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Ken, years ago I counted using HiLo. I would like to start counting again recreationally when I go to Vegas or a day trip to AC. I am trying KO because there is no need to estimate the number of decks in the discard tray. But I find the the increased negative counts hard to deal with and it is easier to know when I have an advantage using HiLo and the betting table is easier to remember. What would you advise for a recreational player, put up with deck estimation or get over negative numbers and unintuitive betting strategies? How accurate do I need to be at deck estimation?
KO really does perform favorably compared to Hi-Lo, so I think it is a very reasonable choice. Most people who choose KO end up adjusting the starting count and the key numbers up by enough to eliminate most of the negative running counts. That is a good plan.
Even so, I always personally preferred balanced counts despite the need to convert to a true count. With KO, you really can’t reliably know how big your edge is, just whether you have an edge or not. That bothered me, although the sims confirm it’s not a big deal. While deck estimation accuracy does matter, you will be fine if your accuracy is pretty reliable to one deck.
If mgm goes to $10.00 parking, and the price of gas stays where it’s at (below $3.00) and they keep pushing this 6/5 business, and union pressure in a RTW state, these high priced execs better start checking how far away the competion is.lol Not to mention a 20% rake and increase in food and room rates. Should help out the taxi business, but the indians and out of staters might get tired of that long drive for a 20$ hamburger at micky dees.
First MLife stopped table game express comp earning, and now they plan to charge for parking. Vegas is becoming a far different place. Once Vegas casinos’ non-gaming revenue eclipsed gaming revenue, we could have seen this trend coming.
Basic strategy is to stand with 13v2. But as the index numbers above indicate, you should hit this hand if the true count is -2 or worse. Stand at -1 or better, which matches basic strategy.
Hello, I want to ask about the true count, after a round has been done, for example we have a +6 running count and 3 decks haven’t been played, the true count is +2 . But when we start a new round, where shoulld I start counting? From 0 again or continue the +6 running count that I have before? Thank you
very much
Yes, you should still split Aces. The rule you describe is used in almost all casinos. Blackjack is only possible on the first two cards, not after splitting. If you draw a ten to a split ace, the hand is just a normal 21, and does not get paid 3:2. In addition, when splitting Aces you will be dealt only one card on each hand. (Some casinos allow resplitting if that card is another Ace.) Even with these restrictions, splitting Aces is still the correct play.
Great site for practicing “best odds plays” for all situations. However, there seems to be a flaw in the Strategy Coach. I played 6-deck, H17, Late Surrender. Contrary to the correct recommendations on the Strategy Engine, the Coach kept telling me to surrender when I faced a dealer Ace when I had hard counts of 12, 13, and 14.
I’ll bet you had the trainer inadvertently set to Early Surrender instead of Late Surrender. Just to be sure, I checked the game. With late surrender enabled, I had 13vA, and the coach correctly said Hit.
There are quite a few online casinos that deal live games. Unfortunately, as far as I know none are yet available in the two US states where online casinos are legal (Delaware and New Jersey). I did try these kinds of games years ago, before the law changed in 2006. At that time, they were painfully slow, likely under 30 hands an hour. I can’t participate now, but I hope they improved the speed. You should be able to watch and see how the shuffle is handled, and how deeply the games are dealt to decide whether it is worth the trouble.
I agree with Shack on his final verdict… The third baseman myth won’t ever be dispelled, facts be damned. Some people just need a scapegoat for their losses.
It’s just a close call, and the optimal basic strategy happens to change between S17 and H17. Yet the index numbers round to the same value. Just another of the subtleties that emerge from the game.
Sure…
With Hard 17vs Ace, surrender if you can. If you cannot surrender, the “stand” index is -5, meaning stand if the true count is -5 or better. Only when the true count is worse than -5 should you hit.
With 88vAce, surrender if you can. If you cannot surrender, the “split” index is -2. Split if the true count is -2 or better. If the true count is -3 or worse, you should hit instead of stand.
Michael Shackleford, A.S.A., a professional actuary who has made a career of analyzing casino games, sees your statement as myth. He runs the numbers on new games for casinos and game developers and has helped design many of the popular slot machines on the Internet.
In his own words…….
“Unless you are a card counter, how other players play should not affect what you do. Basic strategy players should stick to the basic strategy no matter how badly the other players play. Other players are just as likely to help you as hurt you. In the end, it makes no difference how they play.”
“In ten years of running this site I steadfastly denied the myth that bad players cause other players to lose in blackjack. However, you are the lucky 1000th person to ask, so I took the trouble to prove it by random simulation. The rules I put in are the standard liberal Vegas Strip rules as follows.
6 decks
Dealer stands on soft 17
Double on any first two cards allowed
Double after split allowed
Late surrender allowed
Player may re-split to four hands, including aces
Cut card used
First, I had both players follow correct total-dependent basic strategy. Over almost 1.6 billion rounds, the loss of the first player to act was 0.289%, and the second player to act of 0.288%.
Second, I had the first player follow the same correct strategy, and the second player follow the same correct strategy except:
Always hit 12 to 16
Always double 9 to 11
Split any pair
Never surrender
Never soft double
In a simulation of 1.05 billion hands the loss of the first player was 0.282%, and the second player was 11.260%. So the house edge of the basic strategy playing first player was almost the same, regardless of whether the second player played correctly or wildly incorrectly. I hope this puts and end the third baseman myth, but I doubt it. As I have said many times, the more ridiculous a belief is, the more tenaciously it tends to be held.”
Ken, years ago I counted using HiLo. I would like to start counting again recreationally when I go to Vegas or a day trip to AC. I am trying KO because there is no need to estimate the number of decks in the discard tray. But I find the the increased negative counts hard to deal with and it is easier to know when I have an advantage using HiLo and the betting table is easier to remember. What would you advise for a recreational player, put up with deck estimation or get over negative numbers and unintuitive betting strategies? How accurate do I need to be at deck estimation?
KO really does perform favorably compared to Hi-Lo, so I think it is a very reasonable choice. Most people who choose KO end up adjusting the starting count and the key numbers up by enough to eliminate most of the negative running counts. That is a good plan.
Even so, I always personally preferred balanced counts despite the need to convert to a true count. With KO, you really can’t reliably know how big your edge is, just whether you have an edge or not. That bothered me, although the sims confirm it’s not a big deal. While deck estimation accuracy does matter, you will be fine if your accuracy is pretty reliable to one deck.
If mgm goes to $10.00 parking, and the price of gas stays where it’s at (below $3.00) and they keep pushing this 6/5 business, and union pressure in a RTW state, these high priced execs better start checking how far away the competion is.lol Not to mention a 20% rake and increase in food and room rates. Should help out the taxi business, but the indians and out of staters might get tired of that long drive for a 20$ hamburger at micky dees.
First MLife stopped table game express comp earning, and now they plan to charge for parking. Vegas is becoming a far different place. Once Vegas casinos’ non-gaming revenue eclipsed gaming revenue, we could have seen this trend coming.
Greatly appreciate your website. Many thanks. Hit en once more.
Hi,
Quick question, I thought you were always supposed to stand 13v2?
thanks
Basic strategy is to stand with 13v2. But as the index numbers above indicate, you should hit this hand if the true count is -2 or worse. Stand at -1 or better, which matches basic strategy.
Hello, I want to ask about the true count, after a round has been done, for example we have a +6 running count and 3 decks haven’t been played, the true count is +2 . But when we start a new round, where shoulld I start counting? From 0 again or continue the +6 running count that I have before? Thank you
very much
Maintain the running count until the dealer shuffles, carrying it forward from hand to hand. When the dealer shuffles, start over at zero.
If the casino does not pay out 3 to 2 for blackjack after splitting Aces, do we still proceed to split ace pair?
Yes, you should still split Aces. The rule you describe is used in almost all casinos. Blackjack is only possible on the first two cards, not after splitting. If you draw a ten to a split ace, the hand is just a normal 21, and does not get paid 3:2. In addition, when splitting Aces you will be dealt only one card on each hand. (Some casinos allow resplitting if that card is another Ace.) Even with these restrictions, splitting Aces is still the correct play.
Great site for practicing “best odds plays” for all situations. However, there seems to be a flaw in the Strategy Coach. I played 6-deck, H17, Late Surrender. Contrary to the correct recommendations on the Strategy Engine, the Coach kept telling me to surrender when I faced a dealer Ace when I had hard counts of 12, 13, and 14.
I’ll bet you had the trainer inadvertently set to Early Surrender instead of Late Surrender. Just to be sure, I checked the game. With late surrender enabled, I had 13vA, and the coach correctly said Hit.
There are quite a few online casinos that deal live games. Unfortunately, as far as I know none are yet available in the two US states where online casinos are legal (Delaware and New Jersey). I did try these kinds of games years ago, before the law changed in 2006. At that time, they were painfully slow, likely under 30 hands an hour. I can’t participate now, but I hope they improved the speed. You should be able to watch and see how the shuffle is handled, and how deeply the games are dealt to decide whether it is worth the trouble.
can you please look at betfair online live casino i don t think they have a shuffling machine is.is there good to play pls take a look
I agree with Shack on his final verdict… The third baseman myth won’t ever be dispelled, facts be damned. Some people just need a scapegoat for their losses.
It’s just a close call, and the optimal basic strategy happens to change between S17 and H17. Yet the index numbers round to the same value. Just another of the subtleties that emerge from the game.
That makes a lot of sense now. Thank you for your quick response.
Sure…
With Hard 17vs Ace, surrender if you can. If you cannot surrender, the “stand” index is -5, meaning stand if the true count is -5 or better. Only when the true count is worse than -5 should you hit.
With 88vAce, surrender if you can. If you cannot surrender, the “split” index is -2. Split if the true count is -2 or better. If the true count is -3 or worse, you should hit instead of stand.
Michael Shackleford, A.S.A., a professional actuary who has made a career of analyzing casino games, sees your statement as myth. He runs the numbers on new games for casinos and game developers and has helped design many of the popular slot machines on the Internet.
In his own words…….
“Unless you are a card counter, how other players play should not affect what you do. Basic strategy players should stick to the basic strategy no matter how badly the other players play. Other players are just as likely to help you as hurt you. In the end, it makes no difference how they play.”
“In ten years of running this site I steadfastly denied the myth that bad players cause other players to lose in blackjack. However, you are the lucky 1000th person to ask, so I took the trouble to prove it by random simulation. The rules I put in are the standard liberal Vegas Strip rules as follows.
6 decks
Dealer stands on soft 17
Double on any first two cards allowed
Double after split allowed
Late surrender allowed
Player may re-split to four hands, including aces
Cut card used
First, I had both players follow correct total-dependent basic strategy. Over almost 1.6 billion rounds, the loss of the first player to act was 0.289%, and the second player to act of 0.288%.
Second, I had the first player follow the same correct strategy, and the second player follow the same correct strategy except:
Always hit 12 to 16
Always double 9 to 11
Split any pair
Never surrender
Never soft double
In a simulation of 1.05 billion hands the loss of the first player was 0.282%, and the second player was 11.260%. So the house edge of the basic strategy playing first player was almost the same, regardless of whether the second player played correctly or wildly incorrectly. I hope this puts and end the third baseman myth, but I doubt it. As I have said many times, the more ridiculous a belief is, the more tenaciously it tends to be held.”