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Basic strategy is, by definition, the mathematically best way to play each decision absent further information about the composition of the remaining decks. It applies whether you are playing heads-up or at a table full of players.
but what if for example i have a 14 against an 8 and there have been three low cards in a row, you know there is gonna appear a 10 so i am going to burst, but BS tells me to Hit. Should i still hit??
The thing is, you DON’T know that the next card is a ten. There is no magic card god that makes sure that a fourth low card cannot come out after the three before it. Is it less likely than if those other small cards had not been dealt? Yes, because you have used up the 3 small cards. But be clear here: It is NOT because they happened to all appear in a row just now. With 14v8, there is simply no circumstance where you should stand. Just hit it.
For closer calls, card counters can use information about the remaining deck to sometimes correctly deviate from basic strategy. But virtually all beginning players overestimate how often this is appropriate. Almost all hands should be played with basic strategy, even if you are counting cards.
hey, but what if the true count is +3 and i have a 14 against an 8. im the last one in the table and there has appeared 5 low cards in a row, i know that there is gonna appear a 10, if i hit it im gonna burst but if i dont hit it im gonna lose, in that case the smartest to do is to surrender, right? or be a suicidal bomber playing blackjack?? Another thing, yesterday at the casino some people got mad at me and insultated me because i got a 13 against a 10(i was the last one at the table) and it had appeared 4 high cards in a row, i knew a low card was coming, probably a 5 or 6 that would leave the house in 15 or 16 and would probably burst. but i followed the BS and i got the 6, that leaved me at 19. for a surprise then the house made 20. if wouldnt have hit it, everyone would have won, instead everybody got mad at me. what should i do if i feel and probably know that theres gonna appear a low card? i feel and i know it, and it happened. please help, i dont get insulted again, i live in a third world country and people that go to the casinos are dangerous, maybe im gonna get in trouble
You say “I know that there is gonna appear a 10”. No, you don’t. There are still lots of small cards left in the shoe. There is no magic that says just because 5 low cards in a row have come out that the next card is going to be a ten. Just hit it. There is no time when you should stand with 14v8.
As for other players getting mad because you played correctly, there’s not much you can do about it. Maybe try not to sit at third base, where most of the anger gets focused based on whatever happens with the dealer. But don’t play badly just to satisfy someone else’s idea of how to play.
Based on your IP, it looks like you are in Colombia. I was in Medellin a few weeks ago. Wow! What a beautiful and amazing place. I loved it!
The difference is that you must draw a card to your total of 9, whether you double or not. Standing is not an option. With A8 instead, you already have a completed solid hand of 19.
I’m playing in a on line live casino. It is an european style, 8 decks, 80% penetration, S17, double only in 9, 10 and 11. Split only once. Double after split is not allowed. You can hit after split Aces. I type this data in the MGP’s software and the advantage is -0,63. Is it beatable if I play with TC>1?
Each point of true count is worth about 0.5%. So at a TC +1, the game is still negative at about -0.13%. If you were to play only at TC +1 or better, the good counts would be enough to offset the small losses that occur when the true count is exactly +1. So the answer to your question is yes, you could create a small edge by even flat-betting this game by playing only when the true count is +1 or better. If you spread your bets in higher counts, obviously you can improve your results a lot.
My information is a little dated, as I have had little reason to be in the area in the last year or so. The games were OK, but nothing special. Both Harrahs and Boomtown had 2-deck games, but they deal one deck at most. Treasure Chest had the best six-deck penetration, but only at 75%.
Hi, can please anyone help me with an answer. Do casinos now change the deck of cards after every game or not? Because I heard lot of people saying that now it is impossible to memorise cards that are still in the game. But I am not sure if this is due to change or because casino use so many decks at once (I read above that there are 8 decks in the game)
I think what you are trying to describe are continuous shuffle machines (CSMs), which allow the dealer to put the discards back into the machine immediately instead of waiting until the shuffled shoe is completed. The use of a CSM does eliminate the ability to count cards. Fortunately, there are still plenty of games available in most areas that do not use CSMs. As for “memorizing” cards that are still left to be dealt, that is not necessary. Card counting allows you to use a much simpler system of just maintaining a single number (the running count), that reflects whether the remaining cards are biased towards high cards or low cards. No need to memorize anything.
That was the most Spot-On address of a complete Tool I’ve had the pleasure of setting my eyes on. For Michael to be so full of himself and yet be so victimized must be the ultimate in internal conflict. Well said, Blackjack.
Against the UK no-hole-card game, do not put more money on the tables against a dealer ten or Ace, with one exception. Still split Aces against a dealer ten. My Strategy Engine with the “No Peek” setting will show you the correct strategy.
It’s often difficult to show a specific reason for the basic strategy of a particular hand. In this case, you’ll just win very slightly more by splitting (and making any possible resplits or double downs), than if you just hit the 44v6 hand. You really can’t just use probability of win charts unless you take into account all the downstream possibilities, and also the percentage chance of a push on any of the multiple hands. It’s complicated to figure manually, which is why combinatorial analysis software is used to determine the optimal strategy.
First, 88vT in UK rules is not a split, because of the risk that a dealer blackjack could wipe out all your multiple bets.
But I’ll answer your real question assuming that the circumstance at hand is an appropriate split… Mathematically yes, you should continue to split as long as that is the correct strategy. But it is not unreasonable to decide at some point that the risk is too high. If you are concerned about the session bankroll, it is not terribly expensive to decide to limit your exposure on a single hand. In my opinion, you should always be willing to put at least four bets at risk on a hand. If you’re not comfortable with that, your bankroll is not big enough. But beyond four bets, use your discretion.
Hi Ken, I play the UK casinos and I too have no problem Wongin in but I have ‘respected’ the environment more now and will play through a moderately negatively shoe. However last month I played in continental Europe and after 15 minutes I was told I either play or go away. Later in the week, a player synchronised his bets with mine and also played deviations. We got chatting after and it didn’t go unnoticed that he attracted a lot of heat. He was informed his play was no longer welcome and we think it was because he was moving from table to table.
i dont understand, is the BS always used or just when playing alone against the house, and if so, why???
when im studying BS i see suicidal hands
Basic strategy is, by definition, the mathematically best way to play each decision absent further information about the composition of the remaining decks. It applies whether you are playing heads-up or at a table full of players.
but what if for example i have a 14 against an 8 and there have been three low cards in a row, you know there is gonna appear a 10 so i am going to burst, but BS tells me to Hit. Should i still hit??
The thing is, you DON’T know that the next card is a ten. There is no magic card god that makes sure that a fourth low card cannot come out after the three before it. Is it less likely than if those other small cards had not been dealt? Yes, because you have used up the 3 small cards. But be clear here: It is NOT because they happened to all appear in a row just now. With 14v8, there is simply no circumstance where you should stand. Just hit it.
For closer calls, card counters can use information about the remaining deck to sometimes correctly deviate from basic strategy. But virtually all beginning players overestimate how often this is appropriate. Almost all hands should be played with basic strategy, even if you are counting cards.
hey, but what if the true count is +3 and i have a 14 against an 8. im the last one in the table and there has appeared 5 low cards in a row, i know that there is gonna appear a 10, if i hit it im gonna burst but if i dont hit it im gonna lose, in that case the smartest to do is to surrender, right? or be a suicidal bomber playing blackjack??
Another thing, yesterday at the casino some people got mad at me and insultated me because i got a 13 against a 10(i was the last one at the table) and it had appeared 4 high cards in a row, i knew a low card was coming, probably a 5 or 6 that would leave the house in 15 or 16 and would probably burst. but i followed the BS and i got the 6, that leaved me at 19. for a surprise then the house made 20. if wouldnt have hit it, everyone would have won, instead everybody got mad at me. what should i do if i feel and probably know that theres gonna appear a low card? i feel and i know it, and it happened. please help, i dont get insulted again, i live in a third world country and people that go to the casinos are dangerous, maybe im gonna get in trouble
You say “I know that there is gonna appear a 10”. No, you don’t. There are still lots of small cards left in the shoe. There is no magic that says just because 5 low cards in a row have come out that the next card is going to be a ten. Just hit it. There is no time when you should stand with 14v8.
As for other players getting mad because you played correctly, there’s not much you can do about it. Maybe try not to sit at third base, where most of the anger gets focused based on whatever happens with the dealer. But don’t play badly just to satisfy someone else’s idea of how to play.
Based on your IP, it looks like you are in Colombia. I was in Medellin a few weeks ago. Wow! What a beautiful and amazing place. I loved it!
Hi, Ken,
My question is: Whay you double down at 9 against a 4 or 5 and you don’t at A,8, since I have the same a total of 9 ?
The difference is that you must draw a card to your total of 9, whether you double or not. Standing is not an option. With A8 instead, you already have a completed solid hand of 19.
Hi, Ken
I’m playing in a on line live casino. It is an european style, 8 decks, 80% penetration, S17, double only in 9, 10 and 11. Split only once. Double after split is not allowed. You can hit after split Aces. I type this data in the MGP’s software and the advantage is -0,63. Is it beatable if I play with TC>1?
Each point of true count is worth about 0.5%. So at a TC +1, the game is still negative at about -0.13%. If you were to play only at TC +1 or better, the good counts would be enough to offset the small losses that occur when the true count is exactly +1. So the answer to your question is yes, you could create a small edge by even flat-betting this game by playing only when the true count is +1 or better. If you spread your bets in higher counts, obviously you can improve your results a lot.
Decent games in new Orleans ?
My information is a little dated, as I have had little reason to be in the area in the last year or so. The games were OK, but nothing special. Both Harrahs and Boomtown had 2-deck games, but they deal one deck at most. Treasure Chest had the best six-deck penetration, but only at 75%.
Hi, can please anyone help me with an answer. Do casinos now change the deck of cards after every game or not? Because I heard lot of people saying that now it is impossible to memorise cards that are still in the game. But I am not sure if this is due to change or because casino use so many decks at once (I read above that there are 8 decks in the game)
I think what you are trying to describe are continuous shuffle machines (CSMs), which allow the dealer to put the discards back into the machine immediately instead of waiting until the shuffled shoe is completed. The use of a CSM does eliminate the ability to count cards. Fortunately, there are still plenty of games available in most areas that do not use CSMs.
As for “memorizing” cards that are still left to be dealt, that is not necessary. Card counting allows you to use a much simpler system of just maintaining a single number (the running count), that reflects whether the remaining cards are biased towards high cards or low cards. No need to memorize anything.
Do your own scouting.
That was the most Spot-On address of a complete Tool I’ve had the pleasure of setting my eyes on. For Michael to be so full of himself and yet be so victimized must be the ultimate in internal conflict. Well said, Blackjack.
Against the UK no-hole-card game, do not put more money on the tables against a dealer ten or Ace, with one exception. Still split Aces against a dealer ten. My Strategy Engine with the “No Peek” setting will show you the correct strategy.
It’s often difficult to show a specific reason for the basic strategy of a particular hand. In this case, you’ll just win very slightly more by splitting (and making any possible resplits or double downs), than if you just hit the 44v6 hand. You really can’t just use probability of win charts unless you take into account all the downstream possibilities, and also the percentage chance of a push on any of the multiple hands. It’s complicated to figure manually, which is why combinatorial analysis software is used to determine the optimal strategy.
First, 88vT in UK rules is not a split, because of the risk that a dealer blackjack could wipe out all your multiple bets.
But I’ll answer your real question assuming that the circumstance at hand is an appropriate split…
Mathematically yes, you should continue to split as long as that is the correct strategy. But it is not unreasonable to decide at some point that the risk is too high. If you are concerned about the session bankroll, it is not terribly expensive to decide to limit your exposure on a single hand. In my opinion, you should always be willing to put at least four bets at risk on a hand. If you’re not comfortable with that, your bankroll is not big enough. But beyond four bets, use your discretion.
Hi Ken, I play the UK casinos and I too have no problem Wongin in but I have ‘respected’ the environment more now and will play through a moderately negatively shoe. However last month I played in continental Europe and after 15 minutes I was told I either play or go away. Later in the week, a player synchronised his bets with mine and also played deviations. We got chatting after and it didn’t go unnoticed that he attracted a lot of heat. He was informed his play was no longer welcome and we think it was because he was moving from table to table.