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In splitting Aces are you not looking for a push at a minimum or better? And why always split 8’s? What is the basis/expectation for doing so against the Dealer up card Ace
Johnny’s decision only matters when the next two cards are a bust and non bust card for the dealer.
So when you make your list of all the possibilities, you can remove all the two bust card next and two non bust card next possibilities. because johnny’s decision does not matter for them.
having done this, you will always find that the number of possibilities with the bust card first and the bust card second are equal.
this example is easily shown with two sixes and one ten. there are six possible orders. but two of them have the bust card last, so johnny’s decision doesn’t matter. this leaves two with the bust card first, and two with it second. 50% chance of it helping or hurting when it matters.
same results with two bust and one low. same results with 4 cards. same results with 40 cards left. there is always an equal number with it second and first.
if johnny only hit when it was a bust card, and stood when it wasn’t, it would affect the table. but that requires cheating or psychic powers. from a probability standpoint it doesn’t matter.
That said. there is ONE test that will answer the question once and for all.
Run the following long term simulation.
You play perfect basic strategy.
Johnny is at third base. He is the worst player ever. He will either take a hit or stand. While he doesn’t hit every ‘time theres a bust card next, or stand every time there isn’t, he does hit when there are more bust cards than not, and stand when there are more cards that give the dealer the win than not.
According to you, this has no effect on long term profit/loss.
If the 4 is made up of a pair of 2’s, split. If the “4” is made up of an Ace and a 3, then double down. This is stated in the charts. Never stay on a 4.
By using the Blackjack Trainer daily, I progressed from a $5.00 a hand player to a high stakes player. I have won as much as $35,000 and on my monthly visits leave ahead in winings. I have been able to learn all the basic strategies mentally and apply them when mplaying.
I’m not a mathematician here; help me out: When you say the probability of the 6-consecutive losing streak is 1 in 47, you don’t mean every 47 hands you get a 6-hand losing streak. You mean each segment of six is multiplied by 47, right? That’s a 6-hand losing streak per 282 hands of play. And the 7-hand losing streak is 1 in 90, or a 7-consecutive loss per 630 hands of play. Is that correct?
is this really true? How would a dealer know this information? maybe a pit boss, but a dealer? Where did this happen? (just curious). I will not be playing there. Also, was it a continuous shuffler or automatic shuffler?
That sounds like real life. How much protection do you really think you have playing $10 hands with $1000 bankroll? You’re more likely to bankrupt than survive the swings.
How the hell did you lose 30 in a row are you not playing by the book perfect strategy. I made over 1500 in 6 hrs doing 5-15-35-70-140-280-560-1120 . I basically do 10 games per set and 5 sets which would be 50 games it got scary I got to hand 6 a few times $280 . I guess sooner or later you will lose 8 in a row . I just wonder if it is better to use maybe 5-6 hand losing streaks for martingale . Then start over because if you lost 8 in a row all your profits are gone. I guess if you were rich you would never lose double forever lol
In splitting Aces are you not looking for a push at a minimum or better? And why always split 8’s? What is the basis/expectation for doing so against the Dealer up card Ace
Here’s an alternate explanation.
Johnny’s decision only matters when the next two cards are a bust and non bust card for the dealer.
So when you make your list of all the possibilities, you can remove all the two bust card next and two non bust card next possibilities. because johnny’s decision does not matter for them.
having done this, you will always find that the number of possibilities with the bust card first and the bust card second are equal.
this example is easily shown with two sixes and one ten. there are six possible orders. but two of them have the bust card last, so johnny’s decision doesn’t matter. this leaves two with the bust card first, and two with it second. 50% chance of it helping or hurting when it matters.
same results with two bust and one low. same results with 4 cards. same results with 40 cards left. there is always an equal number with it second and first.
if johnny only hit when it was a bust card, and stood when it wasn’t, it would affect the table. but that requires cheating or psychic powers. from a probability standpoint it doesn’t matter.
That said. there is ONE test that will answer the question once and for all.
Run the following long term simulation.
You play perfect basic strategy.
Johnny is at third base. He is the worst player ever. He will either take a hit or stand. While he doesn’t hit every ‘time theres a bust card next, or stand every time there isn’t, he does hit when there are more bust cards than not, and stand when there are more cards that give the dealer the win than not.
According to you, this has no effect on long term profit/loss.
If dealer has 5 and I have 4 do I stay or hit?
If the 4 is made up of a pair of 2’s, split. If the “4” is made up of an Ace and a 3, then double down. This is stated in the charts. Never stay on a 4.
I wanted to know if there are any casinos in Medellin that don’t use CSM?
I am on a cruise with Cliff Mann coming to New Orleans tomorrow and then on to Hattiesburg- Good Luck!!!
By using the Blackjack Trainer daily, I progressed from a $5.00 a hand player to a high stakes player. I have won as much as $35,000 and on my monthly visits leave ahead in winings. I have been able to learn all the basic strategies mentally and apply them when mplaying.
Great school, great approach and presentation. Time to reawaken some
lets play
i do pretty good
Which casino is known for the highest player limit per hand, and/or “no limit” per hand?
I’m not a mathematician here; help me out: When you say the probability of the 6-consecutive losing streak is 1 in 47, you don’t mean every 47 hands you get a 6-hand losing streak. You mean each segment of six is multiplied by 47, right? That’s a 6-hand losing streak per 282 hands of play. And the 7-hand losing streak is 1 in 90, or a 7-consecutive loss per 630 hands of play. Is that correct?
SHITTY GAME DEALLER GOT 18 AND ABOVE 15 STRAIGHT HANDS TRASHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
This is helping me count!
I had 13 straight winners at the Hard Rock Tampa Casino once.
is this really true? How would a dealer know this information? maybe a pit boss, but a dealer? Where did this happen? (just curious). I will not be playing there. Also, was it a continuous shuffler or automatic shuffler?
yes
That sounds like real life. How much protection do you really think you have playing $10 hands with $1000 bankroll? You’re more likely to bankrupt than survive the swings.
How the hell did you lose 30 in a row are you not playing by the book perfect strategy. I made over 1500 in 6 hrs doing 5-15-35-70-140-280-560-1120 . I basically do 10 games per set and 5 sets which would be 50 games it got scary I got to hand 6 a few times $280 . I guess sooner or later you will lose 8 in a row . I just wonder if it is better to use maybe 5-6 hand losing streaks for martingale . Then start over because if you lost 8 in a row all your profits are gone. I guess if you were rich you would never lose double forever lol