Blackjack and Blackjack Tournaments

Well, I’m definitely glad that is over. Ten hours of Pharaoh’s Casino single deck with no variation of my bet was a pretty boring sentence to serve. Click, click, click.

Actually, only nine hours and 53 minutes. That’s right, I ran out of money with 7 minutes to go, and I just didn’t see the point of depositing again for just 7 minutes of play.

It was a fitting end to a roller coaster ride I guess, though I certainly would have preferred the ending where I cash out a four-figure bankroll instead. Well, that’s the way it goes with gambling. One day it’s chicken, the next day it’s feathers.

I thought I had a good chance at surviving the day, until the last twenty minutes were all downhill. My buy-in threshold was going to be $40. If my balance dipped below $40, I would be unable to play correct basic strategy in the event of a split and double on both hands. Five times I dropped down to $45 and placed a bet. Four times I won it. On the fifth, I didn’t.

Ending like this is certainly a change of fate from a few days back when my bankroll peaked at $1085 during the play of day six. I’m sure I’ll hear from the conspiracy theorists now saying the casino must have “flipped the switch” to get my profits back. But I don’t believe that for a minute. I’ve played many thousands of hands online over the last few years, and my results are very close to what the math would suggest.

I believe this game is fair, and I think that’s true of the games of all the major online casino software brands. Consider this: If the games were rigged, we’d still be in the heydey of online bonuses. Those have mostly dried up these days, replaced with non-withdrawable bonuses that have to be played on slots, where the house edge eliminates the profitability. If the games were rigged, the casinos would have no need to water down these marketing tools that are so helpful in drawing new customers.

Look at what’s happened to this very game at Pharaoh’s. Over the last couple of years, the maximum bet has been reduced to its current level of $50. The game has been intentionally slowed (though you guys accustomed to 60 hands an hour at land-based casinos may find that hard to believe). Also, the single deck doesn’t count for bonus wagering, nor does it earn comp points. What’s left is a profitable play for the perfect basic strategy player, but not by much. 0.11% just isn’t much of an edge. A player betting the table max can expect to make $14.85 an hour over the long run. I’ll assure you after playing this game for ten hours I can’t imagine a worse way to make $14.85. From where I sit, this looks like a classic loss-leader situation, where the casino is willing to allow a handful of players a miniscule advantage for the advertising appeal. After all, this casino likely wouldn’t be listed at my site at all if it weren’t for this game.

It only takes one slot player at the casino to offset about 30 perfect strategy blackjack players, and that assumes those players never make a mistake, and never play another game at the casino.

My hope in this exercise was to illustrate a few things about gambling, and particularly about games with a small player edge. The main thought you should take from this monologue is that short-term results are basically meaningless, whether you are a card counter with a 1% edge, or a hopeful basic strategy player with only 0.11% the best of it.

Let me state that again:
Short-term results are basically meaningless.

And for most gambling games, the mathematical ’short-term’ lasts a really long time. I could bore you with a long explanation using variance, standard deviation and a number called N0. But those of you who would understand that explanation probably don’t need it explained at all.

Some of you might be tempted to shrug your shoulders after all this and say “Well, there are no sure things in gambling.” I definitely disagree. There are plenty of sure things in gambling, but most of them take a long time to play out with certainty. All along the way, our simultaneous friend and foe Lady Luck will do her best to distract us with meaningless noise.

Today’s summary (day 10):
Starting Bankroll: $320
Low point today: $0 (-$320)
High point today: $380 (+$60)
Ending Bankroll: Nada (-$320)

257 hands @ $10 each

My blackjacks today: 11
Dealer blackjacks today: 17
(No blackjacks tied today.)

————————–
Overall result for 2689 hands was a loss of $200.
The expected win of that action is 2689 * $10 * 0.11% = $29.58.

Both the dealer and player hand in a single deck should expect to see a blackjack on 4.83% of their hands. For this sample, that’s 129.9 blackjacks each. The actual numbers were:
For me: 135 blackjacks
For the dealer: 119 blackjacks
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Today’s play took a brutal toll on the bankroll, as I dropped back to levels I last saw on day four. Pharaoh’s Casino single deck is the game, and I’m nearing the end of my ten-day blogging experience there.

This game with a razor-thin player advantage delivered some nice wins for me, with my initial $200 bankroll peaking at $1085 on day 6. But most of that profit has evaporated, and I now take only a $320 bank into the final hour of play tomorrow.

Yesterday I noted that I hadn’t yet gotten an opportunity to make an unusual basic strategy play in this game, splitting 7s against a dealer 8. I should be careful what I ask for, as I had that hand twice today. Of the resulting four hands, I had one push and three losses.

I also managed to win the blackjack battle today, outpacing the dealer 15 to 8. But it’s clearly a case of winning the battle and losing the war.

Today’s summary (day 9):
Starting Bankroll: $ 655
Low point today: $280 (-$375)
High point today: $685 (+$30)
Ending Bankroll: $320 (-$335)

275 hands @ $10 each

My blackjacks today: 15
Dealer blackjacks today: 8
(No blackjacks tied.)

———————–
Overall summary: A profit of $120 in 2432 hands.

The big questions: Can I end up with a profit? Will I have to buy-in again on the final day? Come back and find out tomorrow.

Oops! Yesterday’s entry was titled as day 8, and it wasn’t until today that I realized it was actually day 7. Well, the real day 8 went quite a bit better, right from the beginning.

The early part of the hour at Pharaoh’s Casino today had me drawing blackjacks while the dealer went through a blackjack drought. The dealer finally had a blackjack on hand 62, after I had tallied six already. The extra 3:2 payouts helped out today, as I logged an $85 profit on the day.

I had a few interesting hands today. Twice more I made that peculiar basic strategy split of (3,3) vs dealer 8. But again I came up dry, losing all four resulting hands. I’m now 0 for 6 on those split hands. I still haven’t had a chance to make the other odd play that is appropriate in this game, which is splitting (7,7) vs 8.

One of the common mistakes I see at the tables when I play in land-based casinos is the reluctance of many players to split (8,8) vs a dealer ten. In fact, it is number 6 on the Top Ten Basic Strategy Mistakes list that subscribers to my newsletter get for free when they subscribe. While this is a losing hand regardless, splitting is cheaper than either hitting or standing. It’ll save you about 5.2% of your bet size to split the 8s. I split 88vT in today’s session, and had a really nice outcome. I made two 3-card 21s to beat a pat dealer 20. It’s nice when it works out like that.

Today’s summary (the _real_ day 8):
Starting Bankroll: $570
Low Point today: $550 (-$20)
High Point today: $755 (+$185)
Ending bankroll: $655 (+$85)

278 hands@ $10 each

My blackjacks today: 19
Dealer blackjacks today: 13
(No tied blackjacks today.)

——————————-
Overall results after 2157 hands: A profit of $455

Why -oh why - couldn’t I have decided to title this blog ‘A Week of Play at Pharaoh’s Single Deck’? That way I would have been done after yesterday, and I’d be $355 better off as a result.

Today’s hour of play at this game with a 0.11% player advantage didn’t yield up 0.11% of my action as a profit, but instead cost me a considerable 12.5% of my action. Well, I’m still nicely ahead for this experiment, but not like yesterday.

Today’s summary (day 8):
Starting Bankroll: $925
Low point today: $535 (-$390)
High point today: $1005 (+$80)
Ending Bankroll: $570 (-$355)

283 hands @ $10 each.

My blackjacks today: 9
Dealer blackjacks today: 16
(No blackjacks tied today.)

———————————-
Overall summary: I have a profit of $370 after 1879 hands.
With two days to go, I hope I can hang on to a decent profit.

(Yawn.) That pretty much sums up today’s action at the Pharaoh’s Single Deck game.
My hour of play today was noteworthy really only for two points. One, I made several forays into 4-digit bankroll territory despite finishing short of that mark. And two, it’s yet another profitable hour, in a game that might to the unitiated look like my own personal ATM machine. If you paid attention to yesterday’s blog entry, you should know better though.

This game can easily produce both winners and losers, despite a small long-term advantage for the player. Single deck, good rules, 0.11% player edge… Easy money, right? Well, after six hours of play (1596 hands), my current profit is more than 40 times the expected average win at this game. Just how lucky have I been? If I were to start over now, my chance of having this large a profit (or greater) by day six is around 6%.

Today’s summary (day 6):
Starting Bankroll: $890
Low point today: $880 (-$10)
High point today: $1085 (+$195)
Ending Bankroll: $925 (+$35)

270 hands @ $10 each.

My blackjacks today: 11
Dealer blackjacks today: 9
(No blackjacks pushed today.)

—————————————
Overall results: A profit of $725 after 1596 hands.

Woohoo! Today went about as well as it could possibly go.
The fifth hour of my Single Deck Blackjack odyssey is in the books with a big profit.

You know those days where everything just falls your way? This was one of those days. Starting with my $425 bankroll from yesterday, I was up for almost the entire hour today. A few minutes into the round I hit my low point of $365, and it was all up after that.

An appropriate finish for the day was a win on my final bet, which put me at an all-time high so far of $890.

I also had a chance to make a pretty rare basic strategy play today, when I split 3s against a dealer 8. That’s a play that is only correct basic strategy in a single deck game that offers double after split. For the record, I lost both hands. Oh well.

But, hey, with days like today, this game sure looks easy! Of course, I know better. My expected profit to date in this game is under $15, so my actual profit of $690 is WAY above expectation. Another way of looking at that: I was just as likely to have a loss of $660 as a profit of $690 so far. That’s a sobering thought, eh?

Today’s summary (day 5):
Starting Bankroll: $425
Low point today: $365 (-$60)
High point today: $890 (+$465)
Ending Bankroll: $890

One hour of play, 283 hands @ $10 each.

My blackjacks today: 14
Dealer blackjacks today: 15
(One blackjack was a push.)
—————————–
Overall results, $690 profit in 1326 hands.

I made a nice recovery at Pharaoh’s Single Deck Blackjack today.

It didn’t look that way at first, when my day’s starting bankroll of $250 was down to just $150 after twelve hands. However, I got back to even after another 46 hands and never looked back.

If you’re wondering what this post is about, start here instead.

After getting back to my starting point of $250, I made a steady climb today, peaking at $520 about 40 minutes into my hour of play. The last twenty minutes took some of that profit back, and I finished the hour at $425. Darned good day though, and I may just make it all 10 days without having to deposit any more money. We’ll see!

Today’s Summary (day 4):
Starting bankroll: $250
Low point today: $150 (-$100)
High point today: $520 (+$270)
Ending bankroll: $425 (+$175)

One hour of play, 265 hands @ $10 each.

My blackjacks today: 15
Dealer blackjacks today: 9
(No tied blackjacks today.)
—————————————-

Overall results, I’m up $225. Expected win to date, after 1043 hands = $ 11.47.
So, I’ve been pretty lucky so far.

Four days down, six to go.

Another day, another hour of single deck at Pharaoh’s Casino.

If you didn’t see the explanation of what this is about, click here.

Today started off nicely enough. I won the first 4 hands in a row, including 2 double downs. My starting bankroll for the day was $450, and after 7 hands I was up to $520. That was the peak for today though, as what followed was the harshest streak I’ve had so far.

In the next 77 hands, I burned through $350 (35 bets). That took my balance down to a mere $170, $30 under my buy-in two days before. That’s part of my point in this exercise though. This is just par for the course when you’re playing any gambling game. Understanding what losing and winning streaks look like is helpful to anyone who wants to play the game.

I recovered some after that. In fact, I had doubled the $170 back up to $340 and stayed in the low 300s for much of the hour. Another losing streak near the end of the hour had me back to $170, but I never got any lower. I rallied in the last two minutes. On the final hand, I picked up $30 on a hand where I split 22v5 and doubled one of the hands. As the clock struck one hour, the bankroll was back in the black overall, despite a big daily loss.

Today’s summary (day 3):
Starting Bankroll: $450
Low point today: $170 (-$280)
High point today: $520 (+$70)
Ending bankroll: $250 (-$200)

One hour of play, 272 hands @ $10 each. (Playing faster now apparently.)

My blackjacks today: 9
Dealer blackjacks today: 11
(One blackjack was a push.)
———————————————–

Overall results, I’m still ahead of the game by $50. And, that still represents a better than average result. The expected win on this game so far is $8.56.

I just finished today’s one hour of play at Pharaoh’s Casino single deck blackjack.

Today started like yesterday finished, with a nice run of cards. I started the day with a bankroll of $450, and by hand 48 of my play I was up to a nice round figure of $600. That $150 profit would prove to be the high point of my session though. A steady downward trend started in, and by hand 114 I was back to just even.

I headed into the red for quite a while, reaching today’s low point of $355 on hand 157. I waffled around from there, but ended up getting back to exactly even as my self-imposed hour time limit expired.

Today’s summary (day 2):
Starting bankroll: $450
Low point today : $355 (-$95)
High point today: $600 (+$150)
Ending bankroll: $450 (Even)

One hour of play, 260 hands of $10 each.

My blackjacks today: 17
Dealer blackjacks today: 9
(One blackjack was a push.)

I caught almost twice as many blackjacks as the dealer today, and still couldn’t manage a profit.
———————————————
Overall results: I have a profit of $150 so far. After 506 hands played, the expected win for this game is $5060 * 0.11% = $5.57. So, my actual results are the $5.57 expected win plus $144.43 worth of good luck!

I’ve written before about the best single deck blackjack game available on the Internet.
It’s available at Pharaoh’s Casino, powered by Boss Media software.
It’s dealt from a single deck, the dealer stands on all 17s, and you are allowed to double any two cards including after splits. It’s also a full ‘peek’ game, meaning that you know whether the dealer has blackjack before deciding to double or split.

All that adds up to a PLAYER advantage of 0.11%, for just using the correct basic strategy.
I’ve always wanted to spend some time documenting an actual series of sessions at this game, so that players who are new to the game might gain an understanding of what kinds of ups and downs to expect when playing a game like this.

Tonight I began that project. I plan to play this game for one hour each day for the next ten days. Each day, I’ll make a post here describing the day’s action.

The setup: I bought in $200 to start with, and I’ll buy an additional $200 any time my balance drops below $40. I’ll be flat-betting $10 each and every hand. I’ll play exactly one hour each day and stop, win or lose. I’ll use a total-dependent basic strategy, like the one you can produce for this game at the Blackjack Basic Strategy Engine.

I could squeak out an extra few hundredths of a percent at this game if I were to use a strategy that used information about the cards in my hand, such as standing with 16vT if my 16 has 3 or more cards, etc. But, I want to stick to the simplest strategy possible, so I’ll forgo those extra tweaks in the strategy.

So, on to the first day’s play:

I had a brief $10 profit in the first few hands, but that was short-lived. The first half-hour of play was a slow but steady loss. Nothing too drastic, just a string of more losses than wins. At the low point of the session, my starting bankroll of $200 had dwindled to $110. After that, I started to make up some ground.

On hand 132, I doubled A5v4 and won it to get back to my starting bank of $200. After that, I went on a great run that lasted for the rest of today’s hour. My bankroll peaked at a healthy $490, and settled in for a finish of today at $450. Nice start, eh? I’ll definitely take a profit of $250 for day one. I expect I’ll be needing that extra buffer if I hope to make it through without having to deposit more money later.

Today’s summary:
Starting bankroll $200
Low point today: $110
High point today: $490
Ending bankroll: $450

One hour of play, 246 hands @ $10 each.

My blackjacks today: 15
Dealer blackjacks today: 12
(One blackjack was a push.)

Tune in tomorrow for more results from Pharaoh’s.