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I have a question regarding the logic of these variations (and actually, card counting in general now that I think about it).
Say you have a hard 15 against the dealer’s 7. You say to stand if the count is above 10. The reasoning behind this is that with a high count, there is a much higher percentage that the next card is a high card and that you will bust. However, under this same logic, there is ALSO a very high percentage that the dealer’s hole card is a face card, since the hole card is unknown and is subject to the same probability as the rest of the deck. Meaning that there is a high chance that your 15 will lose to the dealer’s 7.
I know you said in a different comment not to focus on the “why”, but I’ve realized that the dealer’s hole card should be seriously considered with the count in mind. Do these indexes account for the hole card? Are there computer simulations or other data that demonstrate the validity of these indexes?
Also, quick unrelated follow-up question: Did you ever re-calculate the table in Lesson 9 about Standard Deviation? It was calculated using a flat $12 bet, not a spread. If you haven’t gotten to this yet, could you point me in the direction of some software or something that I could use to run simulations/calculations myself? I could save you some time and send you the results, if so.
All of these factors are included in the calculations for index numbers. You are right that in high counts the dealer is more likely to have pat 20. If he does, your decision to hit or stand is actually less important, because you could safely hit and still lose the hand. The same software I recommend for simulations (CVData from qfit.com) always allows you to verify all these kinds of things, and generate your own custom indexes.
Hola Ken. Llevo años jugando a estrategia básica y estoy empezando a aprender a contar correctamente. Me voy de viaje a Connecticut y voy a jugar en MS. El BSE dice que hay que rendirse 16 contra un 10, lo entiendo, pero dice que hay que quedarse si no hay rendición. Nunca me he quedado en 16 contra 10, ¿es eso matemáticamente correcto?
Gracias,
Glen
Gracias Ken. He leído el artículo y haré lo que dice tu EEB. Sólo quería asegurarme. Mi mujer y mis amigos me van a mirar raro cuando vean estas obras.
Me encanta su sitio,
Gracias de nuevo,
Glen
Buena suerte. Recuerde que los consejos de 16vT se basan en un juego que ofrece la posibilidad de rendirse. Si no hay rendición, pida todos los 16s de dos cartas contra un diez del crupier, y puede plantarse en cualquier 16s de tres o más cartas contra un diez.
Hola de nuevo Ken.
Yo estaba usando su entrenador con la rendición como una opción para practicar BS e iba a practicar un poco de conteo, así, pero cuando se rinde no muestra la tarjeta del distribuidor agujero. ¿Hay alguna manera de conseguir que muestre la carta descubierta del crupier o debo contarla como -1, o 0?
Ignora cualquier carta no vista. Esencialmente reduce la penetración en una carta. La nueva versión del entrenador no tendrá este problema. Gracias por recordármelo.
Tampoco estoy seguro si son H17 o S17, pero si es H17 dice que te rindas, o que te quedes con 17 contra un As. Ok, pues nunca me he quedado con 16 contra 10 y nunca me he rendido con un 17. ¿Puedes ayudarme a entender estas 2 jugadas?
Gracias de nuevo,
Glen
Para 16vT, véase el artículo que enlacé en mi última respuesta.
Para rendirse 17vA (correcto cuando el crupier tiene un 17 blando), bueno, 17 contra un As es una mano muy débil. Es incluso peor cuando el crupier tiene un 17 blando, porque no puede dar la vuelta a un 6 para un empujón inmediato en la mano. Es suficiente para que los números se inclinen ligeramente a favor de rendirse en lugar de plantarse. De nuevo, esto es SÓLO en el juego H17. En el juego S17, deberías plantarte con 17vA.
I’d really like to buy your cards, but you don’t have the specific card I need… Do you know the indices for a 4D, H17, DAS, No surrender, Peek, game? If not, do you know where I could find them (without buying $200 software….)?
Because KO is an unbalanced count, your ability to use indexes is sharply reduced. Really, if you want to use indexes with KO, they need to be generated exactly for your game. Changing the penetration will change the indexes. And you always have less accuracy for strategy variation when you don’t have a true count to use for it. KO is powerful and simple, but this is one of the downsides.
There is a new version of the KO book coming out soon. Perhaps it will talk more about this.
Just want to be sure I understand . . . it is possible in a game with only 75% penetration (standard deck and half cut out from a six deck shoe) to have a true-count north of +9, right. It doesn’t happen that often but there have definitely been times when 1/2 of the six deck shoe has been cashed and the running count is 20 thus making the true-count – if I understand your teachings correctly – +10, right?
He estado contando por cerca de tres años usando este curso y hecho cerca de 13K. Desgraciadamente, me han expulsado de cuatro casinos. Es cierto que estoy constantemente ayudando a los demás y más o menos siempre hago la apuesta mínima . . sin riñonera, tampoco.
I understand that you don’t know which card the clueless guy is going to draw. But people don’t usually get upset when someone does a crazy movie like hitting a 16 vs a dealer 6 until they see the outcome. I’ve seen players keep their mouth shut and say yay you saved the table and you killed the table. Me personally if someone does something like that, I just look to see if that mistake effected me that hand. Even if it does I don’t say anything but it just sucks to know you would have won a hand if someone played basic strat. This is all hindsight I’m not talking about before the outcome.
I have a question regarding the logic of these variations (and actually, card counting in general now that I think about it).
Say you have a hard 15 against the dealer’s 7. You say to stand if the count is above 10. The reasoning behind this is that with a high count, there is a much higher percentage that the next card is a high card and that you will bust. However, under this same logic, there is ALSO a very high percentage that the dealer’s hole card is a face card, since the hole card is unknown and is subject to the same probability as the rest of the deck. Meaning that there is a high chance that your 15 will lose to the dealer’s 7.
I know you said in a different comment not to focus on the “why”, but I’ve realized that the dealer’s hole card should be seriously considered with the count in mind. Do these indexes account for the hole card? Are there computer simulations or other data that demonstrate the validity of these indexes?
Also, quick unrelated follow-up question: Did you ever re-calculate the table in Lesson 9 about Standard Deviation? It was calculated using a flat $12 bet, not a spread. If you haven’t gotten to this yet, could you point me in the direction of some software or something that I could use to run simulations/calculations myself? I could save you some time and send you the results, if so.
All of these factors are included in the calculations for index numbers. You are right that in high counts the dealer is more likely to have pat 20. If he does, your decision to hit or stand is actually less important, because you could safely hit and still lose the hand. The same software I recommend for simulations (CVData from qfit.com) always allows you to verify all these kinds of things, and generate your own custom indexes.
For a visual example, see https://www.card-counting.com/cvcxonlineviewer3.htm
So far, I have not had time to rework Lesson 9 and it’s SD information. My sole focus right now is the new version of the trainer.
Hola Ken. Llevo años jugando a estrategia básica y estoy empezando a aprender a contar correctamente. Me voy de viaje a Connecticut y voy a jugar en MS. El BSE dice que hay que rendirse 16 contra un 10, lo entiendo, pero dice que hay que quedarse si no hay rendición. Nunca me he quedado en 16 contra 10, ¿es eso matemáticamente correcto?
Gracias,
Glen
Esa es la extraña situación del gráfico de estrategia que más correo crea aquí.
Véase 16vT: RS. ¿WTF?
Gracias Ken. He leído el artículo y haré lo que dice tu EEB. Sólo quería asegurarme. Mi mujer y mis amigos me van a mirar raro cuando vean estas obras.
Me encanta su sitio,
Gracias de nuevo,
Glen
Buena suerte. Recuerde que los consejos de 16vT se basan en un juego que ofrece la posibilidad de rendirse. Si no hay rendición, pida todos los 16s de dos cartas contra un diez del crupier, y puede plantarse en cualquier 16s de tres o más cartas contra un diez.
Hola de nuevo Ken.
Yo estaba usando su entrenador con la rendición como una opción para practicar BS e iba a practicar un poco de conteo, así, pero cuando se rinde no muestra la tarjeta del distribuidor agujero. ¿Hay alguna manera de conseguir que muestre la carta descubierta del crupier o debo contarla como -1, o 0?
Ignora cualquier carta no vista. Esencialmente reduce la penetración en una carta. La nueva versión del entrenador no tendrá este problema. Gracias por recordármelo.
Tampoco estoy seguro si son H17 o S17, pero si es H17 dice que te rindas, o que te quedes con 17 contra un As. Ok, pues nunca me he quedado con 16 contra 10 y nunca me he rendido con un 17. ¿Puedes ayudarme a entender estas 2 jugadas?
Gracias de nuevo,
Glen
Para 16vT, véase el artículo que enlacé en mi última respuesta.
Para rendirse 17vA (correcto cuando el crupier tiene un 17 blando), bueno, 17 contra un As es una mano muy débil. Es incluso peor cuando el crupier tiene un 17 blando, porque no puede dar la vuelta a un 6 para un empujón inmediato en la mano. Es suficiente para que los números se inclinen ligeramente a favor de rendirse en lugar de plantarse. De nuevo, esto es SÓLO en el juego H17. En el juego S17, deberías plantarte con 17vA.
That makes sense. Thanks for the quick response. Love your website
I’d really like to buy your cards, but you don’t have the specific card I need… Do you know the indices for a 4D, H17, DAS, No surrender, Peek, game? If not, do you know where I could find them (without buying $200 software….)?
Whoops, forgot to mention the key difference: I use KO, not Hi-Lo
Because KO is an unbalanced count, your ability to use indexes is sharply reduced. Really, if you want to use indexes with KO, they need to be generated exactly for your game. Changing the penetration will change the indexes. And you always have less accuracy for strategy variation when you don’t have a true count to use for it. KO is powerful and simple, but this is one of the downsides.
There is a new version of the KO book coming out soon. Perhaps it will talk more about this.
Thanks for that. I’ll just use the HiLo system in that case and get the cards. It’s worth it just to support this site!
Question: when I buy them, can you send them electronically or do I have to wait for them in the mail?
The cards are only available in physical form, and I have moved all distribution to Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982119178/?tag=theblackjacbasic
Just want to be sure I understand . . . it is possible in a game with only 75% penetration (standard deck and half cut out from a six deck shoe) to have a true-count north of +9, right. It doesn’t happen that often but there have definitely been times when 1/2 of the six deck shoe has been cashed and the running count is 20 thus making the true-count – if I understand your teachings correctly – +10, right?
He estado contando por cerca de tres años usando este curso y hecho cerca de 13K. Desgraciadamente, me han expulsado de cuatro casinos. Es cierto que estoy constantemente ayudando a los demás y más o menos siempre hago la apuesta mínima . . sin riñonera, tampoco.
apuesta mínima un principio de zapato nuevo
I understand that you don’t know which card the clueless guy is going to draw. But people don’t usually get upset when someone does a crazy movie like hitting a 16 vs a dealer 6 until they see the outcome. I’ve seen players keep their mouth shut and say yay you saved the table and you killed the table. Me personally if someone does something like that, I just look to see if that mistake effected me that hand. Even if it does I don’t say anything but it just sucks to know you would have won a hand if someone played basic strat. This is all hindsight I’m not talking about before the outcome.