I’m just back from a blackjack tournament at the Sheraton Casino in Tunica, Mississippi. The venue was new, but the tournament was a familiar one. The former table games manager from Bally’s Tunica has relocated to the Sheraton, and he brought the popular tournaments from that property along with him.

Participation was pretty strong for a first-time event at this casino, with 163 players buying in to the $500 entry fee tournament. The casino paid out over $106,000 in prize money, including an extra $25,000 added to all the entry fees collected. That extra bonus money is a standard feature of these events, and that makes this series of events among the best deals in tournament blackjack. I’m looking forward to their next event, sometime in April or May. They’re shooting for 200 players, and I’m betting they’ll get there.

My own play in the tournament was pretty exciting today. I competed in the semifinal round at 9 AM this morning. The format was for one player of the six at our table to advance to the final table. I gained the chip lead with several hands to go and held on until the finish. On the very last hand there were only three of us left. I had $1927.50 and my nearest competition had only $805. He went all-in, and the only risk I had was if he drew a blackjack. I bet $125, to make sure a win by me would cover his blackjack, but I didn’t need it. When his first card dealt was a four, I was assured a seat at the final table.

At the final table, there were 7 players competing for the prize pool, with first place taking home $50,000. By the middle of the round, my friend Robert Blechman of California had taken a lead of a few hundred dollars. I lost a few hundred dollars of my starting $1000 bankroll chasing him with middle sized bets. With 12 hands remaining of the 25 to be played, I was down to only $600. After seeing Blechman’s bet on that hand, I calculated that a win of his $40 bet would take him to a total bankroll of $1187.50. If I moved all-in now, I could take a $12.50 lead if the dealer pays us both. With 12 hands left, that’s earlier than I am usually willing to risk all my chips, but I decided this might be my last chance to take the lead with one bet.

I moved all-in for $600, but never even got to play the hand. The dealer had a blackjack, and I finished in 7th place. I collected $1500 for my efforts, which is certainly a far cry from the $50,000 that Blechman eventually took home for first place. Still, I think my decisions were sound, and I’d make the same choice again. You just can’t do anything about the way the cards fall. All you can do is make the best choices along the way and hope that Lady Luck smiles when you need her.

It’s worth noting that of the 7 finalists, at least 4 of them are regular visitors to the sister site of BlackjackInfo.com. Check out BlackjackTournaments.com.

If you decide to come to Mississippi in April or May for the next Sheraton event, be sure to tell the table games manager Adolf that Ken Smith sent ya. And, be sure to introduce yourself as well. I’ll be there, hoping to do better than 7th place.

Good cards, -Ken-

Well, the first season of the new Ultimate Blackjack Tour is a wrap.

In a long but very exciting week, filming finished up in late October at CBS Studios in Los Angeles. The more than $1 million in prize money was big news, but the real impact of these events will come once they hit TV. A new twist on the standard blackjack tournament format is guaranteed to spice up the game for television audiences.

The new format is called “Elimination-style blackjack” and it adds a simple but brutal twist to the game. In a 30-hand round, there are also 3 forced elimination hands on the way to the final hand. After hands 8, 16, and 25, the player at the table with the lowest bankroll remaining is immediately eliminated. That means there’s no more dozing off at the table for the first 20 hands of the round. With high-tension decisions every few hands, players have to scramble for position during the entire match. The whole format has a patent pending by the creators.

I’ve played a lot of tournament blackjack over the years, and I’ve never seen anything like this. These rounds were the toughest and most unforgiving of any I’ve ever played. I think that will translate into a real winner for TV. No word yet on when or where they will air, but this was a very elaborate production so it is sure to gain a lot of interest from the networks.

Next year we’ll see a number of developments from UBT, including satellite tournaments at both land-based and online casinos, where everyone has a shot at ending up playing for big bucks under the TV lights.

I’ve been trumpeting 2006 as a banner year for blackjack tournaments, and the UBT is one of the main reasons I believe our time has come. Move over poker, you’ve got company!

I’m just back from Vegas, where I participated in a new series of blackjack tournaments produced for TV. The new Ultimate Blackjack Tour adds some interesting twists to the usual formula of blackjack tournaments, and I think the new format will be great for TV.

Many viewers of previous events have pointed out that only the final few hands of a round hold any excitement. The UBT has added some twists that I think eliminate that complaint. One thing is for sure… The new format is TOUGH! Every single hand you play is important, and the angles and complexity go as deep as you can handle, and then some. I was absolutely exhausted after this week of effort.

I don’t know how much of the results information is supposed to be publicly available, so I won’t disclose any outcomes here. However, the events aren’t complete yet anyway. In Vegas, we filmed seven tournaments, but no final tables. The seven finalists in each event will compete a week from now in Los Angeles on a special set built for the show. Each winner of an event will pick up $50,000, and the top finishers in each event will then compete in a tournament of champions, for another $250,000 first place prize.

The long-term vision for this series is an ongoing World Tour concept, similar to the World Poker Tour. Once the shows begin to air, and the accompanying website launches, the public will be able to enter for a chance to play big money events under the television lights.

This is just the first of three big developments in the 2006 world of tournament blackjack. GSN’s series “World Series of Blackjack” is said to be coming back in 2006, with a satellite tournament process that will allow everyone to participate. The third horse in this Tournament Trifecta is an open event similar to the Hilton’s Million Dollar Tournament. The new “$2 Million Blackjack Tournament” is rumored to be getting set for events to begin in early 2006.

For more discussion and schedules of upcoming events, check out BlackjackTournaments.com.

It’s gonna be a good year. Start working on your tournament chops, and maybe I’ll see YOU in the finals, -Ken-

Well, I’m definitely glad that is over. Ten hours of Pharaoh’s Casino single deck with no variation of my bet was a pretty boring sentence to serve. Click, click, click.

Actually, only nine hours and 53 minutes. That’s right, I ran out of money with 7 minutes to go, and I just didn’t see the point of depositing again for just 7 minutes of play.

It was a fitting end to a roller coaster ride I guess, though I certainly would have preferred the ending where I cash out a four-figure bankroll instead. Well, that’s the way it goes with gambling. One day it’s chicken, the next day it’s feathers.

I thought I had a good chance at surviving the day, until the last twenty minutes were all downhill. My buy-in threshold was going to be $40. If my balance dipped below $40, I would be unable to play correct basic strategy in the event of a split and double on both hands. Five times I dropped down to $45 and placed a bet. Four times I won it. On the fifth, I didn’t.

Ending like this is certainly a change of fate from a few days back when my bankroll peaked at $1085 during the play of day six. I’m sure I’ll hear from the conspiracy theorists now saying the casino must have “flipped the switch” to get my profits back. But I don’t believe that for a minute. I’ve played many thousands of hands online over the last few years, and my results are very close to what the math would suggest.

I believe this game is fair, and I think that’s true of the games of all the major online casino software brands. Consider this: If the games were rigged, we’d still be in the heydey of online bonuses. Those have mostly dried up these days, replaced with non-withdrawable bonuses that have to be played on slots, where the house edge eliminates the profitability. If the games were rigged, the casinos would have no need to water down these marketing tools that are so helpful in drawing new customers.

Look at what’s happened to this very game at Pharaoh’s. Over the last couple of years, the maximum bet has been reduced to its current level of $50. The game has been intentionally slowed (though you guys accustomed to 60 hands an hour at land-based casinos may find that hard to believe). Also, the single deck doesn’t count for bonus wagering, nor does it earn comp points. What’s left is a profitable play for the perfect basic strategy player, but not by much. 0.11% just isn’t much of an edge. A player betting the table max can expect to make $14.85 an hour over the long run. I’ll assure you after playing this game for ten hours I can’t imagine a worse way to make $14.85. From where I sit, this looks like a classic loss-leader situation, where the casino is willing to allow a handful of players a miniscule advantage for the advertising appeal. After all, this casino likely wouldn’t be listed at my site at all if it weren’t for this game.

It only takes one slot player at the casino to offset about 30 perfect strategy blackjack players, and that assumes those players never make a mistake, and never play another game at the casino.

My hope in this exercise was to illustrate a few things about gambling, and particularly about games with a small player edge. The main thought you should take from this monologue is that short-term results are basically meaningless, whether you are a card counter with a 1% edge, or a hopeful basic strategy player with only 0.11% the best of it.

Let me state that again:
Short-term results are basically meaningless.

And for most gambling games, the mathematical ‘short-term’ lasts a really long time. I could bore you with a long explanation using variance, standard deviation and a number called N0. But those of you who would understand that explanation probably don’t need it explained at all.

Some of you might be tempted to shrug your shoulders after all this and say “Well, there are no sure things in gambling.” I definitely disagree. There are plenty of sure things in gambling, but most of them take a long time to play out with certainty. All along the way, our simultaneous friend and foe Lady Luck will do her best to distract us with meaningless noise.

Today’s summary (day 10):
Starting Bankroll: $320
Low point today: $0 (-$320)
High point today: $380 (+$60)
Ending Bankroll: Nada (-$320)

257 hands @ $10 each

My blackjacks today: 11
Dealer blackjacks today: 17
(No blackjacks tied today.)

————————–
Overall result for 2689 hands was a loss of $200.
The expected win of that action is 2689 * $10 * 0.11% = $29.58.

Both the dealer and player hand in a single deck should expect to see a blackjack on 4.83% of their hands. For this sample, that’s 129.9 blackjacks each. The actual numbers were:
For me: 135 blackjacks
For the dealer: 119 blackjacks
————————–

Today’s play took a brutal toll on the bankroll, as I dropped back to levels I last saw on day four. Pharaoh’s Casino single deck is the game, and I’m nearing the end of my ten-day blogging experience there.

This game with a razor-thin player advantage delivered some nice wins for me, with my initial $200 bankroll peaking at $1085 on day 6. But most of that profit has evaporated, and I now take only a $320 bank into the final hour of play tomorrow.

Yesterday I noted that I hadn’t yet gotten an opportunity to make an unusual basic strategy play in this game, splitting 7s against a dealer 8. I should be careful what I ask for, as I had that hand twice today. Of the resulting four hands, I had one push and three losses.

I also managed to win the blackjack battle today, outpacing the dealer 15 to 8. But it’s clearly a case of winning the battle and losing the war.

Today’s summary (day 9):
Starting Bankroll: $ 655
Low point today: $280 (-$375)
High point today: $685 (+$30)
Ending Bankroll: $320 (-$335)

275 hands @ $10 each

My blackjacks today: 15
Dealer blackjacks today: 8
(No blackjacks tied.)

———————–
Overall summary: A profit of $120 in 2432 hands.

The big questions: Can I end up with a profit? Will I have to buy-in again on the final day? Come back and find out tomorrow.

Oops! Yesterday’s entry was titled as day 8, and it wasn’t until today that I realized it was actually day 7. Well, the real day 8 went quite a bit better, right from the beginning.

The early part of the hour at Pharaoh’s Casino today had me drawing blackjacks while the dealer went through a blackjack drought. The dealer finally had a blackjack on hand 62, after I had tallied six already. The extra 3:2 payouts helped out today, as I logged an $85 profit on the day.

I had a few interesting hands today. Twice more I made that peculiar basic strategy split of (3,3) vs dealer 8. But again I came up dry, losing all four resulting hands. I’m now 0 for 6 on those split hands. I still haven’t had a chance to make the other odd play that is appropriate in this game, which is splitting (7,7) vs 8.

One of the common mistakes I see at the tables when I play in land-based casinos is the reluctance of many players to split (8,8) vs a dealer ten. In fact, it is number 6 on the Top Ten Basic Strategy Mistakes list that subscribers to my newsletter get for free when they subscribe. While this is a losing hand regardless, splitting is cheaper than either hitting or standing. It’ll save you about 5.2% of your bet size to split the 8s. I split 88vT in today’s session, and had a really nice outcome. I made two 3-card 21s to beat a pat dealer 20. It’s nice when it works out like that.

Today’s summary (the _real_ day 8):
Starting Bankroll: $570
Low Point today: $550 (-$20)
High Point today: $755 (+$185)
Ending bankroll: $655 (+$85)

278 hands@ $10 each

My blackjacks today: 19
Dealer blackjacks today: 13
(No tied blackjacks today.)

——————————-
Overall results after 2157 hands: A profit of $455

Why -oh why – couldn’t I have decided to title this blog ‘A Week of Play at Pharaoh’s Single Deck’? That way I would have been done after yesterday, and I’d be $355 better off as a result.

Today’s hour of play at this game with a 0.11% player advantage didn’t yield up 0.11% of my action as a profit, but instead cost me a considerable 12.5% of my action. Well, I’m still nicely ahead for this experiment, but not like yesterday.

Today’s summary (day 8):
Starting Bankroll: $925
Low point today: $535 (-$390)
High point today: $1005 (+$80)
Ending Bankroll: $570 (-$355)

283 hands @ $10 each.

My blackjacks today: 9
Dealer blackjacks today: 16
(No blackjacks tied today.)

———————————-
Overall summary: I have a profit of $370 after 1879 hands.
With two days to go, I hope I can hang on to a decent profit.

(Yawn.) That pretty much sums up today’s action at the Pharaoh’s Single Deck game.
My hour of play today was noteworthy really only for two points. One, I made several forays into 4-digit bankroll territory despite finishing short of that mark. And two, it’s yet another profitable hour, in a game that might to the unitiated look like my own personal ATM machine. If you paid attention to yesterday’s blog entry, you should know better though.

This game can easily produce both winners and losers, despite a small long-term advantage for the player. Single deck, good rules, 0.11% player edge… Easy money, right? Well, after six hours of play (1596 hands), my current profit is more than 40 times the expected average win at this game. Just how lucky have I been? If I were to start over now, my chance of having this large a profit (or greater) by day six is around 6%.

Today’s summary (day 6):
Starting Bankroll: $890
Low point today: $880 (-$10)
High point today: $1085 (+$195)
Ending Bankroll: $925 (+$35)

270 hands @ $10 each.

My blackjacks today: 11
Dealer blackjacks today: 9
(No blackjacks pushed today.)

—————————————
Overall results: A profit of $725 after 1596 hands.

Woohoo! Today went about as well as it could possibly go.
The fifth hour of my Single Deck Blackjack odyssey is in the books with a big profit.

You know those days where everything just falls your way? This was one of those days. Starting with my $425 bankroll from yesterday, I was up for almost the entire hour today. A few minutes into the round I hit my low point of $365, and it was all up after that.

An appropriate finish for the day was a win on my final bet, which put me at an all-time high so far of $890.

I also had a chance to make a pretty rare basic strategy play today, when I split 3s against a dealer 8. That’s a play that is only correct basic strategy in a single deck game that offers double after split. For the record, I lost both hands. Oh well.

But, hey, with days like today, this game sure looks easy! Of course, I know better. My expected profit to date in this game is under $15, so my actual profit of $690 is WAY above expectation. Another way of looking at that: I was just as likely to have a loss of $660 as a profit of $690 so far. That’s a sobering thought, eh?

Today’s summary (day 5):
Starting Bankroll: $425
Low point today: $365 (-$60)
High point today: $890 (+$465)
Ending Bankroll: $890

One hour of play, 283 hands @ $10 each.

My blackjacks today: 14
Dealer blackjacks today: 15
(One blackjack was a push.)
—————————–
Overall results, $690 profit in 1326 hands.

I made a nice recovery at Pharaoh’s Single Deck Blackjack today.

It didn’t look that way at first, when my day’s starting bankroll of $250 was down to just $150 after twelve hands. However, I got back to even after another 46 hands and never looked back.

If you’re wondering what this post is about, start here instead.

After getting back to my starting point of $250, I made a steady climb today, peaking at $520 about 40 minutes into my hour of play. The last twenty minutes took some of that profit back, and I finished the hour at $425. Darned good day though, and I may just make it all 10 days without having to deposit any more money. We’ll see!

Today’s Summary (day 4):
Starting bankroll: $250
Low point today: $150 (-$100)
High point today: $520 (+$270)
Ending bankroll: $425 (+$175)

One hour of play, 265 hands @ $10 each.

My blackjacks today: 15
Dealer blackjacks today: 9
(No tied blackjacks today.)
—————————————-

Overall results, I’m up $225. Expected win to date, after 1043 hands = $ 11.47.
So, I’ve been pretty lucky so far.

Four days down, six to go.