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Wait a min…is the advanced strategy card(s) what I think is is??? Is this the basic deviations based on true count on a card? Already bought three of the basic cards some time ago…I didn’t know what deviations were at the time…I do now…lol.
I’ve got a question regarding the charts. In the chart for the rules of: 6-deck, dealer hits on soft 17, double after split, late surrender allowed, peek, it says to double down on a soft 14 15 or 16 in certain scenarios, but what if they are 3+ card soft 14, 15, or 16s? (Then you CAN’T double down, of course.) Soooooo what happens then?
You’ll notice that some entries on the chart say “D”, while others say “Ds”.
“D” means Double if allowed, otherwise Hit. This is the most common doubling advice.
If you look at the chart for soft 18, you will find some exceptions.
Some of those decisions indicate “Ds”, which means Double if allowed, otherwise Stand.
ken …. in 6d s17 15vs 10 when there is a surrender first choice is surr or hit ?I saw a card that says 15 vs 10 stand at tc +4 and above and in how much – tc you prefer to hit than to surrender ?
ken the general rule that your total br must be min 100 times your max bet and the trip br must be 20 times your max bet finds you ok?
and one crusial question !!!!! if my TOTAL br reduces at 50% by the bad variance should I resize my betting or continue like I still have all the money?
Funny thing is most blackjack dealers are firm believers in the whole taking the bust card mentality. Even after multiple decades of working in the industry they swear by it and cite their extensive experience as proof. I tried explaining it to one dealer and he responded, “Well if everyone says it there must be something to it!” Of course, they are just victims of their own conformation bias. But it’s the illusion of control over the outcome that keeps most players coming back. The human mind trying to see a pattern and replicate it and get that rush of dopamine one more time. The game comes down to mathematics, probabilities, and playing perfect basic strat to minimize your losses over the long run (because you lose overall, there’s no escaping it). Advantage play is a whole other beast, and very situational. But it just amazes me how people continue to refuse to believe and defend passionately this philosophy that other players affect the outcome of the hand. High limit players who regularly are putting large sums of money also are firm believers in this. It’s just an interesting example of how the human mind is wired I guess.
l’m curious about the superstitious guy who has a huge bet on the table with a dealer 6 showing. I’m on 3rd base with my $5 chip out in front of me. If I have a 14 showing and hit then I’m screwing the table over by taking the dealers bust card? But what if I have an 11 showing? Isn’t my desire to double down and improve my hand going to screw the table over just the same? Somehow my playing or not playing by the rules makes it “ok” to take the dealers bust card? I never understood the logic.
Expected Win / Standard Deviation. Assumptions: $12 average bet, 50 hands per hour, 1.25% average advantage, using be $5 to $60.
Under these conditions I could take a trip to play 90 hours with only 1,175 dollars. In the worst of the hypotheses would lose only 1,175, with good chances of winning back. Is that so?
Casino Rules:
8 decks, H17 , DAS, Late Surrender , Peek , 70 % penetration.
I have basic strategy down ok. couple quick questions – Is it always best to play one spot? Do i always hit my 12 against the dealers 2 up-card and the dealers 3 up-card? Do i hit my soft 17 all the time? When do I hit soft 18? When do I double my soft 17 against dealer –
This question was actually answered above. You can use the same indexes in a no-peek game, except ignore any that suggest splitting or doubling against a dealer ten or ace.
ok but what about the advanced strategy, how can i adjust to the count? Like, should i still stand a soft 18 against dealer A at TC>1 ? and hard 14,15,16 against dealer A is still stand at TC> 9 , 9 , 8 ? or any other changes? you know better
Wait a min…is the advanced strategy card(s) what I think is is??? Is this the basic deviations based on true count on a card? Already bought three of the basic cards some time ago…I didn’t know what deviations were at the time…I do now…lol.
Yes, the advanced cards include the normal basic strategy, plus all of the Hi-Lo index numbers between -5 and +5. 🙂
How does it affect the game if the player can only split once , not multiple times?
The strategy does not change, but the player is worse off by around 0.1% if you are not allowed to resplit.
@Glen,
You may be pleased to know that Tunica Roadhouse, next door to Horseshoe Tunica, has a $3 table with normal beatable rules.
I’ve got a question regarding the charts. In the chart for the rules of: 6-deck, dealer hits on soft 17, double after split, late surrender allowed, peek, it says to double down on a soft 14 15 or 16 in certain scenarios, but what if they are 3+ card soft 14, 15, or 16s? (Then you CAN’T double down, of course.) Soooooo what happens then?
You’ll notice that some entries on the chart say “D”, while others say “Ds”.
“D” means Double if allowed, otherwise Hit. This is the most common doubling advice.
If you look at the chart for soft 18, you will find some exceptions.
Some of those decisions indicate “Ds”, which means Double if allowed, otherwise Stand.
ken I wish all the best 4 you in 2017 and just wanted to express a big thank you for your time and informations on bj !!!
ken …. in 6d s17 15vs 10 when there is a surrender first choice is surr or hit ?I saw a card that says 15 vs 10 stand at tc +4 and above and in how much – tc you prefer to hit than to surrender ?
ken the general rule that your total br must be min 100 times your max bet and the trip br must be 20 times your max bet finds you ok?
and one crusial question !!!!! if my TOTAL br reduces at 50% by the bad variance should I resize my betting or continue like I still have all the money?
Does anyone know Kevin Barton?
Funny thing is most blackjack dealers are firm believers in the whole taking the bust card mentality. Even after multiple decades of working in the industry they swear by it and cite their extensive experience as proof. I tried explaining it to one dealer and he responded, “Well if everyone says it there must be something to it!” Of course, they are just victims of their own conformation bias. But it’s the illusion of control over the outcome that keeps most players coming back. The human mind trying to see a pattern and replicate it and get that rush of dopamine one more time. The game comes down to mathematics, probabilities, and playing perfect basic strat to minimize your losses over the long run (because you lose overall, there’s no escaping it). Advantage play is a whole other beast, and very situational. But it just amazes me how people continue to refuse to believe and defend passionately this philosophy that other players affect the outcome of the hand. High limit players who regularly are putting large sums of money also are firm believers in this. It’s just an interesting example of how the human mind is wired I guess.
l’m curious about the superstitious guy who has a huge bet on the table with a dealer 6 showing. I’m on 3rd base with my $5 chip out in front of me. If I have a 14 showing and hit then I’m screwing the table over by taking the dealers bust card? But what if I have an 11 showing? Isn’t my desire to double down and improve my hand going to screw the table over just the same? Somehow my playing or not playing by the rules makes it “ok” to take the dealers bust card? I never understood the logic.
Ken,
Expected Win / Standard Deviation. Assumptions: $12 average bet, 50 hands per hour, 1.25% average advantage, using be $5 to $60.
Under these conditions I could take a trip to play 90 hours with only 1,175 dollars. In the worst of the hypotheses would lose only 1,175, with good chances of winning back. Is that so?
Casino Rules:
8 decks, H17 , DAS, Late Surrender , Peek , 70 % penetration.
In a basic blackjack, does triple 7 suited be paid 3xs?
Does it matter what position you are, at the tournament table? I like seat one or seat seven?
I have basic strategy down ok. couple quick questions – Is it always best to play one spot? Do i always hit my 12 against the dealers 2 up-card and the dealers 3 up-card? Do i hit my soft 17 all the time? When do I hit soft 18? When do I double my soft 17 against dealer –
the trainer incorrectly tells me to surrender on 14 vs 10.
This question was actually answered above. You can use the same indexes in a no-peek game, except ignore any that suggest splitting or doubling against a dealer ten or ace.
ok but what about the advanced strategy, how can i adjust to the count? Like, should i still stand a soft 18 against dealer A at TC>1 ? and hard 14,15,16 against dealer A is still stand at TC> 9 , 9 , 8 ? or any other changes? you know better