Lesson 13 – The Advanced Course – Part 1

The most powerful (legal) means of overcoming the casino’s edge in Blackjack is to vary your bets according to the true count. Additional gains of .2 to .3% are available to those who also vary the play of their hands according to the true count. You undoubtedly have had situations where the count was sky-high and just knew that hitting that 12 against the dealer’s 3 was going to get you a face card. There is a point, as measured by true count, where standing with a 12 against a 3 is more profitable than hitting. This is called a ‘basic strategy variation’ and you’ll learn a lot of them in this series.

Basic Strategy Variations

Modifying the play of your hand according to the true count will occur about 10% of the time. Should the count drop, you will double less, hit ‘stiff’ hands more and split pairs less often. As the count goes up, you will double more often, hit ‘stiffs’ less and split pairs more. For each basic strategy play, there is only one variation. For example, the variation for the hand 10, 6 versus 10 is to stand instead of hit; you would never double and you obviously may not split. Another example is 5,4 versus 2. Basic strategy says to hit, but if the count is high enough, you would double this hand. A good example on the minus side is A-2 versus 5; basic strategy says to double, but if the count is below 0, you should just hit. The easy way to remember something like that is “Double Ace-2 vs. 5 at 0 or higher.” Broken down into the ‘shorthand’ of a flashcard it is A-2 vs. 5 = 0. (Yes, we’ll be going back to our old friends, the flashcards.)

The Power of Basic Strategy Variations

The value of any variation is determined by how often it will, on average, be used. If you play 100,000 hands of Blackjack a year ( about 20 hours a week, year round), you can expect to see a hand of 16 vs. 10 about 3500 times (3.5%). That’s actually the number 1 non-insurance situation. Any variation here has considerable value, simply because you’ll be using it relatively often. Conversely, you will receive 9,9 vs. 2 only 43 times in that 100,000-hand sample, so the variation here is of little value, because you’ll rarely use it. The frequency of hands allows us to prioritize the learning of basic strategy variations.

One of the most important variations from basic strategy is the insurance bet. Since the dealer will show an Ace as an up card about 7.5% of the time, knowing when it’s profitable to take insurance is very important. If you are playing at a six deck game, insurance is worthwhile when the true count is 3 or higher. You should always make the insurance bet at that point, regardless of what cards you’re holding, since it has no relationship with your hand. The High/Low counting system has an ‘Insurance Efficiency’ of 80% which means that 8 out of 10 times you’ll be doing the right thing when you make an insurance bet based on the true count.

As I mentioned earlier, considerable value is gained by learning those variations which involve starting hands of 12-16 vs. any up card, since those are the hands you’ll see most often. In fact, fully 54% of all your hands will be ‘stiff’ at some point in the playing. This is a good place to make an important point: basic strategy variations apply not just to your starting hands, but also to hands composed of 3 or more cards. You will stand on A, 2, 10, 3 versus 10 if the count is 0 or higher, as well as a hand of 10, 6. Doubling (or not doubling) is next in importance and splitting/not splitting pairs is least important.

The Value of Basic Strategy Variations

It’s safe to say that utilizing these variations will increase your winnings by 10% in the six-deck game. But there’s a major side-benefit to them as well. By using these variations, you’ll look more like a ‘gambler’ in the casino. Hitting 16 against 10 some of the time and standing on it at other times is typical gambler behavior. For those casino supervisors who know proper basic strategy (damn few!), seeing you double A,7 versus 2 is crazy, just as standing with 15 against a 10 is ‘chicken’. Yet, all of those are — at certain counts — the correct play.

If you play at a single-deck game, the value of variations to basic strategy soars to 25% or more. If you spend any time at those games, you must learn them.

In the next lesson, I’ll show you how to learn these variations



All material in the Blackjack School is © Copyright 2007 The GameMaster Online, Inc.

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Jake
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Jake

Hi Ken,

So these variations are done according to the true count not the running count?

Thanks.

Barry
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Barry

Jake,
yes, the variations change according to the true count. However 16 vs 10 changes from hit to stand at even a plus 1 running count and 12 vs 4 , 9 vs 3 , A2 vs 5 , 3,3 vs 2, A4 vs 4 change at even a -1 running count. You then continue to calculate the the variations based on the true count… so +1 t.c = A7 vs 2, A7 vs A, A8 vs 6, 11 vs A and A3 vs 4.

Barry
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Barry

Hi Ken, I’m right at the beginning of my c.c career and would like to thank you for the help you have provided via these lessons, for me the most difficult part has been memorising the 41 variations -3 to + 10… I’m curious as to why you haven’t included the 10,10 vs 6 split at T.C +4 and 10,10 vs 5 split at T.C +5. Is it for camouflage motives? Also why does the European basic strategy version (no peek) entail not splitting A,A against an A whereas the American version denotes split? I’m wondering whether I need to… Read more »

Brad
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Brad

Thanks, great answer, I am now very comfortable to continuing memorizing and using the indexes from you cards.

Brad
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Brad

Ken, I have a set of your cards and have CVBJ and a copy of Wong’s Professional Blackjack and when I compare all three using the same set of rules I get different indexes, (granted only off by one true count here and there) how do I decide which index is best ?

Stefan
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Stefan

Ken just from curiocity asking?how many systems counting do u know?general you sound like a guy who knows whats he says very serious !also at your opinion how many hours u believe that someone needs in the kitchen table in order to say that he is ready for the tables?

Luis Beckert
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Luis Beckert

Ken ,

I have a place to play eight decks, H17 , DAS Later Surrender , Peek , penetration 75 % .
I can get on the table when you see fit.
Making a fixed bet of $ 100 when the count is above +1 , which my theoretical profit after 1,000 hands bet ?

Brad
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Brad

What would you recommend for books beyond Wong’s Professional blackjack, for someone who wants to really learn hi-lo count and the play as informed as possible?

Brad
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Brad

I am using your cards to learn my index numbers, are they base on truncate, floor, round or statistical round of true count? Also I see some variances in what people say the illustrious 18 is and what the index numbers are, what are the index numbers that I should use for I 18? I see different numbers for 12 v 2, 12 v 3 and 10 v A. I really want to learn to play perfectly.

Brad
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Brad

So with flooring if you have 4 decks remaining and a running count of -3 it would be considered a -1 true and a running count of -5 would play as a true count of -2 and so on ?

mike
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mike

I have a question about playing at home and playing at the casino. Why is it when i play at home i can win and at the casino its lot harder to beat. At the casino the dealer seems to always win. Is it the way the cards get shuffled? I think that i shuffle very good and it is much different at the tables.

Jim
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Jim

Hi Ken, I wen to Casino a few time with won and lost, get almost even now. For the novice like me with $1000 in pocket, do you have some suggestion when should I leaving the table? should I set a wining and losing limit? or just one shoe or two or more?

when do you decide your are going to leaving the table?

Thank you very much for all your reply.

Jim
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Jim

Thank you very much for your prompt replying.

I have another question, I just find out that in your lesson 20 you play $10 min with a $3,000 bankroll. does $3,000 bankroll can be enough for all the loss in one session if I can count and play properly with 1-6 spread ? do I have to take $3,000 cash in my pocket when I am going to play?(silly question for sure but like to know) Thanks,

Jim
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Jim

Hi Ken,

Thanks for creating this great website and I like the discussion here as well.

my local casinos use machine shuffle for all $5 min tables(shuffle ever one deck), hand shuffle for $10 min tables.
I have to sit at $10 table if I am going to counting,but if I only have $1,000 bankroll, do your have some strategy for the people who don’t have enough bankroll to play? or should I wait until I get $10,000 bankroll?

Josh
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Josh

Why would you take insurance with a count of 3? That would leave 16 opportunities for dealer BJ (10s) and 33 opportunities to lose the insurance bet (non-10s) per deck. You’ll only win the insurance bet 32.7% of the time. That leaves a overall payout of -2.0%. Or are you using a different counting method? A count of +4 would seem like the obvious breakeven point to me.

Josh
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Josh

*Payout of -3.125%

Justin
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Justin

Right on Dwight, me too. I just started going to the casino, and it’s been fun. I’m ready to start practicing to get my money back.

Dwight Frostt
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Dwight Frostt

Now I have to go back to lesson 1 and see if I can force myself to start practicing the “counting”…I guess