Blackjack Dealer Outcome Probabilities
The dealer outcome probability charts on this page can be helpful in determining
which of two tournament strategies is preferable. The values in these charts were calculated
using a combinatorial analysis from a full deck after removing only the dealer's upcard.
How to use the charts:
First, choose the correct chart as follows:
- 1 Deck, Dealer stands on all 17s
- 1 Deck, Dealer hits soft 17
- 2 Decks, Dealer stands on all 17s
- 2 Decks, Dealer hits soft 17
- 4 Decks, Dealer stands on all 17s
- 4 Decks, Dealer hits soft 17
- 6 Decks, Dealer stands on all 17s
- 6 Decks, Dealer hits soft 17
- 8 Decks, Dealer stands on all 17s
- 8 Decks, Dealer hits soft 17
- Infinite Deck, Dealer stands on all 17s
- Infinite Deck, Dealer hits soft 17
Then, look up the dealer upcard across the top, and read down the column to
see the probability of each dealer outcome.
The probabilities of each outcome other than Blackjack assume that the
dealer has checked the hole card and did not have blackjack. (Therefore, the
columns under dealer Ten and dealer Ace add up to more than 100%. The rows
other than blackjack add up to 100%.)
For example, in a 1D S17 game, if the dealer shows a Ten card up, he'll have a
blackjack 7.84% of the time. Now, after he checks and does not have
blackjack, he'll make a final total of twenty 35.69% of the time.
| Single Deck: Dealer stands on all 17s |
|---|
| Outcome |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
7.84% |
31.37% |
| Bust |
35.30% |
37.56% |
40.28% |
42.89% |
42.08% |
25.99% |
23.86% |
23.34% |
23.25% |
16.98% |
| 17 |
13.90% |
13.03% |
13.10% |
11.97% |
16.69% |
37.23% |
13.09% |
12.19% |
12.42% |
18.38% |
| 18 |
13.18% |
13.09% |
11.42% |
12.35% |
10.65% |
13.86% |
36.30% |
10.39% |
12.25% |
19.09% |
| 19 |
13.18% |
12.38% |
12.07% |
11.69% |
10.72% |
7.73% |
12.94% |
35.74% |
12.44% |
18.87% |
| 20 |
12.39% |
12.33% |
11.63% |
10.47% |
10.07% |
7.89% |
6.83% |
12.23% |
35.69% |
19.17% |
| 21 |
12.05% |
11.60% |
11.51% |
10.63% |
9.79% |
7.30% |
6.98% |
6.11% |
3.96% |
7.51% |
| Single Deck: Dealer hits soft 17 |
|---|
| Outcome |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
7.84% |
31.37% |
| Bust |
35.63% |
37.81% |
40.58% |
43.00% |
43.78% |
25.99% |
23.86% |
23.34% |
23.25% |
20.46% |
| 17 |
12.98% |
12.35% |
12.28% |
11.67% |
11.61% |
37.23% |
13.09% |
12.19% |
12.42% |
8.18% |
| 18 |
13.31% |
13.19% |
11.54% |
12.38% |
11.38% |
13.86% |
36.30% |
10.39% |
12.25% |
20.54% |
| 19 |
13.32% |
12.50% |
12.19% |
11.74% |
11.61% |
7.73% |
12.94% |
35.74% |
12.44% |
20.62% |
| 20 |
12.56% |
12.42% |
11.78% |
10.52% |
10.96% |
7.89% |
6.83% |
12.23% |
35.69% |
20.95% |
| 21 |
12.20% |
11.73% |
11.63% |
10.69% |
10.67% |
7.30% |
6.98% |
6.11% |
3.96% |
9.26% |
| Double Deck: Dealer stands on all 17s |
|---|
| Outcome |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
7.77% |
31.07% |
| Bust |
35.33% |
37.48% |
39.85% |
42.25% |
42.21% |
26.11% |
24.16% |
23.09% |
23.11% |
16.81% |
| 17 |
13.94% |
13.28% |
13.07% |
12.10% |
16.62% |
37.05% |
12.97% |
12.09% |
12.24% |
18.64% |
| 18 |
13.33% |
13.07% |
12.02% |
12.28% |
10.62% |
13.82% |
36.12% |
11.20% |
12.16% |
18.99% |
| 19 |
13.07% |
12.46% |
12.10% |
11.73% |
10.67% |
7.80% |
12.90% |
35.41% |
12.25% |
18.89% |
| 20 |
12.40% |
12.18% |
11.64% |
10.90% |
10.12% |
7.88% |
6.89% |
12.11% |
36.39% |
19.03% |
| 21 |
11.93% |
11.54% |
11.31% |
10.73% |
9.75% |
7.34% |
6.96% |
6.10% |
3.84% |
7.65% |
| Double Deck: Dealer hits soft 17 |
|---|
| Outcome |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
7.77% |
31.07% |
| Bust |
35.65% |
37.75% |
40.13% |
42.37% |
43.88% |
26.11% |
24.16% |
23.09% |
23.11% |
20.26% |
| 17 |
12.99% |
12.50% |
12.26% |
11.75% |
11.55% |
37.05% |
12.97% |
12.09% |
12.24% |
8.24% |
| 18 |
13.48% |
13.19% |
12.15% |
12.33% |
11.42% |
13.82% |
36.12% |
11.20% |
12.16% |
20.61% |
| 19 |
13.22% |
12.59% |
12.23% |
11.79% |
11.55% |
7.80% |
12.90% |
35.41% |
12.25% |
20.65% |
| 20 |
12.56% |
12.30% |
11.78% |
10.96% |
11.00% |
7.88% |
6.89% |
12.11% |
36.39% |
20.81% |
| 21 |
12.08% |
11.68% |
11.45% |
10.79% |
10.62% |
7.34% |
6.96% |
6.10% |
3.84% |
9.43% |
| 4 Decks: Dealer stands on all 17s |
|---|
| Outcome |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
7.73% |
30.92% |
| Bust |
35.34% |
37.43% |
39.65% |
41.94% |
42.27% |
26.17% |
24.32% |
22.97% |
23.05% |
16.73% |
| 17 |
13.96% |
13.39% |
13.06% |
12.16% |
16.58% |
36.95% |
12.91% |
12.05% |
12.16% |
18.76% |
| 18 |
13.41% |
13.06% |
12.31% |
12.25% |
10.62% |
13.80% |
36.03% |
11.60% |
12.12% |
18.94% |
| 19 |
13.02% |
12.51% |
12.12% |
11.75% |
10.65% |
7.83% |
12.88% |
35.24% |
12.16% |
18.89% |
| 20 |
12.40% |
12.11% |
11.64% |
11.11% |
10.15% |
7.87% |
6.91% |
12.06% |
36.73% |
18.96% |
| 21 |
11.86% |
11.50% |
11.22% |
10.78% |
9.73% |
7.37% |
6.95% |
6.09% |
3.79% |
7.72% |
| 4 Decks: Dealer hits soft 17 |
|---|
| Outcome |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
7.73% |
30.92% |
| Bust |
35.66% |
37.71% |
39.92% |
42.06% |
43.91% |
26.17% |
24.32% |
22.97% |
23.05% |
20.16% |
| 17 |
13.00% |
12.57% |
12.25% |
11.80% |
11.52% |
36.95% |
12.91% |
12.05% |
12.16% |
8.27% |
| 18 |
13.57% |
13.19% |
12.44% |
12.31% |
11.45% |
13.80% |
36.03% |
11.60% |
12.12% |
20.65% |
| 19 |
13.18% |
12.65% |
12.26% |
11.81% |
11.51% |
7.83% |
12.88% |
35.24% |
12.16% |
20.67% |
| 20 |
12.57% |
12.24% |
11.78% |
11.17% |
11.01% |
7.87% |
6.91% |
12.06% |
36.73% |
20.75% |
| 21 |
12.02% |
11.65% |
11.35% |
10.84% |
10.60% |
7.37% |
6.95% |
6.09% |
3.79% |
9.50% |
| 6 Decks: Dealer stands on all 17s |
|---|
| Outcome |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
7.72% |
30.87% |
| Bust |
35.35% |
37.42% |
39.58% |
41.84% |
42.28% |
26.19% |
24.37% |
22.92% |
23.02% |
16.70% |
| 17 |
13.97% |
13.43% |
13.06% |
12.18% |
16.57% |
36.92% |
12.89% |
12.03% |
12.13% |
18.81% |
| 18 |
13.44% |
13.05% |
12.41% |
12.24% |
10.62% |
13.79% |
36.00% |
11.73% |
12.10% |
18.92% |
| 19 |
13.00% |
12.52% |
12.13% |
11.76% |
10.64% |
7.84% |
12.87% |
35.19% |
12.13% |
18.89% |
| 20 |
12.40% |
12.08% |
11.64% |
11.18% |
10.16% |
7.87% |
6.92% |
12.04% |
36.84% |
18.94% |
| 21 |
11.84% |
11.49% |
11.19% |
10.79% |
9.73% |
7.38% |
6.95% |
6.09% |
3.77% |
7.74% |
| 6 Decks: Dealer hits soft 17 |
|---|
| Outcome |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
7.72% |
30.87% |
| Bust |
35.67% |
37.70% |
39.85% |
41.96% |
43.93% |
26.19% |
24.37% |
22.92% |
23.02% |
20.13% |
| 17 |
13.01% |
12.59% |
12.25% |
11.81% |
11.51% |
36.92% |
12.89% |
12.03% |
12.13% |
8.28% |
| 18 |
13.60% |
13.19% |
12.54% |
12.30% |
11.46% |
13.79% |
36.00% |
11.73% |
12.10% |
20.66% |
| 19 |
13.16% |
12.67% |
12.26% |
11.82% |
11.50% |
7.84% |
12.87% |
35.19% |
12.13% |
20.68% |
| 20 |
12.57% |
12.22% |
11.78% |
11.24% |
11.02% |
7.87% |
6.92% |
12.04% |
36.84% |
20.73% |
| 21 |
12.00% |
11.64% |
11.32% |
10.86% |
10.59% |
7.38% |
6.95% |
6.09% |
3.77% |
9.53% |
| 8 Decks: Dealer stands on all 17s |
|---|
| Outcome |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
7.71% |
30.84% |
| Bust |
35.35% |
37.41% |
39.55% |
41.79% |
42.29% |
26.20% |
24.40% |
22.90% |
23.01% |
16.69% |
| 17 |
13.97% |
13.45% |
13.05% |
12.19% |
16.56% |
36.90% |
12.88% |
12.02% |
12.11% |
18.83% |
| 18 |
13.45% |
13.05% |
12.45% |
12.24% |
10.62% |
13.79% |
35.98% |
11.80% |
12.09% |
18.92% |
| 19 |
12.99% |
12.53% |
12.13% |
11.76% |
10.64% |
7.85% |
12.87% |
35.16% |
12.12% |
18.89% |
| 20 |
12.40% |
12.07% |
11.65% |
11.21% |
10.16% |
7.87% |
6.93% |
12.03% |
36.90% |
18.93% |
| 21 |
11.83% |
11.49% |
11.17% |
10.80% |
9.72% |
7.39% |
6.95% |
6.09% |
3.76% |
7.75% |
| 8 Decks: Dealer hits soft 17 |
|---|
| Outcome |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
7.71% |
30.84% |
| Bust |
35.67% |
37.69% |
39.81% |
41.91% |
43.93% |
26.20% |
24.40% |
22.90% |
23.01% |
20.11% |
| 17 |
13.01% |
12.60% |
12.24% |
11.82% |
11.50% |
36.90% |
12.88% |
12.02% |
12.11% |
8.29% |
| 18 |
13.61% |
13.19% |
12.59% |
12.30% |
11.46% |
13.79% |
35.98% |
11.80% |
12.09% |
20.67% |
| 19 |
13.15% |
12.68% |
12.27% |
11.83% |
11.50% |
7.85% |
12.87% |
35.16% |
12.12% |
20.68% |
| 20 |
12.57% |
12.21% |
11.78% |
11.28% |
11.02% |
7.87% |
6.93% |
12.03% |
36.90% |
20.72% |
| 21 |
11.99% |
11.63% |
11.31% |
10.87% |
10.58% |
7.39% |
6.95% |
6.09% |
3.76% |
9.54% |
| Infinite Deck: Dealer stands on all 17s |
|---|
| Outcome |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
7.69% |
30.77% |
| Bust |
35.36% |
37.39% |
39.45% |
41.64% |
42.32% |
26.23% |
24.47% |
22.84% |
22.98% |
16.65% |
| 17 |
13.98% |
13.50% |
13.05% |
12.23% |
16.54% |
36.86% |
12.86% |
12.00% |
12.07% |
18.89% |
| 18 |
13.49% |
13.05% |
12.59% |
12.23% |
10.63% |
13.78% |
35.93% |
12.00% |
12.07% |
18.89% |
| 19 |
12.97% |
12.56% |
12.14% |
11.77% |
10.63% |
7.86% |
12.86% |
35.08% |
12.07% |
18.89% |
| 20 |
12.40% |
12.03% |
11.65% |
11.31% |
10.17% |
7.86% |
6.94% |
12.00% |
37.07% |
18.89% |
| 21 |
11.80% |
11.47% |
11.12% |
10.82% |
9.72% |
7.41% |
6.94% |
6.08% |
3.74% |
7.78% |
| Infinite Deck: Dealer hits soft 17 |
|---|
| Outcome |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Ten |
Ace |
| BJ |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
7.69% |
30.77% |
| Bust |
35.67% |
37.67% |
39.71% |
41.77% |
43.95% |
26.23% |
24.47% |
22.84% |
22.98% |
20.07% |
| 17 |
13.01% |
12.63% |
12.24% |
11.84% |
11.48% |
36.86% |
12.86% |
12.00% |
12.07% |
8.30% |
| 18 |
13.65% |
13.20% |
12.73% |
12.29% |
11.48% |
13.78% |
35.93% |
12.00% |
12.07% |
20.69% |
| 19 |
13.13% |
12.71% |
12.28% |
11.84% |
11.48% |
7.86% |
12.86% |
35.08% |
12.07% |
20.69% |
| 20 |
12.57% |
12.18% |
11.79% |
11.38% |
11.03% |
7.86% |
6.94% |
12.00% |
37.07% |
20.69% |
| 21 |
11.96% |
11.62% |
11.26% |
10.89% |
10.57% |
7.41% |
6.94% |
6.08% |
3.74% |
9.57% |
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