Blackjack Dealer Outcome Probabilities

The dealer outcome probability charts on this page can be helpful in determining which of two tournament strategies is preferable. The values in these charts were calculated using a combinatorial analysis from a full deck after removing only the dealer's upcard.

How to use the charts:

First, choose the correct chart as follows:

Then, look up the dealer upcard across the top, and read down the column to see the probability of each dealer outcome.
The probabilities of each outcome other than Blackjack assume that the dealer has checked the hole card and did not have blackjack. (Therefore, the columns under dealer Ten and dealer Ace add up to more than 100%. The rows other than blackjack add up to 100%.)

For example, in a 1D S17 game, if the dealer shows a Ten card up, he'll have a blackjack 7.84% of the time. Now, after he checks and does not have blackjack, he'll make a final total of twenty 35.69% of the time.


Single Deck: Dealer stands on all 17s
Outcome 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ten Ace
BJ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 7.84% 31.37%
Bust 35.30% 37.56% 40.28% 42.89% 42.08% 25.99% 23.86% 23.34% 23.25% 16.98%
17 13.90% 13.03% 13.10% 11.97% 16.69% 37.23% 13.09% 12.19% 12.42% 18.38%
18 13.18% 13.09% 11.42% 12.35% 10.65% 13.86% 36.30% 10.39% 12.25% 19.09%
19 13.18% 12.38% 12.07% 11.69% 10.72% 7.73% 12.94% 35.74% 12.44% 18.87%
20 12.39% 12.33% 11.63% 10.47% 10.07% 7.89% 6.83% 12.23% 35.69% 19.17%
21 12.05% 11.60% 11.51% 10.63% 9.79% 7.30% 6.98% 6.11% 3.96% 7.51%
Single Deck: Dealer hits soft 17
Outcome 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ten Ace
BJ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 7.84% 31.37%
Bust 35.63% 37.81% 40.58% 43.00% 43.78% 25.99% 23.86% 23.34% 23.25% 20.46%
17 12.98% 12.35% 12.28% 11.67% 11.61% 37.23% 13.09% 12.19% 12.42% 8.18%
18 13.31% 13.19% 11.54% 12.38% 11.38% 13.86% 36.30% 10.39% 12.25% 20.54%
19 13.32% 12.50% 12.19% 11.74% 11.61% 7.73% 12.94% 35.74% 12.44% 20.62%
20 12.56% 12.42% 11.78% 10.52% 10.96% 7.89% 6.83% 12.23% 35.69% 20.95%
21 12.20% 11.73% 11.63% 10.69% 10.67% 7.30% 6.98% 6.11% 3.96% 9.26%
Double Deck: Dealer stands on all 17s
Outcome 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ten Ace
BJ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 7.77% 31.07%
Bust 35.33% 37.48% 39.85% 42.25% 42.21% 26.11% 24.16% 23.09% 23.11% 16.81%
17 13.94% 13.28% 13.07% 12.10% 16.62% 37.05% 12.97% 12.09% 12.24% 18.64%
18 13.33% 13.07% 12.02% 12.28% 10.62% 13.82% 36.12% 11.20% 12.16% 18.99%
19 13.07% 12.46% 12.10% 11.73% 10.67% 7.80% 12.90% 35.41% 12.25% 18.89%
20 12.40% 12.18% 11.64% 10.90% 10.12% 7.88% 6.89% 12.11% 36.39% 19.03%
21 11.93% 11.54% 11.31% 10.73% 9.75% 7.34% 6.96% 6.10% 3.84% 7.65%
Double Deck: Dealer hits soft 17
Outcome 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ten Ace
BJ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 7.77% 31.07%
Bust 35.65% 37.75% 40.13% 42.37% 43.88% 26.11% 24.16% 23.09% 23.11% 20.26%
17 12.99% 12.50% 12.26% 11.75% 11.55% 37.05% 12.97% 12.09% 12.24% 8.24%
18 13.48% 13.19% 12.15% 12.33% 11.42% 13.82% 36.12% 11.20% 12.16% 20.61%
19 13.22% 12.59% 12.23% 11.79% 11.55% 7.80% 12.90% 35.41% 12.25% 20.65%
20 12.56% 12.30% 11.78% 10.96% 11.00% 7.88% 6.89% 12.11% 36.39% 20.81%
21 12.08% 11.68% 11.45% 10.79% 10.62% 7.34% 6.96% 6.10% 3.84% 9.43%
4 Decks: Dealer stands on all 17s
Outcome 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ten Ace
BJ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 7.73% 30.92%
Bust 35.34% 37.43% 39.65% 41.94% 42.27% 26.17% 24.32% 22.97% 23.05% 16.73%
17 13.96% 13.39% 13.06% 12.16% 16.58% 36.95% 12.91% 12.05% 12.16% 18.76%
18 13.41% 13.06% 12.31% 12.25% 10.62% 13.80% 36.03% 11.60% 12.12% 18.94%
19 13.02% 12.51% 12.12% 11.75% 10.65% 7.83% 12.88% 35.24% 12.16% 18.89%
20 12.40% 12.11% 11.64% 11.11% 10.15% 7.87% 6.91% 12.06% 36.73% 18.96%
21 11.86% 11.50% 11.22% 10.78% 9.73% 7.37% 6.95% 6.09% 3.79% 7.72%
4 Decks: Dealer hits soft 17
Outcome 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ten Ace
BJ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 7.73% 30.92%
Bust 35.66% 37.71% 39.92% 42.06% 43.91% 26.17% 24.32% 22.97% 23.05% 20.16%
17 13.00% 12.57% 12.25% 11.80% 11.52% 36.95% 12.91% 12.05% 12.16% 8.27%
18 13.57% 13.19% 12.44% 12.31% 11.45% 13.80% 36.03% 11.60% 12.12% 20.65%
19 13.18% 12.65% 12.26% 11.81% 11.51% 7.83% 12.88% 35.24% 12.16% 20.67%
20 12.57% 12.24% 11.78% 11.17% 11.01% 7.87% 6.91% 12.06% 36.73% 20.75%
21 12.02% 11.65% 11.35% 10.84% 10.60% 7.37% 6.95% 6.09% 3.79% 9.50%
6 Decks: Dealer stands on all 17s
Outcome 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ten Ace
BJ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 7.72% 30.87%
Bust 35.35% 37.42% 39.58% 41.84% 42.28% 26.19% 24.37% 22.92% 23.02% 16.70%
17 13.97% 13.43% 13.06% 12.18% 16.57% 36.92% 12.89% 12.03% 12.13% 18.81%
18 13.44% 13.05% 12.41% 12.24% 10.62% 13.79% 36.00% 11.73% 12.10% 18.92%
19 13.00% 12.52% 12.13% 11.76% 10.64% 7.84% 12.87% 35.19% 12.13% 18.89%
20 12.40% 12.08% 11.64% 11.18% 10.16% 7.87% 6.92% 12.04% 36.84% 18.94%
21 11.84% 11.49% 11.19% 10.79% 9.73% 7.38% 6.95% 6.09% 3.77% 7.74%
6 Decks: Dealer hits soft 17
Outcome 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ten Ace
BJ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 7.72% 30.87%
Bust 35.67% 37.70% 39.85% 41.96% 43.93% 26.19% 24.37% 22.92% 23.02% 20.13%
17 13.01% 12.59% 12.25% 11.81% 11.51% 36.92% 12.89% 12.03% 12.13% 8.28%
18 13.60% 13.19% 12.54% 12.30% 11.46% 13.79% 36.00% 11.73% 12.10% 20.66%
19 13.16% 12.67% 12.26% 11.82% 11.50% 7.84% 12.87% 35.19% 12.13% 20.68%
20 12.57% 12.22% 11.78% 11.24% 11.02% 7.87% 6.92% 12.04% 36.84% 20.73%
21 12.00% 11.64% 11.32% 10.86% 10.59% 7.38% 6.95% 6.09% 3.77% 9.53%
8 Decks: Dealer stands on all 17s
Outcome 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ten Ace
BJ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 7.71% 30.84%
Bust 35.35% 37.41% 39.55% 41.79% 42.29% 26.20% 24.40% 22.90% 23.01% 16.69%
17 13.97% 13.45% 13.05% 12.19% 16.56% 36.90% 12.88% 12.02% 12.11% 18.83%
18 13.45% 13.05% 12.45% 12.24% 10.62% 13.79% 35.98% 11.80% 12.09% 18.92%
19 12.99% 12.53% 12.13% 11.76% 10.64% 7.85% 12.87% 35.16% 12.12% 18.89%
20 12.40% 12.07% 11.65% 11.21% 10.16% 7.87% 6.93% 12.03% 36.90% 18.93%
21 11.83% 11.49% 11.17% 10.80% 9.72% 7.39% 6.95% 6.09% 3.76% 7.75%
8 Decks: Dealer hits soft 17
Outcome 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ten Ace
BJ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 7.71% 30.84%
Bust 35.67% 37.69% 39.81% 41.91% 43.93% 26.20% 24.40% 22.90% 23.01% 20.11%
17 13.01% 12.60% 12.24% 11.82% 11.50% 36.90% 12.88% 12.02% 12.11% 8.29%
18 13.61% 13.19% 12.59% 12.30% 11.46% 13.79% 35.98% 11.80% 12.09% 20.67%
19 13.15% 12.68% 12.27% 11.83% 11.50% 7.85% 12.87% 35.16% 12.12% 20.68%
20 12.57% 12.21% 11.78% 11.28% 11.02% 7.87% 6.93% 12.03% 36.90% 20.72%
21 11.99% 11.63% 11.31% 10.87% 10.58% 7.39% 6.95% 6.09% 3.76% 9.54%
Infinite Deck: Dealer stands on all 17s
Outcome 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ten Ace
BJ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 7.69% 30.77%
Bust 35.36% 37.39% 39.45% 41.64% 42.32% 26.23% 24.47% 22.84% 22.98% 16.65%
17 13.98% 13.50% 13.05% 12.23% 16.54% 36.86% 12.86% 12.00% 12.07% 18.89%
18 13.49% 13.05% 12.59% 12.23% 10.63% 13.78% 35.93% 12.00% 12.07% 18.89%
19 12.97% 12.56% 12.14% 11.77% 10.63% 7.86% 12.86% 35.08% 12.07% 18.89%
20 12.40% 12.03% 11.65% 11.31% 10.17% 7.86% 6.94% 12.00% 37.07% 18.89%
21 11.80% 11.47% 11.12% 10.82% 9.72% 7.41% 6.94% 6.08% 3.74% 7.78%
Infinite Deck: Dealer hits soft 17
Outcome 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ten Ace
BJ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 7.69% 30.77%
Bust 35.67% 37.67% 39.71% 41.77% 43.95% 26.23% 24.47% 22.84% 22.98% 20.07%
17 13.01% 12.63% 12.24% 11.84% 11.48% 36.86% 12.86% 12.00% 12.07% 8.30%
18 13.65% 13.20% 12.73% 12.29% 11.48% 13.78% 35.93% 12.00% 12.07% 20.69%
19 13.13% 12.71% 12.28% 11.84% 11.48% 7.86% 12.86% 35.08% 12.07% 20.69%
20 12.57% 12.18% 11.79% 11.38% 11.03% 7.86% 6.94% 12.00% 37.07% 20.69%
21 11.96% 11.62% 11.26% 10.89% 10.57% 7.41% 6.94% 6.08% 3.74% 9.57%

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