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  • Ken,

    Expected Win / Standard Deviation. Assumptions: $12 average bet, 50 hands per hour, 1.25% average advantage, using be $5 to $60.
    Under these conditions I could take a trip to play 90 hours with only 1,175 dollars. In the worst of the hypotheses would lose only 1,175, with good chances of winning back. Is that so?
    Casino Rules:
    8 decks, H17 , DAS, Late Surrender , Peek , 70 % penetration.

  • l’m curious about the superstitious guy who has a huge bet on the table with a dealer 6 showing. I’m on 3rd base with my $5 chip out in front of me. If I have a 14 showing and hit then I’m screwing the table over by taking the dealers bust card? But what if I have an 11 showing? Isn’t my desire to double down and improve my hand going to screw the table over just the same? Somehow my playing or not playing by the rules makes it “ok” to take the dealers bust card? I never understood the logic.

  • Funny thing is most blackjack dealers are firm believers in the whole taking the bust card mentality. Even after multiple decades of working in the industry they swear by it and cite their extensive experience as proof. I tried explaining it to one dealer and he responded, “Well if everyone says it there must be something to it!” Of course, they are just victims of their own conformation bias. But it’s the illusion of control over the outcome that keeps most players coming back. The human mind trying to see a pattern and replicate it and get that rush of dopamine one more time. The game comes down to mathematics, probabilities, and playing perfect basic strat to minimize your losses over the long run (because you lose overall, there’s no escaping it). Advantage play is a whole other beast, and very situational. But it just amazes me how people continue to refuse to believe and defend passionately this philosophy that other players affect the outcome of the hand. High limit players who regularly are putting large sums of money also are firm believers in this. It’s just an interesting example of how the human mind is wired I guess.

  • ken the general rule that your total br must be min 100 times your max bet and the trip br must be 20 times your max bet finds you ok?

    and one crusial question !!!!! if my TOTAL br reduces at 50% by the bad variance should I resize my betting or continue like I still have all the money?

  • Nicholas Konyn said:
    (Posted to: Lesson 1 - Basic Strategy)

    I’ve got a question regarding the charts. In the chart for the rules of: 6-deck, dealer hits on soft 17, double after split, late surrender allowed, peek, it says to double down on a soft 14 15 or 16 in certain scenarios, but what if they are 3+ card soft 14, 15, or 16s? (Then you CAN’T double down, of course.) Soooooo what happens then?

    • You’ll notice that some entries on the chart say “D”, while others say “Ds”.
      “D” means Double if allowed, otherwise Hit. This is the most common doubling advice.
      If you look at the chart for soft 18, you will find some exceptions.
      Some of those decisions indicate “Ds”, which means Double if allowed, otherwise Stand.

  • Wait a min…is the advanced strategy card(s) what I think is is??? Is this the basic deviations based on true count on a card? Already bought three of the basic cards some time ago…I didn’t know what deviations were at the time…I do now…lol.

  • ok but what about the advanced strategy, how can i adjust to the count? Like, should i still stand a soft 18 against dealer A at TC>1 ? and hard 14,15,16 against dealer A is still stand at TC> 9 , 9 , 8 ? or any other changes? you know better

  • So , in a game where the dealer gets only 1 card and he draws the other one only after every player stands (kinda the same as the “no peek” i guess) , what should we do? Should we still double 11 against that dealer’s Ace ? Does this affects other decisions against Ace ?