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Hola
Gracias por toda la información. En Asia, la mayoría de los casinos utilizan máquinas de barajado continuo, 5 o 6 barajas. Me pregunto, ¿hay algún cambio en la estrategia básica? (comparado con las maquinas de 6 mazos) .
Hola
Gracias por toda la información.
En Asia, la mayoría de los casinos utilizan máquinas de barajado continuo. (normalmente 5 o 6 barajas). Me pregunto, ¿hay algún cambio en la estrategia básica en comparación con los zapatos de 6 barajas?
Hola KenSmith
Tengo la tasa de bust para el distribuidor hasta tarjetas de A a 10, pero no puedo encontrar la tasa de bust para el jugador duro 12 a 16 cuando golpeó para otra cards.please darme la information.I soy un jugador de estrategia básica. Gracias.
Es bastante fácil calcularlos, sobre todo si estás dispuesto a aceptar números casi exactos de una aproximación de baraja infinita.
Si pegas fuerte 16 y planeas plantarte en 17 o más, entonces tomarás sólo una carta.
Cinco de los 13 valores posibles de las cartas mejorarán tu mano, por lo que fallarás el 8/13 restante de las veces.
p(busto 16) = 8/13 = 61,5%
Si tienes 15 duros, ahora hay dos posibilidades...
Reventarás inmediatamente 7/13 de las veces.
1/13 de las veces sacarás un As por 16 duros, y golpearás de nuevo.
p(busto 15) = 7/13 + (1/13 * 8/13) = 58,6%
Puedes hacer lo mismo con las otras manos iniciales.
¿Los resultados?
p(Busto 16) = 61,5%
p(Busto 15) = 58,6%
p(Busto 14) = 55,0%
p(Busto 13) = 50,9%
p(Busto 12) = 46,2%
Todos ellos asumen que seguirás golpeando hasta que llegues a los 17 o te quiebres.
Thank you for everything, man. I am on vacation for six months and I have been on your site almost everyday for the past three. I have basic memorized and have started working counting in to my play. Thank you for teaching me these skills through your site. The new format looks great.
The new display, i.e. black screen on a white background is glaring. It makes my eyes hurt. It causes distortions in perception and causes a loss in concentration. Please change back to the green background or anything easier on the eyes.
Thank you for the service of the strategy trainer. If you have time, how does the Surrender option effect the win/loss ratio if surrender is counted as a loss?
Can you quantify the change. I would expect the win ratio to be less even though the $Loss would be less. I have been calculating the winning percentage at 47.6. Is this about correct for the dealer hits soft-17 option. The Beau Rivage, Biloxi plays Dealer Hits Soft 17, has late surrender and re-split Aces up to 4 hands. This seems to offer good odds. What are they? Thanks again for the Basic Strategy Charts and your many excellent articles.
You are correct: with surrender the percentage of hands lost will be higher, but the money lost will be lower (assuming you use surrender at the appropriate times). This is one example of why looking at the win/loss percentage is a poor way of judging a game.
I recommend paying no attention at all to win/loss percentages, because they don’t tell the whole story.
That is especially true when using the trainer. The trainer’s percentage display is simply not useful, as it even treats a push as a loss. The win percentage is just the number of wins divided by the number of total hands. (The next version will be much improved in that regard, when I get time to finish it!)
I’m extremely suspicious that this program isn’t fairly generating random numbers. It consistently deals out high cards straight from the beginning. Time after time after time, I set it to 2 decks, and I see extremely negative counts, very quickly, and the reason is because lots of high cards come out straight at the beginning. Is it possible you programmed this thing to kind of simulate “worst case scenario” conditions?
Yeah, I guess that’s believable. Stranger things that one expects are conceivable can happen by chance. I do remember this one time I played monopoly, we played for like an hour and fully one out of every 6 rolls was double-6, and that wasn’t on any computer, they were real dice, And I just got my clock cleaned by a casino. I’d win 25 dollar bet (min bet on the 2 deck game) after 25 dollar bet after 25 dollar bet when the count was negative or not positive enough, I endured another player with a superiority complex (ironic) chastising me for being too “afraid” to play basic strategy (sure, it was fear that made me deviate from basic strategy), constantly griping at me for messing up his game by “playing badly” (like standing on 16 against a 10 when the count was like +7), and eventually actually PAYING me 25 dollars to LEAVE the table (!!!), then the count would get high and I’d bet 50, or 100, this one time the count got to +13 with 1.3 decks left I reckoned, I doubled down on 10 against 10 with 200 on the table, and of course I got a frigging 2, and the dealer got the 10 of course…. and then the EXACT SAME THING HAPPENED AGAIN NEXT HAND! And at the end of the day, 3500 dollars down (with 500 left), security came to my table and said “we believe you are an advantage player” and invited me to play any game but blackjack. Gee. THAT was fun. It’s hard to believe that I supposedly really did have an advantage, but I did a calculation and it turned out that risk of ruin was minimized by betting 54 dollars for every 1 the true count was past 1.8 (or betting as if I had about 15000 dollars regardless of the amount I actually had), and that risk of ruin was about 76% starting from 5000 dollars, so I did know it could go that badly pretty easily but damn it sure seemed like some deity had a grudge with me. But what can I do, no one would ever hire me for an actual job. What happens whenever I touch the stock market? 2008 happens is what happens. I just suck at everything.
Oh, by the way, you say on your website in your blackjack lessons that you should take insurance when the count gets to 1.3 or so. This is wrong. The actually correct answer is actually exactly 3 and a third. Or if you want to maximize utility (expectation on a logarithmic scale, a.k.a. kelly optimality) 3.29 since the insurance bet has negative correlation with the result of the main bet. You’d think it would drop more than from 3.33 to 3.29, but nope, that’s all.
You say “…in your blackjack lessons that you should take insurance when the count gets to 1.3 or so…”
Any idea where you saw that? If it’s mentioned somewhere it is certainly a mistake and needs to be corrected.
Hi Raymond,
I notice you are visiting from a mobile device which likely does not support Flash. That did not change with the new website.
Perhaps you were previously visiting from a desktop computer instead?
If you were previously able to access the trainer from your mobile device, please let me know.
But I am unaware of any that support Flash.
By the way, now that the website design is complete, I can get to work creating a new version of the trainer.
I’ve been planning that for a long while, and have a lot of improvements in mind.
For one thing, the new version will not require Flash, and should work on any device.
I plan for it to also optionally be multi-player.
Soy un jugador de speed count bastante exitoso que se ha pasado al sistema Hi Low. Veo que el sistema Hi Low es mucho más potente. En muchas de las decisiones de variación no está claro en varios casos si la cuenta es verdadera o en ejecución. Por favor, aconséjeme si es posible. También soy un jugador de Atlantic City BJ con 8 barajas. ¿Son las reglas anteriores casi las mismas que las de 6 barajas?
Michael
Hola
Gracias por toda la información. En Asia, la mayoría de los casinos utilizan máquinas de barajado continuo, 5 o 6 barajas. Me pregunto, ¿hay algún cambio en la estrategia básica? (comparado con las maquinas de 6 mazos) .
Hola
Gracias por toda la información.
En Asia, la mayoría de los casinos utilizan máquinas de barajado continuo. (normalmente 5 o 6 barajas). Me pregunto, ¿hay algún cambio en la estrategia básica en comparación con los zapatos de 6 barajas?
Los CSM no cambian para nada la estrategia básica. Juega con la confianza de que lo haces lo mejor posible.
Hola KenSmith
Gracias.
Hola KenSmith
Tengo la tasa de bust para el distribuidor hasta tarjetas de A a 10, pero no puedo encontrar la tasa de bust para el jugador duro 12 a 16 cuando golpeó para otra cards.please darme la information.I soy un jugador de estrategia básica. Gracias.
Es bastante fácil calcularlos, sobre todo si estás dispuesto a aceptar números casi exactos de una aproximación de baraja infinita.
Si pegas fuerte 16 y planeas plantarte en 17 o más, entonces tomarás sólo una carta.
Cinco de los 13 valores posibles de las cartas mejorarán tu mano, por lo que fallarás el 8/13 restante de las veces.
p(busto 16) = 8/13 = 61,5%
Si tienes 15 duros, ahora hay dos posibilidades...
Reventarás inmediatamente 7/13 de las veces.
1/13 de las veces sacarás un As por 16 duros, y golpearás de nuevo.
p(busto 15) = 7/13 + (1/13 * 8/13) = 58,6%
Puedes hacer lo mismo con las otras manos iniciales.
¿Los resultados?
p(Busto 16) = 61,5%
p(Busto 15) = 58,6%
p(Busto 14) = 55,0%
p(Busto 13) = 50,9%
p(Busto 12) = 46,2%
Todos ellos asumen que seguirás golpeando hasta que llegues a los 17 o te quiebres.
Thank you very much.
Thank you for everything, man. I am on vacation for six months and I have been on your site almost everyday for the past three. I have basic memorized and have started working counting in to my play. Thank you for teaching me these skills through your site. The new format looks great.
Absolutamente brillante. Tan genial. Está en favoritos
The new display, i.e. black screen on a white background is glaring. It makes my eyes hurt. It causes distortions in perception and causes a loss in concentration. Please change back to the green background or anything easier on the eyes.
Thank you for the service of the strategy trainer. If you have time, how does the Surrender option effect the win/loss ratio if surrender is counted as a loss?
Marcas de rueda
A surrender in the trainer is counted just like any other loss, so it affects the win/loss percentage as well.
On the screen colors, I may experiment with that a bit and see what I can come up with. Thanks for the feedback.
Can you quantify the change. I would expect the win ratio to be less even though the $Loss would be less. I have been calculating the winning percentage at 47.6. Is this about correct for the dealer hits soft-17 option. The Beau Rivage, Biloxi plays Dealer Hits Soft 17, has late surrender and re-split Aces up to 4 hands. This seems to offer good odds. What are they? Thanks again for the Basic Strategy Charts and your many excellent articles.
Marcas de rueda
You are correct: with surrender the percentage of hands lost will be higher, but the money lost will be lower (assuming you use surrender at the appropriate times). This is one example of why looking at the win/loss percentage is a poor way of judging a game.
I recommend paying no attention at all to win/loss percentages, because they don’t tell the whole story.
That is especially true when using the trainer. The trainer’s percentage display is simply not useful, as it even treats a push as a loss. The win percentage is just the number of wins divided by the number of total hands. (The next version will be much improved in that regard, when I get time to finish it!)
For the Beau Rivage game you mention, I plugged in 6D, H17, and Late Surrender at the Strategy Engine:
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-basic-strategy-engine/?numdecks=6&soft17=h17&dbl=all&das=yes&surr=ls&peek=yes
That shows a house advantage estimated at 0.58%. The Resplit Aces rules decreases that by about 0.08%, so this game has an expected loss of 0.5% of your initial bets.
That is the important number, regardless of what percentage of hands you will win or lose.
I’m extremely suspicious that this program isn’t fairly generating random numbers. It consistently deals out high cards straight from the beginning. Time after time after time, I set it to 2 decks, and I see extremely negative counts, very quickly, and the reason is because lots of high cards come out straight at the beginning. Is it possible you programmed this thing to kind of simulate “worst case scenario” conditions?
No, it’s random. You’ve just been lucky, or unlucky, depending on your perspective.
Yeah, I guess that’s believable. Stranger things that one expects are conceivable can happen by chance. I do remember this one time I played monopoly, we played for like an hour and fully one out of every 6 rolls was double-6, and that wasn’t on any computer, they were real dice, And I just got my clock cleaned by a casino. I’d win 25 dollar bet (min bet on the 2 deck game) after 25 dollar bet after 25 dollar bet when the count was negative or not positive enough, I endured another player with a superiority complex (ironic) chastising me for being too “afraid” to play basic strategy (sure, it was fear that made me deviate from basic strategy), constantly griping at me for messing up his game by “playing badly” (like standing on 16 against a 10 when the count was like +7), and eventually actually PAYING me 25 dollars to LEAVE the table (!!!), then the count would get high and I’d bet 50, or 100, this one time the count got to +13 with 1.3 decks left I reckoned, I doubled down on 10 against 10 with 200 on the table, and of course I got a frigging 2, and the dealer got the 10 of course…. and then the EXACT SAME THING HAPPENED AGAIN NEXT HAND! And at the end of the day, 3500 dollars down (with 500 left), security came to my table and said “we believe you are an advantage player” and invited me to play any game but blackjack. Gee. THAT was fun. It’s hard to believe that I supposedly really did have an advantage, but I did a calculation and it turned out that risk of ruin was minimized by betting 54 dollars for every 1 the true count was past 1.8 (or betting as if I had about 15000 dollars regardless of the amount I actually had), and that risk of ruin was about 76% starting from 5000 dollars, so I did know it could go that badly pretty easily but damn it sure seemed like some deity had a grudge with me. But what can I do, no one would ever hire me for an actual job. What happens whenever I touch the stock market? 2008 happens is what happens. I just suck at everything.
Oh, by the way, you say on your website in your blackjack lessons that you should take insurance when the count gets to 1.3 or so. This is wrong. The actually correct answer is actually exactly 3 and a third. Or if you want to maximize utility (expectation on a logarithmic scale, a.k.a. kelly optimality) 3.29 since the insurance bet has negative correlation with the result of the main bet. You’d think it would drop more than from 3.33 to 3.29, but nope, that’s all.
You say “…in your blackjack lessons that you should take insurance when the count gets to 1.3 or so…”
Any idea where you saw that? If it’s mentioned somewhere it is certainly a mistake and needs to be corrected.
In the School, the lesson at https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-school/lesson-13-advanced-course-part-1/ correctly includes this:
“If you are playing at a six deck game, insurance is worthwhile when the true count is 3 or higher.”
Hi Raymond,
I notice you are visiting from a mobile device which likely does not support Flash. That did not change with the new website.
Perhaps you were previously visiting from a desktop computer instead?
If you were previously able to access the trainer from your mobile device, please let me know.
But I am unaware of any that support Flash.
By the way, now that the website design is complete, I can get to work creating a new version of the trainer.
I’ve been planning that for a long while, and have a lot of improvements in mind.
For one thing, the new version will not require Flash, and should work on any device.
I plan for it to also optionally be multi-player.
Wow este sitio web me hizo ganar a lo grande empecé con 1k y me fui con cerca de 5.79K ¡Gracias!
Soy un jugador de speed count bastante exitoso que se ha pasado al sistema Hi Low. Veo que el sistema Hi Low es mucho más potente. En muchas de las decisiones de variación no está claro en varios casos si la cuenta es verdadera o en ejecución. Por favor, aconséjeme si es posible. También soy un jugador de Atlantic City BJ con 8 barajas. ¿Son las reglas anteriores casi las mismas que las de 6 barajas?
Michael