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How would the above basic strategy variations table change if the game involved the dealer hitting on soft 17 instead of standing. This is the more common format that I see in casinos so it is what I have been basing my basic strategy around. Would the true count cutoffs be significantly different with this slight dealer rule change?
How would you know how to vary your basic strategy based on the true count for other variations in rules?
There are no differences at all for dealer upcards of 7,8,9,T, since the dealer cannot have a soft 17 with those hands. But against dealer 2 through 6 and Ace, there are several.
Perhaps the largest difference is this one… 12v6 should stand at -1 or higher in 6DS17, but stand at -4 or higher in 6DH17 games. (The GameMaster doesn’t show this index in his list, but it’s a useful one.)
Michael. I’m sorry for your loss. If Frank Sinatra was still alive he’d take a f*ing flamethrower to that table, dealer and pit boss that f*ed up your bankroll.
You can’t compare doubling vs hitting unless you also know the hit/lose/push probabilities for both. In the case of A2v4, those numbers are better when hitting than doubling. (There is likely a big reduction in loss percentage, and a big increase in pushes.) The double down charts simply do not include enough information to derive basic strategy from them, because they’re only part of the puzzle.
I was wondering how much it’s actually realistic to make assuming you make no major mistakes and you keep track of the count. Saying that the casino has a 1 % advantage they’ll win 51 hands and we’ll win 49. We say that we only have 2 bet sizes, 5 and 10, min and max. We say that we’ve been counting and betting higher when the count is high and lower when it’s low and we’ve come out with 51 L: 41 min + 10 max = -305. 49 W: 24 min + 25 max = 370 so on average for 100 hands we’ll have earnt 370-305 = 65. Saying we take the standard approach of initial money 40x max bet our initial capital is 400. 65/400 = aprox. 16% increase per 100 hands so if you take a conservative approach of 100 hands per hour you’ll have doubled your money in 6 hours. 16*6=96.
I just wanted your input on wether these numbers are reasonable and realistic or if not then what your thoughts are on eventual profits and how much you yourself would expect to make on an average night
Your estimates have a lot of problems. Even your first calculation of 51 vs 49 yields the wrong answer… That would be a 2% house edge, not 1%. But honestly, you can’t even come close to understanding blackjack with a simple wins/losses idea. It’s too complex for that kind of simplification.
My advice? Ditch all the manual calculations. If you want concrete numbers, either run the sims yourself using something like the CVData software, or buy a book like Blackjack Attack where all this work has been done for you.
The bottom line is far less lucrative than your estimates. Assuming decent conditions, a card counter’s advantage is usually around 1% of his total action. In 100 hands, your profit is probably a couple of your minimum bets. And you’ll need to spread far more than $5 to $10 to make any profit at all. (The house edge can’t be overcome with such a small spread.)
Something I noticed is that the dealer will still hit even if their first two cards have a greater total than mine and its under 17. No sane dealer in real life would hit when they already have a total greater than yours, right?
That’s the way the game works. The dealer must follow the strict rules on hitting, and cannot choose to stand on a stiff total just because he would beat you. For more, see Blackjack Rules.
I was playing in Poland few month. So I can say the basic strategy, card counting, and other beting system really works my mounth profit was ~ 3000euro, ante was 3euro
Yes, you can profitably play without strategy variations. Bet variation yields the majority of the profit, with strategy variations just being the extra on top.
Most decisions at the table are made pretty quickly, but you won’t be bothered about it unless you take more than 20 or 30 seconds to decide. As for how to keep track? Practice, practice.
I’ve never been to a casino, I’m actually not old enough, how long do you have to decide what to do on each hand? And do you have any tips for keeping track of the count while at the same time adding and subtracting new totals?
Right on Dwight, me too. I just started going to the casino, and it’s been fun. I’m ready to start practicing to get my money back.
Thanks for all the amazing resources.
How would the above basic strategy variations table change if the game involved the dealer hitting on soft 17 instead of standing. This is the more common format that I see in casinos so it is what I have been basing my basic strategy around. Would the true count cutoffs be significantly different with this slight dealer rule change?
How would you know how to vary your basic strategy based on the true count for other variations in rules?
Thanks again for all the help
There are no differences at all for dealer upcards of 7,8,9,T, since the dealer cannot have a soft 17 with those hands.
But against dealer 2 through 6 and Ace, there are several.
Perhaps the largest difference is this one… 12v6 should stand at -1 or higher in 6DS17, but stand at -4 or higher in 6DH17 games.
(The GameMaster doesn’t show this index in his list, but it’s a useful one.)
For more indexes optimized for different by rules, see my Advanced Strategy cards.
Michael. I’m sorry for your loss. If Frank Sinatra was still alive he’d take a f*ing flamethrower to that table, dealer and pit boss that f*ed up your bankroll.
your chart shows doubling a,2 vs 4 as win 49.4% and lose as46.0% but basic strategy chart does not show it as a double. what am I missing?
You can’t compare doubling vs hitting unless you also know the hit/lose/push probabilities for both. In the case of A2v4, those numbers are better when hitting than doubling. (There is likely a big reduction in loss percentage, and a big increase in pushes.) The double down charts simply do not include enough information to derive basic strategy from them, because they’re only part of the puzzle.
thanks, will try to find a chard on hitting with percentages
Google translation
Who supervises the casino ? Example: 6 or 8 decks with 75% penetration .
The casino could take 10 faces , illegally , without the counter notice ?
In Austria the pay 3:2 also on 777 which means always hit on 7,7 for the basic strategy, right?
But they use a CSM with 6 decks and a stack of max 2,5 decks. Is this game beatable?
Thanks for the BJ game. It’s a real good one. The black letters on the green are a little hard for me to see. Only problem I’ve noticed.
I was wondering how much it’s actually realistic to make assuming you make no major mistakes and you keep track of the count. Saying that the casino has a 1 % advantage they’ll win 51 hands and we’ll win 49. We say that we only have 2 bet sizes, 5 and 10, min and max. We say that we’ve been counting and betting higher when the count is high and lower when it’s low and we’ve come out with 51 L: 41 min + 10 max = -305. 49 W: 24 min + 25 max = 370 so on average for 100 hands we’ll have earnt 370-305 = 65. Saying we take the standard approach of initial money 40x max bet our initial capital is 400. 65/400 = aprox. 16% increase per 100 hands so if you take a conservative approach of 100 hands per hour you’ll have doubled your money in 6 hours. 16*6=96.
I just wanted your input on wether these numbers are reasonable and realistic or if not then what your thoughts are on eventual profits and how much you yourself would expect to make on an average night
Your estimates have a lot of problems. Even your first calculation of 51 vs 49 yields the wrong answer… That would be a 2% house edge, not 1%. But honestly, you can’t even come close to understanding blackjack with a simple wins/losses idea. It’s too complex for that kind of simplification.
My advice? Ditch all the manual calculations. If you want concrete numbers, either run the sims yourself using something like the CVData software, or buy a book like Blackjack Attack where all this work has been done for you.
The bottom line is far less lucrative than your estimates. Assuming decent conditions, a card counter’s advantage is usually around 1% of his total action. In 100 hands, your profit is probably a couple of your minimum bets. And you’ll need to spread far more than $5 to $10 to make any profit at all. (The house edge can’t be overcome with such a small spread.)
Something I noticed is that the dealer will still hit even if their first two cards have a greater total than mine and its under 17. No sane dealer in real life would hit when they already have a total greater than yours, right?
That’s the way the game works. The dealer must follow the strict rules on hitting, and cannot choose to stand on a stiff total just because he would beat you.
For more, see Blackjack Rules.
Play alone or with your buddy
I was playing in Poland few month. So I can say the basic strategy, card counting, and other beting system really works my mounth profit was ~ 3000euro, ante was 3euro
Yes, you can profitably play without strategy variations. Bet variation yields the majority of the profit, with strategy variations just being the extra on top.
If you play the game with no variation, only change your bets can you still achieve an advantage or is variation play integral for this to occur?
Most decisions at the table are made pretty quickly, but you won’t be bothered about it unless you take more than 20 or 30 seconds to decide.
As for how to keep track? Practice, practice.
I’ve never been to a casino, I’m actually not old enough, how long do you have to decide what to do on each hand? And do you have any tips for keeping track of the count while at the same time adding and subtracting new totals?