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    65% is the standard for ALL games, irregardless of the number of decks?

  • I know this is an old post. Ive read some of these and am curious. Through observation and the probability somehow favoring the dealer. And I don’t mean by percent alone as in the amount of decks and the hitting or standing on soft 17. I mean it’s like those casinos have a special witch doctor looming behind the scenes. The spread of cards sometimes seems astronomically improbable, such as last night where the dealer gets 4 aces in a row with kings. Now this is a reputable casino of course. I digress. So my question is. I’ve read the charts and such for increasing win percentages by using accurate basic strategy. But wait. What planet did those stats come from? If I stand on a dealers up card of 2-6 with a 14, 15, 16 for example, I almost always lose and dealer won’t bust. And he beats me with some ridiculous number either just one more or by far. So when sometimes I hit on a 13 and a 5 or 6 up card I’m of course much heckled and chastised by the players who think they know how to really play (but they all bet like random bobbleheads). And FYI off topic I despise not many things but hindsight strategists I call them.
    “shoulda hit 3 rounds ago… ” I say.. “Shoulda told me what card I had then coming next and what card I have coming now.” lol But for the most part. Not trusting the dealers cards. I’ve won. My problem is too my lack of patience and maintaining and ultimately betting more than I think not commanding my brain to think of the next dealer streak. But I also play two hands as it seems more safe , until a loss streak. I’m new mostly and don’t mean to discount anything of this or any post and or anyone’s skill, knowledge and professionalism of the game. I simply just can’t get down counting because it’s just too fast (even though I play piano lightning fast) and with the HiLo numbers and running and true count, I’ll just say I couldn’t add dived and solve for X like that. Especially quick dealers. Maybe I’ll find a slow one. Lol Any additional advice at this point would be helpful. Mostly just want to bet more safely and practically. I understand your post above about the 2500. I did read it lol I’m just more asking for anyones advice on what they might use personally and what works and hasn’t worked. . Forgive the long post. Thank you all.

    Benjamin CA

  • Thanks so much for all the help GM! You’re great!

    I have 2 questions:

    I currently live an hour from Tunica and was wondering if it was better to start trying to master counting hi-lo with a shoe game or hi-opt I for single/DD game?

    Also, I’ve read some of “BJ for Blood” and wondered what you thought about Omega II?

    Thanks for all that you do!

  • 20,605 hands played +6027. I should be up more but I lost some EV due to not having enough chips to double and take insurance when I was playing a 25 dollar min 1-12 spread(high for DD) since my max is $300 with that max it’s easy to bust a 1k starting bank roll that the trainer only allows.

  • Hi Ken,
    I just received the advanced strategy cards and some (but not all) of the numbers for the 2-deck H17 game are different than I’ve seen elsewhere. I saw somewhere (I think Norm W. wrote in his forum) that you should use indexes based on the same method of true count derivation that you use for counting. I am currently using flooring and am wondering: 1) What true count method you used for arriving at these numbers and 2) Whether you think this is the reason for the differences in some but not all the numbers. Most are within one integer, but some are very different….for example, elsewhere for this game I’ve seen the index for 12 vs 6 is -3, yet you have it on the card as -6! Obviously this is a big difference and could result in one $$ won or lost so am wondering if you can clear things up. Many thanks!

    • First up, check the card again for the index 12v6. It is -3 on the 2DH17 card, not -6 as you mention. (In fact the cards only show indexes between -5 and +5.)

      The indexes were created through a lengthy iterative process using Norm’s CVData. Some decisions are quite close, so very small differences in assumptions can create a difference of 1 or even 2 points. In those cases, it’s actually not that important, because the very fact that they are so close means the difference in EV is tiny. I believe these are the best indexes I could have created. Many hours went in to the process. I ran multiple rounds until the numbers stopped changing. (Each index actually depends on those generated downstream.)

      To answer your main question…
      The card indexes are generating by flooring the true count. Just to refresh everyone’s memory, floor(2.9) = 2, floor(-2.9) = -3.

  • Hi Ken,
    The Casino (ENHC) that I visit has a good rule – if the player splits or doubles & the dealer gets Blackjack, the player only loses the 1st bet, so this will change the Basic Strategy a little. I’m guessing that in this case I should double a hard 10 against dealers 10, but not sure about splitting Aces against a dealers Ace? Oh, I should also mention that you can only split to two hands.

  • Jake,
    yes, the variations change according to the true count. However 16 vs 10 changes from hit to stand at even a plus 1 running count and 12 vs 4 , 9 vs 3 , A2 vs 5 , 3,3 vs 2, A4 vs 4 change at even a -1 running count. You then continue to calculate the the variations based on the true count… so +1 t.c = A7 vs 2, A7 vs A, A8 vs 6, 11 vs A and A3 vs 4.

  • If you play long enough the chance of you losing actually becomes less likely than you getting hit by a car or dying on your way to the casino. If you have an advantage, lets say 1% and you were to play 100 thousand hands the probability of you ending up behind is probably less than 1/100,000. That’s a conservative number as well, very conservative. Doesn’t sound like gambling to me.