Lesson 14 – The Advanced Course – Part 2

This free course on blackjack and card counting was created by the GameMaster, publisher of the GameMaster Online website. It is reproduced here in its entirety with permission of the author. His 24-lesson course is an excellent introduction to winning blackjack.

To start at the beginning, visit the Welcome page.

Basic Strategy Variations: Hit or Stand?

The most common decision any player makes at Blackjack is whether to hit or stand, consequently this will be the most common basic strategy variation and you should learn all the important ones. The first is with a hand of 16 against a dealer’s up card of 10. You should stand if the count is 0 or higher and hit if it is less than 0. This means that if the running count is 0 or higher, stand. Since the ‘decision’ number is 0, it’s not necessary to calculate the true count — the running count will do in this situation. Don’t get confused here. Almost all basic strategy variations rely on the true count, but for those where the decision number is 0, the running count will suffice.

The next most important hand is 15 against a dealer’s 10. The decision number is a true count of 4, if you are playing at a game of four decks or more. This variation and the others can be easily learned if you make a set of flashcards. They needn’t be fancy or sophisticated; merely accurate. Cut some 2′” squares from manila folders and they’ll work just fine. A typical flashcard should look like this

Flash Card 1

If you imagine the 10 and 16 placed on the centerline of a 2″ X 2″ square, the 0 is offset so your left thumb covers the number. As you go through the stack, recite “sixteen versus 10, stand at zero” (or higher). For a hand of 15 vs. 10, a card will look like this

Flash Card 2

When you come to this card, you’ll recite “15 versus 10; stand at 4″.

As time goes on, you won’t need to remind yourself that you should stand with the 15 against 10, so you’ll recite “15 versus 10 is 4″.

Got the idea?

Here are the numbers you’ll need to learn. These may vary a bit from numbers you’ll see published in books like Stanford Wong’s “Professional Blackjack” because the ones I use are specifically for a six-deck game where the dealer stands on A-6 and a few have been modified based upon the theory of ‘risk averse’ play which was developed about 15 years ago. These numbers work well; they have been proven in thousands of hours of actual casino play by me and my students. Do NOT use them for single-deck games, however. Single-deck play requires different numbers and will be covered in a future lesson.

Note from the BlackjackInfo.com editor:

There are slight differences in the GameMaster’s index numbers published here and the optimized numbers on the BlackjackInfo Advanced Blackjack Strategy Cards.

These differences are usually due to the use of risk-averse calculations by the GameMaster. I maintain that for the majority of players (who are not playing near the maximum Kelly fraction of their bankroll), straight indexes are preferable to risk-adjusted ones. In any case where risk-averse indexes differ from straight indexes, even by several points, the decisions are quite close and the effect of choosing one index style over another is minimal.


Basic Strategy Variations: 6 Decks, Dealer Stands on A-6

12 vs. 2 Stand at 3 or higher
12 vs. 3 Stand at 2 or higher
12 vs. 4 Stand at 0 or higher (Yes, if the running count is at all minus, you hit 12 against a 4. It drives the other players at the table crazy!!!)
12 vs. 5 Stand at -1 or higher (This means you hit if the count is LOWER than -1).
13 vs. 2 Stand at -1 or higher
14 vs. Ace Stand at 9 or higher
15 vs. 7 Stand at 10 or higher
15 vs. 8 Stand at 10 or higher
15 vs. 9 Stand at 8 or higher
15 vs. 10 Stand at 4 or higher
15 vs. Ace Stand at 9 or higher
16 vs. 7 Stand at 9 or higher
16 vs. 8 Stand at 7 or higher
16 vs. 9 Stand at 5 or higher
16 vs. 10 Stand at 0 or higher
16 vs. Ace Stand at 8 or higher

And to finish it off, one weird play: Stand with A-7 against Ace at 1 or higher.

Homework

Make up a set of flashcards and begin learning these variations.

← Previous: Lesson 13
Next: Lesson 15

6 comments on “Lesson 14 – The Advanced Course – Part 2

  • Ben Nelson said:

    Is it more favourable to surrender than to hit 16 vs 10 at -1? I’m sure this info is on here somewhere, but I haven’t found it.
    Thanks for the site and info
    B

    • With 16vT, when surrender is available, surrender if the true count is -4 or higher, else hit.
      When surrender is not available, stand at true count 0 or higher, else hit.

      • Ben Nelson replied:

        Thanks for the reply; can you explain why the -4 makes it favourable to surrender as opposed to hit? I thought a lower count would increase the player’s chances of getting winning hand.
        Thanks so much!
        B

        • Make sure you have the right direction of decisions here…

          With really bad counts of -5 or worse you should hit (even if surrender is allowed). Because of the bad count, you have a better chance of hitting without busting, although that is offset by the fact that the dealer is also less likely to bust.

          At counts of -4 to just under zero, it’s better to hit than stand, but both are worse than surrender’s guaranteed loss of half your bet. So if allowed, surrender.

          Once you get to true zero or a plus count, standing becomes better than hitting, but again both are inferior to surrender if it is available. I assume much of that loss rate is due to the increased chance the dealer has a pat hand in plus counts.

          Most of my play has been in two-deck games without surrender available, so I rarely played games where I could use dual indexes with one for surrender and one for hit/stand. As a result, I actually never bothered learning the surrender indexes!

          • Ben Nelson replied:

            thanks- great clarity and information. A last question- basic strategy (6 Decks, S17, DA2, DAS, No surrender) says hit 16 vs 10, but here the variation is to stand on it once the count is zero or higher. Can you explain this just a bit? Everything else I’ve read on blackjack confirms your basic strategy chart.
            Thanks again
            Ben

          • I assume you are asking why basic strategy says to hit 16vT, but Hi-Lo strategy is to stand when the count is zero (or better). Well, 16vT is a very close call in basic strategy. If you’re dealt (T,6) vs T off the top of a freshly shuffled shoe, notice that the running count is actually -1 now. That’s enough to swing the decision. That is why basic strategy says to hit, even though the card counting index is zero. Yes, it’s a common point of confusion.

            It gets even crazier when you look at the confusing possibility when surrender is available. See 16vT.

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