Well, I’m definitely glad that is over. Ten hours of Pharaoh’s Casino single deck with no variation of my bet was a pretty boring sentence to serve. Click, click, click.
Actually, only nine hours and 53 minutes. That’s right, I ran out of money with 7 minutes to go, and I just didn’t see the point of depositing again for just 7 minutes of play.
It was a fitting end to a roller coaster ride I guess, though I certainly would have preferred the ending where I cash out a four-figure bankroll instead. Well, that’s the way it goes with gambling. One day it’s chicken, the next day it’s feathers.
I thought I had a good chance at surviving the day, until the last twenty minutes were all downhill. My buy-in threshold was going to be $40. If my balance dipped below $40, I would be unable to play correct basic strategy in the event of a split and double on both hands. Five times I dropped down to $45 and placed a bet. Four times I won it. On the fifth, I didn’t.
Ending like this is certainly a change of fate from a few days back when my bankroll peaked at $1085 during the play of day six. I’m sure I’ll hear from the conspiracy theorists now saying the casino must have “flipped the switch” to get my profits back. But I don’t believe that for a minute. I’ve played many thousands of hands online over the last few years, and my results are very close to what the math would suggest.
I believe this game is fair, and I think that’s true of the games of all the major online casino software brands. Consider this: If the games were rigged, we’d still be in the heydey of online bonuses. Those have mostly dried up these days, replaced with non-withdrawable bonuses that have to be played on slots, where the house edge eliminates the profitability. If the games were rigged, the casinos would have no need to water down these marketing tools that are so helpful in drawing new customers.
Look at what’s happened to this very game at Pharaoh’s. Over the last couple of years, the maximum bet has been reduced to its current level of $50. The game has been intentionally slowed (though you guys accustomed to 60 hands an hour at land-based casinos may find that hard to believe). Also, the single deck doesn’t count for bonus wagering, nor does it earn comp points. What’s left is a profitable play for the perfect basic strategy player, but not by much. 0.11% just isn’t much of an edge. A player betting the table max can expect to make $14.85 an hour over the long run. I’ll assure you after playing this game for ten hours I can’t imagine a worse way to make $14.85. From where I sit, this looks like a classic loss-leader situation, where the casino is willing to allow a handful of players a miniscule advantage for the advertising appeal. After all, this casino likely wouldn’t be listed at my site at all if it weren’t for this game.
It only takes one slot player at the casino to offset about 30 perfect strategy blackjack players, and that assumes those players never make a mistake, and never play another game at the casino.
My hope in this exercise was to illustrate a few things about gambling, and particularly about games with a small player edge. The main thought you should take from this monologue is that short-term results are basically meaningless, whether you are a card counter with a 1% edge, or a hopeful basic strategy player with only 0.11% the best of it.
Let me state that again:
Short-term results are basically meaningless.
And for most gambling games, the mathematical ‘short-term’ lasts a really long time. I could bore you with a long explanation using variance, standard deviation and a number called N0. But those of you who would understand that explanation probably don’t need it explained at all.
Some of you might be tempted to shrug your shoulders after all this and say “Well, there are no sure things in gambling.” I definitely disagree. There are plenty of sure things in gambling, but most of them take a long time to play out with certainty. All along the way, our simultaneous friend and foe Lady Luck will do her best to distract us with meaningless noise.
Today’s summary (day 10):
Starting Bankroll: $320
Low point today: $0 (-$320)
High point today: $380 (+$60)
Ending Bankroll: Nada (-$320)
257 hands @ $10 each
My blackjacks today: 11
Dealer blackjacks today: 17
(No blackjacks tied today.)
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Overall result for 2689 hands was a loss of $200.
The expected win of that action is 2689 * $10 * 0.11% = $29.58.
Both the dealer and player hand in a single deck should expect to see a blackjack on 4.83% of their hands. For this sample, that’s 129.9 blackjacks each. The actual numbers were:
For me: 135 blackjacks
For the dealer: 119 blackjacks
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