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I know it’s not something that would occur often, but there is another additional hand that’s a (late) surrender if the dealer hits soft 17: A pair of eights against an Ace.
(As a side-note, something clever I’ve inferred when comparing S17 vs. H17 strategy is there are no differences with upcards of 7-10 because it’s impossible for the dealer to reach a soft 17 in those cases – hence why all those additional H17 surrenders are against an Ace.)
Hi there. Iam new to your site but I am glad to see most of your bloggers are correct in what they say, especially regarding poor players changing the shoe! I was twenty years in the business so I think I know a little bit. Good luck to all.
Thanks for your article on memorizing the ‘Basic Strategy Variations’. I recently purchased Ken’s Index cards and was thinking along the same lines as you once did so thanks for sharing your experience and giving clarity.
I too am new to this site. Stumbled onto it after searching Reveres Advanced point count system. Been on the site last 2 days & signed up for the news letter.I also had ideas of big winnings when i went to vegas in 1980.Reality set in.Now i play around my home,P.A.We don’t have the best conditions but if you play well you can win $$.To me Michaels problem is he never read the rule of only playing under the best conditions as outlined in L.R.’s Playing blackjack as a Buisness.I know the book is outdated but there are many good points that can help even the most seasoned player.Good Luck & thanks for the site.
Do I think card counting works on an 8 deck shoe. Nope. But if they had 95percent deck penetration in the shoe. And there was about 1 deck left in the show with a plus 10-15 count. He’ll yea is would work. Lol. Basic strategy is your best bet. And he’ll if you win 100 bucks at the end of a 6 hr session. He’ll that’s a great time and a win.
16vT is a far closer decision than either of the other two.
While the best answer is just that the math says so, I’ll try to give you a more satisfying answer:
Comparing 16vT and 16v9… If you hit 16, you obviously have a good chance of busting. To make that risk worth it, your successful hit needs to substantially improve your chance of winning the hand. When the dealer has a ten up, it is quite likely that you can draw a non-busting card to your sixteen, but still lose the hand.
When the dealer has a 9 up instead, that happens slightly less often because the dealer’s final total is slightly lower on average. Hitting your 16 is more valuable against a dealer 9, because you’ll win the hand more often than against a 10.
Now, considering 16vA… The dealer with an Ace up busts only 20% of the time (and the figure is even lower if they stand on soft 17). That makes standing with a 16 an awful idea. Always hit this hand. It’s not a close call at all.
I get these kinds of questions a lot. For most players, it’s best to just take my word for it… Basic strategy takes all of these subtle interactions into account, and gives you the best possible strategy in each case. The 16vT case is really quite unique, because it is such a very close call between hitting and standing.
The liability falls upon the casino……plain and simple. Here’s why…..No mater how uncontrolled the costumer is or could be, the establishment is part of the community and thus has a moral responsibility to the public to exercise better judgment if the customer refuses to or can’t.
Had Mark Johnston been a violent personal and gotten hold of a weapon of some sort and hurt or even killed someone then the fault would partly fall upon the establishment for facilitating his drunkenness to the point of the offence.
Mark Johnston is a grown man and is personally responsible for his behavior but helping impair his judgment beyond his ability to control himself instead of simply cutting him off is in my opinion negligence on the part of a legal business that caters to the public.
The POGG is certainly a good choice, and was created by a knowledgeable player.
I think it is, and will continue to be among the best resources.
Another popular site is CasinoMeister.com.
While I’m not always convinced that the CasinoMeister holds players’ interests foremost, the forums are still quite useful.
Revel Casino in Atlantic City just introduced a new blackjack game called “Switch Hands”. Apparently, you can discard a bad two card draw and play two face-down cards which you have not seen. What do you know about this game?
It sounds like you pay a $1 ante for each $5 of your bet, so you pay a 20% vig for the opportunity to fold and get a new hand.
I haven’t seen any analysis by anyone yet.
Does basic strategy apply to 2-card combos after card-splits? ie. Split 8’s against Dealer’s 4. You get a 2, do you double down or just hit? I have found these situations to be more of a trap than winning strategies, because if you happen to have build up your bet, then have to split and double down maybe twice or even three times, you end up risking and often losing your entire winnings and end up losing. Help, anyone?
Absolutely.
Yes, these hands will make or break your entire session, because you can get as many as 8 bets working under the most common rules.
(That’s three splits and four doubles!)
When basic strategy says to double, it is because the double is more profitable than just hitting.
Don’t forgo these extra opportunities to take advantage.
Sure, sometimes things won’t go your way, but how sweet it is when you get several bets on the table and the dealer busts.
Hi
Thanks for all information. In Asia, most casino use continuous shuffle machine , 5 or 6 decks. I am asking ,is there any change in basic strategy? ( compare to 6 deck shoes) .
Hi
Thanks for all the informations.
In Asia, most casino use continuous shuffle machines. ( usually 5 or 6 decks). I am asking , is there any change in basic strategy as compare to 6 decks shoes?
The GameMaster School is an excellent resource (that’s why I host it here with his permission!), but I do have my quibbles with it.
And in my opinion, the approach he uses to teach how to size your bets is confusing and intimidating. His “exact” table of how to figure an optimal bet goes into too much detail for someone just learning to count. I understand that he wants to put real numbers to the concepts, but he really should put a warning above that first table that says “Don’t worry about all these crazy exact numbers… We’ll round them off for easier actual bet sizes in a moment.”
And indeed, that’s exactly what he does further down the page. He used all that math to arrive at an actual betting spread of $5/$10/$20/$40/$50/$60, as the true count increases from +1 up to +6.
Now the bad news, about bankroll concerns. The edge in card counting is small, so that means you need a big bankroll to handle the inevitable losing streaks.
You say that you usually take about $1000 to play, which is probably your trip bankroll, not a lifetime bankroll. You should use a total, or lifetime, bankroll to decide how much you can afford to bet, with the realization that a run of bad luck will put you out of commission until you can raise another trip stake.
But there is no doubt that $1000, even as just a trip bankroll, is insufficient to safely play a game with a $25 minimum bet. You need to find a lower minimum game. Unfortunately that often means worse conditions and rules. It’s a trade-off. You may have to backcount worse shoe games that have a $5 minimum to find a viable opportunity.
A little more good news: It is not necessary to readjust your bet sizings constantly. In fact, you can reasonably decide your betting limits for a trip before you go, and don’t worry about them after that. If you’re unlucky, yes, you may run out of money for the trip. But we’re talking trip bankroll here, and your bet sizing should really be based on your total bankroll, which should not see dramatic percentage changes in a single session.
As for your question 4, about multiplying your bet by the true count, that’s not a bad approach, and it actually is not much different than the GameMaster’s bet ramp from $5 to $60. Can your linear ramp be tweaked for slightly better performance? Probably, but it’s not worth stressing over. Your approach has the benefit of simplicity, and there’s nothing inherently wrong with it.
Now, on to strategy variations… The three index numbers you mention are by far the most important. Once you are ready to expand your game and use more indexes, search for “Illustrious 18”, and you’ll find the 18 most important numbers. The “I-18” will get you at least 80% of the value of strategy variations. If you want to go further yet, consider my indexes available on these strategy cards: https://www.blackjackinfo.com/card/advanced-strategy-cards.php
(If any readers aren’t sure what I’m talking about, that last link has a brief intro as well.)
So, the bottom line is… It takes a bigger bankroll to safely tackle the $25 minimum games you are currently playing. You are almost certain to encounter a losing streak in the multiple thousands of dollars occasionally at this game. If you’ve been lucky enough to build that big a cushion first, your bankroll may never look back. If not, well, you’ll be back to raising another stake. The problem with moving down to lower stakes is twofold: One, the games are usually worse, requiring more discipline and bigger spreads. Two, the profit potential is lower in the smaller games, and it’s hard to stay motivated when your hourly earn rate is so low.
So, it’s time to decide whether you’re willing to down-shift in games, and spend a lot of time grinding for small stakes to build up a bank, or take a risky stab at the higher earning games with the knowledge that any losing streak may wipe you out. As long as you understand the choice, there are good reasons to make either decision.
I know it’s not something that would occur often, but there is another additional hand that’s a (late) surrender if the dealer hits soft 17: A pair of eights against an Ace.
(As a side-note, something clever I’ve inferred when comparing S17 vs. H17 strategy is there are no differences with upcards of 7-10 because it’s impossible for the dealer to reach a soft 17 in those cases – hence why all those additional H17 surrenders are against an Ace.)
Kelly, Thanks for noting that omission. I’ve added it to the article.
And, yes, that’s a handy fact about comparing S17 vs H17 strategies. They will always match for dealer upcards 7-10.
Hi there. Iam new to your site but I am glad to see most of your bloggers are correct in what they say, especially regarding poor players changing the shoe! I was twenty years in the business so I think I know a little bit. Good luck to all.
Thanks for your article on memorizing the ‘Basic Strategy Variations’. I recently purchased Ken’s Index cards and was thinking along the same lines as you once did so thanks for sharing your experience and giving clarity.
What’s the name of this place? I can use a stiff drink! Can I get a drink BEFORE I place a bet?
If you can’t handle your booze, don’t gamble, stupid!
I too am new to this site. Stumbled onto it after searching Reveres Advanced point count system. Been on the site last 2 days & signed up for the news letter.I also had ideas of big winnings when i went to vegas in 1980.Reality set in.Now i play around my home,P.A.We don’t have the best conditions but if you play well you can win $$.To me Michaels problem is he never read the rule of only playing under the best conditions as outlined in L.R.’s Playing blackjack as a Buisness.I know the book is outdated but there are many good points that can help even the most seasoned player.Good Luck & thanks for the site.
Do I think card counting works on an 8 deck shoe. Nope. But if they had 95percent deck penetration in the shoe. And there was about 1 deck left in the show with a plus 10-15 count. He’ll yea is would work. Lol. Basic strategy is your best bet. And he’ll if you win 100 bucks at the end of a 6 hr session. He’ll that’s a great time and a win.
Why 16vT Stand but 16v9 or 16vA is Hit?
16vT is a far closer decision than either of the other two.
While the best answer is just that the math says so, I’ll try to give you a more satisfying answer:
Comparing 16vT and 16v9… If you hit 16, you obviously have a good chance of busting. To make that risk worth it, your successful hit needs to substantially improve your chance of winning the hand. When the dealer has a ten up, it is quite likely that you can draw a non-busting card to your sixteen, but still lose the hand.
When the dealer has a 9 up instead, that happens slightly less often because the dealer’s final total is slightly lower on average. Hitting your 16 is more valuable against a dealer 9, because you’ll win the hand more often than against a 10.
Now, considering 16vA… The dealer with an Ace up busts only 20% of the time (and the figure is even lower if they stand on soft 17). That makes standing with a 16 an awful idea. Always hit this hand. It’s not a close call at all.
I get these kinds of questions a lot. For most players, it’s best to just take my word for it… Basic strategy takes all of these subtle interactions into account, and gives you the best possible strategy in each case. The 16vT case is really quite unique, because it is such a very close call between hitting and standing.
The liability falls upon the casino……plain and simple. Here’s why…..No mater how uncontrolled the costumer is or could be, the establishment is part of the community and thus has a moral responsibility to the public to exercise better judgment if the customer refuses to or can’t.
Had Mark Johnston been a violent personal and gotten hold of a weapon of some sort and hurt or even killed someone then the fault would partly fall upon the establishment for facilitating his drunkenness to the point of the offence.
Mark Johnston is a grown man and is personally responsible for his behavior but helping impair his judgment beyond his ability to control himself instead of simply cutting him off is in my opinion negligence on the part of a legal business that caters to the public.
Dear Ken,
Would you consider The POGG to be the best source of information for online casinos? Thank you.
Regards,
Scott
The POGG is certainly a good choice, and was created by a knowledgeable player.
I think it is, and will continue to be among the best resources.
Another popular site is CasinoMeister.com.
While I’m not always convinced that the CasinoMeister holds players’ interests foremost, the forums are still quite useful.
Revel Casino in Atlantic City just introduced a new blackjack game called “Switch Hands”. Apparently, you can discard a bad two card draw and play two face-down cards which you have not seen. What do you know about this game?
I hadn’t heard of this game until your comment. I did manage to find some information at the NJ DGE though:
http://www.nj.gov/oag/ge/docs/TempRegs/switchhandsblackjack.pdf
It sounds like you pay a $1 ante for each $5 of your bet, so you pay a 20% vig for the opportunity to fold and get a new hand.
I haven’t seen any analysis by anyone yet.
Does basic strategy apply to 2-card combos after card-splits? ie. Split 8’s against Dealer’s 4. You get a 2, do you double down or just hit? I have found these situations to be more of a trap than winning strategies, because if you happen to have build up your bet, then have to split and double down maybe twice or even three times, you end up risking and often losing your entire winnings and end up losing. Help, anyone?
Absolutely.
Yes, these hands will make or break your entire session, because you can get as many as 8 bets working under the most common rules.
(That’s three splits and four doubles!)
When basic strategy says to double, it is because the double is more profitable than just hitting.
Don’t forgo these extra opportunities to take advantage.
Sure, sometimes things won’t go your way, but how sweet it is when you get several bets on the table and the dealer busts.
Hi
Thanks for all information. In Asia, most casino use continuous shuffle machine , 5 or 6 decks. I am asking ,is there any change in basic strategy? ( compare to 6 deck shoes) .
Hi
Thanks for all the informations.
In Asia, most casino use continuous shuffle machines. ( usually 5 or 6 decks). I am asking , is there any change in basic strategy as compare to 6 decks shoes?
First, relax! It’s not as bad as you think. But there is both good news and bad news.
I’ll start with this 0.38% thing… It comes from the GameMaster’s Blackjack School lesson 8, located here:
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-school/blackjack-lesson-08.php
The GameMaster School is an excellent resource (that’s why I host it here with his permission!), but I do have my quibbles with it.
And in my opinion, the approach he uses to teach how to size your bets is confusing and intimidating. His “exact” table of how to figure an optimal bet goes into too much detail for someone just learning to count. I understand that he wants to put real numbers to the concepts, but he really should put a warning above that first table that says “Don’t worry about all these crazy exact numbers… We’ll round them off for easier actual bet sizes in a moment.”
And indeed, that’s exactly what he does further down the page. He used all that math to arrive at an actual betting spread of $5/$10/$20/$40/$50/$60, as the true count increases from +1 up to +6.
Now the bad news, about bankroll concerns. The edge in card counting is small, so that means you need a big bankroll to handle the inevitable losing streaks.
You say that you usually take about $1000 to play, which is probably your trip bankroll, not a lifetime bankroll. You should use a total, or lifetime, bankroll to decide how much you can afford to bet, with the realization that a run of bad luck will put you out of commission until you can raise another trip stake.
But there is no doubt that $1000, even as just a trip bankroll, is insufficient to safely play a game with a $25 minimum bet. You need to find a lower minimum game. Unfortunately that often means worse conditions and rules. It’s a trade-off. You may have to backcount worse shoe games that have a $5 minimum to find a viable opportunity.
A little more good news: It is not necessary to readjust your bet sizings constantly. In fact, you can reasonably decide your betting limits for a trip before you go, and don’t worry about them after that. If you’re unlucky, yes, you may run out of money for the trip. But we’re talking trip bankroll here, and your bet sizing should really be based on your total bankroll, which should not see dramatic percentage changes in a single session.
As for your question 4, about multiplying your bet by the true count, that’s not a bad approach, and it actually is not much different than the GameMaster’s bet ramp from $5 to $60. Can your linear ramp be tweaked for slightly better performance? Probably, but it’s not worth stressing over. Your approach has the benefit of simplicity, and there’s nothing inherently wrong with it.
Now, on to strategy variations… The three index numbers you mention are by far the most important. Once you are ready to expand your game and use more indexes, search for “Illustrious 18”, and you’ll find the 18 most important numbers. The “I-18” will get you at least 80% of the value of strategy variations. If you want to go further yet, consider my indexes available on these strategy cards: https://www.blackjackinfo.com/card/advanced-strategy-cards.php
(If any readers aren’t sure what I’m talking about, that last link has a brief intro as well.)
So, the bottom line is… It takes a bigger bankroll to safely tackle the $25 minimum games you are currently playing. You are almost certain to encounter a losing streak in the multiple thousands of dollars occasionally at this game. If you’ve been lucky enough to build that big a cushion first, your bankroll may never look back. If not, well, you’ll be back to raising another stake. The problem with moving down to lower stakes is twofold: One, the games are usually worse, requiring more discipline and bigger spreads. Two, the profit potential is lower in the smaller games, and it’s hard to stay motivated when your hourly earn rate is so low.
So, it’s time to decide whether you’re willing to down-shift in games, and spend a lot of time grinding for small stakes to build up a bank, or take a risky stab at the higher earning games with the knowledge that any losing streak may wipe you out. As long as you understand the choice, there are good reasons to make either decision.