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first i want to apologyze about the thing concerning my security, it was just bullshit. i was trolling a bit, my country is not dangerous, i love colombia. but some people get angry at you when you play BS. i have another question, here in my city there is a side bet which you gamble to get a pair. if you get a mix pair(red and black) like a 6 of diamonds and a 6 of spikes they pay 6 times your side bet. if you get a color pair(red and red or black and black) like a 6 of diamonds and a 6 of hearts they play 12 times your side bet and if your ge a perfect pair(the same card) like a 6 of diamonds and a 6 of diamonds they pay you 25 times your side bet. my question is it worth it?
Like most side bets, it’s quite expensive. The house edge in six decks on the paytable you describe is 5.47%.
My advice about side bets is very simple: Ignore them.
Are there further lessons that deal with alternative counting strategies? Im going to check anyway, just wanted to say thanks for systematizing what i already knew, looking forward to reading more
I just saw information, and a UTube snippet on “Speed Count”, where one only counts the plus cards (2-7) played during the hand, and then subtracts the number of hands played to get a running count. Of course, they recommend their system highly, claiming a 1% player advantage using the system. What are the betting increase levels? ( I presume since they use 2-7 like KO and REKO, one starts out at -2 x [number of hands] )
I have tried to use REKO. I keep up the count just fine at 2 deck games, but have difficulty maintaining count at 6-deck due to not wanting to merely sit and stare at cards throughout.
I am not a fan of Speed Count, unless you really feel that you are unable to manage anything more powerful. Speed Count is quite a bit weaker than KO or Hi-Lo, and when you are playing a six-deck game it really extends the number of hands you must play before you reach the fabled “long run”. My recommendation is keep working at maintaining the count using KO. I have a tough time believing the claimed 1% player edge using Speed Count, except under very good conditions and a large bet spread. KO and Hi-Lo can rarely achieve that level in practice, with 0.5% to 0.7% being a more typical edge in a six deck game. Does Speed Count work? Yes, but your edge will be smaller, and it will take more hands to reach a high likelihood of being ahead of the variance of the game.
I have your Advanced Card Set (which are very helpful and I would highly recommend to everyone). I am building a custom playing strategy in CVBJ for DD as I’ve been wanting to learn correct BS and Indices instead of the composite. Comparing the indices on your 2D, H17 card to the matrix you’ve linked above, I’m seeing several differences, are there certain rule assumptions in the two sets of indices that I’m overlooking?
Just looking at the top of hard total section for example (>> card index, link index)
8 vs 5 >> 3, 6
8 vs 6 >> 2, 3
9 vs 2 >> -1, 2
9 vs 3 >> 1, 0
9 vs 4 >> -3, -3 (same)
9 vs 5 >> -5, -4
10 vs 9 >> -2, -1
I have struggled with how to deal with the discrepancies between the GameMaster’s published index numbers and the ones I spent so many hours devising for the strategy cards. GM himself noted that he used risk-adverse index numbers, and that explains most of the differences, although not all. My choice to not risk-adjust my indexes is based on the fact that exceptionally few players bet near a Kelly fraction of their true bankroll. Even players who do make bet sizing calculations based on Kelly tend to use the amount of money they have on hand for gambling right now, with no consideration of future income streams. Of course, that does reduce risk of ruin, and I am definitely not saying that is a bad idea. But it does taint any risk-averse calculations that are based on the lower bankroll estimates. If you choose to use risk-averse numbers, then the appropriate index number literally depends on the size of your bet on that specific hand at the time, which seems ridiculous to have to consider. And it is not like risk-averse indexes can magically make the game far less risky. They have a very small effect, despite the considerable complexities they cause. I prefer (and use) straight index numbers, and comfortably know that I’m doing the right thing because I am not risking anywhere near a Kelly fraction of my bankroll anyway. (In that case, risk-averse and non-adjusted indexes are identical anyway!)
I mention the differences between his indexes and mine inside the lesson at https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-school/lesson-14-advanced-course-part-2/ .
But the discrepancies do make me uncomfortable, and they require a lot of explanation to readers. Witness this lengthy reply! Since I cannot get in touch with GameMaster to discuss a resolution, I have left things as they are so far. But, as time passes, I become more convinced that I should simply edit all of his index numbers so that they are consistent with mine. I spent hundreds of hours optimizing my numbers, and have a great deal of confidence in their utility. Generating index numbers is much more involved than most people realize. Each number is also dependent on the choice of index numbers further down the decision chain. That is, determining an accurate index for 14vT also depends on the values chosen for 15vT and 16vT, since those are among the possible outcomes for hitting 15vT. It is a lengthy recursive process. I don’t know what method GameMaster used to generate his numbers, but I doubt that his methodology was as careful as mine. For that reason, I completely recommend my values. If there is a difference, I say use my number.
The good news is that when the index differs by more than a point or two, that indicates a situation where the edge likely changes slowly as the count changes. That means the most contested numbers are likely those that matter the least, where a point or three won’t affect your results much at all. The truth is that if you were to use all of his numbers vs all of my numbers, the difference in expected results is small.
Thanks, Ken, for the very detailed response. Your last point is especially helpful in explaining the larger discrepancies which were particularly concerning/confusing to me.
So for 9 vs 2 >> – 1, 2 which has a large difference and crosses the +/- threshold, the edge changes slower and the basic strategy decision to ‘double’ (index -1) is close enough that after factoring in risk-aversion it would change the BS decision to ‘hit’ (as the index is >=2)?
On a side note, though I know the incremental expected value is small, are you able to provide or can I purchase your full index sets beyond -5 to 5 for the six sets of rules if you have them?
During the iterative process of generating the indexes, I truncated the list to only -5 to +5 at each step of the process, so I do not have the outlying indexes. Wong’s Professional Blackjack has a wider range for shoe games in H17 and S17 if I recall correctly.
ok thanks, I’ve gone back to Professional Blackjack and found the wider index ranges for H17 & S17 shoe games.
One last question (at least for now!) on Double Deck. On your Adv Charts the index value for A,3 vs 4 = 1 for both H17 & S17. However the basic strategy action is Hit (S17) and Dbl (H17). I know this scenario is a close one but what’s the reason for the differences in basic strategy between H17 & S17 despite the same index.
Hi, I’m somewhat confused about the „european“ strategy (6 decks, S17, D9, DAS, NoSurr, NoPeek(!), no refund(!!) of split or double on dealers BJ) calculated by your engine. Although I understand that 11 vs. ten might run into a dealers BlackJack, it is still 15 ten’s for me to get 21 and only 4 aces for the dealer to reach a BJ (counted per deck). So why not DD on 11 vs. ten?
Next point is not splitting 8s against ten or ace. I can easily follow not to split 8s against A due to „a lot of ten’s around there“. But again, why not splitting that ugly 16 points against a dealers ten, who needs a „seldom“ ace to knock me out? Even more confusing: if 8s should not be splitted against ten, why should aces be splitted against ten?
The short answer is: That’s just the way the numbers work out. Just trust the strategy.
But I’m sure that is not a very satisfying answer for you. So, I’ll try to give you some more insight. What about doubling 11vT? You can’t just look at the likelihood of you drawing a ten versus the dealer drawing an Ace. Most of the time neither of those things will happen. The tricky part is comparing all the other possible outcomes. You’ll make money when you double 11vT, but it won’t be as much as you will make on average by just hitting. For one thing, when you double you give up the ability to draw more than one card. If you draw an Ace,2,3,4, or 5, you would like to be able to hit again, but you are not allowed to. All of those factors go into the calculations, and in a no hole card game you should not double 11vT. (In fact, in the S17 game you describe, you shouldn’t double 11vT even if the dealer did take a hole card!)
The other decisions have similarly complicated explanations. There are rarely easy answers for the “why” of basic strategy. The calculations take all the possible outcomes into account, and show you the most profitable (or more frequently, the least unprofitable!) way to play each decision.
Ken, years ago I counted using HiLo. I would like to start counting again recreationally when I go to Vegas or a day trip to AC. I am trying KO because there is no need to estimate the number of decks in the discard tray. But I find the the increased negative counts hard to deal with and it is easier to know when I have an advantage using HiLo and the betting table is easier to remember. What would you advise for a recreational player, put up with deck estimation or get over negative numbers and unintuitive betting strategies? How accurate do I need to be at deck estimation?
If mgm goes to $10.00 parking, and the price of gas stays where it’s at (below $3.00) and they keep pushing this 6/5 business, and union pressure in a RTW state, these high priced execs better start checking how far away the competion is.lol Not to mention a 20% rake and increase in food and room rates. Should help out the taxi business, but the indians and out of staters might get tired of that long drive for a 20$ hamburger at micky dees.
Michael Shackleford, A.S.A., a professional actuary who has made a career of analyzing casino games, sees your statement as myth. He runs the numbers on new games for casinos and game developers and has helped design many of the popular slot machines on the Internet.
In his own words…….
“Unless you are a card counter, how other players play should not affect what you do. Basic strategy players should stick to the basic strategy no matter how badly the other players play. Other players are just as likely to help you as hurt you. In the end, it makes no difference how they play.”
“In ten years of running this site I steadfastly denied the myth that bad players cause other players to lose in blackjack. However, you are the lucky 1000th person to ask, so I took the trouble to prove it by random simulation. The rules I put in are the standard liberal Vegas Strip rules as follows.
6 decks
Dealer stands on soft 17
Double on any first two cards allowed
Double after split allowed
Late surrender allowed
Player may re-split to four hands, including aces
Cut card used
First, I had both players follow correct total-dependent basic strategy. Over almost 1.6 billion rounds, the loss of the first player to act was 0.289%, and the second player to act of 0.288%.
Second, I had the first player follow the same correct strategy, and the second player follow the same correct strategy except:
Always hit 12 to 16
Always double 9 to 11
Split any pair
Never surrender
Never soft double
In a simulation of 1.05 billion hands the loss of the first player was 0.282%, and the second player was 11.260%. So the house edge of the basic strategy playing first player was almost the same, regardless of whether the second player played correctly or wildly incorrectly. I hope this puts and end the third baseman myth, but I doubt it. As I have said many times, the more ridiculous a belief is, the more tenaciously it tends to be held.”
Not true, Black Jack is a game of 2 no more no less. It’s you and the dealer. Whatever anyone else does, shouldn’t affect you. Unless you were counting.
Since the Strategy Engine does not have an option for “Early Surrender, but not against Ace” (yet!), you have to mix and match the charts.
Here is the strategy for 6D, H17, ES, No Hole Card: https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-basic-strategy-engine/?numdecks=6&soft17=h17&dbl=all&das=yes&surr=es&peek=no
Ignore the advice to surrender against an Ace, since it is not allowed. (Or you can create a second chart with No Surrender and use the Ace column from that.)
For your specific questions: The dealer has a 10 card, there is no hole card, and you are allowed to surrender…
You should surrender the following hands (as seen on the linked chart above):
(7,7) vs Ten
(8,8) vs Ten
Hard 14 vs Ten
Hard 15 vs Ten
Hard 16 vs Ten
Also, Hard 16 vs 9.
first i want to apologyze about the thing concerning my security, it was just bullshit. i was trolling a bit, my country is not dangerous, i love colombia. but some people get angry at you when you play BS. i have another question, here in my city there is a side bet which you gamble to get a pair. if you get a mix pair(red and black) like a 6 of diamonds and a 6 of spikes they pay 6 times your side bet. if you get a color pair(red and red or black and black) like a 6 of diamonds and a 6 of hearts they play 12 times your side bet and if your ge a perfect pair(the same card) like a 6 of diamonds and a 6 of diamonds they pay you 25 times your side bet. my question is it worth it?
Like most side bets, it’s quite expensive. The house edge in six decks on the paytable you describe is 5.47%.
My advice about side bets is very simple: Ignore them.
Are there further lessons that deal with alternative counting strategies? Im going to check anyway, just wanted to say thanks for systematizing what i already knew, looking forward to reading more
I just saw information, and a UTube snippet on “Speed Count”, where one only counts the plus cards (2-7) played during the hand, and then subtracts the number of hands played to get a running count. Of course, they recommend their system highly, claiming a 1% player advantage using the system. What are the betting increase levels? ( I presume since they use 2-7 like KO and REKO, one starts out at -2 x [number of hands] )
I have tried to use REKO. I keep up the count just fine at 2 deck games, but have difficulty maintaining count at 6-deck due to not wanting to merely sit and stare at cards throughout.
What’s the “review” of SpeedCount.
I am not a fan of Speed Count, unless you really feel that you are unable to manage anything more powerful. Speed Count is quite a bit weaker than KO or Hi-Lo, and when you are playing a six-deck game it really extends the number of hands you must play before you reach the fabled “long run”. My recommendation is keep working at maintaining the count using KO. I have a tough time believing the claimed 1% player edge using Speed Count, except under very good conditions and a large bet spread. KO and Hi-Lo can rarely achieve that level in practice, with 0.5% to 0.7% being a more typical edge in a six deck game. Does Speed Count work? Yes, but your edge will be smaller, and it will take more hands to reach a high likelihood of being ahead of the variance of the game.
Hi Ken,
I have your Advanced Card Set (which are very helpful and I would highly recommend to everyone). I am building a custom playing strategy in CVBJ for DD as I’ve been wanting to learn correct BS and Indices instead of the composite. Comparing the indices on your 2D, H17 card to the matrix you’ve linked above, I’m seeing several differences, are there certain rule assumptions in the two sets of indices that I’m overlooking?
Just looking at the top of hard total section for example (>> card index, link index)
8 vs 5 >> 3, 6
8 vs 6 >> 2, 3
9 vs 2 >> -1, 2
9 vs 3 >> 1, 0
9 vs 4 >> -3, -3 (same)
9 vs 5 >> -5, -4
10 vs 9 >> -2, -1
Thanks!
I have struggled with how to deal with the discrepancies between the GameMaster’s published index numbers and the ones I spent so many hours devising for the strategy cards. GM himself noted that he used risk-adverse index numbers, and that explains most of the differences, although not all. My choice to not risk-adjust my indexes is based on the fact that exceptionally few players bet near a Kelly fraction of their true bankroll. Even players who do make bet sizing calculations based on Kelly tend to use the amount of money they have on hand for gambling right now, with no consideration of future income streams. Of course, that does reduce risk of ruin, and I am definitely not saying that is a bad idea. But it does taint any risk-averse calculations that are based on the lower bankroll estimates. If you choose to use risk-averse numbers, then the appropriate index number literally depends on the size of your bet on that specific hand at the time, which seems ridiculous to have to consider. And it is not like risk-averse indexes can magically make the game far less risky. They have a very small effect, despite the considerable complexities they cause. I prefer (and use) straight index numbers, and comfortably know that I’m doing the right thing because I am not risking anywhere near a Kelly fraction of my bankroll anyway. (In that case, risk-averse and non-adjusted indexes are identical anyway!)
I mention the differences between his indexes and mine inside the lesson at https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-school/lesson-14-advanced-course-part-2/ .
But the discrepancies do make me uncomfortable, and they require a lot of explanation to readers. Witness this lengthy reply! Since I cannot get in touch with GameMaster to discuss a resolution, I have left things as they are so far. But, as time passes, I become more convinced that I should simply edit all of his index numbers so that they are consistent with mine. I spent hundreds of hours optimizing my numbers, and have a great deal of confidence in their utility. Generating index numbers is much more involved than most people realize. Each number is also dependent on the choice of index numbers further down the decision chain. That is, determining an accurate index for 14vT also depends on the values chosen for 15vT and 16vT, since those are among the possible outcomes for hitting 15vT. It is a lengthy recursive process. I don’t know what method GameMaster used to generate his numbers, but I doubt that his methodology was as careful as mine. For that reason, I completely recommend my values. If there is a difference, I say use my number.
The good news is that when the index differs by more than a point or two, that indicates a situation where the edge likely changes slowly as the count changes. That means the most contested numbers are likely those that matter the least, where a point or three won’t affect your results much at all. The truth is that if you were to use all of his numbers vs all of my numbers, the difference in expected results is small.
Thanks, Ken, for the very detailed response. Your last point is especially helpful in explaining the larger discrepancies which were particularly concerning/confusing to me.
So for 9 vs 2 >> – 1, 2 which has a large difference and crosses the +/- threshold, the edge changes slower and the basic strategy decision to ‘double’ (index -1) is close enough that after factoring in risk-aversion it would change the BS decision to ‘hit’ (as the index is >=2)?
On a side note, though I know the incremental expected value is small, are you able to provide or can I purchase your full index sets beyond -5 to 5 for the six sets of rules if you have them?
During the iterative process of generating the indexes, I truncated the list to only -5 to +5 at each step of the process, so I do not have the outlying indexes. Wong’s Professional Blackjack has a wider range for shoe games in H17 and S17 if I recall correctly.
ok thanks, I’ve gone back to Professional Blackjack and found the wider index ranges for H17 & S17 shoe games.
One last question (at least for now!) on Double Deck. On your Adv Charts the index value for A,3 vs 4 = 1 for both H17 & S17. However the basic strategy action is Hit (S17) and Dbl (H17). I know this scenario is a close one but what’s the reason for the differences in basic strategy between H17 & S17 despite the same index.
Thanks!
Hi, I’m somewhat confused about the „european“ strategy (6 decks, S17, D9, DAS, NoSurr, NoPeek(!), no refund(!!) of split or double on dealers BJ) calculated by your engine. Although I understand that 11 vs. ten might run into a dealers BlackJack, it is still 15 ten’s for me to get 21 and only 4 aces for the dealer to reach a BJ (counted per deck). So why not DD on 11 vs. ten?
Next point is not splitting 8s against ten or ace. I can easily follow not to split 8s against A due to „a lot of ten’s around there“. But again, why not splitting that ugly 16 points against a dealers ten, who needs a „seldom“ ace to knock me out? Even more confusing: if 8s should not be splitted against ten, why should aces be splitted against ten?
Thanks for your support and…great website!
The short answer is: That’s just the way the numbers work out. Just trust the strategy.
But I’m sure that is not a very satisfying answer for you. So, I’ll try to give you some more insight. What about doubling 11vT? You can’t just look at the likelihood of you drawing a ten versus the dealer drawing an Ace. Most of the time neither of those things will happen. The tricky part is comparing all the other possible outcomes. You’ll make money when you double 11vT, but it won’t be as much as you will make on average by just hitting. For one thing, when you double you give up the ability to draw more than one card. If you draw an Ace,2,3,4, or 5, you would like to be able to hit again, but you are not allowed to. All of those factors go into the calculations, and in a no hole card game you should not double 11vT. (In fact, in the S17 game you describe, you shouldn’t double 11vT even if the dealer did take a hole card!)
The other decisions have similarly complicated explanations. There are rarely easy answers for the “why” of basic strategy. The calculations take all the possible outcomes into account, and show you the most profitable (or more frequently, the least unprofitable!) way to play each decision.
Can you please clarify the index play on 6D H17 DAS: Hard 17 vs A where it says RS-5; and 8,8 vs A where it says RP-2.
Ken, years ago I counted using HiLo. I would like to start counting again recreationally when I go to Vegas or a day trip to AC. I am trying KO because there is no need to estimate the number of decks in the discard tray. But I find the the increased negative counts hard to deal with and it is easier to know when I have an advantage using HiLo and the betting table is easier to remember. What would you advise for a recreational player, put up with deck estimation or get over negative numbers and unintuitive betting strategies? How accurate do I need to be at deck estimation?
If mgm goes to $10.00 parking, and the price of gas stays where it’s at (below $3.00) and they keep pushing this 6/5 business, and union pressure in a RTW state, these high priced execs better start checking how far away the competion is.lol Not to mention a 20% rake and increase in food and room rates. Should help out the taxi business, but the indians and out of staters might get tired of that long drive for a 20$ hamburger at micky dees.
Greatly appreciate your website. Many thanks. Hit en once more.
Michael Shackleford, A.S.A., a professional actuary who has made a career of analyzing casino games, sees your statement as myth. He runs the numbers on new games for casinos and game developers and has helped design many of the popular slot machines on the Internet.
In his own words…….
“Unless you are a card counter, how other players play should not affect what you do. Basic strategy players should stick to the basic strategy no matter how badly the other players play. Other players are just as likely to help you as hurt you. In the end, it makes no difference how they play.”
“In ten years of running this site I steadfastly denied the myth that bad players cause other players to lose in blackjack. However, you are the lucky 1000th person to ask, so I took the trouble to prove it by random simulation. The rules I put in are the standard liberal Vegas Strip rules as follows.
6 decks
Dealer stands on soft 17
Double on any first two cards allowed
Double after split allowed
Late surrender allowed
Player may re-split to four hands, including aces
Cut card used
First, I had both players follow correct total-dependent basic strategy. Over almost 1.6 billion rounds, the loss of the first player to act was 0.289%, and the second player to act of 0.288%.
Second, I had the first player follow the same correct strategy, and the second player follow the same correct strategy except:
Always hit 12 to 16
Always double 9 to 11
Split any pair
Never surrender
Never soft double
In a simulation of 1.05 billion hands the loss of the first player was 0.282%, and the second player was 11.260%. So the house edge of the basic strategy playing first player was almost the same, regardless of whether the second player played correctly or wildly incorrectly. I hope this puts and end the third baseman myth, but I doubt it. As I have said many times, the more ridiculous a belief is, the more tenaciously it tends to be held.”
Just as much odds of bad play ending in a positive outcome (Take the 5, leave a bust card)
Not true, Black Jack is a game of 2 no more no less. It’s you and the dealer. Whatever anyone else does, shouldn’t affect you. Unless you were counting.
Since the Strategy Engine does not have an option for “Early Surrender, but not against Ace” (yet!), you have to mix and match the charts.
Here is the strategy for 6D, H17, ES, No Hole Card: https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-basic-strategy-engine/?numdecks=6&soft17=h17&dbl=all&das=yes&surr=es&peek=no
Ignore the advice to surrender against an Ace, since it is not allowed. (Or you can create a second chart with No Surrender and use the Ace column from that.)
For your specific questions: The dealer has a 10 card, there is no hole card, and you are allowed to surrender…
You should surrender the following hands (as seen on the linked chart above):
(7,7) vs Ten
(8,8) vs Ten
Hard 14 vs Ten
Hard 15 vs Ten
Hard 16 vs Ten
Also, Hard 16 vs 9.