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I have a question regarding the logic of these variations (and actually, card counting in general now that I think about it).
Say you have a hard 15 against the dealer’s 7. You say to stand if the count is above 10. The reasoning behind this is that with a high count, there is a much higher percentage that the next card is a high card and that you will bust. However, under this same logic, there is ALSO a very high percentage that the dealer’s hole card is a face card, since the hole card is unknown and is subject to the same probability as the rest of the deck. Meaning that there is a high chance that your 15 will lose to the dealer’s 7.
I know you said in a different comment not to focus on the “why”, but I’ve realized that the dealer’s hole card should be seriously considered with the count in mind. Do these indexes account for the hole card? Are there computer simulations or other data that demonstrate the validity of these indexes?
Also, quick unrelated follow-up question: Did you ever re-calculate the table in Lesson 9 about Standard Deviation? It was calculated using a flat $12 bet, not a spread. If you haven’t gotten to this yet, could you point me in the direction of some software or something that I could use to run simulations/calculations myself? I could save you some time and send you the results, if so.
All of these factors are included in the calculations for index numbers. You are right that in high counts the dealer is more likely to have pat 20. If he does, your decision to hit or stand is actually less important, because you could safely hit and still lose the hand. The same software I recommend for simulations (CVData from qfit.com) always allows you to verify all these kinds of things, and generate your own custom indexes.
Ciao Ken. Ho giocato per anni a strategia di base e sto iniziando a imparare a contare correttamente. Sto per fare un viaggio in Connecticut e giocherò al MS. L'ESB dice di arrendersi a 16 contro 10, lo capisco, ma dice di rimanere se non ci sono arresti. Non sono mai rimasto su 16 contro 10, è davvero matematicamente corretto?
Grazie,
Glen
Grazie Ken. Ho letto l'articolo e farò come dice il tuo BSE. Volevo solo essere sicuro. Mia moglie e i miei amici mi guarderanno in modo strano quando vedranno questi spettacoli.
Adoro il vostro sito,
Grazie ancora,
Glen
Buona fortuna! Ricordate che i consigli di 16vT si basano su un gioco che offre la resa. Se non c'è la resa, allora colpisci tutte le 16 a due carte contro un dieci del banco, e puoi stare su qualsiasi 16 a tre o più carte contro un dieci.
Ciao di nuovo Ken.
Stavo usando il vostro trainer con il surrender come opzione per esercitarmi con il BS e stavo per esercitarmi anche con un po' di conteggio, ma durante il surrender non mostra la hole card del dealer. C'è un modo per far sì che mostri la carta coperta del dealer o devo contarla come un -1 o uno 0?
Ignora tutte le carte non viste. In pratica riduce la penetrazione di una carta. La nuova versione dell'allenatore non avrà questo problema. Grazie per avermelo ricordato!
Inoltre non sono sicuro se si tratti di H17 o S17, ma se si tratta di H17 dice di arrendersi o di rimanere con il 17 contro un Asso. Ok, quindi non sono mai rimasto in piedi con il 16 contro il 10 e non ho mai ceduto un 17. Potete aiutarmi a capire queste due giocate?
Grazie ancora,
Glen
Per il 16vT, vedere l'articolo che ho linkato nella mia ultima risposta.
Per quanto riguarda la resa di 17vA (corretta quando il dealer colpisce un 17 morbido), beh, 17 contro un Asso è una mano molto debole. È resa ancora peggiore quando il dealer colpisce un 17 morbido, perché non può girare un 6 per un push immediato sulla mano. È quanto basta per far pendere i numeri leggermente a favore della resa rispetto allo stare in piedi. Di nuovo, questo vale SOLO per il gioco H17. Nel gioco S17, dovreste stare con 17vA.
I’d really like to buy your cards, but you don’t have the specific card I need… Do you know the indices for a 4D, H17, DAS, No surrender, Peek, game? If not, do you know where I could find them (without buying $200 software….)?
Because KO is an unbalanced count, your ability to use indexes is sharply reduced. Really, if you want to use indexes with KO, they need to be generated exactly for your game. Changing the penetration will change the indexes. And you always have less accuracy for strategy variation when you don’t have a true count to use for it. KO is powerful and simple, but this is one of the downsides.
There is a new version of the KO book coming out soon. Perhaps it will talk more about this.
Just want to be sure I understand . . . it is possible in a game with only 75% penetration (standard deck and half cut out from a six deck shoe) to have a true-count north of +9, right. It doesn’t happen that often but there have definitely been times when 1/2 of the six deck shoe has been cashed and the running count is 20 thus making the true-count – if I understand your teachings correctly – +10, right?
I have been counting for about three years now using this course and made about 13K. Unfortunately, I have been banned from four casinos. Admittedly, I am constantly helping others and more or less always make the minimum bet . . . no fanny-pack, either.
I understand that you don’t know which card the clueless guy is going to draw. But people don’t usually get upset when someone does a crazy movie like hitting a 16 vs a dealer 6 until they see the outcome. I’ve seen players keep their mouth shut and say yay you saved the table and you killed the table. Me personally if someone does something like that, I just look to see if that mistake effected me that hand. Even if it does I don’t say anything but it just sucks to know you would have won a hand if someone played basic strat. This is all hindsight I’m not talking about before the outcome.
I have a question regarding the logic of these variations (and actually, card counting in general now that I think about it).
Say you have a hard 15 against the dealer’s 7. You say to stand if the count is above 10. The reasoning behind this is that with a high count, there is a much higher percentage that the next card is a high card and that you will bust. However, under this same logic, there is ALSO a very high percentage that the dealer’s hole card is a face card, since the hole card is unknown and is subject to the same probability as the rest of the deck. Meaning that there is a high chance that your 15 will lose to the dealer’s 7.
I know you said in a different comment not to focus on the “why”, but I’ve realized that the dealer’s hole card should be seriously considered with the count in mind. Do these indexes account for the hole card? Are there computer simulations or other data that demonstrate the validity of these indexes?
Also, quick unrelated follow-up question: Did you ever re-calculate the table in Lesson 9 about Standard Deviation? It was calculated using a flat $12 bet, not a spread. If you haven’t gotten to this yet, could you point me in the direction of some software or something that I could use to run simulations/calculations myself? I could save you some time and send you the results, if so.
All of these factors are included in the calculations for index numbers. You are right that in high counts the dealer is more likely to have pat 20. If he does, your decision to hit or stand is actually less important, because you could safely hit and still lose the hand. The same software I recommend for simulations (CVData from qfit.com) always allows you to verify all these kinds of things, and generate your own custom indexes.
For a visual example, see https://www.card-counting.com/cvcxonlineviewer3.htm
So far, I have not had time to rework Lesson 9 and it’s SD information. My sole focus right now is the new version of the trainer.
Ciao Ken. Ho giocato per anni a strategia di base e sto iniziando a imparare a contare correttamente. Sto per fare un viaggio in Connecticut e giocherò al MS. L'ESB dice di arrendersi a 16 contro 10, lo capisco, ma dice di rimanere se non ci sono arresti. Non sono mai rimasto su 16 contro 10, è davvero matematicamente corretto?
Grazie,
Glen
Questa è la strana situazione del grafico strategico che crea più posta di qualsiasi altra qui.
Vedi 16vT: RS. WTF?
Grazie Ken. Ho letto l'articolo e farò come dice il tuo BSE. Volevo solo essere sicuro. Mia moglie e i miei amici mi guarderanno in modo strano quando vedranno questi spettacoli.
Adoro il vostro sito,
Grazie ancora,
Glen
Buona fortuna! Ricordate che i consigli di 16vT si basano su un gioco che offre la resa. Se non c'è la resa, allora colpisci tutte le 16 a due carte contro un dieci del banco, e puoi stare su qualsiasi 16 a tre o più carte contro un dieci.
Ciao di nuovo Ken.
Stavo usando il vostro trainer con il surrender come opzione per esercitarmi con il BS e stavo per esercitarmi anche con un po' di conteggio, ma durante il surrender non mostra la hole card del dealer. C'è un modo per far sì che mostri la carta coperta del dealer o devo contarla come un -1 o uno 0?
Ignora tutte le carte non viste. In pratica riduce la penetrazione di una carta. La nuova versione dell'allenatore non avrà questo problema. Grazie per avermelo ricordato!
Inoltre non sono sicuro se si tratti di H17 o S17, ma se si tratta di H17 dice di arrendersi o di rimanere con il 17 contro un Asso. Ok, quindi non sono mai rimasto in piedi con il 16 contro il 10 e non ho mai ceduto un 17. Potete aiutarmi a capire queste due giocate?
Grazie ancora,
Glen
Per il 16vT, vedere l'articolo che ho linkato nella mia ultima risposta.
Per quanto riguarda la resa di 17vA (corretta quando il dealer colpisce un 17 morbido), beh, 17 contro un Asso è una mano molto debole. È resa ancora peggiore quando il dealer colpisce un 17 morbido, perché non può girare un 6 per un push immediato sulla mano. È quanto basta per far pendere i numeri leggermente a favore della resa rispetto allo stare in piedi. Di nuovo, questo vale SOLO per il gioco H17. Nel gioco S17, dovreste stare con 17vA.
That makes sense. Thanks for the quick response. Love your website
I’d really like to buy your cards, but you don’t have the specific card I need… Do you know the indices for a 4D, H17, DAS, No surrender, Peek, game? If not, do you know where I could find them (without buying $200 software….)?
Whoops, forgot to mention the key difference: I use KO, not Hi-Lo
Because KO is an unbalanced count, your ability to use indexes is sharply reduced. Really, if you want to use indexes with KO, they need to be generated exactly for your game. Changing the penetration will change the indexes. And you always have less accuracy for strategy variation when you don’t have a true count to use for it. KO is powerful and simple, but this is one of the downsides.
There is a new version of the KO book coming out soon. Perhaps it will talk more about this.
Thanks for that. I’ll just use the HiLo system in that case and get the cards. It’s worth it just to support this site!
Question: when I buy them, can you send them electronically or do I have to wait for them in the mail?
The cards are only available in physical form, and I have moved all distribution to Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982119178/?tag=theblackjacbasic
Just want to be sure I understand . . . it is possible in a game with only 75% penetration (standard deck and half cut out from a six deck shoe) to have a true-count north of +9, right. It doesn’t happen that often but there have definitely been times when 1/2 of the six deck shoe has been cashed and the running count is 20 thus making the true-count – if I understand your teachings correctly – +10, right?
I have been counting for about three years now using this course and made about 13K. Unfortunately, I have been banned from four casinos. Admittedly, I am constantly helping others and more or less always make the minimum bet . . . no fanny-pack, either.
minimum bet a beginning of new shoe
I understand that you don’t know which card the clueless guy is going to draw. But people don’t usually get upset when someone does a crazy movie like hitting a 16 vs a dealer 6 until they see the outcome. I’ve seen players keep their mouth shut and say yay you saved the table and you killed the table. Me personally if someone does something like that, I just look to see if that mistake effected me that hand. Even if it does I don’t say anything but it just sucks to know you would have won a hand if someone played basic strat. This is all hindsight I’m not talking about before the outcome.