you know where I could find them (without buying $200 software….)?
Whoops, forgot to mention the key difference: I use KO, not Hi-Lo
Because KO is an unbalanced count, your ability to use indexes is sharply reduced. Really, if you want to use indexes with KO, they need to be generated exactly for your game. Changing the penetration will change the indexes. And you always have less accuracy for strategy variation when you don’t have a true count to use for it. KO is powerful and simple, but this is one of the downsides.
There is a new version of the KO book coming out soon. Perhaps it will talk more about this.
Thanks for that. I’ll just use the HiLo system in that case and get the cards. It’s worth it just to support this site!
Question: when I buy them, can you send them electronically or do I have to wait for them in the mail?
The cards are only available in physical form, and I have moved all distribution to Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982119178/?tag=theblackjacbasic
Just want to be sure I understand . . . it is possible in a game with only 75% penetration (standard deck and half cut out from a six deck shoe) to have a true-count north of +9, right. It doesn’t happen that often but there have definitely been times when 1/2 of the six deck shoe has been cashed and the running count is 20 thus making the true-count – if I understand your teachings correctly – +10, right?
I have been counting for about three years now using this course and made about 13K. Unfortunately, I have been banned from four casinos. Admittedly, I am constantly helping others and more or less always make the minimum bet . . . no fanny-pack, either.
minimum bet a beginning of new shoe
I understand that you don’t know which card the clueless guy is going to draw. But people don’t usually get upset when someone does a crazy movie like hitting a 16 vs a dealer 6 until they see the outcome. I’ve seen players keep their mouth shut and say yay you saved the table and you killed the table. Me personally if someone does something like that, I just look to see if that mistake effected me that hand. Even if it does I don’t say anything but it just sucks to know you would have won a hand if someone played basic strat. This is all hindsight I’m not talking about before the outcome.
And I claim I looked at your message before deciding! Oops, my mistake!
Here is a run for H17:
$10 to $120 spread:
75% pen, Win per 100 hands: $16, RoR: 32%
83% pen, Win per 100 hands: $22, RoR: 21%
$15 to $180 spread:
75% pen, Win per 100 hands: $24, RoR: 47%
83% pen, Win per 100 hands: $33, RoR: 36%
AND, I realize now that I posted NDAS numbers before.
I corrected the numbers in the S17 reply. They are now DAS as intended.