I do a little bit of preaching on the pages of The GameMaster Online every so often, primarily because I hate to think of people handing their money to casinos. I’m not saying I don’t lose, because I have my bad days as well, but what I am saying is that the casinos have to fight me for every penny they get. You need to develop that kind of attitude and just the fact that you’re reading this now shows me that you’re willing to learn, so you’ve got a good start. Casinos make money because the players allow them to make money. Even if you’ve learned everything I’ve taught you up to this point, you’re still not ready to play, so forget about it and start building your bankroll towards the day when you WILL be ready. You cannot expect to win at Blackjack if you’re betting the rent money. You must have a sum of money set aside which is “extra” — money which, should you lose it, will not affect your lifestyle in any way. By doing it that way, you’ll bet what needs to be bet and play the hands as they need to be played. That’s what gets the $$$ at the casino. ‘Nuff said.
As it applies to playing Blackjack as a card counter, money management is a method of betting which will minimize your losses and maximize your gains. Playing Blackjack carries with it the risk of loss. The advantage a counter has over the casino is small and the fluctuations in a player’s bankroll can occur with frightening speed. Proper management of your funds is required in all aspects of the game to give you the best possible chance of reaching that elusive “long term”. Some of you will begin your careers as counters with a big win and you’ll never look back. Most of you, however, will begin with a loss and it will take more hours of play before you start showing a profit; that’s just the reality of the situation. What I’m going to teach you in the next four or five lessons is how to survive at the game until your long term edge begins to have its effect and then show you how to keep the profits you make.
All of our betting decisions will be made on the basis of what is known as the “true count” or more accurately, the “count per remaining deck”. While most of this applies to those who will be playing at multi-deck games, you single-deckers pay attention, too — you’ll need to know this as well. If six small cards come out on the first hand in a game, we will have a running count of 6. For the single-deck players, you will have a true count of just over 6, since there’s just a bit less than one deck remaining to be played. If you’re at a six-deck game, the count per remaining deck (the true count) is just a bit over 1, since there is just a bit less than 6 decks remaining to be played. See how that works? We are “standardizing” the count by dividing the running count by the total number of remaining decks. Let’s try another example to see if you understand the concept. At a single-deck game on the first hand, a running count of 2 (remember, I don’t use “+” to indicate a positive number) converts to a true count of 2, when rounded off. In a six-deck game and a running count of 12 after the first hand, the true count converts to 2. Both true counts are 2 , but it takes a much higher running count to achieve that in the six-deck game.
TO DETERMINE THE TRUE COUNT, DIVIDE THE “RUNNING” COUNT BY THE NUMBER OF DECKS REMAINING TO BE PLAYED.
Don’t let that statement confuse you. What this means is the number of decks left, whether they’ll actually be played or not. In a six-deck game, a deck or more may be cut off by the dealer, but that means nothing when computing true count. The basis for the calculation is the total number of decks in the game which is adjusted by the number of decks which have been played. An example: in a six-deck game where two decks have been played and put into the discard rack off to the side, a running count of 8 translates into a true count of 2 because there are four decks left in the shoe. The dealer may shuffle before all four of those remaining decks have been played, but for true count conversion that doesn’t matter.
Take this little test with me to see if you understand the principle.
Deck Remaining | Running Count | True Count | |
---|---|---|---|
1. | 4 | 8 | 2 |
2. | 2 | 10 | 5 |
3. | 5 | 5 | 1 |
4. | 3 | 12 | 4 |
The casinos are very nice about providing us a device to determine just how many decks there are remaining to be played in the shoe. No, that device is not the shoe, but the discard tray which can be found on virtually every table where a multi-deck game is played. As cards are used, the dealer places them very neatly in the discard tray where everyone can see them so counters use that, and a bit of subtraction, to determine how many decks are left to be played. At a six-deck game, if there are two decks in the discard tray, there has to be four decks left in the shoe, assuming no cards are on the table. What we strive for is to be accurate to within a half-deck for our estimation. Just exactly how to train for that is one of your homework assignments, so don’t worry about it for the moment. What’s more important at this point are the mechanics used to calculate the true count by that method. Let’s walk through a simple explanation together.
We’re at a six-deck game, the running count is M-6 and three decks are in the discard tray. That means three decks remain, so we divide the running count by 3 and our true count is M-2. Yes, this works for negative decks as well — exactly the same way. Got it? Try this test to see if you do.
Assume we’re at a six-deck game. I’m only going to give you the decks in the discard tray, so do the calculation to determine the number of decks left in the shoe.
Decks Played | Running Count | True Count | |
---|---|---|---|
1. | 2 | 4 | ? |
2. | 4 | 8 | ? |
3. | 5 | 5 | ? |
4. | 1 | 5 | ? |
5. | 2.5 | 7 | ? |
6. | 2 | 0 | ? |
7. | 3.5 | M-5 | ? |
8. | 1.5 | 9 | ? |
9. | 3 | M-3 | ? |
10. | 4.5 | 2 | ? |
The Answers
1. One (2 decks played, 4 decks remaining, 4 divided by 4 = 1)
2. Four (4 decks played, 2 decks remaining, 8 divided by 2 = 4)
3. Five (You’re on your own now, kid.)
4. One
5. Two
6. Zero
7. M-two
8. Two
9.M-one
10. A bit over one (but we always round “down” in order to be conservative, so we’d call this “one”.)
I can see some eyes glazing over out there, so we better stop for this week. But don’t be discouraged; you can learn this — it just takes some practice. Speaking of practice, pick up your homework assignment and practice “calibrating” your eyes.
Estimating the number of decks remaining in a discard tray is really just an exercise in repetitive staring. If you look at a deck of 52 cards long enough, you can tell if 10 or 12 cards have been added to it. So, that’s how we calibrate our eyes. Begin with a single deck and look it for a while. Then, put another deck on top of it and look at that for a while. Now, put a third deck on top and look at that for a while. Finally, pull one deck off — don’t count the cards — just estimate how much a deck is, pull it off and then count it to see how close you were. Now, put that deck back on top and pull off two decks, count them for accuracy and put them back on top. Now, build your stack up to five decks and pull off a deck and a half, then three decks and so on. You’ll be amazed at how quickly you’ve begun to recognize how many decks are in a pile. A nice variation to this exercise is to have a friend set up piles of various sizes (within a half-deck accuracy) while you’re out of the room and then you come in and recite the size of each pile.
Keep at it, because you’ve got to be accurate at this. Your money will be riding on it.
See you here next week when we discuss how to bet by using the true count.
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So I have a question about betting. I am still very new to blackjack in general, but I’m interested in using the methods taught through this course to make some winnings. I’ve been watching videos and one I can recall from Howcast, explains different methods of betting. One method used was progressive, where you’d bet $100 and win, then next you bet $200, then $300, and so on. You lose a bet and as long as you have caught a pretty good winning streak, you still have some winnings. Just everytime you loser you go back to your minimum bet. I’ve been practicing that method myself at home a Little more conservatively. I’ll bet $10, then $15, then $20, then $30. I never double my bet but I increase it by about 50-75% roughly until I lose then drop back to $10. I’ll keep doing this with no maximum, even if I get to betting $1000’s at a time (almost never get that far) but is that still a red flag to casinos? It’s not like I’m going from a $10 bet to $500, I just gradually increase it as I’m riding a winning streak. And when my streak ends and I lose a “big” bet, I still come out ahead. Let me know if this is a good or bad idea to do in real casinos and why. Thank you.
Many players use progressive betting systems, and since the bet increases do not happen in conjunction with an increased count, the casino won’t care a bit. Of course remember that if they don’t care, it’s a good sign the strategy is a losing one, and progressive betting is just that.
Ken i have a question. I ceep track of the running count each hand and in the end i find the real count. The next hand i add my running count to the real count and than devide ??? plz anser cuzz i am lost at this part
Just carry the running count forward hand after hand. Convert it to a true count to make betting and playing decisions, but the running count just continues on. If I have two decks left and a running count of +8, I would use the true count of +4 to decide what to bet. Then as the next hand is dealt, I’m still adding or subtracting from my running count of +8.
7 and 9, your answers are wrong. 7 is 0.4*M-2 and 9 is M/3-1. You forgot to divide your variable M by the number of decks left too.
The “M” isn’t a variable. It’s a mental shorthand for keeping track of the fact that the count is negative. Instead of thinking “minus 1”, just think “M1”.
The answers for questions 7 and 9 are exactly correct as posted.
Ken when the tc is at least +2 i dont rase my bet i just betting also behind someones bet.u think this looks suspicious?
It seems impractical to get enough of a spread that way, and worse, you are at the mercy of another player’s decisions on how to play the hand! Since very few players know correct basic strategy, I wouldn’t recommend back-betting unless you know the person is very competent. Does it look more or less suspicious than betting on your spot? That depends on how common the practice is in your particular casino. In some casinos, backbetting is very popular. At others, it is rare.
Thanks will let you know if i have any luck thanks for the lessons
I just also want to ask how do i know if they use a csm or asm for shuffling and will i still be able to have that edge in counting if they use a asm?Sorry for all the questions i am a student that is really interested in this and would like to invest lots of time and practice counting.
An ASM (automatic shuffling machine) will use a standard discard tray, where most of the cards will be used. Then, all 6+ decks are put into the machine for a shuffle. It’s just a replacement for hand-shuffling after the shoe is used up.
A CSM (continuous shuffle machine) is constantly shuffling the cards between each hand. Used cards are usually accumulated only during the course of a hand, then immediately put back into the machine and shuffled back into the mix.
Card counting works fine with an ASM. In fact, because there is less downtime between shoes, it is a good thing.
A CSM on the other hand makes counting useless.
This sucks,how can it be possible that my casino in south africa is more prepared against card counting than the more advanced countries.I understand what you are saying this really sucks basic strategy isn’t going to bring the profits.
How do i calculate my true count if my casino only lets about 20 cards in the discard then puts it back in the shoe?I can calculate running count but not true count.I think it is a 6 deck game i am not sure,and how do i determine how many decks the casino uses.
To find out how many decks are in play, there are two reasonable choices. The easy one is to ask the dealer. The harder way is to be present at the table when they change the cards in the machine, and see how many decks are involved.
But the games you describe (using a continuous shuffle machine) are useless for card counting. Consider that you’ll need to reset your running count to zero every time they empty the discard tray. Let’s say in the first 20 cards you get an amazing running count of +11. That’s still not even a true count of +2, because you need to divide +11 by the number of decks waiting to be dealt (more than 5.5 decks, since 6 decks less 26 cards would be 5.5 decks, and we’ve only used up 20 instead of 26 cards.)
In short, don’t waste your time counting cards in this game. If you must play it, basic strategy is the best you can do, and you cannot get a long-term edge over the game.
The true count is always calculated by dividing the running count by the number of unseen decks that could yet be dealt. In a continuous shuffle machine game where only 20 cards are in the discard at most, that means your effective penetration is extremely low. Let’s say that 26 cards were in the discard tray, in a six-deck game. That means 5.5 decks are unseen. A running count of +11 would translate to a true count of +11/5.5 = +2. And you’ll need to reset the running count as soon as the
Hello bud, just a quick question..
At what rate do you increase your bet?
If im playing £5 stakes on a 6 deck game do I increase my bet to £10-£30 with a true count of 1? Or 2 or 3 or 4 ect ect.
There must be a system you use to determine step up points?
Thank you luke
The next lesson covers this in detail. A simple but pretty effective approach is to ramp from your min bet to your max bet as the true count rises from +1 to +5.
The answer is it depends on the parameters of the game. Where the cutcard is. If you’re giving the money in pounds, you’re probably playing by different rules, in England don’t they check for blackjack after you double down? In America you don’t even have an opportunity to double down or split if the dealer has blackjack. In the US though, if the cutcard is 1 deck before the end, if the dealer checks for blackjack first, if double after split and resplit aces is allowed, then the correct answer is to add 3 times the minimum bet for each 1 the truecount gets past 1.8. You bet the minimum bet as long as the dealer has the advantage. You add to it when you start having the advantage, which is at a truecount of 1.8, that’s the breakeven point. So if the truecount is 0, you bet the minimum. I the truecount is 1, you bet the minimum. If the truecount is 2, you bet the minimum, if the truecount is 3, you bet 4 times the minimum, if the truecount is 4, you’d bet about 7 times the minimum. This is how you minimize risk of ruin. If you want to maximize statistical expected return on a linear scale without concern of ruin, you would bet the minimum bet whenever you have the disadvantage and the maximum bet whenever you have the advantage, however slight, with nothing in between, and if you can do that, you can expect to lose all your money in a hurry and if you don’t, you can expect to be thrown out of the casino in about 20 minutes.
I do have a question, After calculating the true count, will you continue counting with the true count or the running count?
for example:
1 deck is been played in a 6 deck shoe, and the running count is 5, you divide 5 /5 = a true count of 1. after the dealer begins to deal again, will you continue the running count of 5 of start with the true count of 1?
You always track the running count. You convert to true count for betting and playing decisions, but resume your count with the current running count.
How can you estimate the T/C in DD that the dealer the never dealt hte whole 2 decks of the shoe?
I think you are misunderstanding how to calculate the true count. Just divide the running count by the number of decks that you haven’t seen. It does not matter whether the dealer ever uses those cards or not. They are still unseen cards that should be used in the calculation. For example, if you are one half deck in to the 2-deck shoe, there are still 1.5 decks left. A running count of +3 would translate to a true count of +2. (3/1.5 = 2).
It seems 2decks remaining on the shoe with +5 or above is the best time to bet 1to8 in $10 table games.And how much money do i need to bring with me in $50 minimum DD in 1 session?thanks
You’re still not understanding the true count. It doesn’t matter how many decks are left. Just bet based on the true count. You should have a bet ramp that reaches your top bet at a true count of +5 or so.
Since you can use a smaller spread, a $50 double deck game needs less bankroll. You can play a typical session spreading $50 to $300 with $1500 or so.
How often do you calculate the True count? After every hand?
You should calculate the true count after every hand for betting purposes, or potentially even within a hand if you needed it to make a strategy decision based on the count and wanted the exposed cards to help out.
thanks
Does that mean say the true count is +4 after the first two hands in a 6?decks game, you increase your bet even though there is almost 6 decks left ?
Yes, that is exactly the reason for converting to a true count. A true count of +4 means the same thing very early in the shoe as it does deep in the shoe.
Ken,
I can’t thank you enough for the prompt answers !!! I honestly think you are saving us beginners lots of money and heartaches 🙂
I am the same guy who asked about KO and penetration in another post few days ago. Following up on your answer above … Using KO in a 8 deck game and starting at 0 .., the count rarely gets to the point where it is now even ( starting with 0 and subtracting 28 ) to get to a positive 0 count … Should I focus on learning Hi Low instead … It seems more plausible to get a running count of say + 12 that you divide by say 4 ( 4 decks remaining … Do you actually count the cards that would not even be used ..especially in poor penetration ??) to get a true count of +3 after only the first few hands … With KO , it just never seems to happen !
KO and Hi-Lo are both getting you to the same information, just in slightly different ways. Hi-Lo is not more likely to give you a plus situation than KO.
(The one thing that Hi-Lo CAN do is give you an idea of how big your edge is in a particular spot, not just KO’s Yes-Or-No information. To get that extra info via Hi-Lo, you have to deal with the complexity of converting to a true count, which KO does not require.)
And for your other question, yes, you still need to account for all the unseen decks, even those behind the cut card.